Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

brisan

Graham wrote: »

I do expect there will be many lessons learned and changes made post pandemic. It's hard to guess how this will impact the property market.

Personally I can see slightly lower demand for large scale offices and city centre apartments but I wouldn't like to guess if it will be enough to move the needle significantly.

Life as we knew it last year will never return on many levels
Work ,education ,social are just a few aspects that have changed forever
I can see nursing home owners having a hard time in the near future
Son :Daddy we are putting you in a nursing home
Daddy :You are in you ass, may as well bury me now.

thefridge2006

brisan wrote: »

No but I am fairly secure so hopefully it wont affect me
Retiring -redundancy this year
DB pension healthy lump sum,AVCs and mortgage free.
But i firmly believe this will be the worse recession in the last 100 years
Once the gov turns off life support then it will all start

I agree with Brisan.....don't forget Brexit also.... that, on its own would cause havoc never mind what else is coming down the tracks. Anyone entertaining the idea of buying now is bananas

brisan

bobbyy gee wrote: »

I sold 10 properties in January just before pandemic
I see 2 of them up for sale for less than they paid.

Are you an EA or did you own the properties ??

brisan

Hubertj wrote: »

Surround yourself with positive people

Positive Like me
I am positive things are going to be bad

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

Even with a vaccine life as we know it will never be the same again

why wouldnt a vaccine lead to a gradual return to life as usual?

and if what you believe is true then how did the world manage to recover from the last pandemic?

Geuze

brisan wrote: »

No but I am fairly secure so hopefully it wont affect me
Retiring -redundancy this year
DB pension healthy lump sum,AVCs and mortgage free.
But i firmly believe this will be the worse recession in the last 100 years
Once the gov turns off life support then it will all start

As the recession will last 6-9 months, it will be shorter than many previous recessions.

Although it is much sharper yes, as the falls in income during 2020 Q2 were very deep.

The recovery is underway.

How long until income returns to 2019 levels?

Maybe 2021 or 2022?

Leozord

Cyrus wrote: »

and if what you believe is true then how did the world manage to recover from the last pandemic?

the last serious pandemic happened in the midst of a war

soon later we had 29 crash and the nazi-dream

tough times alright

brisan

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Sounds good to me.

Banks no longer able to make the people who do pay their mortgages make up for those who don't.

Those who actually do pay able to get a lower rate commenserate with the risk they pose the bank rather than some waster living rent free for ten years.

Banks become more cautious forcing the government to deal with the elephant in the room of people not paying mortgages and remaining in the houses.

It has to happen eventually so, as the saying goes, eat the frog.

Pamela Flood amongst others disagree

Cyrus

Leozord wrote: »

the last serious pandemic happened in the midst of a war

soon later we had 29 crash and the nazi-dream

tough times alright

yet here we are.

MacronvFrugals

Cyrus wrote: »

why wouldnt a vaccine lead to a gradual return to life as usual?

and if what you believe is true then how did the world manage to recover from the last pandemic?

Slightly facetious but go back to the Black Death and that directly switched us from feudalism to capitalism.

HotDudeLife

Geuze wrote: »

As the recession will last 6-9 months, it will be shorter than many previous recessions.

Although it is much sharper yes, as the falls in income during 2020 Q2 were very deep.

The recovery is underway.

How long until income returns to 2019 levels?

Maybe 2021 or 2022?

Very early to start drinking on a Monday.


All joking aside, seriously? How can you say that, we haven't even witnessed the impact on the economy when the covid payment is pulled and not to mention the winter flu season, among a host of other issues, brexit, US elections etc.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

why wouldnt a vaccine lead to a gradual return to life as usual?

and if what you believe is true then how did the world manage to recover from the last pandemic?

I think the difference this time is that technology exists to allow WFH on a huge scale and an ongoing basis. I also think the west was already moving towards some form of deglobalisation before Covid-19 and this may accelerate the process. So, the world economy was probably changing anyway.

We may be going through our version of an industrial revolution and we currently can't see, as they say, the woods from the trees, and the impact is probably impossible to predict at this stage. Basically, I don't think we're going back to life as usual.

But if we did and 90% of office workers went back full time, that's 10% of the city's workers permanently gone so the impact on commercial real estate in the city may be impacted either way.

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

Glenveagh have reduced the prices of their 1 Bed Apartments at Marina Village in Greystones from €499,950 to €385,000.

Link to MyHome here: https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/1-bed-apartments-marina-village-greystones-wicklow/4454039

Some big drops in Greystones overall

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the difference this time is that technology exists to allow WFH on a huge scale and an ongoing basis. I also think the west was already moving towards some form of deglobalisation before Covid-19 and this may accelerate the process. So, the world economy was probably changing anyway.

We may be going through our version of an industrial revolution and we currently can't see, as they say, the woods from the trees, and the impact is probably impossible to predict at this stage. Basically, I don't think we're going back to life as usual.

But if we did and 90% of office workers went back full time, that's 10% of the city's workers permanently gone so the impact on commercial real estate in the city may be impacted either way.

i dont think he is referring to the property market alone.

HotDudeLife

brisan wrote: »

Some big drops in Greystones overall

D7 too, interesting times ahead

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

i dont think he is referring to the property market alone.

True. But some version of his nazi dream thing may come true depending on how our leaders manage the fall-out from this pandemic. There's only so long people will accept €200 per week when their usual outgoings are probably a multiple of that.

The whole western political system is based on living standards constantly increasing or some version of a better tomorrow.

brisan

Geuze wrote: »

As the recession will last 6-9 months, it will be shorter than many previous recessions.

Although it is much sharper yes, as the falls in income during 2020 Q2 were very deep.

The recovery is underway.

How long until income returns to 2019 levels?

Maybe 2021 or 2022?

WE are a much more open economy now.
American-foreign companies pull out and we are left with overpriced agricultural products
At the time of the last pandemic we imported a lot less and exported a lot less
Plus Britain still paid the bills
This time we are going to suffer as will the rest of the world

MacronvFrugals

Add into all this the commission aint happy about our lovely little green tax haven, harmonized corp tax-rates are on the way in the medium term

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Slightly facetious but go back to the Black Death and that directly switched us from feudalism to capitalism.

Spanish flu of 1916 was the pandemic in question
However this pandemic may cause nearly a radical outcome in the way we live and work.
Instead of flocking to the cities we may see a reverse although not to the same extent

brisan

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Very early to start drinking on a Monday.


All joking aside, seriously? How can you say that, we haven't even witnessed the impact on the economy when the covid payment is pulled and not to mention the winter flu season, among a host of other issues, brexit, US elections etc.

If Trump gets back in the thoughts of his economic policies and the civil unrest and the economic consequences of same truly frighten me

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the difference this time is that technology exists to allow WFH on a huge scale and an ongoing basis. I also think the west was already moving towards some form of deglobalisation before Covid-19 and this may accelerate the process. So, the world economy was probably changing anyway.

We may be going through our version of an industrial revolution and we currently can't see, as they say, the woods from the trees, and the impact is probably impossible to predict at this stage. Basically, I don't think we're going back to life as usual.

But if we did and 90% of office workers went back full time, that's 10% of the city's workers permanently gone so the impact on commercial real estate in the city may be impacted either way.

I honestly can never see this happening

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Slightly facetious but go back to the Black Death and that directly switched us from feudalism to capitalism.

That's a very good point. I read before the black death directly led to the start of worker rights (well, the right to work where you wanted) as landowners had to compete for fewer workers.

awec

The Black Death, in the 1300s? Really?

What did mortgage rates and bank balance sheets look like back then?

rks

The hot desk concept will become even more popular which will only account for 30-50% max of the workforce. Come to office for a day or two when required, book your desk and then go back working from home. Lots of consultancy companies anyway work like this. Most of the time the consultants are working for the clients.

I have seen this a lot in US in companies like Accenture etc.

Of course not everyone can work from home, in certain cases access to test labs etc will be required where research type of work is carried out.

Cyrus

rks wrote: »

The hot desk concept will become even more popular which will only account for 30-50% max of the workforce. Come to office for a day or two when required, book your desk and then go back working from home. Lots of consultancy companies anyway work like this. Most of the time the consultants are working for the clients.

I have seen this a lot in US in companies like Accenture etc.

Of course not everyone can work from home, in certain cases access to test labs etc will be required where research type of work is carried out.

have you ever hot desked?

its rubbish

rks

Cyrus wrote: »

have you ever hot desked?

its rubbish

It is, there's no sense of belonging. I have worked in consultancy company so I know.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

The Black Death, in the 1300s? Really?

What did mortgage rates and bank balance sheets look like back then?

Strange at it seems, there seems to be actual data on that (well bonds)

Link to CNBC article "Bond data back to the Black Death shows lower and even negative rates could be here to stay" here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/14/interest-rates-bond-data-back-to-black-death-shows-low-rates-here-to-stay.html

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Strange at it seems, there seems to be actual data on that (well bonds)

Link to CNBC article "Bond data back to the Black Death shows lower and even negative rates could be here to stay" here: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/14/interest-rates-bond-data-back-to-black-death-shows-low-rates-here-to-stay.html

Mortgage arrears, first offence an eye, second offence an arm, third offence your head?

brisan

awec wrote: »

Mortgage arrears, first offence an eye, second offence an arm, third offence your head?

Everything except the property

HotDudeLife

brisan wrote: »

If Trump gets back in the thoughts of his economic policies and the civil unrest and the economic consequences of same truly frighten me

And it's looking like Trump will win by a landslide too.


Just today he has accepted a 4 hour debate with Biden on the Joe Rogan show, if Biden agrees Trump will tear him a new one, if he rejects that doesn't look good either.