Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

brisan

beauf wrote: »

I've never considered people on minimum wages buying property. I'm obviously doing something wrong.

On their own no
With another low paid worker ,in Dublin no ,outside of Dublin yes
However low paid workers do buy property with higher paid workers with whom they are in a relationship with
Taking their earnings out of the equation lessens the mortgage higher paid worker can jointly obtain

lower paid workers also pay rent
IF 100000 low paid workers lose their jobs and cannot afford rent ,what happens the rental properties ?
Lower their rents,thus lowering yield .thus lowering value.
Stay idle and become a negatively performing asset

hometruths

beauf wrote: »

Last time some developers and builders survived by getting involved in public projects, schools and roads and things like that.

Yes for sure, and to be honest I think if there is a serious downturn in construction the govt should engage developers directly to build housing and infrastructure, and pass cost savings on in affordable houses.

But what the developers are asking for is more help to buy type sweeteners so they can maintain their margins. It will simply cost housebuyers more.

brisan

beauf wrote: »

I've never considered people on minimum wages buying property. I'm obviously doing something wrong.

So no minimum wage worker owns a property either singly or jointly ???
Are they entitled to ??

brisan

schmittel wrote: »

Yes for sure, and to be honest I think if there is a serious downturn in construction the govt should engage developers directly to build housing and infrastructure, and pass cost savings on in affordable houses.

But what the developers are asking for is more help to buy type sweeteners so they can maintain their margins. It will simply cost housebuyers more.

As can be seen from the recent increase in the HTB scheme

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Interesting way they phrase it too, asking the government to:

"to support private demand thus enabling an increase in the supply of affordable housebuilding

Whilst self serving they do make valid points around infrastructural improvements such as Irish water .

beauf

brisan wrote: »

So no minimum wage worker owns a property either singly or jointly ???
Are they entitled to ??

...and no one hasn't been uneffected or done better during the pandemic....

hometruths

brisan wrote: »

lower paid workers also pay rent
IF 100000 low paid workers lose their jobs and cannot afford rent ,what happens the rental properties ?
Lower their rents,thus lowering yield .thus lowering value.
Stay idle and become a negatively performing asset

It's rarely discussed in this thread but anecdotal evidence suggests rents are collapsing.

If rents drop longer term will have a knock on effect on the sales market in time.

brisan

beauf wrote: »

...and no one hasn't been uneffected or done better during the pandemic....

Of course they have
They may have got new jobs,but I doubt major pay increases were handed out during a pandemic .even in Tech Jobs
But that is not going to make property a lot dearer when 100k people lose their jobs

Pelezico

schmittel wrote: »

It's rarely discussed in this thread but anecdotal evidence suggests rents are collapsing.

If rents drop longer term will have a knock on effect on the sales market in time.

You mean people will have more capacity to save so house prices go up?

brisan

schmittel wrote: »

It's rarely discussed in this thread but anecdotal evidence suggests rents are collapsing.

If rents drop longer term will have a knock on effect on the sales market in time.

It is not discussed because its head in the sand for some people
Nothing to see here ,it will never happen ,cant happen here ,too little supply
And yet the Property Pin has a whole thread documenting rental price drops from 5-25%
On here they were just overpriced originally

hometruths

Pelezico wrote: »

You mean people will have more capacity to save so house prices go up?

Not quite what I was getting at!

brisan

schmittel wrote: »

Not quite what I was getting at!

I THINK the poster was been sarcastic
Some people will say with more savings and bigger deposits house prices will go up
Any excuse to deny the inevitable

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

It's rarely discussed in this thread but anecdotal evidence suggests rents are collapsing.

If rents drop longer term will have a knock on effect on the sales market in time.

Someone regularly posts on another thread monthly stats with asking rents for different types of property. I think it shows asking rents are down about 20% on some types of property and supply is up significantly. But it doesn’t show how many are being rented or how long they have been on the market so difficult to see how much activity there is.

beauf

brisan wrote: »

It is not discussed because its head in the sand for some people
Nothing to see here ,it will never happen ,cant happen here ,too little supply
And yet the Property Pin has a whole thread documenting rental price drops from 5-25%
On here they were just overpriced originally

People here expecting free rent. Posting about abundance supply in one thread then complaining about no supply in others. Rents in fee fall but too expensive. They stats are a conspiracy unless you can selectively Quote from them.

Very entertaining.

beauf

Hubertj wrote: »

Someone regularly posts on another thread monthly stats with asking rents for different types of property. I think it shows asking rents are down about 20% on some types of property and supply is up significantly. But it doesn’t show how many are being rented or how long they have been on the market so difficult to see how much activity there is.

Banning Airbnb fixed the supply crisis. Did you miss that. Homeless resolved at the stroke of a pen.

beauf

brisan wrote: »

I THINK the poster was been sarcastic
Some people will say with more savings and bigger deposits house prices will go up
Any excuse to deny the inevitable

The market is cyclical so both are correct.

Pelezico

beauf wrote: »

The market is cyclical so both are correct.

If rents collapse, why would people buy?

beauf

Pelezico wrote: »

If rents collapse, why would people buy?

They eventually go up.

thefridge2006

I'll just leave this 2500 job losses right here for whoever it was saying that the covid crisis was only going to affect low paid workers who arent even in the market for a mortgage....... this is huge and only the start of it all

Fears for 2,500 jobs as Ulster Bank closure being considered

Ulster Bank made a loss of €276m for the first half of the year.

It has struggled to gain market share because of its small scale.

Ulster Bank got a bailout of €15bn (€16bn) from its British parent after the financial crash more than a decade ago. Much of this money came from British taxpayers.

It has since sold a number of mortgage accounts that are in arrears, cut jobs and has closed branches.

hometruths

brisan wrote: »

I THINK the poster was been sarcastic
Some people will say with more savings and bigger deposits house prices will go up
Any excuse to deny the inevitable

I sensed sarcasm but you can never be sure!

The last time I tried to discuss the impact of falling rents in this thread I was told that rental valuations and sales prices were completely separate with no impact on each other - 'decoupled' was the phrase used.

Something to do with landlords kicking tenants out if they lose their job.

I gave up discussing rents after that.

thefridge2006

Graham wrote: »

They are still operating and providing jobs.

yes..... on support from the Gov....not providing for themselves

beauf

schmittel wrote: »

I sensed sarcasm but you can never be sure!

The last time I tried to discuss the impact of falling rents in this thread I was told that rental valuations and sales prices were completely separate with no impact on each other - 'decoupled' was the phrase used.

Something to do with landlords kicking tenants out if they lose their job.

I gave up discussing rents after that.

How quickly can LL evict. One year, two years? It doesn't seem like that would have any dramatic effect on anything. LL can't sell, can't re-rent with a tenant in situ even if not paying.

If rents fall. Many LLs cover the shortfall in rent. If the property becomes unviable it will be sold. But if you look at last time we banks didn't let people sell. They dragged it out and ruined everyone including themselves. They don't seem to have the same approach this time.

It will depend on how many people are over leveraged.

ExMachina1000

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I'll just leave this 2500 job losses right here for whoever it was saying that the covid crisis was only going to affect low paid workers who arent even in the market for a mortgage....... this is huge and only the start of it all

Fears for 2,500 jobs as Ulster Bank closure being considered

Ulster Bank made a loss of €276m for the first half of the year.

It has struggled to gain market share because of its small scale.

Ulster Bank got a bailout of €15bn (€16bn) from its British parent after the financial crash more than a decade ago. Much of this money came from British taxpayers.

It has since sold a number of mortgage accounts that are in arrears, cut jobs and has closed branches.

Ulster bank may be sold off to other banks and lenders.
Jobs will be created /saved

Pelezico

beauf wrote: »

How quickly can LL evict. One year, two years? It doesn't seem like that would have any dramatic effect on anything. LL can't sell, can't re-rent with a tenant in situ even if not paying.

If rents fall. Many LLs cover the shortfall in rent. If the property becomes unviable it will be sold. But if you look at last time we banks didn't let people sell. They dragged it out and ruined everyone including themselves. They don't seem to have the same approach this time.

It will depend on how many people are over leveraged.

Do lads even bother paying rent any more? I know they dont concern themselves with mortgages.

AlmightyCushion

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Ulster bank may be sold off to other banks and lenders.
Jobs will be created /saved

If it gets sold off to another bank there will still be job losses. It's what usually happens at least.

pearcider

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Very good. As I said, there is no economic similarities between then and now. Yet I'm sure you will continue to compare anyway.

Yeah things are actually worse now. The banks are all bust due to low interest rates. Tourism, airlines, hotels, restaurants, huge employers that will all need to shrink by half at least. No end in sight to the pandemic either.

beauf

Pelezico wrote: »

Do lads even bother paying rent any more? I know they dont concern themselves with mortgages.

We'll find out when the rent arrears come due.

No handing the keys back in Ireland. You'll pay the mortgage and the interest eventually. The banks have proved they can get blood out of stone.

Assetbacked

beauf wrote: »

How long has lack of supply been a problem now. A decade?

Yes, close to a decade. There are only really 3 budgets for FF and FG to fix the mess, but this time FF and FG really need to have made decent progress or else neither could be looking at being in government after the next election.

Bubbaclaus

pearcider wrote: »

Yeah things are actually worse now. The banks are all bust due to low interest rates. Tourism, airlines, hotels, restaurants, huge employers that will all need to shrink by half at least. No end in sight to the pandemic either.

"The banks are all bust" is a tad misleading, wouldn't you agree?

Assetbacked

Hubertj wrote: »

Someone regularly posts on another thread monthly stats with asking rents for different types of property. I think it shows asking rents are down about 20% on some types of property and supply is up significantly. But it doesn’t show how many are being rented or how long they have been on the market so difficult to see how much activity there is.

There is a simple way to do some desktop research on that. Search for rentals on Daft in Dublin, under 2.5k, max 3 beds and sort by oldest ads. Then scroll through them. It might take a couple dozen pages of ads to go through but it will be obvious which ones are dead ads and which are still active.

I use under 2.5k as I don't see your average renters paying much more than that for a place.