Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

combat14

looks like dublin heading for unofficial lockdown and it is only mid sept wonder will this have any impact on house viewings this time

neutral guy

PHG wrote: »

What about transaction costs of buying and selling?

Why would you bother moving to a house with the exact same value? It is either an upgrade or a downgrade financially ny most peoples accounts.

As for gold, I heard on a podcast today that less than 8% of Americans own any sort of gold. Would assume similar or less here, so what is the point in taxing it?

Agree with point that best investment is yourself

I am bought nice land in nice place for nice house
For crazy money
When I was a stupid idiot in 2007.
If I will not build house there then it will be land for my pension/kids education
Learning lessons from last recession in 2008 I found that best thing when economy growing and gold are cheap buy gold and when economy goes down to recession sell gold and seat on bag of cash waiting for good price for property.
Same as in 2011 !
So lessons been learned
I started buy gold from 2013 and I sold it all completely in 11/2019
Now I am seating on bag of cash and waiting for good property prices
Same as in 2010.
I dont listen songs about supply/demand property will never be cheaper.I heard this songs in 2007.
Lessons learned.

hometruths

PHG wrote: »

As for gold, I heard on a podcast today that less than 8% of Americans own any sort of gold. Would assume similar or less here, so what is the point in taxing it?

I presume that figure includes random bits of jewellery and dental fillings - investment gold is held by less than 1% I think.

Probably a discussion for another forum but short answer is US govt might like to tax it not for the revenue it generates but as a means of controlling the gold price, for various reasons relating to protecting status of dollar as reserve currency. Also if it was hampering their efforts to increase the velocity of money to meet inflation targets.

HotDudeLife

neutral guy wrote: »

I am bought nice land in nice place for nice house
For crazy money
When I was a stupid idiot in 2007.
If I will not build house there then it will be land for my pension/kids education
Learning lessons from last recession in 2008 I found that best thing when economy growing and gold are cheap buy gold and when economy goes down to recession sell gold and seat on bag of cash waiting for good price for property.
Same as in 2011 !
So lessons been learned
I started buy gold from 2013 and I sold it all completely in 11/2019
Now I am seating on bag of cash and waiting for good property prices
Same as in 2010.
I dont listen songs about supply/demand property will never be cheaper.I heard this songs in 2007.
Lessons learned.

Fair play to you, those sitting on cash will be in a once in a generation position within the next 1-2 years. The people giving you hassle here are just jealous or are property price drop deniers (quite a few of them), pay them no attention. You are in a fantastic place to be financially by the sounds of it.

Bubbaclaus

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Fair play to you, those sitting on cash will be in a once in a generation position within the next 1-2 years. The people giving you hassle here are just jealous or are property price drop deniers (quite a few of them), pay them no attention. You are in a fantastic place to be financially by the sounds of it.

He doesn't pay tax though, so CAB will be along shortly to take it all away.

Sierra Oscar

Not a surprise, but the Federal Reserve has committed to keeping its interest rates in or around 0%.

Bloomberg - Fed Signals Rates to Stay Near Zero for at Least Three Years

The Federal Reserve left interest rates near zero and signaled it would hold them there through at least 2023 to help the U.S. economy recover from the coronavirus pandemic.

Assetbacked

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

Not a surprise, but the Federal Reserve has committed to keeping its interest rates in or around 0%.

Bloomberg - Fed Signals Rates to Stay Near Zero for at Least Three Years

That's another 3 years of younger people hitting voting age and being shafted by the asset bubbles and older people, who are more likely to benefit from it, dying. Seeing someone like a Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren or AOC having a real shot at the presidential seat won't seem too extreme if the current system continues. The youth are so polarised in the US and some will go to extreme populism and others to anti-establishment parties. The US is already so unstable and threatening war with other nations with its bullying tactics, it's also actively trying to break up the EU, a release valve is needed from this current situation and I really hope it isn't an armed conflict.

neutral guy

PHG wrote: »

We have it already, its called D.I.R.T (deposit interest retention tax) and I think around 33%. That and the stamp duty on credit cards is appalling!

Deposit interest but not all deposit ! There will be new taxes for every one.Just to make people think or you spend and have or you keep and lose.Believe me it will come shortly and this are/will move property market.This time government will not borrow to pay debs this time government will rip you off to pay debts.Many signals about new types of taxation coming from many sides.They was trying create inflation last 10 years to help governments pay debs making money worthless and it became deflation this time they will do heavy taxation because people has many savings.I hope minimum wage will not 6 euros per hour soon !

neutral guy

I will not surprised if government will tell Whatever ! Who cant survive must die to help who can survive
The first signals are clear :

Not in our interests to support loss-making businesses – Central Bank governor

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/not-in-our-interests-to-support-loss-making-businesses-central-bank-governor-1.4356469

Guys,I will not surprised if government will say:

Those who did not find job in 2 years time did not deserve get social welfare

We live in very dangerous times guys.

Nobody will spend money on ordinary people how they spent on banks in 2009

Because many unemployed people has savings !

Graham

Mod Note

friendly reminder folks, the discussion is Property Market 2020. There are better forums to speculate about general taxation or reminisce about your spending around the global financial crash.

Hubertj

<SNIP>

The Belly

<SNIP>

easy tiger.

neutral guy

I think there will be not much difference in price in 2020 because :
1) Market will move from inertia
2) There will be buyers who use them last chance get mortgage before they will lose jobs
3) Some people never learn

We will have very nice price review in 2021.

Pelezico

The Belly wrote: »

<SNIP>

easy tiger.

Is he at it again?

hometruths

beauf wrote: »

That's still a lot of transactions and registrations. What does it say about supply though...

Volume of transactions down 36% in Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019
vs Supply of properties down 15.9% Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019

Doesn't exactly scream tight supply.

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Volume of transactions down 36% in Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019
vs Supply of properties down 15.9% Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019

Doesn't exactly scream tight supply.

I guess there is some math mistakes. Maybe new supply down by 100-15.9=84.1%?

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I guess there is some math mistakes. Maybe new supply down by 100-15.9=84.1%?

Apologies, I am not sure get it. Can you spell it out for me?

Edit - I get it now I think. You’re measuring supply as new properties coming to market rather than total volume of properties available?

So you think a better comparison is demand down 38% and supply down 84%?

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Apologies, I am not sure get it. Can you spell it out for me?

I look at the diagram from the link you posted to myhome report, it's doesn't seem that in Q2 it's only 15.9% decrease, it would be closer to 84.1%. I'm not sure where did you get 15.9% in your provided myhome report?

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

I look at the diagram from the link you posted to myhome report, it's doesn't seem that in Q2 it's only 15.9% decrease, it would be closer to 84.1%. I'm not sure where did you get 15.9% in your provided myhome report?

Page 18.

beauf

schmittel wrote: »

Volume of transactions down 36% in Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019
vs Supply of properties down 15.9% Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019

Doesn't exactly scream tight supply.

Is that not falling supply? From the report you linked to.

Housing supply also
restricted by COVID-19

Some of our measures indicate that
the COVID-19 outbreak has tightened
housing supply. Figure 4 illustrates
that the stock of properties listed for
sale on MyHome fell to a fresh low of
18,480 in June, down 18% on the year.
This reflects the sharp 64% decline
in new listings for sale to 3,707 in Q2
2020, down 64% from the 10,224
recorded in Q2 2019.

This shows the crucial summer
trading period may see a tighter
housing market if confidence
is quickly restored, potentially
supporting prices. Not surprisingly,
the average time to sale agreed rose
markedly in Q2 2020 to 5.3 months
nationally, up from 4.7 months
in Q1 2020. However, rather than
indicating weak demand, this merely
reflects that the housing market was
effectively shut down through April
and May.
Our current forecast is for housing
completions to equal 13,800 in
2020, well down from 21,200 in 2019.
In Q1 2020, housing completions
equalled 4,986 - up 17% on the year.

However, given the shutdown of
the construction sector in Q2 2020,
completions will no doubt have
fallen precipitously. This will add to a
tighter supply of new housing for the
market to absorb, again potentially
supporting prices.

hometruths

beauf wrote: »

Is that not falling supply? From the report you linked to.

Yes of course it’s falling supply!

Where on earth did I say that a drop of 15.9% does not constitute falling supply?

I said “supply of properties down 15.9%

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

Page 18.

Ok, I see you looking at total existing adds. Wouldn't think it's a good number to measure, in particular for relatively short term. It would make more sense to compare in at least 1 year from lockdown.
Besides, overall number of add is moving further down, where as transaction numbers growing.
Overall number of adds now is around 17.500, down from 22.500 1 year ago. So that's 22.2% decrease, we may see soon number of transaction and number of adds decreased by similar percent for annual comparison.

hometruths

After the helpful comments from Marius and beauf I’ll rephrase my point.

Total number of PPR transactions Q2 2020 down 36% vs Q2 2019
Total number of properties available on myhome Q2 2020 down 15.9% vs Q2 2019

Doesn’t exactly scream tight supply.

beauf

schmittel wrote: »

Volume of transactions down 36% in Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019
vs Supply of properties down 15.9% Q2 2020 vs Q2 2019

Doesn't exactly scream tight supply.

What would scream tight supply to you, if a decade or more of a housing crisis doesn't, and falling supply.

hometruths

Marius34 wrote: »

Ok, I see you looking at total existing adds. Wouldn't think it's a good number to measure, in particular for relatively short term. It would make more sense to compare in at least 1 year from lockdown.
Besides, overall number of add is moving further down, where as transaction numbers growing.
Overall number of adds now is around 17.500, down from 22.500 1 year ago. So that's 22.2% decrease, we may see soon number of transaction and number of adds decreased by similar percent for annual comparison.

So no maths mistakes, which is something I guess.

If total number of ads on myhome is not a good number to measure, what number would you think is good to measure supply?

I was replying to a post specifically asking about the supply in that short term. And all of the above is exactly why I did not say hey look demand has dropped twice as much as supply, or some other nonsense. I simply pointed out that those figures do not exactly scream tight supply, which they don’t.

Of course we may soon see this, or possibly we may soon see that, on the other hand we could see the other. And of course it would make more sense to compare 1 year from lockdown.

But whenever anybody posts an opinion on here on what they think might happen over the next year, they’re scoffed at because they’re always saying wait and see, and apparently demand is sky high right now and we are in the midst of chronic undersupply, right now.

But if you post the numbers available right now that suggest otherwise, you’re told it’s what happens over the next year that counts?!

And yes of course the numbers of ads and transactions are changing over time. Sounds like you think the difference between the supply drop and demand drop will narrow over the next few quarters. I happen to think it will increase.

Forgive me for saying we’ll just have to wait and see.

hometruths

beauf wrote: »

What would scream tight supply to you, if a decade or more of a housing crisis doesn't, and falling supply.

Supply falling faster than demand. Or demand rising faster than supply.

Either of those would probably do it.

But developers dropping prices, and transaction volumes, mortgage approvals, mortgage drawdowns all falling in record numbers does not exactly scream tight supply to me.

You want to talk about what has happened over the last decade, and Marius wants to talk about what will happen over the next year, but my post that you’ve both taken exception to was about what happened in Q2 2020!

beauf

I think what will happen will be something between a soft landing (hate that phrase) and the last crash.
Could be anywhere in that range. If I had to nail my colours to the mast, I'd say somewhere in the middle.
What we are seeing now is a delayed reaction to I would say it would be wise to very conservative at the moment.

The Belly

beauf wrote: »

I think what will happen will be something between a soft landing (hate that phrase) and the last crash.
Could be anywhere in that range. If I had to nail my colours to the mast, I'd say somewhere in the middle.
What we are seeing now is a delayed reaction to I would say it would be wise to very conservative at the moment.

Tend to agree. It can go either way now.

beauf

schmittel wrote: »

Supply falling faster than demand. Or demand rising faster than supply.

Either of those would probably do it.

But developers dropping prices, and transaction volumes, mortgage approvals, mortgage drawdowns all falling in record numbers does not exactly scream tight supply to me.

You want to talk about what has happened over the last decade, and Marius wants to talk about what will happen over the next year, but my post that you’ve both taken exception to was about what happened in Q2 2020!

I didn't understand it.
I'm just saying you have to look at it in the broader context.

People are reading trends into what was basically a timeout.
Its not an indicator of anything other than a timeout.
You can only judge trends after economy has been up and running a while.
Arguably it still isn't with all the supports still in place.

beauf

What some are seeing as falling demand is actually the banks backlogged.
Its also lack of supply, there isn't anything to buy that the buyers want.
There maybe supply in other areas, like 1M homes, and penthouses. Those things should not be conflated.

There maybe falling demand, and falling affordability (pre lockdown suggested the market had peaked) its being masked at the moment though.