Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

On tech MNCs and property....

I think the reason these companies are important to the country is more the corporate tax tax take rather than the jobs. Sure they are paying less than they should relative to their profits but at least they are paying us.

Of course the jobs they provide are important, no doubt some are very high paying. And sure if they're operating in the rental market with big salaries they are having effect on price. But they are constantly referenced in this thread with greater weight than they deserve.

Something like 90% of all private sector, non finance jobs, are provided by Irish SMEs - these are far more important in moving the property market needle than Google, Facebook., Twitter et al.

If a recession sweeps through the Irish SME sector it will have a much bigger impact on property than the tech MNCs cutting jobs.

And every time WFH comes up for discussion, it is all about Google or Facebook - I actually don't think the impact here will be that great either.

But if your average indigenous Irish widget makers start to embrace WFH the impact will be dramatic. I also think these companies are more likely than the tech crowd to go all in WFH where possible.

i agree with most of what you say but i think WFH is less suited to many SMEs. Obviously it will differ from sector to sector but the nature of what many SMEs do requires collaboration in person. If i walk up Baggot St you can see a lot of SMEs are back in the office while the big buildings, LinkedIN, Takeda etc, are closed.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

i agree with most of what you say but i think WFH is less suited to many SMEs. Obviously it will differ from sector to sector but the nature of what many SMEs do requires collaboration in person. If i walk up Baggot St you can see a lot of SMEs are back in the office while the big buildings, LinkedIN, Takeda etc, are closed.

Aside from obviously the retail/food etc what sort of SMEs do you mean?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Aside from obviously the retail/food etc what sort of SMEs do you mean?

legal, tech start ups where long periods of collaboration is large part of creative process.. When you're trying to build a company and create an identity face to face interaction is required, you cant create that on zoom.
What i'm saying is that i don't think there will be a big shift to wfh for SMEs, it will be about flexibility. Maybe i'll be wrong.

MacronvFrugals

Similar to the discussion we were having the other day.

Unaffordable housing poisons youth view of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/unaffordable-housing-poisons-youth-view-of-fine-gael-and-fianna-f%C3%A1il-1.4350008

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

legal, tech start ups where long periods of collaboration is large part of creative process.. When you're trying to build a company and create an identity face to face interaction is required, you cant create that on zoom.
What i'm saying is that i don't think there will be a big shift to wfh for SMEs, it will be about flexibility. Maybe i'll be wrong.

I'd probably agree that face to face working is better for a creative process in a young start up, but the reality most SMEs are slightly dull, established and uncreative.

I mentioned the example of my insurance broker before. I know my solicitor who has fancy Georgian office in D2, has happily WFH'd since March. I know this because I had occasion to speak to him on the phone and it didn't matter where he was. I have had a fair bit of business with him over the last three years but I haven't seen him since March 2017.

Ive no idea if he intends to take his firm more WFH, but there is no doubt he could by just retaining a meeting room.

I know of another company, manufacturing/distributing equipment for all sorts of industry - currently based in an industrial estate in Finglas. The MD lives in very rural Wicklow, he's wanted to relocate to an industrial park on the southside M50 for some years but felt he couldn't because of the employees commute. Thanks to COVID he's relocating the business to Wicklow.

I can think of numerous examples.

I agree it is currently uncertain whether the shift will take place - but the reality is with the right employees most of these companies can scale back office/commercial property requirements if they wish.

The Belly

pearcider wrote: »

It would be great if we could have impartial moderation in here, just once, instead of blatant attempts to censor posters who dare to “talk down the market”. Clearly a deterioration of the job market is going to have an impact on the property market. You can only ignore the writing on the wall for so long.

Bring back Bertie with the make up

MacronvFrugals

The Belly wrote: »

Bring back Bertie with the make up

With or without telling Morgan Kelly to commit suicide?

The Belly

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

With or without telling Morgan Kelly to commit suicide?

well if you dont agree that what was advised.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

If i walk up Baggot St you can see a lot of SMEs are back in the office

The other point worth considering is lease terms. We may see an incremental shift over the years as these types of businesses consider whether or not to renew their leases.

i.e they're back in the office in Baggot St now, but if their lease is up for renewal at end of March 2021, will they be back in the office in April 2021?

The Belly

The Belly wrote: »

well if you dont agree that what was advised.

Donohoe calls for ‘unprecedented European solutions’ to Covid crisis
Eurogroup president wants return to budgetary and fiscal normality

MacronvFrugals

The Belly wrote: »

Donohoe calls for ‘unprecedented European solutions’ to Covid crisis
Eurogroup president wants return to budgetary and fiscal normality

Its always been the biggest issue with the EU, no automatic stabilizers like the US has and leads to countries bickering while others burn.

If the ECB calls for anything even resembling austerity in the likes of Italy and Spain we may aswell roll out the carpet for fascists

The Belly

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its always been the biggest issue with the EU, no automatic stabilizers like the US has and leads to countries bickering while others burn.

Yes a half arsed job

All were adding to an “uneven, incomplete and asymmetric recovery we have observed in the third quarter after a catastrophic second quarter unparalleled in peace time”.

like the wording:(

Assetbacked

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Its always been the biggest issue with the EU, no automatic stabilizers like the US has and leads to countries bickering while others burn.

If the ECB calls for anything even resembling austerity in the likes of Italy and Spain we may aswell roll out the carpet for fascists

If we see a return to austerity in the EU, consider Brexit a legitimate course of action for other countries, including Ireland.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

The other point worth considering is lease terms. We may see an incremental shift over the years as these types of businesses consider whether or not to renew their leases.

i.e they're back in the office in Baggot St now, but if their lease is up for renewal at end of March 2021, will they be back in the office in April 2021?

True, or they can renew the lease for 30% less? Some believe there will be tumbleweed blowing through town so landlords who can might have to swallow it? Or the likes of WeWork could benefit if the price point is right. I believe it is expensive albeit flexible?

awec

Assetbacked wrote: »

If we see a return to austerity in the EU, consider Brexit a legitimate course of action for other countries, including Ireland.

I genuinely do not see austerity becoming a thing, at least not like it was.

There is absolutely zero appetite for it. There wasn't exactly clamour for it last time, but they managed to sell the idea.

But unlike 2008, we aren't coming off the back of a period where everyone was living it up.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

True, or they can renew the lease for 30% less? Some believe there will be tumbleweed blowing through town so landlords who can might have to swallow it? Or the likes of WeWork could benefit if the price point is right. I believe it is expensive albeit flexible?

Definitely one solution is landlords dropping the price, then no doubt there will be less of a shift to WFH.

If I owned a Georgian on Baggot St, and tenants didn't renew, I'd try shifting to serviced offices/meeting rooms/call answering/business address etc.

Which I guess is good for the likes of WeWork. I could see an Airbnb for offices booking platform type of business doing well.

We could see the likes of Baggot St transformed - get rid of the dreary solicitors and accountants, fill it up full of young energetic start ups!

jgt3

Okay so do I buy a house or not?

The_Conductor

jgt3 wrote: »

Okay so do I buy a house or not?

Thats entirely up to you.
If you see a house that you like, can see yourself living there long term and can afford it- then it would make sense to do so. Otherwise- don't.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Definitely one solution is landlords dropping the price, then no doubt there will be less of a shift to WFH.

If I owned a Georgian on Baggot St, and tenants didn't renew, I'd try shifting to serviced offices/meeting rooms/call answering/business address etc.

Which I guess is good for the likes of WeWork. I could see an Airbnb for offices booking platform type of business doing well.

We could see the likes of Baggot St transformed - get rid of the dreary solicitors and accountants, fill it up full of young energetic start ups!

Sorry to burst the bubble the media has being feeding everyone for the past 6 years but there is little to no 'start-up' culture in Ireland. London and Berlin are the IT start-up cities in Europe and my understanding is that Latvia is the FinTech start-up capital of Europe.

Helping people set up advertising accounts at Google and Facebook and managing bookings at AirBnB hasn't provided the necessary skills for any such start-up culture to take place in Ireland.

There's exceptions of course, but they're very very few.

I'm open to correction of course. Attack at will

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

Sorry to burst the bubble the media has being feeding everyone for the past 6 years but there is little to no 'start-up' culture in Ireland. London and Berlin are the IT start-up cities in Europe and my understanding is that Latvia is the FinTech start-up capital of Europe.

Helping people set up advertising accounts at Google and Facebook and managing bookings at AirBnB hasn't provided the necessary skills for any such start-up culture to take place in Ireland.

There's exceptions of course, but they're very very few.

I'm open to correction of course. Attack at will

I agree. Just trying to think positively for the future of Baggot st.

what i think is more likely to happen is landlords won’t drop rents, tenants won’T renew leases and Baggot St will be full of tumbleweed.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Sorry to burst the bubble the media has being feeding everyone for the past 6 years but there is little to no 'start-up' culture in Ireland. London and Berlin are the IT start-up cities in Europe and my understanding is that Latvia is the FinTech start-up capital of Europe.

Helping people set up advertising accounts at Google and Facebook and managing bookings at AirBnB hasn't provided the necessary skills for any such start-up culture to take place in Ireland.

There's exceptions of course, but they're very very few.

I'm open to correction of course. Attack at will

There are loads of startups in Ireland. It is one of the best countries in the world to start a business.

I think Forbes did some analysis a few years ago and Ireland was in the top 10. I can't remember what the exact position was but I remember we were ahead of the US.

I think a lot of our more successful start ups end up being acquired before they become high profile. That said, "startup" is such a vague term. You have 10 year old companies with hundreds of employees calling themselves "startups" because it's cool and hip.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

I agree. Just trying to think positively for the future of Baggot st.

what i think is more likely to happen is landlords won’t drop rents, tenants won’T renew leases and Baggot St will be full of tumbleweed.

I haven't researched it, but I think it would be interesting to find out how Latvia became the FinTech start-up capital of Europe. Eastern europe is increasingly following our lead in attracting multinationals. Maybe it's about time we started copying some of their ideas?

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

I haven't researched it, but I think it would be interesting to find out how Latvia became the FinTech start-up capital of Europe. Eastern europe is increasingly following our lead in attracting multinationals. Maybe it's about time we started copying some of their ideas?

Cluj in Romania has been dubbed eastern Europes Silicon Valley

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

There are loads of startups in Ireland. It is one of the best countries in the world to start a business.

I think Forbes did some analysis a few years ago and Ireland was in the top 10. I can't remember what the exact position was but I remember we were ahead of the US.

I think a lot of our more successful start ups end up being acquired before they become high profile. That said, "startup" is such a vague term. You have 10 year old companies with hundreds of employees calling themselves "startups" because it's cool and hip.

100% agree. For our size, we actually do exceedingly well.

thefridge2006

"Ireland could suffer ‘multiple economic hits’, warns Varadkar" - Irish Times

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

I haven't researched it, but I think it would be interesting to find out how Latvia became the FinTech start-up capital of Europe. Eastern europe is increasingly following our lead in attracting multinationals. Maybe it's about time we started copying some of their ideas?

East Europe in general is low taxation on Corporate/Dividend/Capital gain tax. Sometimes all combined as one.
Dividends and other gains are typically not counted as part of the income.
In some cases small companies/start-ups has exemptions on Corporate tax.

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Definitely one solution is landlords dropping the price, then no doubt there will be less of a shift to WFH.

If I owned a Georgian on Baggot St, and tenants didn't renew, I'd try shifting to serviced offices/meeting rooms/call answering/business address etc.

Which I guess is good for the likes of WeWork. I could see an Airbnb for offices booking platform type of business doing well.

We could see the likes of Baggot St transformed - get rid of the dreary solicitors and accountants, fill it up full of young energetic start ups!

Just thinking. You make an excellent point. If rents drop, that would definitely encourage a start-up culture to take place. Only problem once it takes off is if the landlords start increasing the rent and we're back to square one. Your point stands though.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

Just thinking. You make an excellent point. If rents drop, that would definitely encourage a start-up culture to take place. Only problem once it takes off is if the landlords start increasing the rent and we're back to square one. Your point stands though.

Commercial gentrification

The Belly

jgt3 wrote: »

Okay so do I buy a house or not?

do what you feel is right but just watch whats happening around you and dont rush

Assetbacked

jgt3 wrote: »

Okay so do I buy a house or not?

Probably not given there's a frenzy going on with places going for over asking and bidding wars on properties. Let the dust settle post-pandemic and see what the government offer in terms of market stimulation.