Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Pelezico

Taylor365 wrote: »

That's a liability for anyone but big business.

Well, if so many are vacant, there is not a chance of a yield anywhere close to 4.5%. More like 2.8% if they are lucky.

After that comes insurance, maintenance, property tax.

Rents have to fall to fill the surplus of properties on the market.

Leozord

Highest surge in asking price since Q1 2017



More details in: https://www.myhome.ie/reports

By looking at it, this Q3 was the "best" this year for covid when it comes to economic activity. It was expected that the price would go up.

I don't think the same will happen in Q4, but let's wait and see how it goes.

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

But in 2007 the people quing up would be buying there 3rd or 4th house, this time they are queing for there first house

Plenty were in a queue for their first home in 2007 trying to get on the ladder, let's not pretend it was all buy to let folk.

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

That's not true. The cost of sustaining the handout class becomes a lot cheaper when housing is inexpensive.

I fear the handout class will grow once/if the waiting list to get a forever home shortens.

PropQueries

Augeo wrote: »

I fear the handout class will grow once/if the waiting list to get a forever home shortens.

There's no such thing in Ireland as a 'handout class' unless you're referring to pensioners of course.

Link to the breakdown of the social welfare spend in 2019: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/socialprotection/2019/

PropQueries

Leozord wrote: »

Highest surge in asking price since Q1 2017



More details in: https://www.myhome.ie/reports

By looking at it, this Q3 was the "best" this year for covid when it comes to economic activity. It was expected that the price would go up.

I don't think the same will happen in Q4, but let's wait and see how it goes.

There were also some other findings in the report:

“He said the reason for the Q3 rise in the annual figures lies in the fact that July to September is normally a weak period for pricing in the housing market, capturing the end of the summer season. With some pent-up demand caused by the constraints of lockdown and subsequent a “surge” in Q3 activity, the annual performance was flattered compared to last year’s normal weak period. Asking price inflation will likely fall back in Q4,” he said”

The finding that will most likely impact on future demand was on mortgage approvals:

“There was a quarterly rebound in mortgage approvals after lockdown in the third quarter to €670 million, but this was still down by roughly a third on the same period last year. Mr MacCoille estimated that transaction volumes in the period were down by about 37 per cent, which is only slightly better than the 40 per cent decline between April and June.”

He also commented: “The average mortgage approval in the quarter was €247,000 per application, which is up 4 per cent year-on-year. Mr MacCoille said this may have been because weaker and lower income applicants were weeded out of the system as many people among that cohort may have been excluded because they were on pandemic unemployment payments.”

So it looks like the figures are distorted by the Q2 sales just moving to Q3 and both the number of transactions and mortgage approvals in Q3 were still down by over a third in both cases. If both transactions and mortgage approvals were down over a third in Q3 on last years figures, I’m at a loss as to why I’ve being reading so much over the past three months about all this demand.

Cairn Homes also stated last month that they were already back to 85% of pre-covid construction levels, so it looks like new home building is holding up remarkably well despite the covid restrictions.

It should also be noted that the projections for housing demand in 2020 were based on net migration being at c. 30,000. A figure that will be highly unlikely.

Link to article in Irish Times on the report here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/house-asking-prices-rebound-but-will-likely-fall-again-myhome-1.4368771

fliball123

Leozord wrote: »

Highest surge in asking price since Q1 2017



More details in: https://www.myhome.ie/reports

By looking at it, this Q3 was the "best" this year for covid when it comes to economic activity. It was expected that the price would go up.

I don't think the same will happen in Q4, but let's wait and see how it goes.

Am I reading that correctly that asking prices in Q3 are up?? That is completely running against what a lot of posters are spouting on here and would back what I have been saying. Can we believe a source like myhome (vested interest) ?? But it is only asking price so we will have to wait for Q3 selling prices via CSO and PPR.

Also the amount of properties available on myhome is down again at least 500 properties less now available for sale today than this day last month. Also via PPR an increase in activity for the last 2 weeks. (not much about 150 extra properties sold) it will be interesting to see if this keeps going up.

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

Plenty were in a queue for their first home in 2007 trying to get on the ladder, let's not pretend it was all buy to let folk.

Bank of Ireland gave out more buy to let than first time buyer mortgages in 2007

javaboy

Sligo marked as steady even though it dropped.

Wexford, Mayo, Westmeath, Leitrim, Louth all have such small changes, they could be marked with blue arrows. It's a bit misleading.

MacronvFrugals

Ireland has among highest rates of home-working during Covid


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/ireland-has-among-highest-rates-of-home-working-during-covid-1.4369346

Bass Reeves

Augeo wrote: »

Plenty were in a queue for their first home in 2007 trying to get on the ladder, let's not pretend it was all buy to let folk.

There was a lot of other factors in play in 2007 that are not in play now. Builders had gone to the stage of not preselling houses and completing whole estates before a house was put up for sale. Banks were lending virtually unlimited amounts to both builders and house buyers. Even small builders were allowed to carry 5-10 houses to construction stage.

People comparing now to 2007 is like comparing apples to oranges. In a village near me there was a builder with 8 houses completed unsold, another development with about 5houses complete, a developer who has accumulated 2pieces of adjoining land and three houses at a cost of about 3 million, average site cost approximately 40k in a village 10-15miles from Limerick City.

Nearly every village or town with in 20 miles of Limerick was similar. Cork, and Galway were worse.

Smouse156

fliball123 wrote: »

Am I reading that correctly that asking prices in Q3 are up?? That is completely running against what a lot of posters are spouting on here and would back what I have been saying. Can we believe a source like myhome (vested interest) ?? But it is only asking price so we will have to wait for Q3 selling prices via CSO and PPR.

Also the amount of properties available on myhome is down again at least 500 properties less now available for sale today than this day last month. Also via PPR an increase in activity for the last 2 weeks. (not much about 150 extra properties sold) it will be interesting to see if this keeps going up.

Irish Times/My Home/Pat Davitt love pump & dump

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Am I reading that correctly that asking prices in Q3 are up?? That is completely running against what a lot of posters are spouting on here and would back what I have been saying. Can we believe a source like myhome (vested interest) ?? But it is only asking price so we will have to wait for Q3 selling prices via CSO and PPR.

Also the amount of properties available on myhome is down again at least 500 properties less now available for sale today than this day last month. Also via PPR an increase in activity for the last 2 weeks. (not much about 150 extra properties sold) it will be interesting to see if this keeps going up.

But transactions in Q3 were still down by a third compared to the same quarter last year, so I don't see where all this demand is that is being reported.

In relation to the activity on the PPR, I read recently that since the filing of stamp duty has now moved fully online (from 1st September), this may result in a short term increase in PPR numbers or make them more up to date or make comparisons with the same month last year a bit more difficult?

If there's a solicitor etc. here who could advise if this would be correct?

Smouse156

Dropped from 725k (165k drop)

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/12116186

I guess with the collapse of rental demand, no justification for high apartment prices.

It’s also ultra annoying those websites do not show the price drops, just re-list at a lower price

Dick Turnip

Smouse156 wrote: »

Dropped from 725k (165k drop)

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/12116186

I guess with the collapse of rental demand, no justification for high apartment prices.

It’s also ultra annoying those websites do not show the price drops, just re-list at a lower price

Yes, I've noticed that too. A house I viewed in July for 325k I see is now at 295k but they simply took down the old one and reposted as a new ad so the price drop wouldn't show. If possible, Daft should link a listing by eircode to avoid this.

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

But in 2007 the people quing up would be buying there 3rd or 4th house, this time they are queing for there first house

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There was a lot of other factors in play in 2007 that are not in play now. Builders had gone to the stage of not preselling houses and completing whole estates before a house was put up for sale. Banks were lending virtually unlimited amounts to both builders and house buyers. Even small builders were allowed to carry 5-10 houses to construction stage.

People comparing now to 2007 is like comparing apples to oranges. In a village near me there was a builder with 8 houses completed unsold, another development with about 5houses complete, a developer who has accumulated 2pieces of adjoining land and three houses at a cost of about 3 million, average site cost approximately 40k in a village 10-15miles from Limerick City.

Nearly every village or town with in 20 miles of Limerick was similar. Cork, and Galway were worse.

I just pointed out plenty ftb people queued in 2007 ...... After you stated something about those queuing were doing so for their 3rd & 4th house which is largely untrue.

fliball123

Dick Turnip wrote: »

Yes, I've noticed that too. A house I viewed in July for 325k I see is now at 295k but they simply took down the old one and reposted as a new ad so the price drop wouldn't show. If possible, Daft should link a listing by eircode to avoid this.

I dont know why a seller would do this if I had a property and dropped it by 30k I would want everyone to know as it would be a selling piont

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But transactions in Q3 were still down by a third compared to the same quarter last year, so I don't see where all this demand is that is being reported.

In relation to the activity on the PPR, I read recently that since the filing of stamp duty has now moved fully online (from 1st September), this may result in a short term increase in PPR numbers or make them more up to date or make comparisons with the same month last year a bit more difficult?

If there's a solicitor etc. here who could advise if this would be correct?

Well wouldn't corona, property viewing restrictions, mortgage approval difficulty increasing account for a lot of this. As I say it will be interesting to see how next weeks sales figures go.

MacronvFrugals

Smouse156 wrote: »

Dropped from 725k (165k drop)

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/12116186

I guess with the collapse of rental demand, no justification for high apartment prices.

It’s also ultra annoying those websites do not show the price drops, just re-list at a lower price

TIP: go onto twitter and search the address, any price changes over the last 10 years will be recorded by the myhome.ie bot account

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

I just pointed out plenty ftb people queued in 2007 ...... After you stated something about those queuing were doing so for their 3rd & 4th house which is largely untrue.

What your saying is largely untrue unless BOI were an outlier in 2007, something i doubt.

More BTLs than FTBs is a pretty crazy situation though all the same, asleep at the wheel regulation.

Smouse156

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

TIP: go onto twitter and search the address, any price changes over the last 10 years will be recorded by the myhome.ie bot account

Thanks will do...feel sorry for the two people that paid 675k for these in August/Sept. Thinking they were getting a 50k discount

Cyrus

Smouse156 wrote: »

Dropped from 725k (165k drop)

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/12116186

I guess with the collapse of rental demand, no justification for high apartment prices.

It’s also ultra annoying those websites do not show the price drops, just re-list at a lower price

725k for an 80sq/m apartment

what in gods name were they thinking :rolleyes:

foxrock has lost its cachet aswell imo.

JohnnyChimpo

fliball123 wrote: »

I dont know why a seller would do this if I had a property and dropped it by 30k I would want everyone to know as it would be a selling piont

The price itself is a selling point. Highlighting the drop is just signalling desperation to sell.

fliball123

JohnnyChimpo wrote: »

The price itself is a selling point. Highlighting the drop is just signalling desperation to sell.

Maybe but if you were buying and this particular property was in an area you want would you not have a look at something that had a good price drop. I know I would I might not go for it but I would certainly have a gander at it

silver2020

Smouse156 wrote: »

Dropped from 725k (165k drop)

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/12116186

I guess with the collapse of rental demand, no justification for high apartment prices.

It’s also ultra annoying those websites do not show the price drops, just re-list at a lower price

You've made assumptions without making some basic checks.

Earlier this year the first block of apartments went on sale. 5 in total, apartment block A. The 2 beds were 1150sq ft. (many 4bed semis are similar size to this) Prices started at €725k, but Property price register show that the 2 ground floor apartments went for 675k.



They have now released apartments in the new block

Apt. Block B - in the opposite corner of the development. Sizes range from 870sq ft and price is lower in accordance with the 20% smaller size.

Release date was always stated for end of Sept. for this block.


Sorry to burst your glee of falling prices

MacronvFrugals

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

What your saying is largely untrue unless BOI were an outlier in 2007, something i doubt.

More BTLs than FTBs is a pretty crazy situation though all the same, asleep at the wheel regulation.

BOI were lending to predominantly BTLs who were queuing for the 3rd or 4th house? I'd say not tbh.

silver2020

Cyrus wrote: »

725k for an 80sq/m apartment

what in gods name were they thinking :rolleyes:

foxrock has lost its cachet aswell imo.

as per my post above, the 725k was for the first block of 5 where the smallest apartment was 1150 sq ft

new block has sizes from 870 sq ft (I'm still in sq ft) and a lower price as you would expect for a smaller space

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

BOI were lending to predominantly BTLs who were queuing for the 3rd or 4th house? I'd say not tbh.

Its 100% true, BOI gave more BTLs than FTBs in 2007.

Source - Julien Mercile from UCD : The Political Economy and Media Coverage of the European Economic Crisis : The Case of Ireland


https://www.bookdepository.com/Political-Economy-Media-Coverage-European-Economic-Crisis-Julien-Mercille/9780415721097?ref=grid-view&qid=1601548714977&sr=1-4

PropQueries

silver2020 wrote: »

You've made assumptions without making some basic checks.

Earlier this year the first block of apartments went on sale. 5 in total, apartment block A. The 2 beds were 1150sq ft. (many 4bed semis are similar size to this) Prices started at €725k, but Property price register show that the 2 ground floor apartments went for 675k.



They have now released apartments in the new block

Apt. Block B - in the opposite corner of the development. Sizes range from 870sq ft and price is lower in accordance with the 20% smaller size.

Release date was always stated for end of Sept. for this block.


Sorry to burst your glee of falling prices

But the PPR prices for new builds doesn't include VAT at 13.5% so those apartments would have sold for higher. That's my understanding anyway.

Or maybe they're following in Glenveagh's footsteps who reduced the prices of their one bed apartments in Greystones from €495k to €345k last month and many others across Dublin.

Link to Glenveagh price cuts here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html

MacronvFrugals

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its 100% true, BOI gave more BTLs than FTBs in 2007.

Source - Julien Mercile from UCD : The Political Economy and Media Coverage of the European Economic Crisis : The Case of Ireland


https://www.bookdepository.com/Political-Economy-Media-Coverage-European-Economic-Crisis-Julien-Mercille/9780415721097?ref=grid-view&qid=1601548714977&sr=1-4

That does not validate that BOI were lending to predominantly BTLs who were queuing for their 3rd or 4th house ......... the link is to a book, are we to buy the book ?

silver2020

PropQueries wrote: »

But the PPR prices for new builds doesn't include VAT at 13.5% so those apartments would have sold for higher. That's my understanding anyway.

Or maybe they're following in Glenveagh's footsteps who reduced the prices of their one bed apartments in Greystones from €495k to €345k last month and many others across Dublin.

ppr = 594,713.66
so 675k gross inc vat @13.5%


That glenveagh development was way overpriced - one bed in Greystones at foxrock prices?

any quick search shows the brighton wood apts being a new release (1st viewing this weekend) of the second block with sizes 20% below those in the first block.

Those who spout false news will never want people to do a cursory check of facts

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

That does not validate that BOI were lending to predominantly BTLs who were queuing for their 3rd or 4th house ......... the link is to a book, are we to buy the book ?

No, but it shows they were lending more to BTLs than FTBs which is crazy in itself.

You'd have to imagine someone getting a BTL already owned their own home.

MacronvFrugals

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

No, but it shows they were lending more to BTLs than FTBs which is crazy in itself.

You'd have to imagine someone getting a BTL already owned their own home.

& another one or two also?

silver2020

Smouse156 wrote: »

Thanks will do...feel sorry for the two people that paid 675k for these in August/Sept. Thinking they were getting a 50k discount

675k for 1150sq ft or 560k for 870sq ft?

I think they are happy enough. Also block 1 is in a far better location and just 5 apartments in the block.

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

& another one or two also?

I never said 3 or 4 houses.

You said - "I just pointed out plenty ftb people queued in 2007"

I'm saying yes that's true but more BTLs queued up than FTBs in 2007 for BOI.

Cyrus

silver2020 wrote: »

as per my post above, the 725k was for the first block of 5 where the smallest apartment was 1150 sq ft

new block has sizes from 870 sq ft (I'm still in sq ft) and a lower price as you would expect for a smaller space

thanks for the clarification and to be honest that makes a lot more sense.

MacronvFrugals

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I never said 3 or 4 houses.

You said - "I just pointed out plenty ftb people queued in 2007"

I'm saying yes that's true but more BTLs queued up than FTBs in 2007 for BOI.

My comment was in response to .......

Bass Reeves wrote: »

But in 2007 the people quing up would be buying there 3rd or 4th house, this time they are queing for there first house

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

My comment was in response to .......

What bass said is a bit of an exaggeration but the point still stands, BTLs were being given out like cotton candy and more so than FTBs

MacronvFrugals

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

What bass said is a bit of an exaggeration..........

That was the point I made, except it's more then a bit of an exaggeration. Maybe he's including trader uppers and not just BTL folk.

https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/quarterly-bulletin-signed-articles/residential-mortgages.pdf?sfvrsn=6

PropQueries

Augeo wrote: »

On a side note on the BTL purchases in the late tiger years, wouldn't many of them have been on e.g. 10 year interest only tracker mortgages. So, given the rent increases and only being on interest only tracker mortgages over the past ten years, most should have been ok?

Also, does anyone have any info on how many have reverted back to principal and interest as that would definitely result in problems in the very near future.

Smouse156

silver2020 wrote: »

ppr = 594,713.66
so 675k gross inc vat @13.5%


That glenveagh development was way overpriced - one bed in Greystones at foxrock prices?

any quick search shows the brighton wood apts being a new release (1st viewing this weekend) of the second block with sizes 20% below those in the first block.

Those who spout false news will never want people to do a cursory check of facts

I wasn’t aware that that the new block were significantly smaller, so I take your point there. 1100sqft for a 2-bed in Dublin is most unusual.

There is evidence of falling prices in that the old block were asking 725k plus and sold for 675k. However, they were so overpriced (like Greystones) that they were never likely to achieve the 725k.

PropQueries

Smouse156 wrote: »

I wasn’t aware that that the new block were significantly smaller, so I take your point there. 1100sqft for a 2-bed in Dublin is most unusual.

There is evidence of falling prices in that the old block were asking 725k plus and sold for 675k. However, they were so overpriced (like Greystones) that they were never likely to achieve the 725k.

But wouldn't falls in asking prices for new builds in an area have an indirect impact on the prices of second hand homes within the same area. If new builds fall in price, second hand prices should begin to fall in tandem.

Whether the new builds were over-priced to begin with or not, I'm sure it impacted on the expectations of achievable prices of second hand homes nearby.

silver2020

Smouse156 wrote: »

I wasn’t aware that that the new block were significantly smaller, so I take your point there. 1100sqft for a 2-bed in Dublin is most unusual.

There is evidence of falling prices in that the old block were asking 725k plus and sold for 675k. However, they were so overpriced (like Greystones) that they were never likely to achieve the 725k.

At that price point there is always room for movement and the higher prices have been falling for well over a year from a peak.

In areas like Foxrock, Dalkey, Dunlaoghaire (and possibly also Goatstown) there is strong demand for large apartments for those trading down in the area. But they need to be of a size that furnishings can be moved in too and the feeling of space is still there.

These people are also more likely to run rings around estate agents and get discounts, but they'll pay if they find the right place

MacronvFrugals

Not sure if these have already been posted.


House asking prices rebound but will likely fall again - MyHome

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/house-asking-prices-rebound-but-will-likely-fall-again-myhome-1.4368771?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fhouse-asking-prices-rebound-but-will-likely-fall-again-myhome-1.4368771


Commercial landlords urged to make ‘concessions’ to struggling businesses

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/commercial-landlords-urged-to-make-concessions-to-struggling-businesses-1.4369352?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fcommercial-property%2Fcommercial-landlords-urged-to-make-concessions-to-struggling-businesses-1.4369352

Bass Reeves

Augeo wrote: »

I just pointed out plenty ftb people queued in 2007 ...... After you stated something about those queuing were doing so for their 3rd & 4th house which is largely untrue.

And I was replying to Neutral Guy who was saying what was happening now was similar to 2007 regarding people queing. The amount of multiple house owners that arrived onto the market from 2005-2008 is way more than now. People considered property as peudo pension scheme. Investors had a much bigger impact on the market than now and that is Reit's included

Cyrus

Smouse156 wrote: »

There is evidence of falling prices in that the old block were asking 725k plus and sold for 675k. However, they were so overpriced (like Greystones) that they were never likely to achieve the 725k.

thats not evidence of falling prices though, its evidence of a developer over pricing their product.

MacronvFrugals

How convenient is this, an untouchable class of people in Ireland.

Multi-million Anglo write-offs may be impossible to investigate, commission say

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/multi-million-anglo-write-offs-may-be-impossible-to-investigate-commission-says-1.4369445?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fireland%2Firish-news%2Fmulti-million-anglo-write-offs-may-be-impossible-to-investigate-commission-says-1.4369445

RTE stars, judges and rugby elite who owe Anglo millions

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/rte-stars-judges-and-rugby-elite-who-owe-anglo-millions-29887499.html

PropQueries

From my travels around Dublin over the last few months, I've noticed many commercial properties (shops, restaurants etc.) have planning notices on their windows seeking planning to revert from commercial use to residential. Anyone else notice an increase it these.

The most well known development I've seen them in was Clancy Quay but I also noticed several in Skerries, Malahide and Rush. Makes sense as there is a lot of vacant commercial space in most parts of Dublin, but it could be a significant source of unforeseen residential supply going forward none the less.

Assetbacked

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

How convenient is this, an untouchable class of people in Ireland.

Multi-million Anglo write-offs may be impossible to investigate, commission say

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/multi-million-anglo-write-offs-may-be-impossible-to-investigate-commission-says-1.4369445?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fireland%2Firish-news%2Fmulti-million-anglo-write-offs-may-be-impossible-to-investigate-commission-says-1.4369445

RTE stars, judges and rugby elite who owe Anglo millions

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/rte-stars-judges-and-rugby-elite-who-owe-anglo-millions-29887499.html

And people say SF would be bad!