Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

The really worrying aspects are that (1) Level 1 is hardly a full business-as-usual and (2) this is a 6-9 month state of affairs. Very worrying.

Very worrying indeed. The plan just seems to be covering for the HSE and Dept of Health who appeared to take the summer off instead of planning. No point in providing supports to business if they are too cowardly to encourage people to get back to the office even if/when Covid numbers are under control. Sad times for city centre businesses.

Cyrus

Cyrus wrote: »

yep i called that one wrong, no change, even level 1 still says wfh if you can,

city centre is fooked

Assetbacked wrote: »

The really worrying aspects are that (1) Level 1 is hardly a full business-as-usual and (2) this is a 6-9 month state of affairs. Very worrying.

It's very worrying. I didn't expect WFH spiel to change this week with cases in Dublin rising but given wet pubs are opening outside of Dublin I woulf have thought the level that allows pubs to open would relax the WFH stance.

And as said the level thing is the plan for the next 6 to 9 months, so unless something changes then WFH to continue for all that time.

It must be the public transport concern as it's not rationale to allow folk social distance in a pub but not in an office, IMO.

timmyntc

Pelezico wrote: »

Worse than that, the OP was feeling sorry for people who does not have the home he/she has.

Now that is pretty elitist.

What?

brisan wrote:

I could not find the sarcastic font
If you followed the conversation you would see that the poster I replied to originally said that people in lower paid jobs were not in the property market.
I pointed out that they were invested in the property market and the effect that losing their job would have on a joint application for a mortgage
The OP was totally wrong in what they said and I sarcastically said that shop workers do often marry “above their station “ (insert sarcastic font )
Maybe if you followed the conversation instead of picking out out of context statements you would not be so quick to jump down somebody’s throat. I am the opposite of elitist

I pointed out that the majority of people in hospitality and retail who lost jobs are younger, less likely to be married, and earn proportionally lower than other sectors.
I never said anything about certain "workers not marrying above their station" - that's on you.
Of course there are plenty of people with higher and lower earning partners - but overall retail & hospitality have a higher proportion of younger people. You can drop the faux outrage about elitism(?), the reality is that as a sector, hospitality workers will have a lower stake in the housing market - that's not a slight on any individuals who work in hospitality/retail despite your attempts to make it so.

14627043 wrote:

The majority of junior counsel barristers are on the PUP, ryanair and aer lingus pilots have taken major paycuts and likely big job losses, private GP and health clinic incomes has fallen through the floor leading to assistant GP job loses.

Good point, I forgot completely about airline staff in particular. Have private health services taken big cuts in income? I thought govt was still subsidising them.

brisan

Augeo wrote: »

https://www.thejournal.ie/living-with-covid-plan-5204908-Sep2020/

"Taoiseach announces entire country is now on 'Level 2' of new Covid plan

People are being advised to work from home where possible across the country. The plan explains:

If you can work from home, you are advised to only attend work for essential on-site meetings, inductions and training"

It doesn't look like our city centres are going back to normal while we are at level 2 .......... that would suggest limited folk on public transport etc to continue and city centre businesses that depend on office workers etc to continue to struggle.

Commerical property rents are going to be a struggle for many to pay ........... to me it seems the Level 2 stage doesn't do much to stimulate the economy.

As will city centre bars restaurants retail etc
They will all struggle
I would say phase 2 will remain until a vaccine is found and administered
As was said keeping schools open and hospitals at below capacity is more important than the economy

Deub

timmyntc wrote: »

What?



I pointed out that the majority of people in hospitality and retail who lost jobs are younger, less likely to be married, and earn proportionally lower than other sectors.

How do you know this?

beauf

Deub wrote: »

How do you know this?

Its the nature of the work. large numbers of seasonal, often temporary jobs.

sheepskin1234

As long as interest rates are low, there's no downward pressure on prices.

brisan

timmyntc wrote: »

What?



I pointed out that the majority of people in hospitality and retail who lost jobs are younger, less likely to be married, and earn proportionally lower than other sectors.
I never said anything about certain "workers not marrying above their station" - that's on you.
Of course there are plenty of people with higher and lower earning partners - but overall retail & hospitality have a higher proportion of younger people. You can drop the faux outrage about elitism(?), the reality is that as a sector, hospitality workers will have a lower stake in the housing market - that's not a slight on any individuals who work in hospitality/retail despite your attempts to make it so.



Good point, I forgot completely about airline staff in particular. Have private health services taken big cuts in income? I thought govt was still subsidising them.

You said people in those sectors were not buying property
That is clearly wrong
Even not buying a lot are renting
If they cannot afford the rent , rents drop and therefore yields drop so prices drop.
You basically wrote off people in low paying jobs out of the property market and said they will not be buying 500k houses
That is wrong no ifs buts or maybes just wrong
Now you are trying to back track

brisan

beauf wrote: »

Its the nature of the work. large numbers of seasonal, often temporary jobs.

Debenhams workers with 20 years service .
Seasonal temporary workers
Put the shovel down and stop digging

Knex*

Augeo wrote: »

It's very worrying. I didn't expect WFH spiel to change this week with cases in Dublin rising but given wet pubs are opening outside of Dublin I woulf have thought the level that allows pubs to open would relax the WFH stance.

And as said the level thing is the plan for the next 6 to 9 months, so unless something changes then WFH to continue for all that time.

It must be the public transport concern as it's not rationale to allow folk social distance in a pub but not in an office, IMO.

My Girlfriend works for one of the large multinationals in Dublin, and all of them (over 1k workforce in Dublin) were told last week that they will be working from home until August at least.

lalababa

Cork city center is very busy. I've never seen it so busy without tourists. Why is it busy? I don't know.
There is defo a recession but tis very hard to see. It must be hidden on the books of businesses for the moment.
Apart from official gdp figures and the dip in the tourism industry ....has anyone any local/personal slants to the recession?? I know that newish 2nd hand cars are gone down in value, and there's never been so many rentals available in Cork.

MacronvFrugals

WHO have already warned Europe expect deaths to follow cases in October and November -

https://www.thejournal.ie/who-covid-19-deaths-5204100-Sep2020/

sheepskin1234

lalababa wrote: »

Cork city center is very busy. I've never seen it so busy without tourists. Why is it busy? I don't know.
There is defo a recession but tis very hard to see. It must be hidden on the books of businesses for the moment.
Apart from official gdp figures and the dip in the tourism industry ....has anyone any local/personal slants to the recession?? I know that newish 2nd hand cars are gone down in value, and there's never been so many rentals available in Cork.

This was a technical recession only.

People still earned the same money they did before Covid. In fact lives were improved during this "recession" as people didn't have to work for their money.

brisan

beauf wrote: »

Its the nature of the work. large numbers of seasonal, often temporary jobs.

Debenhams workers with 20 years service .
Seasonal temporary workers
Put the shovel down and stop digging

Pelezico

brisan wrote: »

If Trump gets back in the thoughts of his economic policies and the civil unrest and the economic consequences of same truly frighten me

Frightened? Really?

lalababa

lalababa wrote: »

Cork city center is very busy. I've never seen it so busy without tourists. Why is it busy? I don't know.
There is defo a recession but tis very hard to see. It must be hidden on the books of businesses for the moment........

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/with-unemployment-soaring-why-is-the-income-tax-take-still-high-1.4345699?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fwith-unemployment-soaring-why-is-the-income-tax-take-still-high-1.4345699

"With unemployment soaring, why is the income tax take still high?"

those in lower-paid areas of employment are suffering most from job losses and poorer prospects, while many better paid employees continue, supported in many cases by their ability to work from home.

In the midst of a pandemic economic crisis, with unemployment shooting higher, how come the amount of income tax being collected is way ahead of expectations and running just slightly below 2019 levels?

It has a lot to do with the extraordinary nature of the recession – and also with the unusual structure of the Irish income tax system. Together with soaring corporation tax, this may give Ireland some leeway.But the longer term costs of the crisis also point to higher taxes in future, even if Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe said there would be no income tax hike in the next budget.


............ it's a very strange recession........... it'll be 2021/2022 before the sh1t hits the fan really.

I read somewhere else graduate recruitment is way, way down, due to Covid.

brisan

Augeo wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/with-unemployment-soaring-why-is-the-income-tax-take-still-high-1.4345699?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Feconomy%2Fwith-unemployment-soaring-why-is-the-income-tax-take-still-high-1.4345699

"With unemployment soaring, why is the income tax take still high?"

those in lower-paid areas of employment are suffering most from job losses and poorer prospects, while many better paid employees continue, supported in many cases by their ability to work from home.

In the midst of a pandemic economic crisis, with unemployment shooting higher, how come the amount of income tax being collected is way ahead of expectations and running just slightly below 2019 levels?

It has a lot to do with the extraordinary nature of the recession – and also with the unusual structure of the Irish income tax system. Together with soaring corporation tax, this may give Ireland some leeway.But the longer term costs of the crisis also point to higher taxes in future, even if Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe said there would be no income tax hike in the next budget.


............ it's a very strange recession........... it'll be 2021/2022 before the sh1t hits the fan really.

I read somewhere else graduate recruitment is way, way down, due to Covid.

Exactly
Economy is on life support
Once that’s taken away and the jobs start to go it’ll start a domino effect.
Is Ireland on the EU green list , if not the airline and tourism industry may get ready to kick its ass goodbye.
How long can wet pubs in Dublin last ??

PropQueries

Knex* wrote: »

My Girlfriend works for one of the large multinationals in Dublin, and all of them (over 1k workforce in Dublin) were told last week that they will be working from home until August at least.

That would mean that tourism travel is basically on hold until at least the Summer of 2022.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

i would say it is a mix of skilled workers, low corporation tax rate and a long history of MNCs being in Ireland.

Regarding your other points, what use is the UK in accessing the EU?

From the US, they have a challenge with a lack of highly skilled workers is some sectors and rolling back visas by Trump. The US is more likely to try and reshore services from Asia, specifically China. The pandemic has shown up the supply chains of many MNCs with single points of failure - that won't be allowed happen again.
I don't have a clue what impact it will have on the housing market though!

No doubt it is a mix, and no doubt if you believe the tax is the weakest link in that mix then it is reasonable to assume it will be business as usual, as I acknowledged in my post.

Re the UK - right now we have no idea what use, if any it will be, in accessing the EU. But given that the UK market dominates the sales figures for most big tech I imagine money will talk. Despite increasing evidence to the contrary I still believe there must be somebody with brains in either the UK govt or civil service capable of arranging something to the UKs advantage. The main point is that there is uncertainty surrounding the future.

The second and third biggest markets are France and Germany, with no problems accessing the EU. If people get huffy about our tax rate, it's not beyond the bounds of possibilities that tech MNCs reshuffle their arrangements amongst those the UK, France and Germany, to keep their biggest markets happy.

Re the US, the tight supply of HB1 visas is a Trump anti-immigration policy.

Pollsters tell us that he is likely to be toast come November, and if so, what would Biden do? Who knows. It is uncertain.

Re their relationships in Asia, again a lot depends on the election.

I am not saying I think suddenly all MNC tech will rush for the exits, and I get that there arguments why they will stay, but other than the fact maintaining the status quo is the path of least resistance, I don't think any of those arguments are any stronger than the arguments that there may be trouble ahead.

My post was in the context of people saying sure, it's only all the low paid travel and hospitality folk losing their jobs, tech is flying and the tech lads are buying houses like they're going out of fashion, no downward pressure on property prices.

My point is given the global recession caused by the coronavirus, added to the various geopolitical issues currently bubbling, I think it is naive to assume that the tech sector in Ireland is not facing any headwinds.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

No doubt it is a mix, and no doubt if you believe the tax is the weakest link in that mix then it is reasonable to assume it will be business as usual, as I acknowledged in my post.

Re the UK - right now we have no idea what use, if any it will be, in accessing the EU. But given that the UK market dominates the sales figures for most big tech I imagine money will talk. Despite increasing evidence to the contrary I still believe there must be somebody with brains in either the UK govt or civil service capable of arranging something to the UKs advantage. The main point is that there is uncertainty surrounding the future.

The second and third biggest markets are France and Germany, with no problems accessing the EU. If people get huffy about our tax rate, it's not beyond the bounds of possibilities that tech MNCs reshuffle their arrangements amongst those the UK, France and Germany, to keep their biggest markets happy.

Re the US, the tight supply of HB1 visas is a Trump anti-immigration policy.

Pollsters tell us that he is likely to be toast come November, and if so, what would Biden do? Who knows. It is uncertain.

Re their relationships in Asia, again a lot depends on the election.

I am not saying I think suddenly all MNC tech will rush for the exits, and I get that there arguments why they will stay, but other than the fact maintaining the status quo is the path of least resistance, I don't think any of those arguments are any stronger than the arguments that there may be trouble ahead.

My post was in the context of people saying sure, it's only all the low paid travel and hospitality folk losing their jobs, tech is flying and the tech lads are buying houses like they're going out of fashion, no downward pressure on property prices.

My point is given the global recession caused by the coronavirus, added to the various geopolitical issues currently bubbling, I think it is naive to assume that the tech sector in Ireland is not facing any headwinds.

agree with most of what you say. i would like to discuss this further but this isn't the forum!

timmyntc

Pelezico wrote: »

Basically, you came on and patted yourself on the back for being so lucky with your house purchase. That is fine by the way.

You then said you felt sorry for people trying to buy a house. That is fine too. I merely noted that if you feel sorry for people, you feel superior to them. That is all okay by me but it is elitist.

If you really want to feel superior to someone, feel sorry for that person.

I never mentioned any house purchase - nor patted myself on the back.
Nor did I ever say I felt sorry or superior to anyone. I think you've got your wires crossed here.

brisan wrote:

You said people in those sectors were not buying property
That is clearly wrong
Even not buying a lot are renting
If they cannot afford the rent , rents drop and therefore yields drop so prices drop.
You basically wrote off people in low paying jobs out of the property market and said they will not be buying 500k houses
That is wrong no ifs buts or maybes just wrong
Now you are trying to back track

I said proportionally less people in those sectors were buying property - and as those sectors have proportionally lower earnings, the impact of job losses in those sectors on the housing market would be minimal.
I don't know where you got that bit about 500k houses from - again I think you are confusing me with another poster.

Lolle06

brisan wrote: »

I could not find the sarcastic font
If you followed the conversation you would see that the poster I replied to originally said that people in lower paid jobs were not in the property market.
I pointed out that they were invested in the property market and the effect that losing their job would have on a joint application for a mortgage
The OP was totally wrong in what they said and I sarcastically said that shop workers do often marry “above their station “ (insert sarcastic font )
Maybe if you followed the conversation instead of picking out out of context statements you would not be so quick to jump down somebody’s throat. I am the opposite of elitist

But the reference you used is rather questionable. The other poster did not mention any „station“ at all. You did. Sarcasm or no sarcasm.

And it is a fact, that ppl on lower incomes can often not afford to jump on the „property ladder“. Heck, they can often not even afford to pay the rent these days! That’s why the social housing list is so long.

You on the other hand, just jumped to the conclusion, that the other poster was „elitist“ for pointing out, that lower income workers often can’t afford a house, by telling him (sarcastically or not) that shop workers often marry „above their station“ and therefore would be able to buy a property...

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

agree with most of what you say. i would like to discuss this further but this isn't the forum!

Indeed, even with my enthusiasm for discussing global macro, more depth on this is stretching it relating to property. Let me know if you pick it up in a thread somewhere else.

brisan

Lolle06 wrote: »

But the reference you used is rather questionable. The other poster did not mention any „station“ at all. You did. Sarcasm or no sarcasm.

And it is a fact, that ppl on lower incomes can often not afford to jump on the „property ladder“. Heck, they can often not even afford to pay the rent these days! That’s why the social housing list is so long.

You on the other hand, just jumped to the conclusion, that the other poster was „elitist“ for pointing out, that lower income workers often can’t afford a house, by telling him (sarcastically or not) that shop workers often marry „above their station“ and therefore would be able to buy a property...

The op said that people on lower incomes don’t buy houses in the 500k range and don’t affect the property market
I proved she was wrong
If you agree with her then you too are wrong.
I know people in hospitality who regularly take home 800 euro plus a week with wages overtime and tips
Do you know the average tip take on Sunday afternoon tea in the shelbourne
I do and I was shocked
Do you know the average tip a wedding planner gets in a top hotel , often doing 2 or 3 a week
I do because I paid two of them
Granted some of those behind the scenes are on poor money but a lot are not
Even those on low money some will rent and if they can’t afford rent , rents will drop as they are at the moment
Lower yields means lower house prices

Queasy Tadpole

Can anyone give an average time between a property being completely sold and finished and it going up on the property price register?

There was a property we were interested in that sold over two months ago and I am very interested to know the final price since it was perfect but we were outbid even after stretching our budget.

Cantstandsya

Hubertj wrote: »

agree with most of what you say. i would like to discuss this further but this isn't the forum!

I think the balkanisation of boards.ie is one the saddest online trends of the last few years. People so worried about cross contaminating their little fiefdoms with "off topic" content that we have ten million sections catering to every niche interest imaginable... And not a sinner posting in most of them.

Pelezico

Cantstandsya wrote: »

I think the balkanisation of boards.ie is one the saddest online trends of the last few years. People so worried about cross contaminating their little fiefdoms with "off topic" content that we have ten million sections catering to every niche interest imaginable... And not a sinner posting in most of them.

Saddest? You have had a good life if you are saddened by boards.ie.

Assetbacked

schmittel wrote: »

I am not saying I think suddenly all MNC tech will rush for the exits, and I get that there arguments why they will stay, but other than the fact maintaining the status quo is the path of least resistance, I don't think any of those arguments are any stronger than the arguments that there may be trouble ahead.

My post was in the context of people saying sure, it's only all the low paid travel and hospitality folk losing their jobs, tech is flying and the tech lads are buying houses like they're going out of fashion, no downward pressure on property prices.

My point is given the global recession caused by the coronavirus, added to the various geopolitical issues currently bubbling, I think it is naive to assume that the tech sector in Ireland is not facing any headwinds.

https://www.thecurrency.news/articles/23697/days-after-being-told-to-suspend-data-transfers-to-the-us-facebook-has-now-issued-a-high-court-case-against-the-irish-data-regulator

The Irish DPC is already after Facebook in respect of its business model following the striking down of the Privacy Shield.

One quote in the article shows how vulnerable Facebook in particular could be;

Facebook’s revenue, which is derived entirely from ads, has grown from $2 billion in 2012 to $70 billion since in 2019.

Europe is an important market for Facebook. It has 394 million active users there, 16 per cent of the global total. Europe accounts for 23 per cent of global revenue, or $16 billion. Dublin is home to Facebook’s European headquarters.

It is limited in its revenue-generating streams. I thought it was mainly ads-based but not entirely!

Cantstandsya

Pelezico wrote: »

Saddest? You have had a good life if you are saddened by boards.ie.

Saddest online trends.

beauf

brisan wrote: »

Debenhams workers with 20 years service .
Seasonal temporary workers
Put the shovel down and stop digging

Debenhams was on life Support before Covid.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2019/0409/1041510-battle-for-debenhams/