Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Pelezico

Has anyone else noticed that the search capacity of the residential property register seems to have deteriorated in the last week?

B Rabbit

Pelezico wrote: »

Has anyone else noticed that the search capacity of the residential property register seems to have deteriorated in the last week?

In what way do you mean? Slower or does it show less results than before?

PommieBast

Pelezico wrote: »

A lot of houses sale agreed 7000+.

What is conversion rate to sold?

A lot lower than the sector wants to admit I suspect. My wild guess is 50-75%

Pelezico

B Rabbit wrote: »

In what way do you mean? Slower or does it show less results than before?

I cant summarise sales by month. I wanted total sales for July 2020.

awec

The search has changed so you get a max of 2000 results now. You could still get the data for July 2020, but you'd need to go county-by-county to stay under the 2000 then add it all up.

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

The search has changed so you get a max of 2000 results now. You could still get the data for July 2020, but you'd need to go county-by-county to stay under the 2000 then add it all up.

It is deliberate obfuscation of data which should be easily available.

thefridge2006

New mortgage contracts fall 35% as Covid-19 crisis dents activity

Irish times . not allowed post links yet

Assetbacked

Pelezico wrote: »

It is deliberate obfuscation of data which should be easily available.

We'll need more linear metres of foil it seems.

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/silicon-docks-where-the-streets-have-no-people-1.4351558

An article describing the Grand Canal Dock area on Tuesday evening gone; a total ghost town with no workers at all at 5:30 in the evening.

I have to laugh at this;

Local estate agent, Owen Reilly, also lives in the area and manages an estate of 500 apartments. He argues that any sense of a quarter in crisis is vastly overblown, and that the worst has passed.

He insists the tech companies are once again renting apartments nearby, as staff continue to join their operations even as they must work from home.

Any “void” in absent tech workers was quickly filled by others from financial services, he says. Reilly says 60 per cent of rentals in the second quarter last year were to tech workers: in the same period this year, that had dropped to 36 per cent. But the tech trend has recovered in the third quarter, he says.

“There is particularly strong demand from Amazon. The market has stabilised,” he insists. In Q2 last year, only 8 per cent of new tenants were Irish. This year, it was 17 per cent. There has also been a “pick-up” in Indian workers seeking accommodation.

Pelezico

Assetbacked wrote: »

We'll need more linear metres of foil it seems.

Did you ever see the movie Glengarry Glen Ross. Outstanding acting by all the actors about a bunch of estate agents trying to close sales and get access to the new list of prospective clients.

It was released during the depths of the recession in early 90s. It sure caught the zeetgeist.

Marius34

Pelezico wrote: »

It is deliberate obfuscation of data which should be easily available.

Data is still there.
It's a normal to add limit to returned results from database to app/browser, as it uses resources.
I haven't really used search button on PPR, but files can still be downloaded with full datasets, with no change.

It's 3,549 for July (3,545 none duplicates)

pearcider

Graham wrote: »

Mod Note

if you'd like to continue the general discussion of global job losses or RTE reporting of same, please take it to the appropriate forum.

It would be great if we could have impartial moderation in here, just once, instead of blatant attempts to censor posters who dare to “talk down the market”. Clearly a deterioration of the job market is going to have an impact on the property market. You can only ignore the writing on the wall for so long.

Coyler

awec wrote: »

The search has changed so you get a max of 2000 results now. You could still get the data for July 2020, but you'd need to go county-by-county to stay under the 2000 then add it all up.

You can just down load the spreadsheet if you want all the data. And it's far easier to deal with if you really want that much data. As the years went on the data size was getting larger and larger. Not to mention other sites scraping the data. It was going to happen sooner or later as the infrastructure was getting hammered and the DOJ can't really justify spending money on a search heads so people can just repeatedly uses inefficient searches.

Edit: I see Marius34 already covered this

thefridge2006

Assetbacked wrote: »

An article describing the Grand Canal Dock area on Tuesday evening gone; a total ghost town with no workers at all at 5:30 in the evening.

I have to laugh at this;

"Local estate agent, Owen Reilly, also lives in the area and manages an estate of 500 apartments. He argues that any sense of a quarter in crisis is vastly overblown, and that the worst has passed"
you got to love this type of spoofer. i saw pictures of Grand Canal Dock recently and there wasnt a sinner to be seen. Poor aul Owen clingging on by his finger nails i think

Pelezico

pearcider wrote: »

It would be great if we could have impartial moderation in here, just once, instead of blatant attempts to censor posters who dare to “talk down the market”. Clearly a deterioration of the job market is going to have an impact on the property market. You can only ignore the writing on the wall for so long.

Are you kidding? Without moderation this board would have gone in a thousand directions. We have had several neo misses.

Marius34

pearcider wrote: »

It would be great if we could have impartial moderation in here, just once, instead of blatant attempts to censor posters who dare to “talk down the market”. Clearly a deterioration of the job market is going to have an impact on the property market. You can only ignore the writing on the wall for so long.

There were more conspiracy theories in discussion, than job impact on property market.

MacronvFrugals

Pelezico wrote: »

Are you kidding? Without moderation this board would have gone in a thousand directions. We have had several neo misses.

I think its a Neo phobia you have :P

Pelezico

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I think its a Neo phobia you have :P

Be afraid...be very afraid.

That word is banned, and with good reason.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/silicon-docks-where-the-streets-have-no-people-1.4351558

An article describing the Grand Canal Dock area on Tuesday evening gone; a total ghost town with no workers at all at 5:30 in the evening.

I have to laugh at this;

I go jogging through there a lot. It is very very quiet. I have noticed slightly more people over the last month or so but still dead. Ran the quays all the way down to brewdog the other morning and not 1 person.

MacronvFrugals

Pelezico wrote: »

Be afraid...be very afraid.

That word is banned, and with good reason.

If the IMF uses the prefix its perfectly legitimate in my eyes.

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2016/06/ostry.htm

thefridge2006

Hubertj wrote: »

I go jogging through there a lot. It is very very quiet. I have noticed slightly more people over the last month or so but still dead. Ran the quays all the way down to brewdog the other morning and not 1 person.

Yes, I've heard the same actually. Also know someone renting down there that packed up and heading back down to Galway. This just shows that you can never trust and estate agent/ auctioneer because he is blatantly lying .

fliball123

neutral guy wrote: »

Do you know how much cost daily for Dublin city couple thousands of Google workers who seating at home and make sandwiches at home as well ? How many them at home now ? It is just Google,what about others ? Do you know how many cafe,restaraunts,retail will never recover ? What about those cafe workers ? Were they live,own property ? How long they will pay historicaly high rent prices in Dublin without having a job ?

The study has shown that the city center cafes have lost revenues but that cafes in the burbs have showed an increase jimmy the accountant and bob the IT analyst still like their barista coffee and ready made sambo and will get it close to where the live so some lose some win

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's not tinfoil hat stuff with respect to the MNCs. Look at the Data Protection Commissioner as an example; it should be the gatekeeper for GDPR in Europe, making sure the big techs are kept in line but it is headed by a fairly toothless civil servant and given a small budget on purpose. It announces statutory enquiries into the big techs but then mysteriously nothing is ever heard again;

https://www.dataprotection.ie/en/data-protection-commission-launches-statutory-inquiry-googles-processing-location-data-and
https://www.dataprotection.ie/en/news-media/press-releases/data-protection-commission-opens-statutory-inquiry-google-ireland-limited
https://www.dataprotection.ie/en/news-media/press-releases/data-protection-commission-opens-statutory-inquiry-facebook-0

10 linear metres should do us;

https://shop.supervalu.ie/shopping/product/1141137000

Speak of the devil and he shall appear;

https://www.thejournal.ie/facebook-ireland-high-court-data-protection-commission-5201969-Sep2020/

An attempt by our DPC to enforce an ECJ judgement is automatically responded to with litigation. I'm sure there'll be a rap on the knuckles for Helen Dixon from the "don't look a gift horse in the mouth" civil servants afraid to upset our image as a "diddly eye, great little country to do business in".

The total budget for the DPC this year was €16.9m, I hope that isn't also to cover defending litigation.

L1011

Data Protection Commissioner is relevant to the thread how?

jill_valentine

Assetbacked wrote: »

Yeah, I mean they don't look major in the grand scheme of things, certainly not compared to the losses in hospitality, retail and travel. The big thing to watch is whether the projects to lease the large office complexes for the likes of Facebook, LinkedIn and Amazon still go ahead.

For what it's worth as an anecdote, I work near a huge WeWork building in Dublin City Centre. WeWork as a company was in a ropey position before Covid, but I think as this building is all mid and short term desk rental it's a fairly significant canary in the coal mine for the effects of WFH - I can tell you that there isn't a single person on any of the five floors I can see into, and the only people I've seen all day looked like movers.

Assetbacked

L1011 wrote: »

Data Protection Commissioner is relevant to the thread how?

"Don't look a gift horse in the mouth" attitude to anti-democratic, monopolistic, tax avoiding multi-nationals just because of the jobs they bring to the economy. It extends to the DPC who is given a token office and budget but is really just for show as Ireland doesn't want to upset the Googles and the Facebooks. Of relevance to the property market?

The jobs they bring is more important than the quality of life in Dublin which they are contributing to eroding by creating more demand for a dwindling pool of rentals, aiding an out-of-control rental market which is now spiralling downwards.

That's the best I can do.

Graham

WeWork is an interesting one to watch given current events.

There's a chance they'll benefit from companies seeking more flexible office arrangements if finances allow them to stick around long enough.

Assetbacked

Graham wrote: »

WeWork is an interesting one to watch given current events.

There's a chance they'll benefit from companies seeking more flexible office arrangements if finances allow them to stick around long enough.

I have been struggling to find resources online on this but what would the relationship between commercial rents and land values be in Dublin?

Graham

May be approach it from a different angle;

Commercial rents heavily influenced by supply & demand, land values heavily influenced by commercial rents.

hometruths

Assetbacked wrote: »

"Don't look a gift horse in the mouth" attitude to anti-democratic, monopolistic, tax avoiding multi-nationals just because of the jobs they bring to the economy. It extends to the DPC who is given a token office and budget but is really just for show as Ireland doesn't want to upset the Googles and the Facebooks. Of relevance to the property market?

The jobs they bring is more important than the quality of life in Dublin which they are contributing to eroding by creating more demand for a dwindling pool of rentals, aiding an out-of-control rental market which is now spiralling downwards.

That's the best I can do.

On tech MNCs and property....

I think the reason these companies are important to the country is more the corporate tax tax take rather than the jobs. Sure they are paying less than they should relative to their profits but at least they are paying us.

Of course the jobs they provide are important, no doubt some are very high paying. And sure if they're operating in the rental market with big salaries they are having effect on price. But they are constantly referenced in this thread with greater weight than they deserve.

Something like 90% of all private sector, non finance jobs, are provided by Irish SMEs - these are far more important in moving the property market needle than Google, Facebook., Twitter et al.

If a recession sweeps through the Irish SME sector it will have a much bigger impact on property than the tech MNCs cutting jobs.

And every time WFH comes up for discussion, it is all about Google or Facebook - I actually don't think the impact here will be that great either.

But if your average indigenous Irish widget makers start to embrace WFH the impact will be dramatic. I also think these companies are more likely than the tech crowd to go all in WFH where possible.