Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

mariaalice

Bass Reeves wrote: »

The fall in price between 2008 and 2009 was about 10% mainly as builders held there prices. 10% would have been about it if I remember right. But the issue was banks stopped lending so nobody could get a loan and lending multiples tightened and interest rates mainly trackers increased, as it continued into 2010 jobs disappeared and lending criteria tightened again.

I have a nephew that bought in 2006/7 he got the last of the 0.75% EU trackers. While he suffered a bit from 2009-2012 now he paying less than 0 75% interest on his loan. The difference between that rate and 2.9% on a 250k loan over 25years is over 200/month at present.

As he says he suffered from 2009-12 but since that he has outperformed the fixed and variable rates. Since 2016 the savings have been substantial

At the end of the day he thinks he be not much better or worse off buying in 2006/7 compared to buying in 2011. By 2011 he and his wife were expecting there third child.

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/more-price-cuts-certain-1.960175 This was Thu, Sep 6, 2007. I don't see this happening again but its interesting anyway.

wassie

Laughed out loud when I read the last paragraph of that article:

The price cuts will have little long term effect on house building firms, which have enjoyed phenomenal profit margins in recent years. They view the present uncertainty as merely a blip which they will get over in due course.

mariaalice

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/wicklowpeople/news/residents-outraged-by-huge-house-price-drop-27756577.html

I found this one as well if the purchasers were getting mortgages with an interest rater of less than 1% they won't have done too badly despite what happened.

Smouse156

JimmyVik wrote: »

whooosh
tbh if I knew what you knew Id have bought 5 houses in 2009 and have sold them all last January.

An even bigger benefit Jimmy, you’d have left this forum over a decade ago and got on with your life 😂😂

Cyrus

alias no.9 wrote: »

I think that's their whole point, when the goal is to buy a home, even when you time the market as badly as you possibly can, doing nothing can sometimes be even worse.

All a person can do is deal with their own circumstances, look dispassionately at what they can buy and how they can finance it over a reasonably long outlook, once the contract is signed, its all about the monthly payments.

The apparent prescience of people who appear to have timed the market correctly does not reveal itself until after the fact, so it's not prescience at all, it's just luck, despite what they might try and tell you.

The only thing that marks the people who apparently get the market timing right from the rest of the world is that they probably weren't trying to time the market because the bottom can only be determined by looking back and even in 2013/14 people were still talking about dead cat bounces so the smartest guys timing the market were still holding off.

while buying a house is the biggest investment most people will make its not just purely a financial transaction. Your and your families quality of life has to be a factor as well.

JimmyVik

Smouse156 wrote: »

An even bigger benefit Jimmy, you’d have left this forum over a decade ago and got on with your life ����

Sure I only joined it when my life became 4 walls in March


But true. I would be looking at houses in the Caribbean was I that good at the Irish property market

Cantstandsya

wassie wrote: »

Laughed out loud when I read the last paragraph of that article:

The price cuts will have little long term effect on house building firms, which have enjoyed phenomenal profit margins in recent years. They view the present uncertainty as merely a blip which they will get over in due course.

Some things never change.

Villa05

wassie wrote:

They view the present uncertainty as merely a blip which they will get over in due course.

Lots of echos with this thread

Smouse156 wrote:

An even bigger benefit Jimmy, you’d have left this forum over a decade ago and got on with your life 😂😂

You'd think

Bass Reeves

mariaalice wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/regionals/wicklowpeople/news/residents-outraged-by-huge-house-price-drop-27756577.html

I found this one as well if the purchasers were getting mortgages with an interest rater of less than 1% they won't have done too badly despite what happened.

It wanit a rate of 1%but a variable tracker that tracked the ECB core rate his was 0.75% above that, at present this core rate is below 0% so his interest rate is approximately 0.5%. he is beating the Irish rates by over 2%, and 12 months+ it was 3+% difference

fliball123

mariaalice wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/more-price-cuts-certain-1.960175 This was Thu, Sep 6, 2007. I don't see this happening again but its interesting anyway.

Well I would take the 6k newly built home as an indicator that we had a huge over supply at that time

cubatahavana

Would anyone back out of a sale agreed of a house if they discover that planning permission for an apartment block has been granted in front?

sweetie

cubatahavana wrote: »

Would anyone back out of a sale agreed of a house if they discover that planning permission for an apartment block has been granted in front?

definitely, the reason they are selling probably

cubatahavana

It's a new development, I'd be buying a newly built home

brisan

cubatahavana wrote: »

Would anyone back out of a sale agreed of a house if they discover that planning permission for an apartment block has been granted in front?

Definitely.
I know of one apartment complex in Howth where properties had not come on to the market for quite a long time .
Suddenly 2 or 3 appeared at the same time .
Reason , PP for block of apartments and houses across the road
Did you or your solicitor not check Planning applications in the area before going sale agreed

guyfawkes5

Planning permission discovery is usually done after sale agreed and before closing.

brisan

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

Planning permission discovery is usually done after sale agreed and before closing.

But surely you would do a bit of research before bidding .
We always did

http://www.dublincity.ie/swiftlg/apas/run/wphappcriteria.display

hometruths

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

Planning permission discovery is usually done after sale agreed and before closing.

I get that solicitors do a supposedly thorough trawl, but does anybody actually make an offer on a property without checking local council websites for details on any planning decisions or applications that might have an impact?

guyfawkes5

brisan wrote: »

But surely you would do a bit of research before bidding .
We always did

http://www.dublincity.ie/swiftlg/apas/run/wphappcriteria.display

schmittel wrote: »

I get that solicitors do a supposedly thorough trawl, but does anybody actually make an offer on a property without checking local council websites for details on any planning decisions or applications that might have an impact?

I fully agree that it's smart and prevents surprises to do some limited searching yourself prior to going sale agreed.

I was responding to the below:

brisan wrote: »

Definitely.
Did you or your solicitor not check Planning applications in the area before going sale agreed

cubatahavana

cubatahavana wrote: »

Would anyone back out of a sale agreed of a house if they discover that planning permission for an apartment block has been granted in front?

I was in the process of putting a deposit on a house when I found out about a four storey apartment block was going to be built right behind it.
South facing back garden useless in that case!

guyfawkes5

bubblypop wrote: »

I was in the process of putting a deposit on a house when I found out about a four storey apartment block was going to be built right behind it.
South facing back garden useless in that case!

Absolute nightmare scenario.

Overlooked in the best case, and overlooked and the sun blocked in the worst.

Do you think the seller was trying to pull a fast one?

brisan

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

Absolute nightmare scenario.

Overlooked in the best case, and overlooked and the sun blocked in the worst.

Do you think the seller was trying to pull a fast one?

I can only assume the seller objected to PP and when it was granted decided to sell up sharpish
I know I would have
Not exactly a fast one
Let the buyer beware

cubatahavana

schmittel wrote: »

I get that solicitors do a supposedly thorough trawl, but does anybody actually make an offer on a property without checking local council websites for details on any planning decisions or applications that might have an impact?

Well, we did. We are both not Irish and are not very used to the system here. Good that we can back off now.

cubatahavana

bubblypop wrote: »

I was in the process of putting a deposit on a house when I found out about a four storey apartment block was going to be built right behind it.
South facing back garden useless in that case!

Similar scenario. Sent half the deposit and realized about it

Villa05

cubatahavana wrote:

Well, we did. We are both not Irish and are not very used to the system here. Good that we can back off now.

Use a different excuse for backing off.

Bank refused/reduced mortgage

guyfawkes5

Do you need an excuse for withdrawing a deposit for a new build?

brisan

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

Do you need an excuse for withdrawing a deposit for a new build?

Tell the builder you cant afford it .
There are usually clauses in the deposit that it is fully refundable until you close
Most solicitors would demand this .

wassie

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

Absolute nightmare scenario.

Overlooked in the best case, and overlooked and the sun blocked in the worst.

Do you think the seller was trying to pull a fast one?

Depends on your point view really.

If the amenity of my house was going to be badly affected by a development to the point I lost enjoyment in my house, I'd be selling out as quick as I could to extract maximum value.

To rephrase brisan above, some may call it a 'fast one', I would call it 'Caveat Emptor'.

ebayissues

brisan wrote: »

Definitely.
I know of one apartment complex in Howth where properties had not come on to the market for quite a long time .
Suddenly 2 or 3 appeared at the same time .
Reason , PP for block of apartments and houses across the road
Did you or your solicitor not check Planning applications in the area before going sale agreed

Hang on - Is your solicitor meant to do this?? Why will a solicitore check this?

brisan

ebayissues wrote: »

Hang on - Is your solicitor meant to do this?? Why will a solicitore check this?

Because its a standard part of the conveyancing process.
I was at one stage interested in a cottage on the Malahide road.
Location was perfect .it was renovated to an extremely high standard
Small front Garden .big back garden ,then I found out there may be a CPO for part of the front garden for a Bus Connect lane.
Solicitor would have had to check and find out if I had not bothered to check .
That could have been the reason the vendor was selling.

Lia_lia

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

No one will know for sure.

If prices fall enormously, but you are living and plan to live in the property for the long term, can afford the repayments, and your employment is not threatened by Covid-19, then it won't affect you.

Negative equity will only effect you if you wish to resell and move on in a shorter timeframe (maybe 5 or 10 years), or wish to remortgage your house.

The repayments will not be too much higher than our rent (which is currently under 1K a month). We are a couple with a baby and the house we are currently in is just getting too small. We’ll be going from a 2 bed to a 4 bed. We will be first time buyers and will get the help to buy too. Both work for MNC and jobs are very secure. Well, hopefully! Just feel like we’ll regret it if prices go way down but will probably take a while anyway if they do.