Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Pelezico

Wanderer78 wrote: »

once again, you re not allowing the debate to expand, neoclassical is done, theres now sufficient evidence to support this, this is a critical element of why we re having such complex issues, particularly in relation to housing, and its elements such as the availability of credit, thats not allowed to be discussed here, thats playing critical roles in these issues

Yeah....but you uses the prefix neo.....always a red flag in any discussion.

Wanderer78

<snip>

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

They were interviewed on Morning Ireland before 8 this morning- and were cagey as hell- and refused to speculate on possible price falls- insisting that they were insulated from any price falls as most of their properties they're developing (on 44 sites apparently) are between the 330k and 380k price brackets.

The caginess in the interview- spoke louder than what they actually said.

FYI for others. This is the link to the RTE interview with Cairn Homes this morning on Morning Ireland. It’s included in the 7:50 am Business News slot on their website.

Link to Morning Ireland: https://www.rte.ie/radio1/morning-ireland/

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

handsome house........

No BER details, presumably an extra shovel of coal would be required frequently

MacronvFrugals

Interesting piece from Mick Clifford in the Examiner a couple days ago - Michael Clifford: Co-living is bedsits for the 21st century

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/arid-40043303.html

Bedsits provided a roof for loads of folk who are now without one ......... it's not ideal but Co-living / bedsits for the 21st century isn't too bad a concept IMO.

The_Conductor

Augeo wrote: »

Bedsits provided a roof for loads of folk who are now without one ......... it's not ideal but Co-living / bedsits for the 21st century isn't too bad a concept IMO.

Bedsits were cheap and not very cheerful- these are expensive (often more expensive than a houseshare or even a small apartment) and still not very cheerful.

For the sake of privacy- I'd still rather a bedsit (and I did live in bedsits for 4 years when I was younger), than a room in one of these co-living units.

cnocbui

Augeo wrote: »

No BER details, presumably an extra shovel of coal would be required frequently

I saw a very recent global warming scare mongering article about people having problems with high insulation efficiency houses in London being too hot in summer. Perhaps a low BER will become a feature. /s

PropQueries

PropQueries wrote: »

FYI for others. This is the link to the RTE interview with Cairn Homes this morning on Morning Ireland. It’s included in the 7:50 am Business News slot on their website.

Link to Morning Ireland: https://www.rte.ie/radio1/morning-ireland/

It appears that Cairn Homes strategy is to sell three-bed semis in Dublin for less than the cost that most other developers can build them at.

MacronvFrugals

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Interesting piece from Mick Clifford in the Examiner a couple days ago - Michael Clifford: Co-living is bedsits for the 21st century

https://www.irishexaminer.com/opinion/columnists/arid-40043303.html

I don't get the hate for bedsits, plenty of people don't want to houseshare, what other options are there for low paid workers?

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

Bedsits provided a roof for loads of folk who are now without one ......... it's not ideal but Co-living / bedsits for the 21st century isn't too bad a concept IMO.

Today its for the young professionals with fast lives, tomorrow OAPs thats my worry

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

I don't get the hate for bedsits, plenty of people don't want to houseshare, what other options are there for low paid workers?

forever homes for all,

seems to be the message that gets the most 'likes'

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

It appears that Cairn Homes strategy is to sell three-bed semis in Dublin for less than the cost that most other developers can build them at.

how are you calculating that?

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

It appears that Cairn Homes strategy is to sell three-bed semis in Dublin for less than the cost that most other developers can build them at.

Are you making things up again ?

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

I saw a very recent global warming scare mongering article about people having problems with high insulation efficiency houses in London being too hot in summer. Perhaps a low BER will become a feature. /s

I know several folk with very well insulated properties who find them too stuffy in the summer.

Whatever about new builds I'm not at all convinced there's significant environmental benefit for retrofitting old properties to very high BER ratings. All of that insulation isn't made in carbon neutral factories and shipping/hauling it about isn't environmentally friendly either.

Cyrus

Augeo wrote: »

I know several folk with very well insulated properties who find them too stuffy in the summer.

Whatever about new builds I'm not at all convinced there's significant environmental benefit for retrofitting old properties to very high BER ratings. All of that insulation isn't made in carbon neutral factories and shipping/hauling it about isn't environmentally friendly either.

yes i can sympathise with that, our house is a3 rated and every window in the place has to be opened in the summer,

really we need air conditioning believe it or not

Browney7

TheSheriff wrote: »

Are you making things up again ?

They're presumably alluded to the fact that Cairn's prices for new builds are less than the costs touted in industry lobbying papers

MacronvFrugals

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Today its for the young professionals with fast lives, tomorrow OAPs thats my worry

Tomorrow's OAPs on HAP presumably.

Cyrus wrote: »

forever homes for all,

seems to be the message that gets the most 'likes'

Indeed, there will be an infinite list for forever homes in Ireland. If the list was cleared next week it would be double what it was originally a week later.

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

Tomorrow's OAPs on HAP presumably.




Indeed, there will be an infinite list for forever homes in Ireland. If the list was cleared next week it would be double what it was originally a week later.

The issue of driving up land costs is considerable, these co-living developments are worth 2x the value per square metre compared with apartments

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

how are you calculating that?

As per the interview with RTE this morning, the CEO of Cairn Homes said that going forward, they will concentrate on selling homes in the €300k - €380k price range.

He then went on to say that most other developers can only build for that price given that most other developers have higher site costs, finance costs etc. (see link to SCSI cost of building report below).

He followed that up by stating that Cairn Homes purchased their sites at an average of €32k each. He also stated that he can sell his homes for a similar price to what the state can build them at. Seems to be their strategy going forward. Glenveagh have a similar strategy, so will be interesting to watch.

For anyone interested, the RTE interview with Cairn Homes is on Morning Ireland. It’s included in the 7:50 am Business News slot on their website.

Link to Morning Ireland: https://www.rte.ie/radio1/morning-ireland/

For anyone interested in the SCSI report "The Real Cost of New Housing Delivery" published in July 2020, they put the cost of building a 114 sq.m. home at €371,311, split between €178,902 hard costs and €192,409 soft costs.

Link to SCSI report here: https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=1551&field=file

Cantstandsya

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

Wanderer78, take it to the economics forum.

Sorry I don't want to cross the mods but how is what Wanderer was talking about not relevant to a discussion on house prices?

I happen to agree with them that credit is more important than supply and demand and I certainly value seeing an exploration of that fact as part of a discussion on house prices.

Cyrus

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Sorry I don't want to cross the mods but how is what Wanderer was talking about not relevant to a discussion on house prices?

I happen to agree with them that credit is more important than supply and demand and I certainly value seeing an exploration of that fact as part of a discussion on house prices.

search the thread for neoclassical

he has made the point about a million times :pac:

Graham

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Sorry I don't want to cross the mods but how is what Wanderer was talking about not relevant to a discussion on house prices?

Because there is currently no likelihood that Ireland, the EU or the rest of the World are going to be switching to an alternative economic model because capitalism has failed.

If that situation changes, such discussion may become be relevant to discussion of the Irish Property Market 2020. Until then the theoretical debate is better suited to the economics forum.

Pelezico

Browney7 wrote: »

They're presumably alluded to the fact that Cairn's prices for new builds are less than the costs touted in industry lobbying papers

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Sorry I don't want to cross the mods but how is what Wanderer was talking about not relevant to a discussion on house prices?

I happen to agree with them that credit is more important than supply and demand and I certainly value seeing an exploration of that fact as part of a discussion on house prices.

He used the prefix neo. When someone uses neo as prefix to an otherwise inoffensive word, it usually means we are all going to be subjected to a big lecture.

I can do without neo lectures myself.

MacronvFrugals

Keynes suddenly awakens from his grave....

Graham

Please send him to the economics forum unless he's buying a house

Billythekid19

Wanderer78 wrote: »

neoclassical is largely nonsense, it has little or no connect to the way the world actually works, theres an enormous amount of research going into this now, particularly since the crash

I dont see how its nonsense, the bottom line is that higher demand for housing will always push the price up because housing supply is inelastic.

Pelezico

Graham wrote: »

Please send him to the economics forum unless he's buying a house

I hate neo. It is always a sign of trouble. My heart sank when I read the post, just before your intervention on the matter.

Look lads.....no more neo.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

As per the interview with RTE this morning, the CEO of Cairn Homes said that going forward, they will concentrate on selling homes in the €300k - €380k price range.

He then went on to say that most other developers can only build for that price given that most other developers have higher site costs, finance costs etc. (see link to SCSI cost of building report below).

He followed that up by stating that Cairn Homes purchased their sites at an average of €32k each. He also stated that he can sell his homes for a similar price to what the state can build them at. Seems to be their strategy going forward. Glenveagh have a similar strategy, so will be interesting to watch.

For anyone interested, the RTE interview with Cairn Homes is on Morning Ireland. It’s included in the 7:50 am Business News slot on their website.

Link to Morning Ireland: https://www.rte.ie/radio1/morning-ireland/

For anyone interested in the SCSI report "The Real Cost of New Housing Delivery" published in July 2020, they put the cost of building a 114 sq.m. home at €371,311, split between €178,902 hard costs and €192,409 soft costs.

Link to SCSI report here: https://www.scsi.ie/documents/get_lob?id=1551&field=file

Yes that’s right as it appears their site costs are about €30k cheaper than in the SCSI analysis. I presume that is because they acquired sites some time ago while site values were lower. Good strategy but question will remain how many people will be able to buy at those price points.

MacronvFrugals

Pelezico wrote: »

I hate neo. It is always a sign of trouble. My heart sank when I read the post, just before your intervention on the matter.

Look lads.....no more neo.

Not for here but the IMF have no bother talking about things with "Neo" in them.