Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

The Belly

HotDudeLife wrote: »

The question is how many of those jobs will return once restrictions are lifted, not many is my guess.

Once a business closes its gone. Most businesses unless very lucky take at least five years to establish themselves. Shuttering businesses and starving them of cash flow means they are gone.

PropQueries

brisan wrote: »

Dan O Brien of the Irish Independant on the Tonight show last night said the unemployment figures this time around have happened so quick this recession will make 2008 seem like a blip.

And remember we only had €30 - €50 billion national debt last time. Negative interests or not, the governments ability to keep funding the economy is gone in two years.

Even if this whole thing goes away in two years, then its a possible 10 further years of tax increases and reduced government spending (i.e. the austerity thing they keep telling us won't happen this time), ECB printing or no ECB printing.

Miracles do happen but I don't see any way out at this moment in time. Have we reached the end of that road they were talking about 6 or so years ago about 'kicking the can down the road'?

The Belly

PropQueries wrote: »

And remember we only had €30 - €50 billion national debt last time. Negative interests or not, the governments ability to keep funding the economy is gone in two years.

Even if this whole thing goes away in two years, then its a possible 10 further years of tax increases and reduced government spending (i.e. the austerity thing they keep telling us won't happen this time), ECB printing or no ECB printing.

Miracles do happen but I don't see any way out at this moment in time. Have we reached the end of that road they were talking about 6 or so years ago about 'kicking the can down the road'?

You cannot shut down a country and shut it down when you please. Confidence will go. Only liquidity will fix it and lots of it. Graham will warn me but it's as simple as that.

awec

HotDudeLife wrote: »

The question is how many of those jobs will return once restrictions are lifted, not many is my guess.

The majority of them will return. Not all of them.

Ireland is not going to suddenly turn into a nation that never leaves the house.

brisan

awec wrote: »

Did the government force almost every shop and business to close in 2008?

What a dumb point this is. Of course unemployment went up quick, we shut everything down.

What next, is he going to claim a record number of new jobs as government allows businesses to open again?

https://www.virginmediatelevision.ie/player/show/1294
From 32.30

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Did the government force almost every shop and business to close in 2008?

What a dumb point this is. Of course unemployment went up quick, we shut everything down.

What next, is he going to claim a record number of new jobs as government allows businesses to open again?

Oddly enough, thats not dissimiliar to what Trump has been claiming!

brisan

awec wrote: »

The majority of them will return. Not all of them.

Ireland is not going to suddenly turn into a nation that never leaves the house.

The majority is a very brave forecast
I hate the phrase but the New Normal has taken over and a lot of people wont go back to the old ways

neutral guy

PropQueries wrote: »

And remember we only had €30 - €50 billion national debt last time. Negative interests or not, the governments ability to keep funding the economy is gone in two years.

Even if this whole thing goes away in two years, then its a possible 10 further years of tax increases and reduced government spending (i.e. the austerity thing they keep telling us won't happen this time), ECB printing or no ECB printing.

Miracles do happen but I don't see any way out at this moment in time. Have we reached the end of that road they were talking about 6 or so years ago about 'kicking the can down the road'?

Correct ! Government announcing Covid payment and wage subsidies until the next year did not tell a word that Covid payment will cut down in September and wage subsidies will be changed.
I will not surprised if government in January next year will say that Covid payment will down to 100 and only persons who will get it will have get job first.

But fact is

There will be no recovery and business as usual after
There will be completely different world and financial system

awec

brisan wrote: »

The majority is a very brave forecast
I hate the phrase but the New Normal has taken over and a lot of people wont go back to the old ways

Everyone will go back to the old ways. Not even the most pessimistic crank believes this is going to be around forever.

Within a few years the covid aspect of this will all be yesterday’s news.

brisan

awec wrote: »

Everyone will go back to the old ways. Not even the most pessimistic crank believes this is going to be around forever.

Within a few years the covid aspect of this will all be yesterday’s news.

Of course covid wont be around forever ,but peoples habits will have changed and a lot will not go back to their old ways

Darc19

brisan wrote: »

Dan O Brien of the Irish Independant on the Tonight show last night said the unemployment figures this time around have happened so quick this recession will make 2008 seem like a blip.

I've never rated Dan obrien. Very much an indo scaremongerer. Goes for the headline.

Most of the jobs that are affected are in hospitality / tourism where part-time and Lower pay that contributes little tax is the norm.

Many of those affected are getting close to what they earned.

Tax receipts have held up very well especially paye and vat. People are spending and due to the type of industry we have here, most people are not fearful of unemployment.

House prices will drop a little. They needed to. You should be able to buy a decent 3 bed for under €300k in Dublin or places like Celbridge / Sallins.

But I can't see the Armageddon that some suggest.

Remember that the biggest problem in the last recession was a massive drop in tax revenues. Combined with massive personal debt. That is not happening this time.

cubatahavana

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Spain is a failed society in fairness but thinking about it now so are the majority of countries, the US used to be a beacon of hope but wouldn't live there now if you paid me.



OZ is probably the only sensible nation left when it comes to the economy, immigration etc.

Why do you say spain is a failed society? Standard of living way better than in Ireland

neutral guy

awec wrote: »

Everyone will go back to the old ways. Not even the most pessimistic crank believes this is going to be around forever.

Within a few years the covid aspect of this will all be yesterday’s news.

Would be great

At the moment I cant answer the question

Would I like see falling property prices and lose my incomes

Or see similar property prices and my incomes rising.

I was watching people on retail park parking last week Sunday which been packed by cars and shops were full of people.I dont know were they getting money from and how long this gonna continue.

To be honest I dont want back to 2008 dark days and I really dont want see darker !

HotDudeLife

Darc19 wrote: »

I've never rated Dan obrien. Very much an indo scaremongerer. Goes for the headline.

Most of the jobs that are affected are in hospitality / tourism where part-time and Lower pay that contributes little tax is the norm.

Many of those affected are getting close to what they earned.

Tax receipts have held up very well especially paye and vat. People are spending and due to the type of industry we have here, most people are not fearful of unemployment.

House prices will drop a little. They needed to. You should be able to buy a decent 3 bed for under €300k in Dublin or places like Celbridge / Sallins.

But I can't see the Armageddon that some suggest.

Let me guess these low earners also wouldn't have been planning on buying a property either :rolleyes:


Seriously though, i do love your optimism but i can't see there not being any other scenario than a massive crash given what is involved.

awec

brisan wrote: »

Of course covid wont be around forever ,but peoples habits will have changed and a lot will not go back to their old ways

The overwhelming majority will go back to their old ways, eventually everyone. Once the pubs open in a few weeks they’ll do a tonne of trade for example, in fact I am sure the fact they’ll be really busy is a big reason as to why they are still closed!

The idea that Ireland is now a nation of hermits is overly far fetched to me. This will pass, people have lives to live.

flexcon

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Let me guess these low earners also wouldn't have been planning on buying a property either :rolleyes:


Seriously though, i do love your optimism but i can't see there not being any other scenario than a massive crash given what is involved.

couple

€22K a year salary each
44K X 3.5 is €154,000 plus 15K deposit.

Those houses are not going to disrupt the hot pockets of Dublin or "New builds"

bUt I am just a random person online who occasionally likes to speak out if his arse so please call me on it!

Darc19

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Let me guess these low earners also wouldn't have been planning on buying a property either :rolleyes:


Seriously though, i do love your optimism but i can't see there not being any other scenario than a massive crash given what is involved.

Yes. The vast majority are not currently looking at property. The stock market has held up, tax receipts have held up and consumer demand has held up.

That's not to say that there will be no affect, but it will not be anything like 2008

brisan

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Let me guess these low earners also wouldn't have been planning on buying a property either :rolleyes:


Seriously though, i do love your optimism but i can't see there not being any other scenario than a massive crash given what is involved.

Low paid workers have no vested interest in the property market and 100k of them losing their jobs will not impact the market ,not even rental yields.


Or so I am reliably informed on here

Even if 50k of people on 20k who lost their jobs were buying property with a higher paid partner that's a 3.5 Billion euro taken out of the Mortgage equation
But there again low paid workers do not buy houses

brisan

flexcon wrote: »

couple

€22K a year salary each
44K X 3.5 is €154,000 plus 15K deposit.

Those houses are not going to disrupt the hot pockets of Dublin or "New builds"

bUt I am just a random person online who occasionally likes to speak out if his arse so please call me on it!

So lower paid workers only buy houses with other lower paid workers ,they never get into a relationship with someone earning 100k
1 earner 100k
1 earner 22k
Mortgage possible 427 deposit 50k house price 477k

1 earner 100k
1 earner 0
Mortgage possible 350 deposit 50k house price 400k

But as you say lower paid workers do not buy property

neutral guy

As far I see people keep talking about supply/demand/ Dublin property prices
There is plenty property on another side of the country which has problems already
Another thing people keep talking about builders and amount of new houses has to be build to cover demand
Prices will not Fall because Builders Will not build !
Wait a minute guys What about already built houses on second hand property market ?
Which is enough to cover demand even if builders will stop build the houses ?
For example John took the mortgage/bought house and put it on renting market
Brigit/Mary and Co which work in hospitality paid the rent/John mortgage
When Covid mess started girls lose jobs/got Covid payments and came back home
Brigit to boyfriend parents house in Donegal and Mary to Co Mayo parents house
They are quite happy with Covid money every week and not even think come back to Dublin because has same money minus rent which they had in Dublin
John house empty he took mortgage holliday
Time clicking.

brisan

Darc19 wrote: »

I've never rated Dan obrien. Very much an indo scaremongerer. Goes for the headline.

Most of the jobs that are affected are in hospitality / tourism where part-time and Lower pay that contributes little tax is the norm.

Many of those affected are getting close to what they earned.

Tax receipts have held up very well especially paye and vat. People are spending and due to the type of industry we have here, most people are not fearful of unemployment.

House prices will drop a little. They needed to. You should be able to buy a decent 3 bed for under €300k in Dublin or places like Celbridge / Sallins.

But I can't see the Armageddon that some suggest.

Remember that the biggest problem in the last recession was a massive drop in tax revenues. Combined with massive personal debt. That is not happening this time.

DAN O’BRIEN
Chief Economist, Institute of International and European Affairs
he must be doing something right to have got that job

The Belly

brisan wrote: »

DAN O’BRIEN
Chief Economist, Institute of International and European Affairs
he must be doing something right to have got that job

He makes simple things complicated. When there is no need.

Cantstandsya

People keep referring to the fact that income tax hasn't been affected much.

Can someone tell me, if someone is on the covid payment does that count towards their pre tax pay and then they get taxed on the total as usual? i.e. are the government giving with one hand and taking away with the other?

Darc19

brisan wrote: »

DAN O’BRIEN
Chief Economist, Institute of International and European Affairs
he must be doing something right to have got that job

I'm not saying he doesn't know his stuff, but he likes to look at it from a pessimistic view.

Perfect for the indo.

Bubbaclaus

Cantstandsya wrote: »

People keep referring to the fact that income tax hasn't been affected much.

Can someone tell me, if someone is on the covid payment does that count towards their pre tax pay and then they get taxed on the total as usual? i.e. are the government giving with one hand and taking away with the other?

It is a taxable payment, like the TWSS, but is not being taxed in real time. Will be collected in future years.

A lot on the covid payment wouldn't be earning enough to pay tax anyway, so probably not a huge amount of it coming back via tax collection.

Cyrus

cubatahavana wrote: »

Why do you say spain is a failed society? Standard of living way better than in Ireland

Is it ?

The Belly

Darc19 wrote: »

I'm not saying he doesn't know his stuff, but he likes to look at it from a pessimistic view.

Perfect for the indo.

you do not need the weatherman to tell you it's raining. And like met they always get it arseways:)

Darc19

The Belly wrote: »

you do not need the weatherman to tell you it's raining. And like met they always get it arseways:)

4 weeks ago he said retail is going to be like the construction sector of the last crash.

Retail excellence who represent retailers said this week that retail has recovered strongly except in city center locations.

Also, a lot of hospitality in the tourism areas of Cork. Kerry, galway and the north west have had a good season.

So targeted supports are apt and I just can't see how the property market can drop in a substantial manner.

Though I am keeping an eye out for value to add property into a pension.

flexcon

Cantstandsya wrote: »

People keep referring to the fact that income tax hasn't been affected much.

Can someone tell me, if someone is on the covid payment does that count towards their pre tax pay and then they get taxed on the total as usual? i.e. are the government giving with one hand and taking away with the other?

Exactly this yes

So most people will owe about 20euro a week back on tax. But this is expected since this would be what they would pay anyway. They are not being had.

Bubbaclaus

cubatahavana wrote: »

Why do you say spain is a failed society? Standard of living way better than in Ireland

Is this meant to be sarcastic or something?

Under what criteria is standard of living in Spain "way better" than in Ireland?

Are you basing it on how much sun they get?