Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

brisan

According to the Irish Times NatWest actively considering selling Ulster Bank with the loss of 2500 jobs
Less competition in the mortgage market

hometruths

Nat West consider closing down Ulster Bank - the jobs of 2,800 employees at risk

If workers in the tourism or hospitality sector are less likely than average to be buying house, one presumes your average young Ulster Bank employee is more likely than average?

Thespoofer

brisan wrote: »

And apart from the one property that they live in what will they do with the other properties that they buy ??

I already know your answer and it is one fraught with problems

But there lies the problem. A lot of people don't have 'apart from the one property' to worry about.
A huge percentage now don't have even the one property, and there's another percentage hungry for property to exploit this.

It goes back to basic instincts, call it what you will but all what people want is to have a home they can call their own.
Property has become so out of reach now for so many this in itself will always generate interest.

HotDudeLife

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

People expecting large 50% drops will be kept waiting I'd say. The situation is very different to a decade ago.

People will still need places to live and the level of construction will slow a lot if prices start dropping by 10%. Low supply will mean there will be enough demand for that limited supply to prop prices up and keep the decreases minimal.

In our last crisis there was too many houses. People trying to compare just don't seem to be up to speed on the vastly different scenario this time around.

You're right, it's going to be ten times worse.

HotDudeLife

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Very good. As I said, there is no economic similarities between then and now. Yet I'm sure you will continue to compare anyway.

Come on mate, you're in denial here.

Bubbaclaus

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Come on mate, you're in denial here.

Really? Tell me what is going to happen so.

Employment actually increased amongst third level educated people in Ireland in Q2 this year, mid pandemic. I would guess at least 90% of first time buyers in high demand areas have third level degrees.

Our income tax receipts this year are pretty much unchanged from last year.

Unfortunately, as the stats bare out, it is the low paid that have been affected by the pandemic. Everyone else is business as usual, apart from working from home and saving more money than usual.

People expecting these people to suddenly not buy houses are in for a surprise.

People claiming its 2008 again clearly either don't understand what happened in 2008 or don't understand what is happening now.

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Really? Tell me what is going to happen so.

Employment actually increased amongst third level educated people in Ireland in Q2 this year, mid pandemic. I would guess at least 90% of first time buyers in high demand areas have third level degrees.

Our income tax receipts this year are pretty much unchanged from last year.

Unfortunately, as the stats bare out, it is the low paid that have been affected by the pandemic. Everyone else is business as usual, apart from working from home and saving more money than usual.

People expecting these people to suddenly not buy houses are in for a surprise.

People claiming its 2008 again clearly either don't understand what happened in 2008 or don't understand what is happening now.

So the low paid have no vested interest in the property market
Example
Mary has a high tech job earns 100k
John is a Barista earns 30 k
On those wages they qualify for a mortgage of 455k
John loses his job
Mortgage available 350k
So what happens ???

hometruths

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Really? Tell me what is going to happen so.

Employment actually increased amongst third level educated people in Ireland in Q2 this year, mid pandemic. I would guess at least 90% of first time buyers in high demand areas have third level degrees.

Our income tax receipts this year are pretty much unchanged from last year.

Unfortunately, as the stats bare out, it is the low paid that have been affected by the pandemic. Everyone else is business as usual, apart from working from home and saving more money than usual.

People expecting these people to suddenly not buy houses are in for a surprise.

People claiming its 2008 again clearly either don't understand what happened in 2008 or don't understand what is happening now.

Do you have link to article about the third level employment? WOuld genuinely like to read it.

brisan

schmittel wrote: »

Do you have link to article about the third level employment? WOuld genuinely like to read it.

I would like to see where the 90% of buyers in high demand areas having a third level degree comes from
Although I do have a fair idea where it came from

Pelezico

brisan wrote: »

I would like to see where the 90% of buyers in high demand areas having a third level degree comes from
Although I do have a fair idea where it came from

yeah...he plucked that number out of his hole.

Shure why not? Isn't he one of our own?

Bubbaclaus

schmittel wrote: »

Do you have link to article about the third level employment? WOuld genuinely like to read it.

It's the CSOs Q2 Labour Force Survey.

Bubbaclaus

brisan wrote: »

I would like to see where the 90% of buyers in high demand areas having a third level degree comes from
Although I do have a fair idea where it came from

Clearly you have misread my post if that's what you took from it.

Pelezico

brisan wrote: »

So the low paid have no vested interest in the property market
Example
Mary has a high tech job earns 100k
John is a Barista earns 30 k
On those wages they qualify for a mortgage of 455k
John loses his job
Mortgage available 350k
So what happens ???

Mary is not going to form a relationship with John, the barista. Give me a break Brisan. She will be going off with some hotshot IT geek or a doctor.

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Clearly you have misread my post if that's what you took from it.

at least 90% of first time buyers in high demand areas have third level degrees.
Copy and pasted from your original quote

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Really? Tell me what is going to happen so.

Employment actually increased amongst third level educated people in Ireland in Q2 this year, mid pandemic. I would guess at least 90% of first time buyers in high demand areas have third level degrees.

Our income tax receipts this year are pretty much unchanged from last year.

Unfortunately, as the stats bare out, it is the low paid that have been affected by the pandemic. Everyone else is business as usual, apart from working from home and saving more money than usual.

People expecting these people to suddenly not buy houses are in for a surprise.

People claiming its 2008 again clearly either don't understand what happened in 2008 or don't understand what is happening now.

There it is in bold in your post

beauf

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

People expecting large 50% drops will be kept waiting I'd say. The situation is very different to a decade ago.

People will still need places to live and the level of construction will slow a lot if prices start dropping by 10%. Low supply will mean there will be enough demand for that limited supply to prop prices up and keep the decreases minimal.

In our last crisis there was too many houses. People trying to compare just don't seem to be up to speed on the vastly different scenario this time around.

You are wasting your breath. People expect demand to fall way below the supply and they then can buy a property for half nothing. The flip side of this is people expecting demand to fall but still exceed supply. People who aren't effected financially will still be able to buy.

It's likely to be somewhere in the middle.

Hubertj

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Come on mate, you're in denial here.

Egyptian property? Worth a punt?

Bubbaclaus

brisan wrote: »

at least 90% of first time buyers in high demand areas have third level degrees.
Copy and pasted from your original quote

Do you want to maybe copy and paste the first few words of that sentence too? Or does it suit your internet warrior persona better to just take half a sentence out of context?

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

It's the CSOs Q2 Labour Force Survey.

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lfs/labourforcesurveylfsquarter22020/

I have read it and cannot find the relevant section
Could you oblige and post the relevant section
Thanks

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Do you want to maybe copy and paste the first few words of that sentence too? Or does it suit your internet warrior persona better to just take half a sentence out of context?

I put in bold the full sentence
More than 90% is a fairly big guess

beauf

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

....Unfortunately, as the stats bare out, it is the low paid that have been affected by the pandemic. Everyone else is business as usual, apart from working from home and saving more money than usual. ...

People want to believe the low paid have equal access to property, and that no one has been uneffected or even done better out of the pandemic.

beauf

Hubertj wrote: »

Egyptian property? Worth a punt?

...Nah it's a pyramid scheme...

brisan

beauf wrote: »

People want to believe the low paid have equal access to property, and that no one has been uneffected or even done better out of the pandemic.

as I pointed out even someone on 30k losing their job takes 105k off any potential mortgage
Hell even a minimum wage of 20k takes 70k off a potential mortgage
If mortgage amounts drop is it not fair to say that will impact on prices.

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/goal-to-build-35-000-homes-won-t-be-met-without-significant-changes-cif-1.4356583?mode=amp

Good to see among the covid hysteria, the CIF pre-budget submission (being reported in a national paper too) is seeking to put pressure on the government to get on with its single most important mandate from the last election; dramatically increase supply and make housing affordable.

hometruths

brisan wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lfs/labourforcesurveylfsquarter22020/

I have read it and cannot find the relevant section
Could you oblige and post the relevant section
Thanks

I can't find it either, was just about to post the same

beauf

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/goal-to-build-35-000-homes-won-t-be-met-without-significant-changes-cif-1.4356583?mode=amp

Good to see among the covid hysteria, the CIF pre-budget submission (being reported in a national paper too) is seeking to put pressure on the government to get on with its single most important mandate from the last election; dramatically increase supply and make housing affordable.

How long has lack of supply been a problem now. A decade?

Bubbaclaus

brisan wrote: »

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/er/lfs/labourforcesurveylfsquarter22020/

I have read it and cannot find the relevant section
Could you oblige and post the relevant section
Thanks

Looks like the data on the website version of the release doesn't have all the tables available (no idea why - EDIT you need to go to the StatBank and select the data you want yourself), but here is Dan O'Brien's tweet with the data:

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1298243714255654913?s=19

hometruths

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/goal-to-build-35-000-homes-won-t-be-met-without-significant-changes-cif-1.4356583?mode=amp

Good to see among the covid hysteria, the CIF pre-budget submission (being reported in a national paper too) is seeking to put pressure on the government to get on with its single most important mandate from the last election; dramatically increase supply and make housing affordable.

Interesting way they phrase it too, asking the government to:

"to support private demand thus enabling an increase in the supply of affordable housebuilding

beauf

brisan wrote: »

as I pointed out even someone on 30k losing their job takes 105k off any potential mortgage
Hell even a minimum wage of 20k takes 70k off a potential mortgage
If mortgage amounts drop is it not fair to say that will impact on prices.

I've never considered people on minimum wages buying property. I'm obviously doing something wrong.

beauf

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting way they phrase it too, asking the government to:

"to support private demand thus enabling an increase in the supply of affordable housebuilding

Last time some developers and builders survived by getting involved in public projects, schools and roads and things like that.