Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Bass Reeves

Dept of finance is revising it predictions on COVID as finances not as hard hit as expected
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections

Marius34

schmittel wrote: »

I may have misinterpreted them, but I haven't avoided these fundamentals. I have commented on all these before:

Big increase in household savings. - could be a factor to support prices, particularly if there is a fear of inflation. Having said that there is some evidence that proportion of cash buyers is falling, and proportion of FTBers is rising.

Population growth - will not make the slightest bit of difference in the next two years.

WFH - it may affect negatively Dublin City Center, and other expensive Dublin areas, it may increase price for other areas - I have been consistent on this. It will hit expensive areas of Dublin hardest, as you point out, and thus bring down the overall average.

Well I provided some facts for the positive side on demand side, as you asked.
If we won't like to see as an impact on demand side, that's another story. Everyone has its on believes, at least I'm consistent, by seeing positive and negative inputs towards property price.

brisan

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Those teenagers are living at home way longer than most other countries in the EU, after highschool are you mad?

Obviously never heard of boomerang kids

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

only if the farmhouse has a bar, decking, swimming pool and games room......:rolleyes:

:rolleyes:indeed

brisan

three putt wrote: »

The data available to date shows a (surprisingly) resilient housing market, this is a fact, e.g:

https://www.daft.ie/report/ronan-lyons-housingmarketjuly2020

While I dont agree or disagree I would take anything Ronan Lyons says in an article paid for by and published on a property website with a large pinch of salt
Much the same as I disregard any article on the property market in the Irish Times who own myHome .ie

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

When I did 1 year in DIT, probably half of Irish guys were renting in Dublin. Meaning requiring additional living space.

Now all the classes are online in their parents box room

Marius34

brisan wrote: »

Now all the classes are online in their parents box room

This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.

brisan

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Do you think its the Celtic Tiger pt2 or something? decking, swimming pools, tennis courts etc? what's on this wish list that people will be able to afford now?

Sounds like you think the majority of people want a wish list of expensive things.

I reckon a roof ,4 walls ,a kitchen and a functioning toilet will do for many at this stage

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.

True, But we will also have an extra couple of thousand purpose built student beds in Dublin. The international students aren't coming back next year either as they would have to make that decision by this January and we will still be in lockdown at that time.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

I reckon a roof ,4 walls ,a kitchen and a functioning toilet will do for many at this stage

itll do for some sure, im referring to the cohort that some posters believe of people in secure well paying jobs that will leave the cities and head to the sanctuary of the countryside.

brisan

Marius34 wrote: »

This year, from next September it could all go back into reverse.

Or it could become the new normal
Days of 120 first year nursing students in a lecture room in trinity with 30-40 sitting on steps may be a thing of the past.
My daughter studied nursing in Trinity ,that's how I know

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

well what do you define as the house buying demographic?

average age of a FTB in ireland is 34.

Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.

To put that into perspective, that's enough new builds to house:

139,192 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 2 persons; or

208,788 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 3 persons (e.g. couple and one child.

It also assumes no probate sales and none of the excess supply of vacant homes re-entered the market in that time period.

I think people seriously underestimate how many residential units we actually have built or have re-entered supply over the past 4 years.

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

True, But we will also have an extra couple of thousand purpose built student beds in Dublin. The international students aren't coming back next year either as they would have to make that decision by this January and we will still be in lockdown at that time.

My dads cousin built a really nice multi room thing out the back garden, its much to nice to call a shed but yeah cost 40k all in.

He got students in for 6 months then the pandemic hit and hes struggling to get students, hes now onto a builder about converting it into a home bar lol

Shoden

It's very frustrating looking to buy in Cork as a single applicant. I'm in the public sector earning 58,000 with top class job security, 10% deposit saved and can still afford sweet FA (excluding run down places) within a half hour of the city. The second hand market under 225k in Cork is poor and the new property market under 250k (including enhanced htb) is very very limited unless you're willing to live a good distance (30 minutes plus) away from friends and family.

I've no point really other than bemoaning the affordability gap around Cork.

brisan

Shoden wrote: »

It's very frustrating looking to buy in Cork as a single applicant. I'm in the public sector earning 58,000 with top class job security, 10% deposit saved and can still afford sweet FA (excluding run down places) within a half hour of the city. The second hand market under 225k in Cork is poor and the new property market under 250k (including enhanced htb) is very very limited unless you're willing to live a good distance (30 minutes plus) away from friends and family.

I've no point really other than bemoaning the affordability gap around Cork.

It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home
That's why 1 bed apartments became popular
Obviously you do not wish to go that route

Shoden

brisan wrote: »

It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home
That's why 1 bed apartments became popular
Obviously you do not wish to go that route

As I understand it: it's harder to get mortgages on them and the resaleability is poor.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.

To put that into perspective, that's enough new builds to house:

139,192 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 2 persons; or

208,788 persons if each new residential unit accommodated 3 persons (e.g. couple and one child.

It also assumes no probate sales and none of the excess supply of vacant homes re-entered the market in that time period.

I think people seriously underestimate how many residential units we actually have built or have re-entered supply over the past 4 years.

So what happened with housing people in residential properties, if we built more than there is demands, has vacancy increased?

MacronvFrugals

brisan wrote: »

It was always hard and always will be hard for a single buyer to buy a home
That's why 1 bed apartments became popular
Obviously you do not wish to go that route

I'd be in a very similar situation to shoden, my da always does be like whatever you do dont buy a 1 bed apartment.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

So what happened with housing people in residential properties, if we built more than there is demands, has vacancy increased?

That's where I become very confused as the current supply/demand issues sure as hell is not down to a lack of supply.

Bubbaclaus

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Dept of finance is revising it predictions on COVID as finances not as hard hit as expected
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0929/1168227-department-of-finance-projections

Very positive data. Especially considering the 2021 figures assume no trade deal.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, we built 69,596 residential units between Q2 2016 and Q2 2020, so I think that should have been more than enough to meet the demand from the 34+ age group demographic.

you are comparing census data from 2016 to build data post that, and most of those built units in that period have already been sold one would assume.

three putt

brisan wrote: »

While I dont agree or disagree I would take anything Ronan Lyons says in an article paid for by and published on a property website with a large pinch of salt
Much the same as I disregard any article on the property market in the Irish Times who own myHome .ie

What source of data would you rely on for the Irish property market?
Using this trusted source, what does the data say about the sales prices in the Irish housing market for 2020?

landofthetree

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Very positive data. Especially considering the 2021 figures assume no trade deal.

But 13% of all jobs will be lost.
https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310965765395406859

Today's
@IRLDeptFinance
economic forecasts for #Budget2021 assume one in seven jobs will be lost this year = a 13.8% drop in employment.

For context, in the 12 months following the banking crash, employment in Ireland contracted by 9%.

Hubertj

landofthetree wrote: »

But 13% of all jobs will be lost.
https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310965765395406859

so while they are saying the economic impact wont be as bad on 1 hand a lot of people will be unemployed. Its like a less severe kick in the nuts... it still hurts a lot

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

That's where I become very confused as the current supply/demand issues sure as hell is not down to a lack of supply.

Because you need to count people not for selected age group, but everyone, and not to forget obsolescence, houses does not stay livable forever.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Because you need to count people not for selected age group, but everyone, and not to forget obsolescence, houses does not stay livable forever.

I think the figure put out for obsolescence is c. 8,000 per year and I think many commentators don't truly believe that figure. But say it's correct, that's 40,000 homes every five years. We had 180,000 vacant livable homes in Census 2016 or 90,000 vacant livable homes in the GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020. So, I don't think obsolescence is as big a factor as some make it out to be.

The_Conductor

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the figure put out for obsolescence is c. 8,000 per year and I think many commentators don't truly believe that figure. But say it's correct, that's 40,000 homes every five years. We had 180,000 vacant livable homes in Census 2016 or 90,000 vacant livable homes in the GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020. So, I don't think obsolescence is as big a factor as some make it out to be.

The census figures for the number of vacant livable properties- was shown to be patently false. Fingal Co. Co., Dublin City Council and Galway City Council- got a list of all the properties listed as vacant by CSO enumerators- and found fewer than 1-in-10 of them were actually vacant. The vast majority were occupied by non-nationals who had refused to acknowledge their presence when someone with a clipboard knocked on their door..........

I think (from memory) the total number of properties found to be vacant in a 100% survey by Dublin city council, at the time, was 382 units.

The CSO did put out a statement after the fact- and there were meetings on how to minimise the likelihood of a similar type data issue occuring in future polls.

On a related note- the census was quietly postponed for a year during Covid- so its going to be a year late.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the figure put out for obsolescence is c. 8,000 per year and I think many commentators don't truly believe that figure. But say it's correct, that's 40,000 homes every five years. We had 180,000 vacant livable homes in Census 2016 or 90,000 vacant livable homes in the GeoDirectory Survey Q2 2020. So, I don't think obsolescence is as big a factor as some make it out to be.

I don't want to discuss Census, as it makes not much sense for what it was looking (one particular night if there was a person staying in property).

GeoDirectory makes more sense, although numbers should not be taken for granted. Even if there is amount of vacant properties, you need to check the trends. As always there will be number of vacant properties in particular for old rural homes.

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

The census figures for the number of vacant livable properties- was shown to be patently false. Fingal Co. Co., Dublin City Council and Galway City Council- got a list of all the properties listed as vacant by CSO enumerators- and found fewer than 1-in-10 of them were actually vacant. The vast majority were occupied by non-nationals who had refused to acknowledge their presence when someone with a clipboard knocked on their door..........

I think (from memory) the total number of properties found to be vacant in a 100% survey by Dublin city council, at the time, was 382 units.

The CSO did put out a statement after the fact- and there were meetings on how to minimise the likelihood of a similar type data issue occuring in future polls.

On a related note- the census was quietly postponed for a year during Covid- so its going to be a year late.

My understanding is that the CSO actually stood by their figures. If you have a link to their retraction, I would genuinely be interested in seeing it. However, if you don't want to believe that figure, maybe the 90,000 in the GeoDirectory survey for Q2 2020 might also be interesting. Either figure is significant.

cnocbui

I own a house that has never been on a census and which I don't think the county council even knows exists, apart from maybe it has a property ID and tax is paid on it, but I'm not sure they cross reference that to anything.

So much for any belief that 'official' means diddly squat.