Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Assetbacked

HotDudeLife wrote: »

More propaganda from IT/Myhome

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/househunters-undaunted-by-covid-19-myhome-ie-survey-suggests-1.4353882

"Sentiment among prospective homebuyers appears to be holding up in the face of the pandemic, research by MyHome.ie suggests."

"Just 13% expect prices to fall by more than 10% over the next year, research finds "

" “Even though consumers have not seen the price drops that many predicted when Covid-19 emerged, demand has stayed strong throughout Q2 and Q3,” she insisted "



Whilst, i have no plans on buying i have been keeping an eye on things as younger colleagues have been on the fence and are now holding off purchasing. Surely it is too early to make a statement like "Even though consumers have not seen the price drops that many predicted when Covid-19 emerged "

I would've expected people to be more patient given the lag time of price crash during the last recession.

So apparently "many" expected price drops but only 13% expect prices to fall by more than 10% over the next year. Are there "many" expecting price drops or not? The article talking up the whole thing with this spoof would indicate there is something up which is why they need to publish such a hype article.

King Cantona

More details on Advant Money - their much touted sub 2% mortgage requires a 40% deposit.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0914/1165000-avant-money-enter-mortgage-market-with-1-95-fixed-rate/

Brock Turnpike

King Cantona wrote: »

More details on Advant Money - their much touted sub 2% mortgage requires a 40% deposit.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0914/1165000-avant-money-enter-mortgage-market-with-1-95-fixed-rate/

I'd guess only a small number of people would be in a position to take advantage of that 1.95% on that basis.

The_Conductor

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

I'd guess only a small number of people would be in a position to take advantage of that 1.95% on that basis.

Its still a rate of 2.2% for a FTB using usual criteria (90% mortgage on selected property types) which undercuts most of the incumbents by up 0.5% (you can pick up a rate of 2.69% even with some of the more expensive companies such as BOI- providing you meet their criteria).

Of most interest to Irish consumers- might be the option of locking in a 2.2% rate for 7 years- and then availing of a relatively generous floating rate (think I saw 2.75% in the RTE piece).

Its a different model to the incumbents- and may force them to compete on interest rates rather than cash-back deals (which you have to pay for anyway with higher interest rates). Don't know about others- but I'd rather a lower interest rate- rather than fiddling around with cash-back deals etc.

awec

The_Conductor wrote: »

Its still a rate of 2.2% for a FTB using usual criteria (90% mortgage on selected property types) which undercuts most of the incumbents by up 0.5% (you can pick up a rate of 2.69% even with some of the more expensive companies such as BOI- providing you meet their criteria).

Of most interest to Irish consumers- might be the option of locking in a 2.2% rate for 7 years- and then availing of a relatively generous floating rate (think I saw 2.75% in the RTE piece).

Its a different model to the incumbents- and may force them to compete on interest rates rather than cash-back deals (which you have to pay for anyway with higher interest rates). Don't know about others- but I'd rather a lower interest rate- rather than fiddling around with cash-back deals etc.

Yes 2.75, but are they guaranteeing that rate?

The_Conductor

awec wrote: »

Yes 2.75, but are they guaranteeing that rate?

No, they're not guaranteeing it- its a floating rate, which can vary.
On the basis of their history in the sector (mainly in Portugal, to a lesser extent in Spain) its likely to continue to be highly competitive compared to the incumbents- this means you're not going to get the rates on offer on the continent- but you will get a competitive rate in an Irish context.

MacronvFrugals

Graham wrote: »

Aren't we in the region of 1.7 trillion at the moment?

I can't remember the exact figures but I'm pretty sure it's around there.

A lot of that has been changed from grants to loans, when the fiscal adjustment measures come to repay thats when we could see issues arise.

JimmyVik

Ive decided that if house price fall by 10% im jumping. I have my eye several that would be suitable for me.
Now if tax or stealth taxes drop my income or raid my pension, I wont be buying anything. I'll wait for a 25% drop in that case, because once taxes and stealth taxes start to rise, you never know where it will stop.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

So apparently "many" expected price drops but only 13% expect prices to fall by more than 10% over the next year. Are there "many" expecting price drops or not? The article talking up the whole thing with this spoof would indicate there is something up which is why they need to publish such a hype article.

I think it says to me that people have such a pain in the t*ts with rental market they are laser focused on trying to buy.

Cyrus

King Cantona wrote: »

More details on Advant Money - their much touted sub 2% mortgage requires a 40% deposit.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0914/1165000-avant-money-enter-mortgage-market-with-1-95-fixed-rate/

i wonder will they take switchers with an equivalent LTV,

hopefully they will.

awec

Cyrus wrote: »

i wonder will they take switchers with an equivalent LTV,

hopefully they will.

Why wouldn't they? I imagine they'll take anyone looking a max of 60% LTV.

Geuze

JimmyVik wrote: »

Ive decided that if house price fall by 10% im jumping. I have my eye several that would be suitable for me.
Now if tax or stealth taxes drop my income or raid my pension, I wont be buying anything. I'll wait for a 25% drop in that case, because once taxes and stealth taxes start to rise, you never know where it will stop.

What is a "stealth tax"?

Geuze

Cyrus wrote: »

i wonder will they take switchers with an equivalent LTV,

hopefully they will.

They will.

https://www.avantmoney.ie/mortgages/faq

smellyoldboot

Avant won't benefit the mortgage market in Ireland much if at all. They will scoop up already well performing loans from other banks, leaving them with less desirable/higher risk loans on their books. All the while having no interest in the lower end of the market themselves. Potentially very damaging and I can't see why we are allowing this to occur after propping up Irish banks for so long. This will make existing lenders even more cautious. It's not competition in the true sense as they are not competing at every level.

cnocbui

Geuze wrote: »

What is a "stealth tax"?

Stuff like so called 'levies' on most forms of insurance - not allowing for inflation when computing CGT is another - the Public Service Obligation Levy on electricity. Just off the top of my head.

Cantstandsya

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Avant won't benefit the mortgage market in Ireland much if at all. They will scoop up already well performing loans from other banks, leaving them with less desirable/higher risk loans on their books. All the while having no interest in the lower end of the market themselves. Potentially very damaging and I can't see why we are allowing this to occur after propping up Irish banks for so long. This will make existing lenders even more cautious. It's not competition in the true sense as they are not competing at every level.

Sounds good to me.

Banks no longer able to make the people who do pay their mortgages make up for those who don't.

Those who actually do pay able to get a lower rate commenserate with the risk they pose the bank rather than some waster living rent free for ten years.

Banks become more cautious forcing the government to deal with the elephant in the room of people not paying mortgages and remaining in the houses.

It has to happen eventually so, as the saying goes, eat the frog.

topmanamillion

Geuze wrote: »

What is a "stealth tax"?

It's a tax by another name. The likes of USC which was supposed to be a temporary measure to balance the states books but is still here over a decade later is a stealth tax.
Also the "contributions" that are still thrown on everyone's car and home premiums to pay for Quinn and Setanta going tits up would be stealth taxes too.

Geuze

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Avant won't benefit the mortgage market in Ireland much if at all. They will scoop up already well performing loans from other banks, leaving them with less desirable/higher risk loans on their books. All the while having no interest in the lower end of the market themselves. Potentially very damaging and I can't see why we are allowing this to occur after propping up Irish banks for so long. This will make existing lenders even more cautious. It's not competition in the true sense as they are not competing at every level.

Price discrimination is perfectly normal in many markets.

Brown Thomas don't target all customers, neither do BMW.

We need more differential pricing, to reflect differences in lending risk.

Geuze

topmanamillion wrote: »

It's a tax by another name. The likes of USC which was supposed to be a temporary measure to balance the states books but is still here over a decade later is a stealth tax.

The USC is lower than the two former taxes it replaces.

I never heard it is due to be temporary.

Cyrus

Geuze wrote: »

The USC is lower than the two former taxes it replaces.

I never heard it is due to be temporary.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/irelands-most-hated-tax-universal-social-charge-30804972.html

it was temporary originally.

Prsi was 4% in 2011

http://www.ohanlontax.ie/downloads/TaxTables2011.pdf

We got a top rate of USC at 10% in 2012

http://www.ohanlontax.ie/downloads/TaxTables2012.pdf

so how was it lower?

Ipro

Does anyone know if Avant mortgages are being offered via the free brokers? Or only the paid ones ?
Feel free to PM recommendations

Cyrus

Ipro wrote: »

Does anyone know if Avant mortgages are being offered via the free brokers? Or only the paid ones ?
Feel free to PM recommendations

my assumption is free, given you dont get a contribution towards legal fees, if you were paying for a broker as well and they dont allow over payments it starts to look marginal at best.

L1011

Cyrus wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/irelands-most-hated-tax-universal-social-charge-30804972.html

it was temporary originally.

Prsi was 4% in 2011

http://www.ohanlontax.ie/downloads/TaxTables2011.pdf

We got a top rate of USC at 10% in 2012

http://www.ohanlontax.ie/downloads/TaxTables2012.pdf

so how was it lower?

USC replaced the Income Levy and Pension Levy, not PRSI.

The_Conductor

I know that its unpopular- but it makes most sense to further increase the USC across all bands- to encompass all income, regardless of source.
We're going to have to pay for the financial mess we're in.

Cyrus

L1011 wrote: »

USC replaced the Income Levy and Pension Levy, not PRSI.

sorry you are right, but before the income levy and pension levy (which was PS only correct?) there wasnt an extra tax, now we have them, and they were originally, partially at least, supposed to be temporary.

Cyrus

The_Conductor wrote: »

I know that its unpopular- but it makes most sense to further increase the USC across all bands- to encompass all income, regardless of source.
We're going to have to pay for the financial mess we're in.

isnt that the kind of thinking that killed renua at the start, its effectively a flat tax on all income.

makes a lot of sense, would also enable (you would imagine) a reduction in staff in the civil service as tax calculation and thus collection should be way more straight forward.

itll never catch on :P

billybonkers

40% deposit required for the 1.95% at Avant, didn't see that mentioned in the IT article

PropQueries

Glenveagh have reduced the prices of their 1 Bed Apartments at Marina Village in Greystones from €499,950 to €385,000.

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-bed-apartments-marina-village-greystones-wicklow/4454039

L1011

Cyrus wrote: »

sorry you are right, but before the income levy and pension levy (which was PS only correct?) there wasnt an extra tax, now we have them, and they were originally, partially at least, supposed to be temporary.

I got one of the names wrong - Health* Levy, not Pension Levy

The Pension Levy/PRD for PS is replaced by a new scheme finally I think.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Glenveagh have reduced the prices of their 1 Bed Apartments at Marina Village in Greystones from €499,950 to €385,000.

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-bed-apartments-marina-village-greystones-wicklow/4454039

I was going to say they're fantastic looking apartments with great space for a 1-bed.

Then I realised half the photos are of the penthouses. :mad: