Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

The Belly

Mango Joe wrote: »

Was just looking at houses in Limerick City and Country for the first time in 10 years.

I am absolutely staggered at how few options are available, in such poor locations, that are in many cases small, mouldy, claustrophobic and in absolute rag order with insanely high and illogical prices alongside them.

It's absolutely shocking and depressing in equal measure.

if you squeeze supply that's what you get. However, it can only last for so long.

14627043

PropQueries wrote: »

Article in Irish Times today: State bodies playing role in squeezing Dublin housing market.

"As noted by Goodbody chief economist Dermot O’Leary, the non-household sector (private companies, charitable organisations, and State institutions) accounted for 41 per cent of new home purchases in July and for 39 per cent over the past 12 months."

"This included 48 per cent of new homes in Dublin over the past 12 months"

Link to Irish Times article here:

Wouldn't it make sense for the Government to just buy Cairn Homes and Glenveagh at this stage. Their share prices are on the floor. The state is basically their biggest customer at this stage.

As well as 95% of the apartment stock being bought up by institutional landlords for BTL, no wonder the average person cant afford to buy anywhere. Supply absolutely strangled which has pushed prices up

cubatahavana

PropQueries wrote: »

True about the celtic tiger years. But the corporation tax bonanza hasn't been squandered on the 'can't work won't work brigade'.

Here's the breakdown of the welfare spend. It may surprise you: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/socialprotection/2019/

Nearly 4 billion in income support

That’s 5% of the taxes.

cubatahavana

cubatahavana wrote: »

Nearly 4 billion in income support

And another 4 billion in housing

cubatahavana

cubatahavana wrote: »

And another 4 billion in housing

And this is another 5%

MacronvFrugals

cubatahavana wrote: »

And another 4 billion in housing

Housing is a pipe dream for to many people in this country.

I'v lived in Finland and Norway and its not anymore near like this, the reason is most likely these countries arent afraid to take on interest groups.

Being real we have kids in hotels who are missing key development indicators.

Relying on the market solely was a disastrous move, its now time for the state to take an active role in building.

The Belly

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Housing is a pipe dream for to many people in this country.

I'v lived in Finland and Norway and its not anymore near like this, the reason is most likely these countries arent afraid to take on interest groups.

Being real we have kids in hotels who are missing key development indicators.

Relying on the market solely was a disastrous move, its now time for the state to take an active role in building.

They will have no choice and such a shame they didn't do it already

cubatahavana

For comparison, in spain, with 46 million people, they spend the same in income support. 5 billion, but that’s from a pool of 460 billion

PropQueries

cubatahavana wrote: »

For comparison, in spain, with 46 million people, they spend the same in income support. 5 billion, but that’s from a pool of 460 billion

I wouldn't really regard it as income support. It's more subsidies for landlords. The biggest expenses most workers have are housing and childcare.

If the state wasn't providing income support both the rental sector and childcare sector would be on its knees or more realistically, their prices would be much much less. The welfare recipient is just the 'middle man' in the subsidy process.

MacronvFrugals

The Belly wrote: »

They will have no choice and such a shame they didn't do it already

The Children's hospital was the last straw, private developers arent efficient in any way.

The contractors use apps to track work, thats how the bill is calculated, the lads working take the same photo from 5 different angles submit and go home early.

Then when the bill is due its gigantic.

Watch the mental health hospital in Portrane, minister has said this will NOT go over budget, my friends working for one of the main contractors and has said it will go millions over budget when all is done.

The MO is undercut to win contract and then who cares what the bill is - efficiency at its best

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Housing is a pipe dream for to many people in this country.

I'v lived in Finland and Norway and its not anymore near like this, the reason is most likely these countries arent afraid to take on interest groups.

Being real we have kids in hotels who are missing key development indicators.

Relying on the market solely was a disastrous move, its now time for the state to take an active role in building.

The market generally works very well if managed properly. Even in the USA, they break up big companies or sectors when they become too powerful (anti-trust laws etc.). No such actions here though.

Imagine the state introduced real vacant investment property taxes. The market would be flooded with both residential and commercial real estate in the morning and all at no cost to the taxpayer and all problems solved.

HotDudeLife

cubatahavana wrote: »

For comparison, in spain, with 46 million people, they spend the same in income support. 5 billion, but that’s from a pool of 460 billion

Spain is a failed society in fairness but thinking about it now so are the majority of countries, the US used to be a beacon of hope but wouldn't live there now if you paid me.



OZ is probably the only sensible nation left when it comes to the economy, immigration etc.

MacronvFrugals

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Housing is a pipe dream for to many people in this country.

I'v lived in Finland and Norway and its not anymore near like this, the reason is most likely these countries arent afraid to take on interest groups.

Being real we have kids in hotels who are missing key development indicators.

Relying on the market solely was a disastrous move, its now time for the state to take an active role in building.

We could manage our housing problem with compulsory purchase orders of land.

MacronvFrugals

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Spain is a failed society in fairness but thinking about it now so are the majority of countries, the US used to be a beacon of hope but wouldn't live there now if you paid me.



OZ is probably the only sensible nation left when it comes to the economy, immigration etc.

Lived in Auckland for 7 months in 2017, much prefer the Nordic countries myself.

timmyntc

Deleted User wrote: »

We could manage our housing problem with compulsory purchase orders of land.

How would that help?
Generally CPOs cost much more than market value - so you're already overpaying for land. Construction costs aren't going to be massively cheaper for state built houses either - all you can discount is the cost of finance and the developers margin. Won't make a massive dent in house prices.

Price of land needs tackled first. Properly enforced vacant site levies - so that private companies/individuals holding onto land and keeping supply of sites low will be heavily penalised.

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The Children's hospital was the last straw, private developers arent efficient in any way.

The contractors use apps to track work, thats how the bill is calculated, the lads working take the same photo from 5 different angles submit and go home early.

Then when the bill is due its gigantic.

Watch the mental health hospital in Portrane, minister has said this will NOT go over budget, my friends working for one of the main contractors and has said it will go millions over budget when all is done.

The MO is undercut to win contract and then who cares what the bill is - efficiency at its best

I wonder how the main contractor is paid. If they paid in stages, it would solve all cost overrun problems. Only pay them at the end of each stage. If not completed on time or on budget, they get no money, lose the contract and it's awarded to a list of three back-up contractors? Would stop all the cost over-run shenanigans.

And, as they're big government contracts that every big contractor needs to stay in business, the government can set out how the deal is done and not the other way round.

The Belly

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder how the main contractor is paid. If they paid in stages, it would solve all cost overrun problems. Only pay them at the end of each stage. If not completed on time or on budget, they get no money, lose the contract and it's awarded to a list of three back-up contractors? Would stop all the cost over-run shenanigans.

And, as they're big government contracts that every big contractor needs to stay in business, the government can set out how the deal is done and not the other way round.

Wrong place for it no .1 and two as you say a contract is a contract deal done if not completed on time and in the budget developer is on the hook.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

I wonder how the main contractor is paid. If they paid in stages, it would solve all cost overrun problems. Only pay them at the end of each stage. If not completed on time or on budget, they get no money, lose the contract and it's awarded to a list of three back-up contractors? Would stop all the cost over-run shenanigans.

And, as they're big government contracts that every big contractor needs to stay in business, the government can set out how the deal is done and not the other way round.

from my experience dealing with PS work is paid in stages. I don't have exeprince with construction project but with IT infrastructure. Main issues - procurement process always messy for new work, requirements regularly change during build adding to CRs and costs. These processes are built into contracts.
From readingh about childrens hospital, they didnt have spec finalised when build started so there were a lot of changes.
Added to that, public servants arent accountable and its not their money so they dont care. "budget" is an alien temr to many of them

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

from my experience dealing with PS work is paid in stages. I don't have exeprince with construction project but with IT infrastructure. Main issues - procurement process always messy for new work, requirements regularly change during build adding to CRs and costs. These processes are built into contracts.
From readingh about childrens hospital, they didnt have spec finalised when build started so there were a lot of changes.
Added to that, public servants arent accountable and its not their money so they dont care. "budget" is an alien temr to many of them

I get that public servants are generally not accountable but how, as the Irish Times put it, did the 'National Children’s Hospital set to be world’s most expensive medical facility'.

No amount of incompetence, changes to specs etc. can account for that.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/national-children-s-hospital-set-to-be-world-s-most-expensive-medical-facility-1.3734669

MacronvFrugals

Economy wise how do you guys see a second lockdown affecting things?

Assetbacked

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Economy wise how do you guys see a second lockdown affecting things?

For me, it's hard to know fully given the government are aware how much financial support their restrictions require. But what is clear is that the restrictions create a huge demand shock to the economy, which is particularly felt in the rental sector (ie limited immigration, freezes on job hires/promotions/bonuses, universities being offsite etc.).

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Economy wise how do you guys see a second lockdown affecting things?

From a property market perspective the traditional buying/selling season now is practically gone until next Spring i.e. 6 months. We should have a better idea of the impact of the pandemic response at that stage.

The rental market is now mostly likely also finished for the next 6 months as well. Why would students book long term accommodation now. There's also very few new workers coming to the city to drive the rental market.

The question now is will some sellers assume the situation will be much worse in 6 months and offload their properties now in the hope of selling them to buyers who believe the situation won't be as bad in 6 months or wait 6 months by which time potential buyers may see and understand the fallout and no longer be interested.

HotDudeLife

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Economy wise how do you guys see a second lockdown affecting things?

It will likely just delay the inevitable by a few months.



I've through 4 recessions and i expect this upcoming recession to surpass them all (including 2008), but i think the recovery period will be shorter given the tech available, WFH etc.


Globally the pain will be felt all round but could see the global economy bouncing back to a bit after 2 years, however, we won't see anything like the celtic tiger or 2014-2019 for quite some time.


My prediction - Huge recession between 2021-2023, property prices to tank 20-30% but a quicker recovery than 2008.

Marius34

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Economy wise how do you guys see a second lockdown affecting things?

I believe it’s similarly like first lockdown, which had/has a massive negative effect economy wise, but I don’t expect to be in the same scale. On the other side, I do expect restrictions to stay until at least till May.

I think there is growing inequality, between those who has saving, and those who doesn’t. Saving are growing really fast, I guess cash may become a bigger player in property market. As well there is growing importance in residential property/space, and less in commercial office, due to WFH.

neutral guy

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Economy wise how do you guys see a second lockdown affecting things?

There will be no full lockdown as last time ( economy are dead already )
People will spending "free money " from government feeding the economy ( full car parks beside shops in retail parks )
Most people who are on 300 euros Covid payment will not looking for work and will enjoy life and mortgage holidays
One of my mates locked his pub and started another business ( there will be many of them who will start new life from different industries )
But happy life will be ended once government will turn life support equipment off.
Many businesses will die and never come back on market again
The people enjoying life and losing chance get job now will have spend them savings because there will be no Covid payments and will not find any job
The cash will be the king as usual and who will have the cash will be the king.
We will not see today property prices at least until 2030.

brisan

HotDudeLife wrote: »

It will likely just delay the inevitable by a few months.



I've through 4 recessions and i expect this upcoming recession to surpass them all (including 2008), but i think the recovery period will be shorter given the tech available, WFH etc.


Globally the pain will be felt all round but could see the global economy bouncing back to a bit after 2 years, however, we won't see anything like the celtic tiger or 2014-2019 for quite some time.


My prediction - Huge recession between 2021-2023, property prices to tank 20-30% but a quicker recovery than 2008.

Dan O Brien of the Irish Independant on the Tonight show last night said the unemployment figures this time around have happened so quick this recession will make 2008 seem like a blip.

The Belly

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Economy wise how do you guys see a second lockdown affecting things?

It will be around the country in clusters as they call it. It will carry on probably until the new year. The economy will take a very big hit. Some sense will prevail then hopefully. ECB is key. If they make a mess of it then we are in unchartered waters big time.

awec

brisan wrote: »

Dan O Brien of the Irish Independant on the Tonight show last night said the unemployment figures this time around have happened so quick this recession will make 2008 seem like a blip.

Did the government force almost every shop and business to close in 2008?

What a dumb point this is. Of course unemployment went up quick, we shut everything down.

What next, is he going to claim a record number of new jobs as government allows businesses to open again?

neutral guy

brisan wrote: »

Dan O Brien of the Irish Independant on the Tonight show last night said the unemployment figures this time around have happened so quick this recession will make 2008 seem like a blip.

Yes But government give plenty free money to people when in 2008 people was getting small amount of social welfare and banks was getting the rest.
People has more savings then they had in 2008.
More cheap labor because it is not easy to emigrate as in 2008
And for same reason bigger unemployment
But when we have more people in country then more people buy bread in shop
So for year or two I think we all right.
But after real show will start !

HotDudeLife

awec wrote: »

Did the government force almost every shop and business to close in 2008?

What a dumb point this is. Of course unemployment went up quick, we shut everything down.

The question is how many of those jobs will return once restrictions are lifted, not many is my guess.