Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Pelezico

wassie wrote: »

Why are the banks greedy - they are a business with responsibility to shareholders to maximise return on investment for investors i.e profits.
Like it or not, they serve an important function of providing credit.

Don't get me wrong, I'm no fan of the banks, but without credit, the whole show stops. The key is making sure that the lending is done in a responsible manner which since they were recapitalized, they more or less have been doing this.

The market does not agree. Bank shares have tanked this year

The_Conductor

Pelezico wrote: »

The market does not agree. Bank shares have tanked this year

Bank shares tanked- because of a clamour for tax reforms, one item of which would have put strict limits on how many years losses could be carried to offset against future taxable gains.

The largest assets on Irish banks balance sheets- are the losses they incurred during 2008/9/10/11. These losses are worth billions to them- and these losses have been highlighted to prospective investors as the ultimate way to shield any future profits from the taxman. AIB have been to the fore with this- with the complicity of the Irish government- who it suited to flog bank shares for the highest possible amount- zero cognisance of the drag they would have on future taxation of the sector.

The tax reform agenda, however, firmly threw the cat among the pigeons on this lark.

The_Conductor

cubatahavana wrote: »

https://www.daft.ie/12690251

Am I missing something?

Its effectively 2 separate houses- connected with a short passage.
With minimum of renovations it could be reworked as two separate dwellings- and you could keep the passage to enable you to avail of the 14k a year rent-a-room scheme.

It may not look much from the outside- but it does look to have been restored to an exceptionally high standard- perhaps irrationally high standards- given its an old stone cottage. Meanwhile, the extension to the rear stands out as completely incompatible with the period look of the main cottage- is quite jarring.

The price is obviously optimistic- and you're never going to get planning permission to do anything with the garden (not that you could do much with a 1,600 square meter garden- that is inconventionally shaped- other than level the whole site and start off afresh)

Its pricey- it might suit someone- but you'd have to fall in love with it to justify the price. It just doesn't work for me- particularly the ugly extension- its completely alien to the quaint cottage look/feel of the original building.

Pelezico

The_Conductor wrote: »

Bank shares tanked- because of a clamour for tax reforms, one item of which would have put strict limits on how many years losses could be carried to offset against future taxable gains.

The largest assets on Irish banks balance sheets- are the losses they incurred during 2008/9/10/11. These losses are worth billions to them- and these losses have been highlighted to prospective investors as the ultimate way to shield any future profits from the taxman. AIB have been to the fore with this- with the complicity of the Irish government- who it suited to flog bank shares for the highest possible amount- zero cognisance of the drag they would have on future taxation of the sector.

The tax reform agenda, however, firmly threw the cat among the pigeons on this lark.

Bank shares have tanked because of concerns about loan losses. Tge market does not view them as safe.

OwlsZat

Don't we have 36k morgages currently in arrears? Surely, that's having an affect on bank shares too.

The_Conductor

OwlsZat wrote: »

Don't we have 36k morgages currently in arrears? Surely, that's having an affect on bank shares too.

Of which just over 6,400 are 90 days or more in arrears (and without arrangements with the banks) a level akin to 2012 figures, according to the Q1 statement from the Central Bank. Its entirely possible the Q2 statement, when its released, may be more stark- but the figures actually aren't all that bad. The banks, by and large, cleansed their balance sheets of their more troublesome loans- often at large discounts to book value (as high as 60c/Euro discount was common depending on the particular blocks being sold off).

Irish banks are actually in quite a good place- from the perspective of the quality of their loan books.

Cyrus

The_Conductor wrote: »

It just doesn't work for me- particularly the ugly extension- its completely alien to the quaint cottage look/feel of the original building.

wasnt that the objective of planning depts for a while, extensions to old buildings had to contrast rather than compliment,

cant understand the logic myself

Mad_maxx

Pelezico wrote: »

The market does not agree. Bank shares have tanked this year

banking is a sh1t business in this country

too much political interference

The_Conductor

Cyrus wrote: »

wasnt that the objective of planning depts for a while, extensions to old buildings had to contrast rather than compliment,

cant understand the logic myself

My head hurts trying to understand how/why planning departments come up with some of their decisions/requirements- they just don't make a lot of sense to me.

awec

"Bank shares have tanked this year" implies they were doing well last year.

Bank shares in Ireland tanked about a decade ago.

Bass Reeves

The_Conductor wrote: »

My head hurts trying to understand how/why planning departments come up with some of their decisions/requirements- they just don't make a lot of sense to me.

The whole point of contrasting is that you can see clearly the structure and design of the old cottage. In fact the flaw with this extension is it is not contrasted enough compared to the old cottage.. It is actual similar in size and design with the exception of the plain plaster finish. It suffers from few main issues, it is higher than the original cottage due to the landscape, the extension itself is too small and it fails to contrast the cottage.

https://www.pinterest.ie/pin/566538828121738140/visual-search/?cropSource=6&h=313&w=470&x=15&y=10

Here is an extension done to the back of a cottage, however its advantage is its is on the same level and will not be overly visable from the from of the cottage.

Pelezico

Mad_maxx wrote: »

banking is a sh1t business in this country

too much political interference

Absolutely...like the call to banks not to charge interest on deferred mortgages. I bet that there will be complaints to the ombudsman about interest on such loans.

Cyrus

whats going on around the windows in this house and next door, they were only build a couple of years ago.

both this estate and broadlands (being two 'high end' new build estates with a similar finish on the houses) appear to be having issues with these render finishes

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12-temple-view-blackrock-county-dublin/4449602

jesus_thats_gre

Cyrus wrote: »

whats going on around the windows in this house and next door, they were only build a couple of years ago.

both this estate and broadlands (being two 'high end' new build estates with a similar finish on the houses) appear to be having issues with these render finishes

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12-temple-view-blackrock-county-dublin/4449602

Some weird marks above the radiator in the hall too.

But that those marks below the windows seem to be an issue with a critical mass of building built in recent years.

Cyrus

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

Some weird marks above the radiator in the hall too.

But that those marks below the windows seem to be an issue with a critical mass of building built in recent years.

that might just be people leaning against the radiator (for all the use it would do, those new radiators get luke warm at best)

but now that you mention it im shocked they dont have UFH downstairs

The_Conductor

Cyrus wrote: »

that might just be people leaning against the radiator (for all the use it would do, those new radiators get luke warm at best)

but now that you mention it im shocked they dont have UFH downstairs

I do like the mancave in the garden

Bass Reeves

Cyrus wrote: »

whats going on around the windows in this house and next door, they were only build a couple of years ago.

both this estate and broadlands (being two 'high end' new build estates with a similar finish on the houses) appear to be having issues with these render finishes

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12-temple-view-blackrock-county-dublin/4449602

It looks like water staining. I suspect that the sills are stone maybe even grannite. It looks like the top part of the sill may be flat. This would allow water to lodge in the corners of he window sills or to flow off the edges. As stone sills are porous if any water lodges on the sill its will seep through the stone. As well there may be no groove under the sill about an inch from the front of the sill. When it rains and the water flows off the front of the sill this groove prevents the water going all the way back to the wall, whenit hits the groove it falls on to the ground.


However if I was spending a million+ on a house I would not want all my neighbours to have virtuall the same house with the exception of internal decor.

Cyrus

Bass Reeves wrote: »

It looks like water staining. I suspect that the sills are stone maybe even grannite. It looks like the top part of the sill may be flat. This would allow water to lodge in the corners of he window sills or to flow off the edges. As stone sills are porous if any water lodges on the sill its will seep through the stone. As well there may be no groove under the sill about an inch from the front of the sill. When it rains and the water flows off the front of the sill this groove prevents the water going all the way back to the wall, whenit hits the groove it falls on to the ground.


However if I was spending a million+ on a house I would not want all my neighbours to have virtuall the same house with the exception of internal decor.

the water staining, if thats what it is looks bad, but maybe can be cleaned, which if im being critical should have been done as well as some extensive weeding if you re trying to sell a +1m house in todays market.

as for it being the same as your neighbours thats the choice you have in a suburb like blackrock, buy an older house for 8-900k and spend 2-300k renovating it or buy in a small estate.

cnocbui

Mad_maxx wrote: »

banking is a sh1t business in this country

too much political interference

This country can't do banks or insurance. That's what you get with socialist countries.

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unaffordable-housing-poisons-youth-view-of-fine-gael-and-fianna-f%C3%A1il-1.4350008

A very strong IT opinion piece on how the housing market in Ireland is unsuitable for so many people, in particular young people and support for FG and FF among those people being lower than for SF. It traces the problems back to the 80s and 90s; and the switch from State built social housing to State financed social housing in the form of rental assistance for example. This should be a very sobering read for everyone, indicating the housing market has grown completely unsustainable and I have set out some quotes below from the article which are not great to read;

• The State’s longstanding Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil duopoly received a combined vote of just 43 per cent at the last general election, a record low. Both were outpolled by Sinn Féin.
  
• Despite successive pledges to build more houses and make them more affordable, successive Irish governments have succeeded in doing the opposite: inflating prices and rents, building only a trickle of new homes, and widening the affordability gap. Expensive housing, long commutes and stretched public services are making Ireland a less attractive place to live. That’s the view of Ibec, the State’s business main lobby.
  
• Between 2016 and 2019, spending on housing assistant payment, the State’s main rent support scheme, increased by 563 per cent and is expected to be about €500 million this year alone. The average monthly rent subsidy in 2019 was €1,872.
  
• Rising house prices were once an electoral asset for the likes of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. They made homeowners feel richer and more likely to reward the administration that presided over them. Not anymore. Rising house prices are a big negative for many, particularly young voters, who will grow up having never voted for either of the establishment parties, but who will blame them for being materially worse off than their parents.

Pelezico

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unaffordable-housing-poisons-youth-view-of-fine-gael-and-fianna-f%C3%A1il-1.4350008

A very strong IT opinion piece on how the housing market in Ireland is a shambles for so many people, in particular young people and support for FG and FF among those people being lower than for SF. It traces the problems back to the 80s and 90s; and the switch from State built social housing to State financed social housing in the form of rental assistance for example. This should be a very sobering read for everyone, indicating the housing market has grown completely unsustainable and I have set out some quotes below from the article which are dismaying;

• The State’s longstanding Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil duopoly received a combined vote of just 43 per cent at the last general election, a record low. Both were outpolled by Sinn Féin.
  
• Despite successive pledges to build more houses and make them more affordable, successive Irish governments have succeeded in doing the opposite: inflating prices and rents, building only a trickle of new homes, and widening the affordability gap. Expensive housing, long commutes and stretched public services are making Ireland a less attractive place to live. That’s the view of Ibec, the State’s business main lobby.
  
• Between 2016 and 2019, spending on housing assistant payment, the State’s main rent support scheme, increased by 563 per cent and is expected to be about €500 million this year alone. The average monthly rent subsidy in 2019 was €1,872.
  
• Rising house prices were once an electoral asset for the likes of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. They made homeowners feel richer and more likely to reward the administration that presided over them. Not anymore. Rising house prices are a big negative for many, particularly young voters, who will grow up having never voted for either of the establishment parties, but who will blame them for being materially worse off than their parents.

But the rag which is the Irish Times has been one of the biggest shills for rising property prices.

Assetbacked

Well, sure. They own MyHome.ie. But the problem is too large to ignore, prices and rents need to plummet/affordability needs to rise or else further political uncertainty will arise as the younger (ie under 40s) generation will vote for anyone but FFG.

MacronvFrugals

Assetbacked wrote: »

Well, sure. They own MyHome.ie. But the problem is too large to ignore, prices and rents need to plummet/affordability needs to rise or else further political uncertainty will arise as the younger (ie under 40s) generation will vote for anyone but FFG.

In time this will give SF a majority - Jump in young Irish adults living with parents among highest in EU

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/jump-in-young-irish-adults-living-with-parents-among-highest-in-eu-1.4177848

Adding to this we've some of the highest numbers on minimum wage in the EU and its fairly clear FF/FG will need to permanently join together.

Assetbacked

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

In time this will give SF a majority - Jump in young Irish adults living with parents among highest in EU

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/jump-in-young-irish-adults-living-with-parents-among-highest-in-eu-1.4177848

Adding to this we've some of the highest numbers on minimum wage in the EU and its fairly clear FF/FG will need to permanently join together.

47% of 25-29 year olds living with parents in 2017! Jesus, that is utterly depressing. With no urgency to try to correct this with affordable rents the political establishment needs a massive shake up.

hometruths

Assetbacked wrote: »

Well, sure. They own MyHome.ie. But the problem is too large to ignore, prices and rents need to plummet/affordability needs to rise or else further political uncertainty will arise as the younger (ie under 40s) generation will vote for anyone but FFG.

Exactly. The posters on here hoping that prices will only increase in the future should be careful what they wish for.

Rising house prices were once an electoral asset for the likes of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. They made homeowners feel richer and more likely to reward the administration that presided over them.

Making homeowners feel richer is likely to lead us to a government of SF, PBP and other assorted loons.

Springy Turf

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

In time this will give SF a majority - Jump in young Irish adults living with parents among highest in EU

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/social-affairs/jump-in-young-irish-adults-living-with-parents-among-highest-in-eu-1.4177848

Adding to this we've some of the highest numbers on minimum wage in the EU and its fairly clear FF/FG will need to permanently join together.

We have the second highest minimum wage in Europe and below average income inequality (as of 2016). The housing situation is a huge problem, with no quick fixes for sure, but overall in terms of employment, income and opportunity, Ireland is great place to live for the vast majority.

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_minimum_wage
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/EDN-20180426-1

MacronvFrugals

Springy Turf wrote: »

We have the second highest minimum wage in Europe and below average income inequality (as of 2016). The housing situation is a huge problem, with no quick fixes for sure, but overall in terms of employment, income and opportunity, Ireland is great place to live for the vast majority.

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_minimum_wage
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/EDN-20180426-1

Not disputing any of that, the point i'm making is with soo many on minimum wage and housing affordability in such a dire situation this will lead to change i'm not saying positive or negative but change.

Our social transfer mechanisms bring that inequality to a good level although we're a mile off being like our Nordic/Scandinavian neighbors, they're much better places to live for young people in my experience.

PommieBast

Assetbacked wrote: »

Despite successive pledges to build more houses and make them more affordable, successive Irish governments have succeeded in doing the opposite: inflating prices and rents, building only a trickle of new homes, and widening the affordability gap. Expensive housing, long commutes and stretched public services are making Ireland a less attractive place to live.

One thing not mentioned here is the generally poor state of the stock on the market. A significant portion of it should simply be demolished.

The average monthly rent subsidy in 2019 was €1,872.

That is more than my total rent :eek:

landofthetree

Springy Turf wrote: »

We have the second highest minimum wage in Europe and below average income inequality (as of 2016). The housing situation is a huge problem, with no quick fixes for sure, but overall in terms of employment, income and opportunity, Ireland is great place to live for the vast majority.

Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_countries_by_minimum_wage
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-eurostat-news/-/EDN-20180426-1

But the biggest reason there isnt a quick fix is because of government policy post 2011.

Stopped building social houses plus the governments during that time openly admitted they wanted high prices.

SF will win around 60-70 seats next time as its only going to get worse.

Smouse156

Cyrus wrote: »

whats going on around the windows in this house and next door, they were only build a couple of years ago.

both this estate and broadlands (being two 'high end' new build estates with a similar finish on the houses) appear to be having issues with these render finishes

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/12-temple-view-blackrock-county-dublin/4449602

Thinking they’ll get €145k increase on the new build price is delusional! The 1M+ bracket has struggled since 2017. Doubt they’ll see 7 figures at all