Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Pelezico

beauf wrote: »

We'll find out when the rent arrears come due.

No handing the keys back in Ireland. You'll pay the mortgage and the interest eventually. The banks have proved they can get blood out of stone.

Nobody should bother paying rent nowadays. You cant be kicked out.

beauf

Pelezico wrote: »

Nobody should bother paying rent nowadays. You cant be kicked out.

In fairness there isn't a problem with the vast majority of rentals on either side. Not in normal times. Which is miracle consisting the state of the system. Remains to be seen what happens post Covid.

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I'll just leave this 2500 job losses right here for whoever it was saying that the covid crisis was only going to affect low paid workers who arent even in the market for a mortgage....... this is huge and only the start of it all

Fears for 2,500 jobs as Ulster Bank closure being considered

Ulster Bank made a loss of €276m for the first half of the year.

It has struggled to gain market share because of its small scale.

Ulster Bank got a bailout of €15bn (€16bn) from its British parent after the financial crash more than a decade ago. Much of this money came from British taxpayers.

It has since sold a number of mortgage accounts that are in arrears, cut jobs and has closed branches.

You think ulster banks problems started with Covid ?

bobbyy gee

banks have stopped lending

brisan

beauf wrote: »

How long has lack of supply been a problem now. A decade?

There was an oversupply in 2010

brisan

ExMachina1000 wrote: »

Ulster bank may be sold off to other banks and lenders.
Jobs will be created /saved

Now that is delusional

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

You think ulster banks problems started with Covid ?

No but Covid will put a stop to them
276 m loss in 6 months was the final nail in the coffin
It will all depend how well their mortgage book is performing
If they are heavily exposed to commercial mortgages they could find it very hard to sell at a good percentage of book value

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

You think ulster banks problems started with Covid ?

No, but i doubt it would have happened if Covid-19 wasn't around...

"Ulster Bank made a loss of €276m for the first half of the year"

pearcider

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

"The banks are all bust" is a tad misleading, wouldn't you agree?

No I wouldn’t. They have no earnings and are sitting on huge losses facing this recession. You only have to look at their accounts. Look at the Euro Bank Stoxx Index. The Price to a Book ratio is at an all time low even lower than back during the Lehman crisis. There is no recovery for these lads they’re zombie banks only kept alive by the ECB. The question is for how long. When the next bailout comes for the banks, will the European taxpayers accept it?

beauf

brisan wrote: »

There was an oversupply in 2010

There was also undersupply. Since there was lack of demand in some areas and high demand in other areas and there was a mismatch between them. Hence the ghost estates in the middle of nowhere. The Bacon report mentioned supply issues in the 90s.

We don't seem to be able to provide a stable sustainable market. It's boom and bust everytime.

The Belly

beauf wrote: »

There was also undersupply. Since there was lack of demand in some areas and high demand in other areas and there was a mismatch between them. Hence the ghost estates in the middle of nowhere. The Bacon report mentioned supply issues in the 90s.

We don't seem to be able to provide a stable sustainable market. It's boom and bust everytime.

All duck or no dinner. Too many vested interests. Theres no reason why it should be like this. Good times or bad.

fliball123

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Really? Tell me what is going to happen so.

Employment actually increased amongst third level educated people in Ireland in Q2 this year, mid pandemic. I would guess at least 90% of first time buyers in high demand areas have third level degrees.

Our income tax receipts this year are pretty much unchanged from last year.

Unfortunately, as the stats bare out, it is the low paid that have been affected by the pandemic. Everyone else is business as usual, apart from working from home and saving more money than usual.

People expecting these people to suddenly not buy houses are in for a surprise.

People claiming its 2008 again clearly either don't understand what happened in 2008 or don't understand what is happening now.

Some people just want doom and gloom and are pretending that there is no interest in property yet there are a sh1t load of threads on here on that particular subject and this one alone has how many posts??. But no there is no interest in property at all. The fact is it is borne into an Irish person when they are born to get on the property ladder now weather that is foolhardy or something ingrained from being a nation that was colonized I don't know but I know myself and my siblings where told to get onto the property ladder asap. Now am I telling anyone to buy or sell. NO but do I think there will a price drop in the next 2 years YES but a small one if I was a betting man maybe 5-8% with 8% on anything over a mil and going down as the price gets lower, will it last long HOW KNOWS

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

So the low paid have no vested interest in the property market
Example
Mary has a high tech job earns 100k
John is a Barista earns 30 k
On those wages they qualify for a mortgage of 455k
John loses his job
Mortgage available 350k
So what happens ???

Mary rides Bill the company owner and lives happily ever after

Graham

thefridge2006 wrote: »

yes..... on support from the Gov....not providing for themselves

I'm not convinced you quite grasp what examinership is.

It's not government support

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I sensed sarcasm but you can never be sure!

The last time I tried to discuss the impact of falling rents in this thread I was told that rental valuations and sales prices were completely separate with no impact on each other - 'decoupled' was the phrase used.

Something to do with landlords kicking tenants out if they lose their job.

I gave up discussing rents after that.

That was me and I never broached the subject of falling rents with in the context of rent and buying being decoupled what i was trying to explain to you and one or two other posters was that people who own a property and if they lose their job are in a better position to play the poor mouth and not get kicked out for a good decade without paying the mortgage staying there rent and mortgage repayment free and I tried to explain why this would be decoupled from someone renting and losing a job this particular person would be told to f-off by the landlord for not paying the rent it was entangled in a discussion of supply and demand where you or some other poster was suggesting that with the amount of job losses that a sh1t load of properties would be coming up for sale as people would be thrown out of their houses and I pointed out the above I also pointed out that those fecked out from a rental and now unemployed would also have to be housed by the state so effectively a zero sum game as the person who owns the house will not be losing it any time soon and the person renting will lose their place but will put the burden on the state to find them a new place to live.

The_Conductor

Cyrus wrote: »

You think ulster banks problems started with Covid ?

Ulster bank underwent multiple examinations since 2013 (and was the recipient of over £13b of UK taxpayer bailout funds). In 2014 it was recommended by the latest such review that it be sold. Various other reviews since 2014 (5 in total) all either recommended a sale, a merger with another Irish lending institution (the most recent of which was Permanent TSB), or a managed close down, selling its loan books to a variety of domestic and international investors.

Despite all the previous reviews- nothing ever happened. Its possible that the current review result in a similar outcome.

The bigger issue for Ulster Bank in Ireland- is a proportionally higher cost base per customer than in any other market they service. Their cost of doing business in Ireland- is prohibitive.

JimmyVik

beauf wrote: »

How quickly can LL evict. One year, two years? It doesn't seem like that would have any dramatic effect on anything. LL can't sell, can't re-rent with a tenant in situ even if not paying.

If rents fall. Many LLs cover the shortfall in rent. If the property becomes unviable it will be sold. But if you look at last time we banks didn't let people sell. They dragged it out and ruined everyone including themselves. They don't seem to have the same approach this time.

It will depend on how many people are over leveraged.

Right now most are out of negative equity so can sell. If they wait and prices drop they may be back in negative equity and unable to sell.

Pelezico

But why would a bank operate in this country? Too much political interference.

Those who got mortgage holidays will be complaining to the ombudsman that they still have to pay interest.

The ombudsman will find in their favour.


More losses will stack up.

coolshannagh28

pearcider wrote: »

No I wouldn’t. They have no earnings and are sitting on huge losses facing this recession. You only have to look at their accounts. Look at the Euro Bank Stoxx Index. The Price to a Book ratio is at an all time low even lower than back during the Lehman crisis. There is no recovery for these lads they’re zombie banks only kept alive by the ECB. The question is for how long. When the next bailout comes for the banks, will the European taxpayers accept it?

Or god forbid, bail in !

MacronvFrugals

beauf wrote: »

People want to believe the low paid have equal access to property, and that no one has been uneffected or even done better out of the pandemic.

Nobody can argue that Covid wont further increase mortgage inequality especially in Dublin.

MacronvFrugals

fliball123 wrote: »

Some people just want doom and gloom and are pretending that there is no interest in property yet there are a sh1t load of threads on here on that particular subject and this one alone has how many posts??. But no there is no interest in property at all. The fact is it is borne into an Irish person when they are born to get on the property ladder now weather that is foolhardy or something ingrained from being a nation that was colonized I don't know but I know myself and my siblings where told to get onto the property ladder asap. Now am I telling anyone to buy or sell. NO but do I think there will a price drop in the next 2 years YES but a small one if I was a betting man maybe 5-8% with 8% on anything over a mil and going down as the price gets lower, will it last long HOW KNOWS

The ingrained want to get on the property ladder is to avoid ever having to deal with the outrageous rental market and all the cowboy landlords involved.

This situation suits an awful lot of people though.

fliball123

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The ingrained want to get on the property ladder is to avoid ever having to deal with the outrageous rental market and all the cowboy landlords involved.

This situation suits an awful lot of people though.

Yeah I am sure there is an element of that as well only thing I will say is there are as many tenants out there taking the p1ss out of landlords and the current structure (excluding the high rents of course) is tailored for tenants to screw landlords.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah I am sure there is an element of that as well only thing I will say is there are as many tenants out there taking the p1ss out of landlords and the current structure (excluding the high rents of course) is tailored for tenants to screw landlords.

Speaking as an ex landlord here , and one who was hopefully considered a good one
Have you ever considered why the current legislation was brought in ?
What made successive Governments which consisted of some landlords as well , bring in what are considered by landlords restrictive regulations
Did they wake up one day and say screw the landlords
I know their own failed housing policies led them to rely too heavily on the private rental sector ,but that can’t be the main reason
Surely there had to be underlying reasons why Threshold and the RTB were brought into existence in the first place ?
I have my own ideas , anyone else care to comment ?

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

Speaking as an ex landlord here , and one who was hopefully considered a good one
Have you ever considered why the current legislation was brought in ?
What made successive Governments which consisted of some landlords as well , bring in what are considered by landlords restrictive regulations
Did they wake up one day and say screw the landlords
I know their own failed housing policies led them to rely too heavily on the private rental sector ,but that can’t be the main reason
Surely there had to be underlying reasons why Threshold and the RTB were brought into existence in the first place ?
I have my own ideas , anyone else care to comment ?

Don't get me wrong I believe some landlords are taking the p1ss as well. The policies put in place do nothing for landlords adhering to the rules and you will find more and more rogue landlords just not bothering to register with the ptrb and just getting cash under the table and looking at migrants and foreigners which should be sorted out. Just to flip your question and ask you one why do you think more and more private landlords are leaving the sector and have been doing so for the last 5 years or so when rents were and still currently are very high??

MacronvFrugals

Who remembers politicians back in the Nama days trying to cheap apartments off Nama at bargain prices and the Labour party no less!

Assetbacked

brisan wrote: »

Speaking as an ex landlord here , and one who was hopefully considered a good one
Have you ever considered why the current legislation was brought in ?
What made successive Governments which consisted of some landlords as well , bring in what are considered by landlords restrictive regulations
Did they wake up one day and say screw the landlords
I know their own failed housing policies led them to rely too heavily on the private rental sector ,but that can’t be the main reason
Surely there had to be underlying reasons why Threshold and the RTB were brought into existence in the first place ?
I have my own ideas , anyone else care to comment ?

At a high, unspecific level, I think it is part of the erosion of the middle classes. As inequality grows, the lower classes need more state assistance in order to subsist, which spirals the more inequality grows. Politicians of course only care about being re-elected so give the lower classes handouts in order to cover themselves, like RPZs and anti-eviction legislation. It's like taking paracetomel when hungover; it only dulls some symptoms temporarily but doesn't fix the hangover at all, so then you give them a dirty meal, which again temporarily dulls some of the symptoms but doesn't help with the hangover.

JimmyVik

fliball123 wrote: »

Don't get me wrong I believe some landlords are taking the p1ss as well. The policies put in place do nothing for landlords adhering to the rules and you will find more and more rogue landlords just not bothering to register with the ptrb and just getting cash under the table and looking at migrants and foreigners which should be sorted out. Just to flip your question and ask you one why do you think more and more private landlords are leaving the sector and have been doing so for the last 5 years or so when rents were and still currently are very high??

I have been looking for a good while now for a good property investment.
There really is nothing you could make much money on.
Especially given the risk of even more legislation that might actually even have the tripple whammy of increasing your taxes, lowering the value of your investment and reducing your rent.
I just dont see why anyone would invest in property unless they had favourable tax treatment to enable them to turn a buck.

PropQueries

brisan wrote: »

Speaking as an ex landlord here , and one who was hopefully considered a good one
Have you ever considered why the current legislation was brought in ?
What made successive Governments which consisted of some landlords as well , bring in what are considered by landlords restrictive regulations
Did they wake up one day and say screw the landlords
I know their own failed housing policies led them to rely too heavily on the private rental sector ,but that can’t be the main reason
Surely there had to be underlying reasons why Threshold and the RTB were brought into existence in the first place ?
I have my own ideas , anyone else care to comment ?

My understanding is that the new regulations and rent controls were brought in because the government's initial initiatives to resolve the problem of excess supply of housing were too successful.

Back in 2012/13, they basically banned bedsits, introduced capital gains tax reliefs, and brought in legislation to encourage the so-called vulture funds in to remove this excess supply from the market.

It worked. But too well. But much of this excess supply still exists. The problem now is how long before the investors (domestic and international) move to offload it all.

Assetbacked

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/long-term-remote-working-could-be-the-ruin-of-city-centre-economies-and-fdi-39538032.html

A rallying cry to not let offices die from a director of Savills! It's premium (an Indo article, premium!) so I can't actually read it.

MacronvFrugals

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/long-term-remote-working-could-be-the-ruin-of-city-centre-economies-and-fdi-39538032.html

A rallying cry to not let offices die from a director of Savills! It's premium (an Indo article, premium!) so I can't actually read it.

The reasons why demand has concentrated on the city centre are many. All public transport radiates from the centre so if you are located here you can appeal to the largest possible labour pool.

If you work here, you have the broader range of shopping, cultural, and leisure options for lunchtime and after work activity. You are also more likely to be able to meet and mix with your peers who don't work with you. For those involved in part-time education, especially trainee professionals, access to training nearby your office is also an attraction.

Because of this, Dublin city centre has developed in a vibrant and varied, exciting place to live, work and socialise. This has allowed Ireland to attract talent from overseas to work in the hugely important Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) sector in the city. These companies would not find Ireland as attractive if we didn't attract these talented people who in addition to contributing to our economic success, have by their presence transformed Dublin into a vibrant multi-racial social centre.

Covid has largely shut down this wonderfully vibrant city centre, as I see every day outside our office. We need to fight for most worthwhile things in life and now is definitely the time we need to fight to restore our vibrant city centre. It's our economic dynamo and our social meeting point, with social distancing, of course.

We've been living with Covid-19 for just six months, but I'll admit, it does seem more like six years at this point.

Less than a month into the pandemic, various commentators began to question whether the office has a future. The benefits of working from home, it seemed, were obvious - not having to commute on a daily basis, spending more time with family and friends, and working more flexible hours. I enjoyed it myself - up to a point.

After the initial novelty wore off, the downsides began to emerge. From our perspective, it became clear that the development of graduates and junior members of staff - the future of our business - was being hampered by not being in an office environment.

Of course, technology has enabled us to somewhat mentor and train staff remotely, but this pales in comparison to watching and learning from others conducting business.

And it's not only junior members of staff who are affected. For anyone working in an office, the ability to turn to a colleague and brainstorm an idea or walk to someone's desk and get a swift answer to a question was, until recently, taken for granted. Now, time is spent scheduling dairies for Zoom calls - or waiting for a response to an email - to obtain the same information.

Don't get me wrong, I believe both have their merits, and I think employers will need to become more flexible by allowing employees to work from home on a part-time basis. However, those calling for this on an almost full-time basis, are not just overlooking the impact on their business, they are also overlooking the impact on the wider economy and, in particular, city centres.

Pre-Covid, Dublin city centre was home to hundreds of thousands of office workers, not to mention tourists. The majority of office workers remain working from home - as per Government advice - and the presence of tourists is generally non-existent.

The impact this is having on city centre retailers, restaurants, cafes and pubs is, to be blunt, brutal. Dublin Town, the voice of businesses in Dublin city centre recently commented that office workers are the bedrock of custom for retail and hospitality businesses. These workers are the ones who buy coffees and lunches, shop on their breaks, and engage with the city's hair and beauty offerings.

As I mentioned before, we're only six months into this pandemic and, in my opinion, the novelty has not worn off for most people yet, but it is beginning to do so. I expect the attraction of office working will become increasingly apparent as we make our way through an Irish winter.

In the meantime, I believe the Government - and wider business community - need to focus on ensuring employees can return to offices safely. Public transport is key to this. As it stands, Government advice is to avoid public transport, which is used by 75pc of office workers in Dublin to get to work.

It is imperative that Government look at ways to make public transport safer - be it through additional capacity or more regular sanitisation between journeys. From an employer's perspective, allowing flexible starting times, the provision of PPE for staff, adjusting layouts to allow for social distancing, and the installation of additional safety equipment should be considered with, if required, Government support in the form of grants or subsidies.

Kellie O'Brien is an associate director at Savills Ireland.

If thats not allowed i'll delete.