Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

The_Conductor

neutral guy wrote: »

I think we will see heavily taxed land lords and more support for those who pay rents.
For that reason more and more land lords will leave renting business.
We have understand that poverty will rising and the government will have less and less money fight against it.
The heavily property taxation is also on way,many councils will have survive because many businisses does not pay rates
I think after budget 2021 people will stop believe in bright future of property in Ireland.

Rental income is already highly taxed.
There is no money to subsidise renters- the kitty is bare.
Poverty will rise- we will be forced to reduce our social welfare nets- as they will be simply unaffordable.
Personal taxation- is already at punitive levels- lots of people deliberately take benefit in kind instead of working additional hours (unpaid leave etc) to manipulate their income for tax purposes- you hit >50% tax (incl. PRSI and USC) on as little as 35k- this is not sustainable.
Government expenditure is going to crater- yet again.
Proper property and local taxes will have to be introduced- akin to the poll tax in the UK (alongside property tax itself)- to pay for all the services, facilities and amenities that are no longer going to be covered by central funding.

I think the lions share of the heavy lifting is going to come from reduced expenditure rather than increased taxation- as our taxation regime is already at punitive levels.

The_Conductor

neutral guy wrote: »

Some of us waiting with horror what gonna happen when wage subsidies and mortgage holidays will be ended.

They're going to end- because they are unaffordable, full stop.
As you yourself have pointed out- many people are making the most out of the current lull in the situation to get whatever they can get done- thats likely to vanish in a puff of smoke as soon as the retrenchment starts in earnest.

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

I work in carpentry/cabinet making and many of us does not see any recession we are Mad busy.
I do research with our customers and what is really surprised me the all has the same opinions
1) We bought house because it was our last chance before we will lose jobs
2) We bought kitchen because we are on mortgage holidays
About investors with money
Some of them good investors in bitcoin but they has no understanding about investment to property
Some still believe that buying house is better than buy gold and inflation on way
Some do IT jobs and does not know what is going on in reality because they live in parallel world
Some made money on stock market because acces to invest on it the same like in USA before Great Depression and which is historicaly high position at the moment
Some just emotional and still believe media
I heard that Covid news gonna be reduced in media to create more positive people thinking.But how this gonna help when there is sign about masks on every shop door I dont know.
Any way many of as in carpentry has own opinions as well
Some believe that nothing gonna happen because they are busy as never before
Some of us waiting with horror what gonna happen when wage subsidies and mortgage holidays will be ended.

Are you still going to buy the derelict house, do it up with some plywood and live happily ever after? I’m sure your “ customers” freely share so much information with you. Covid news will be reduced? Who told you that? Do you really think people believe the sh*te your coming out with?

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

Are you still going to buy the derelict house, do it up with some plywood and live happily ever after? I’m sure your “ customers” freely share so much information with you. Covid news will be reduced? Who told you that? Do you really think people believe the sh*te your coming out with?

Yes,I do.Because it only what I could afford at the moment and it is only price I can pay.
At the moment I do 2 jobs at the moment,I wake up at 6AM and go to bed at 11PM.
I will Never pay asking price at the moment and I will continue saving waiting until prices will fall.
17/7 without days of in last last 6 years ( with some exceptions for sure ).
And it will be cash sale with life without mortgage ( some exceptions could be made ).

Sierra Oscar

Interesting to see the Chairman of the Federal Reserve basically confirming what many people have suspected - i.e. interest rates will remain at rock bottom for years. Highly unlikely that this trend will remain confined to the US. It's hard to see how this won't have anything but an inflationary impact on property prices. Investors are likely to continue to look to property as a solid medium to long term bet when it comes to growing their asset value. They won't be putting their money in savings, that's for sure. Positive news for current mortgage holders, maybe not so much for those looking to buy.

CNBC - Powell says duration of low interest rates ‘will be measured in years’

Interest rates are likely to stay low for years as the economy fights its way back from the coronavirus pandemic, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said in remarks published Friday afternoon.

Bubbaclaus

neutral guy wrote: »

Yes,I do.Because it only what I could afford at the moment and it is only price I can pay.
At the moment I do 2 jobs at the moment,I wake up at 6AM and go to bed at 11PM.
I will Never pay asking price at the moment and I will continue saving waiting until prices will fall.
17/7 without days of in last last 6 years ( with some exceptions for sure ).
And it will be cash sale with life without mortgage ( some exceptions could be made ).

You are on boards an awful lot for a man supposedly working very hard in 2 jobs.

PropQueries

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Interesting to see the Chairman of the Federal Reserve basically confirming what many people have suspected - i.e. interest rates will remain at rock bottom for years. Highly unlikely that this trend will remain confined to the US. It's hard to see how this won't have anything but an inflationary impact on property prices. Investors are likely to continue to look to property as a solid medium to long term bet when it comes to growing their asset value. They won't be putting their money in savings, that's for sure. Positive news for current mortgage holders, maybe not so much for those looking to buy.

CNBC - Powell says duration of low interest rates ‘will be measured in years’

Maybe. But as interest rates are already at zero, doesn't that mean any value in a property that is attributable to interest rates has already been most likely fully priced in?

The FT reported this week that the "Bundesbank chief calls for scaling-back of crisis aid".

The Germans appear to getting more and more concerned about their looming pension crisis than helping out the 5 or 6 eurozone countries who have a sovereign debt problem out of a total of 19 eurozone member countries, the majority of which don't really have a sovereign debt problem.

I think many people mistake the sovereign debt problems in the USA, UK and western europe with all countries in the eurozone, the majority of whom don't have a debt problem. It's not really a sovereign debt problem in the USA, UK or Japan as they have their own currencies and can print at will.

I believe the ECB will come under increasing pressure (especially from the Germans and other eurozone countries who don't have a sovereign debt problem) to raise interest rates sooner rather than later.

If the low interest rates and money printing over the past 10 years hasn't managed to get inflation off the ground, the ECB (with some gentle persuasion from the Germans etc.), may come to the conclusion that we've entered a different long-term trend and any attempts to get inflation off the ground will fail. They may then just decide to raise interest rates to at least solve one looming problem i.e. the pension crisis which is going to hit Germany many years ahead of most other eurozone economies.

Link to FT article is here: https://www.ft.com/content/1d38cfe1-b7c3-4e71-b527-970c4d6138a2

WeeCuppaCha

Shane Fleming’s prediction for the property market post Covid. The lag effect is interesting. Overall, he predicts falls 10-20%, up to 30% in some sectors.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=cT38uQNQdmM

Mic 1972

WeeCuppaCha wrote: »

Shane Fleming’s prediction for the property market post Covid. The lag effect is interesting. Overall, he predicts falls 10-20%, up to 30% in some sectors.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=cT38uQNQdmM

Very interesting. But he def has a vested interest in encouraging people to put their property on the market because currently a lot of people are not selling.

He also mentioned asking price increase of 4% between June and August bringing prices back to January/February prior to Covid and also he is saying that this is a good time to sell.

OwlsZat

Buddy who's a doctor at a Dublin hospital was told yesterday no more overtime is being paid. The HSE finally being called into line for financial mismanagement or another sign of the start of the downturn?

thomasdylan

OwlsZat wrote: »

Buddy who's a doctor at a Dublin hospital was told yesterday no more overtime is being paid. The HSE finally being called into line for financial mismanagement or another sign of the start of the downturn?

HSE hospitals send an email about overtime every so often. This isn't anything new. The emails are usually directed at Interns and SHOs. And there's always a subsequent climbdown from hospital management.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30821583.html
https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-30821692.html

Unrostered overtime will still be paid. Hospitals can't run without NCHDs doing overtime.

Mic 1972

WeeCuppaCha wrote: »

Shane Fleming’s prediction for the property market post Covid. The lag effect is interesting. Overall, he predicts falls 10-20%, up to 30% in some sectors.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=cT38uQNQdmM

This is his prediction from 4 months ago
He predicted a 20% drop by end of Q1 2021 (at minute 10:20), which clearly isn't happening
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w22ouQR6CF4

No ones has a clue

hometruths

Mic 1972 wrote: »

This is his prediction from 4 months ago
He predicted a 20% drop by end of Q1 2021 (at minute 10:20), which clearly isn't happening
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w22ouQR6CF4

No ones has a clue

In fairness we are still long way from end of Q1 2021.

And back in April nobody would have imagined that the government would still be prepared to keep up the covid wage subsidies until end of Q1 2021.

wassie

OwlsZat wrote: »

Buddy who's a doctor at a Dublin hospital was told yesterday no more overtime is being paid. The HSE finally being called into line for financial mismanagement or another sign of the start of the downturn?

Doctors being told no more overtime....time to convert my pension to cash.:P

That being said, I think its fair to say the down turn is already underway.

sanfranbest

WeeCuppaCha wrote: »

Shane Fleming’s prediction for the property market post Covid. The lag effect is interesting. Overall, he predicts falls 10-20%, up to 30% in some sectors.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=cT38uQNQdmM

And he said he just bought a fixer upper in Portobello, if he thinks prices will fall, why did buy now???

The_Conductor

sanfranbest wrote: »

And he said he just bought a fixer upper in Portobello, if he thinks prices will fall, why did buy now???

Sure even if he was fired- he could live there for the next decade without paying a penny on his mortgage- before he was eventually forced to sell.

Pelezico

The_Conductor wrote: »

Sure even if he was fired- he could live there for the next decade without paying a penny on his mortgage- before he was eventually forced to sell.

Owning a house in Ireland is truly a marvellous thing.

neutral guy

Pepper ceases lending to property investors citing Covid uncertainty

https://www.independent.ie/business/world/pepper-ceases-lending-to-property-investors-citing-covid-uncertainty-39504517.html

beauf

I've read that it's commercial property though that article is a little more vague for some reason.

soirish

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjune2020/

The market is still going strong.

Bubbaclaus

soirish wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexjune2020/

The market is still going strong.

Transactions completed in June would have been agreed several months earlier and pre Covid for the most part.

OwlsZat

I think this month should be telling. COVID payments reducing. Morgagae hols over and redundancies now need to be taken.

fliball123

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Transactions completed in June would have been agreed several months earlier and pre Covid for the most part.

Maybe but it also gave those people time to reflect who were buying and most of felt confident enough to purchase even with the pandemic

WeeCuppaCha

sanfranbest wrote: »

And he said he just bought a fixer upper in Portobello, if he thinks prices will fall, why did buy now???

I think that he said he felt the house he bought represented good value at current price. Similar to my own situation, while I expect prices to drop, it won’t deter me from buying now if I feel it’s well priced and suits my needs in the here and now. The house I might consider perfect, will be gone, price drops or no.

Again, I do expect prices to fall. I am also a realist and understand this will take time. Unfortunately, time is not on my side due to age and term of mortgage available to me. So yeah, I can totally see why he bought now. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush...

combat14

Sounds like PCP for builders provided by the government aka tax payers to keep over priced houses on the go .. really does sound like writing is on the wall for the property market if this is what building industry are requesting at the moment ..


Builders propose €85k loan boost for first-time buyers

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/builders-propose-85k-loan-boost-for-first-time-buyers-39506685.html

OwlsZat

combat14 wrote: »

Sounds like PCP for builders provided by the government aka tax payers to keep over priced houses on the go .. really does sound like writing is on the wall for the property market if this is what building industry are requesting at the moment ..

Builders propose €85k loan boost for first-time buyers

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/builders-propose-85k-loan-boost-for-first-time-buyers-39506685.html

Amazing how when market forces drive prices upwards it's all good but when the prices are heading south it's becomes an emergency the tax payer has to jump into. Obviously the price of building should be reduced.

neutral guy

combat14 wrote: »

Sounds like PCP for builders provided by the government aka tax payers to keep over priced houses on the go .. really does sound like writing is on the wall for the property market if this is what building industry are requesting at the moment ..


Builders propose €85k loan boost for first-time buyers

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/builders-propose-85k-loan-boost-for-first-time-buyers-39506685.html

This movements shows that builders lobby try put pressure on government
Government agree to accept that preassure because building industry and Property market is nearly dead.
Anyway if this goes forward then it show that property are overpriced/market stall and there is no buyers.
Ok,somebody will get 85K what is next ?
Give 150K who will continue not afford buy house even getting 85K ?
Why not to tell builders it is your problems with prices because you paid for sites too much ? Put prices down !
Why continue support market making prices less affordable for buyers ?
Why not crash the prices making more people with small incomes pay less for houses ?
All this shows there is less and less money in buyers pockets and it is no way property prices will rising in this situation.
Also who will pay again ? Tax payers ? To support builders profits ? Tax payers who will have pay bigger prices for houses ?

Smouse156

combat14 wrote: »

Sounds like PCP for builders provided by the government aka tax payers to keep over priced houses on the go .. really does sound like writing is on the wall for the property market if this is what building industry are requesting at the moment ..


Builders propose €85k loan boost for first-time buyers

https://amp.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/builders-propose-85k-loan-boost-for-first-time-buyers-39506685.html

Dear God, what a joke! Between that and The Brick Flynn proposing 4.5 income multiples, what will they come up with next?

https://www.irishtimes.com/1.4317824

Maybe they should just propose unlimited income multiples for everyone backed by the taxpayers so we can “bring back the good ole days of 2006”.

Considering most approved planning applications never get built, some form of a stick is much more needed that the carrots they propose

Sarn

The thing about such a scheme is that banks will just factor that loan amount into how much you can borrow, as that will influence the borrower’s ability to repay. The borrower will just get less from the bank.

awec

I am pretty sure that sort of scheme has existed in the UK for years.