Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

MacronvFrugals

Marius34 wrote: »

1) The fact that savings are growing across all sectors for potential buyers. You can find many reasons why it has no impact, but it's just a believes.

2) Population is growing even excluding migration. I can equally say that we have now higher number of teenagers than in 2011, and big portion of them will be leaving their parents home after highschool. There is no much point to look at this, its enough to check if naturally population is growing or going down.

Those teenagers are living at home way longer than most other countries in the EU, after highschool are you mad?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Source?

Not going to waste my time going back to copy and paste but there were specific statements around google and what they do or don’t do in Ireland that were incorrect. It was only when the poster was pulled up that it became an “opinion”.

three putt

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm only going by what the data is telling me. I will gladly change my opinion in the opposite direction very very quickly if the data shows otherwise.

The data available to date shows a (surprisingly) resilient housing market, this is a fact, e.g:

https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-housingmarketjuly2020

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Not in the house buying demographic.

Total increase in population 2011 – 2016 was 173,613 as per Census 2016:

0 - 34 Years: -72,493 (yes, minus)
35 - 64 Years: +143,932
65 - 85+ Years: +102,174

well what do you define as the house buying demographic?

average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.

Marius34

Marius34 wrote: »

1) The fact that savings are growing across all sectors for potential buyers...........

No restaurateurs or publicans were thinking of buying?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm only going by what the data is telling me. I will gladly change my opinion in the opposite direction very very quickly if the data shows otherwise.

data currently showing no price drops YET well according to CSO and PPR

Marius34

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Those teenagers are living at home way longer than most other countries in the EU, after highschool are you mad?

When I did 1 year in DIT, probably half of Irish guys were renting in Dublin. Meaning requiring additional living space.

fliball123

Cyrus wrote: »

well what do you define as the house buying demographic?

average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.

and I would hazard a guess more people in their 30s will be buying usually and I may be generalizing but in your 20s your more caught up having fun and a social life as apposed to saving and grinding for a mortgage

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Not going to waste my time going back to copy and paste but there were specific statements around google and what they do or don’t do in Ireland that were incorrect. It was only when the poster was pulled up that it became an “opinion”.

I remember the google stuff, but didn't follow it too closely, as I know very little about the makeup of googles workforce.

Personally I think, whether you agree with his opinions or not, PropQueries is pretty consistent about backing up his posts with links to sources that these opinions are based on.

I'd say he stands out more than most for this very reason.

Certainly my impression of his posting history is more often than not somebody will call him out on something, and he'll subsequently provide a link. (or as Cyrus has mentioned post the same links repeatedly to hammer the point home!)

MacronvFrugals

Marius34 wrote: »

When I did 1 year in DIT, probably half of Irish guys were renting in Dublin. Meaning requiring additional living space.

Thats anecdotal figures suggest something different

https://www.thejournal.ie/factfind-under-living-with-parents-4981426-Feb2020/

Marius34

Augeo wrote: »

No restaurateurs or publicans were thinking of buying?

I wasn't not dividing in that small categories. I was more looking at the bigger groups FTB, STB, cash buyers.

JimmyVik

Cyrus wrote: »

well what do you define as the house buying demographic?

average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.

And probably very few 0 - 30 year olds buying houses either

Potatoeman

4700 mortgages more than 10 years in arrears. If you are more than 10 years in arrears it’s not the bank footing the bill it’s other mortgage holders.


https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/mortgage-arrears-mean-thousands-of-families-face-losing-their-houses-39571224.html

thefridge2006

Paddigol wrote: »

He looks fairly seasoned to me.

I'm not looking to start an internet debate over who is more seasoned than who. If I wanted 100% uninformed opinion on the property market I could ask anyone of my social circle - we all have views, just most are based on little other than newspaper headlines, internal prejudices, fears and hopes.

I was just looking to gauge where people who have a specific (albeit not necessarily professional) interest in the property market, and who have followed the debate on this thread over the past 6 months, think the market is heading in the next year.

In March in appeared that there were a lot of people stridently of the view that we were heading for immediate and sharp drops in prices. A few people disagreed but their reasons were often dismissed. We haven't experienced the predicted drop, and I'm just wondering how people's views have shifted in the intervening period (if at all).

Looks fairly seasoned?? or is it just because he shares the same view as you? a poster with a few hundred posts wouldn't be be classed as a seasoned poster IMO.

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

in the context of this thread and quality of posting, i would suggest that he is.

I disagree, just another one that shares your views.

Marius34

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Thats anecdotal figures suggest something different

https://www.thejournal.ie/factfind-under-living-with-parents-4981426-Feb2020/

Because those statistics includes all groups of people, it could 20-30% of people after High schools leaves parent homes, that's already has significance. I don't want to dig in it, as I don't see that much sense with unknown factors to look at each particular age group.

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I disagree, just another one that shares your views.

why what are my views?

thefridge2006

lalababa wrote: »

I find the rental market for house shares in Cork City very strange. For the last 10+ years when they were like hens teeth to find around start of college, maybe 30 places on Daft. Now there's like 280, and yet you have people asking last year's prices and in some cases more! Fair enough some are a bit cheaper than normal, but the overall picture is very weird.

This is what happens.... then they lower the price in a bid to get someone, then lower price again, then again, then again and again until it affordable and makes sense. everyone out there offering a service wants to get the best deal they possible can and would be kicking themselves if they thought they undervalued and left potential cash on the table.

thefridge2006

Marius34 wrote: »

Apart from tight supplies side reasons, some of other fundamental reasons for demands:
Big increase in household savings.
Population growth. (you may think otherwise, but it's not the fact)
WFH - which means there is more needs of Residential space (like office room, etc). While it may affect negatively Dublin City Center, and other expensive Dublin areas, it may increase price for other areas.

I think I know what lists make more sense.... and it's not yours

MacronvFrugals

fliball123 wrote: »

and I would hazard a guess more people in their 30s will be buying usually and I may be generalizing but in your 20s your more caught up having fun and a social life as apposed to saving and grinding for a mortgage

I think more are thinking f that being caught in the rental market, many of my friends (23-28) have started getting the deposit together and some have bought.

fliball123

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

I think more are thinking f that being caught in the rental market, many of my friends (23-28) have started getting the deposit together and some have bought.

Yeah you could be right I would am just going on myself when I was in my early 20s I had absolutely no plan for a mortgage once I hit 25 I started saving like hell

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

And probably very few 0 - 30 year olds buying houses either

True. But it doesn't bode well for the demand for homes in the medium to long term. If net migration doesn't return to the same numbers as in 2017 and 2018, the number of homes entering probate each year will start to get closer and closer to the number of people interested in buying or renting a home. Not good if you're a potential investor and thinking of buying today.

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

the stock of good quality homes rurally isnt great, and people that are seeking to move out of cities will have a big wish list of what they want if they are moving out. A vacant house in a ghost estate isnt going to cut the mustard.

for someone who professes not to have an opinion one way or the other you come down on large price decreases 100% of the time.

Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now?

Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.

hometruths

Paddigol wrote: »

In March in appeared that there were a lot of people stridently of the view that we were heading for immediate and sharp drops in prices. A few people disagreed but their reasons were often dismissed. We haven't experienced the predicted drop, and I'm just wondering how people's views have shifted in the intervening period (if at all).

Interesting point. This was one of my first posts on the subject in early April. (I shudder to think how many I have made since then!)

schmittel wrote: »

I get that nobody knows whats going to happen and I'm no expert but even to a layman it seems plausible that higher property prices in Dublin are function of rental yield and demand:

i.e scarcity of properties to rent pushes rents up, which makes rental yields more attractive to investors and owner occupiers as mortgages are cheaper than rents. Hence demand for property rises, and prices rise.

It would follow that if rents fall, prices will fall too.

The most likely consequence of the coronavirus is that rents will fall because:

a) the arse will fall out the airbnb market - bookings have fallen of a cliff, and a lack of tourists for at least the next three months will see most of these properties offered for longer term lets = increased rental supply.

b) in the unlikely event that supply and demand does not force the hand of most of the airbnb landlords, whatever flavour of government we have after the dust settles will clamp down on the airbnb rules.

c) Increased supply of properties to rent will coincide with some level of decreased demand due to departing foreign casual workers and students etc. In the short term those who have left are unlikely to be replaced with a fresh influx.

This increased supply is likely to come online during and immediately after the lockdown, leading to a flood of availability of rental properties, leading to a flood of headlines about falling rents and the impact this might have on house prices.

The flood of headlines and news stories will lead to the following:

Cash rich investors who might otherwise have bought this year chasing a 6% or whatever yield will wait and see if the prices fall to the level that offers their target yield - decreased demand.

Investors who are not so cash rich, paying mortgages and worried about further falls, will try and get out of the market sooner rather than later - increased supply of stock for sale.

Renters who had planned to buy this year will weigh up cheaper rents vs possibility of further falls and decide to wait and see - decreased fresh demand.

Sellers will hold out for the price they think their property is worth, listings will linger with incremental small price decreases. Each decrease will reinforce the idea the potential buyers belief that it is better to wait.

The only properties that go sale agreed will be from forced sellers who have to sell due to their circumstances. These will be heavily discounted, appearing on the PPR thus putting further downward pressure on the live asking prices.

In the short term property prices will inevitably go down.

I'll reiterate I am no expert but all of the above seems likely, the only question is how long it lasts and by how much prices drop before they bounce again as they surely will.

Obviously whilst rental supply has increased and rents appear to have fallen, the above has not played out as expected yet.

So my views have shifted a little, but not a lot.

I fully expected the new government to crack down hard or airbnb, thus accelerating the increased rental supply - that has not happened.

I did not expect so many landlords to a) leave their properties vacant or b) refuse to reduce advertised rents, instead offering 2 free months or whatever.

These factors have delayed the rental price drops become as wide a talking point as I anticipated.

I still think it will happen in time though.

And I still think fresh investor demand will go down, putting downward pressure on prices.

I did not expect a surge in FTB demand, which seems to be pent up demand from FTB's looking to get in before the lock as it were. This has propped up prices in the last few months. I think this will ultimately wash through though and not be replaced by fresh FTB demand.

I also did not expect the government to continue the wage supports for this long. Back in April it was suggested they would active for 12 weeks - now it seems they are in place until next April.

Ultimately my view is much the same as it was in April, but we won't see it in action until government withdraw the supports.

Hubertj

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now?

Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.

what about a lift?

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/going-up-rathgar-super-homes-with-lifts-for-3-25m-each-1.4355294

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now?

Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.

sorry i must be mistaken, everyone wants to move out of dublin to live in a 3bed semi in an estate then is it?

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

sorry i must be mistaken, everyone wants to move out of dublin to live in a 3bed semi in an estate then is it?

only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

The poorly done roof really plays on my OCD

Looks like either a cheap refurb or a cleaned up rental hitting the market

brisan

lalababa wrote: »

I find the rental market for house shares in Cork City very strange. For the last 10+ years when they were like hens teeth to find around start of college, maybe 30 places on Daft. Now there's like 280, and yet you have people asking last year's prices and in some cases more! Fair enough some are a bit cheaper than normal, but the overall picture is very weird.

Head in the sand stuff
I got X last year and I want X this year
College rental are gone for the year

PropQueries

thefridge2006 wrote: »

only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:

I think the majority of potential buyers would be 'happy enough', but not 'delighted' with just four walls and a roof to call their own. Many younger buyers today still buy and add to their house bit by bit over the years and I think the narrative put out that they all want a home with the latest kit and are willing to pay a significant premium for such housing is mostly wrong.

In relation to the ghost estates, which I think we can all agree that they are now mostly owned by the so-called vulture funds (€200 billion in property and business loans purchased by them between 2012 and 2016) can be brought to market very quickly if they see the demand.

They would have bought them for a fraction of even the low prices advertised during 2012 and 2013. For example, if they have ten houses in an estate down the country, for €10k each, they could put in new heating, windows, doors and a general refurbishment and have them on the market within 8 weeks. There's generally no planning permission needed, no breaking ground etc.

Even if they sell them for €100k each, they would still walk away with a hefty return. I would be of the 'opinion' that this is already in train and many of these houses are about to re-enter the market in their thousands over the next 3 to 18 months as they want out sooner rather than later. Outside the REITS, they have little to no interest in long-term micro-management.