Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

I own a house that has never been on a census and which I don't think the county council even knows exists, apart from maybe it has a property ID and tax is paid on it, but I'm not sure they cross reference that to anything.

So much for any belief that 'official' means diddly squat.

I'm sure they over-counted the number of vacant homes by 'tens of thousands'. Entirely possible I guess. So, what's the reason why nobody believes the GeoDirectory survey for Q2 2020. There's only two on-the-ground surveys done in Ireland i.e. Census and the GeoDirectory survey. Maybe they're both off by 'tens of thousands'. I'll admit it's entirely possible, but probably not very likely.

PommieBast

thefridge2006 wrote: »

My thinking also. it's all set up to be smashed. We haven't even had winter yet and another national lockdown could be on the cards.

For me the question is whether I would want to live in Dublin after another 6-9 months of this stuff, regardless of what happens to property prices.

Smouse156

My god Pat Davitt talks some ****e! He whinges that new builds are too expensive and that Help The Brickie should extend to second hand houses...failing to realise that all it will do is increase second hand house prices. Plus how will it HELP THE BRICKIE???

Then he tries to reduce stamp on the most overpriced land in Europe. Even in the photo he’s laughing at people:

Calls for ‘crippling’ stamp duty rates on land to be replaced
https://www.independent.ie/business/farming/news/farming-news/calls-for-crippling-stamp-duty-rates-on-land-to-be-replaced-39570882.html

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm sure they over-counted the number of vacant homes by 'tens of thousands'. Entirely possible I guess. So, what's the reason why nobody believes the GeoDirectory survey for Q2 2020. There's only two on-the-ground surveys done in Ireland i.e. Census and the GeoDirectory survey. Maybe they're both off by 'tens of thousands'. I'll admit it's entirely possible, but probably not very likely.

I believe by some extent in GeoDirectory numbers. What I don't believe that there will be massive decrease in number of vacant properties. There always will be number of vacant properties, as I said in particular for old rural properties.
Even now there are hundreds of properties below 50K for sale. Not much interest.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm sure they over-counted the number of vacant homes by 'tens of thousands'. Entirely possible I guess. So, what's the reason why nobody believes the GeoDirectory survey for Q2 2020. There's only two on-the-ground surveys done in Ireland i.e. Census and the GeoDirectory survey. Maybe they're both off by 'tens of thousands'. I'll admit it's entirely possible, but probably not very likely.

A lot - an awful lot - would depend on how GeoDirectory compiled their data set. Such as how they determined if a building was a habitable house or a shed. The Eircode finder seems to use the exact same data set, near as I can tell, and it can't give an Eircode for the house I mentioned, so I think it's reasonable to suppose their methodology isn't that sound.

The readership of this thread is tiny on a national scale, so what are the chances one poster in a tiny sample of the population can find a demonstrable error in the data set? So out of the whole population it could well be they are off by thousands.

By the way, the house in question is on the map, so i suspect they are going off OS data sets and are somehow trying to ascribe use by guestimation, and not physically visiting every building in Ireland and ascertaining what it's true nature and condition is.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

A lot - an awful lot - would depend on how GeoDirectory compiled their data set. Such as how they determined if a building was a habitable house or a shed. The Eircode finder seems to use the exact same data set, near as I can tell, and it can't give an Eircode for the house I mentioned, so I think it's reasonable to suppose their methodology isn't that sound.

The readership of this thread is tiny on a national scale, so what are the chances one poster in a tiny sample of the population can find a demonstrable error in the data set? So out of the whole population it could well be they are off by thousands.

By the way, the house in question is on the map, so i suspect they are going off OS data sets and are somehow trying to ascribe use by guestimation, and not physically visiting every building in Ireland and ascertaining what it's true nature and condition is.

From my understanding, the Census enumerators visit every house and most on more than one occasion. The GeoDirectory survey is completed by the An Post postmen.

I would probably be more skeptical as well if I didn't see the huge number of vacant homes and apartment in South Dublin, where I live or in rural areas when I leave Dublin. That's why I'm inclined to believe both figures. They appear to match what I've been seeing on the ground over the past number of years.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

From my understanding, the Census enumerators visit every house and most on more than one occasion. The GeoDirectory survey is completed by the An Post postmen.

Ah. An post never delivered to the house, it was always a matter of collecting mail from the post office. No census enumerators have ever visited the house, I suspect, as it's not visible from a road and there's a locked gate.

The_Conductor

PropQueries wrote: »

From my understanding, the Census enumerators visit every house and most on more than one occasion. The GeoDirectory survey is completed by the An Post postmen.

That might account for why the Geodirectory survey had over 70k fewer vacant properties than the census did- however, it doesn't account for the manner in which the local authorities visited properties listed as vacant (including some 60k which were also vacant in 2011) and found them not to be vacant at all.

There was considerable press coverage given to the issue at the time- and of course there is a Leo Varadker statement on the matter. Its quite easy to find it- even Google has it in its first few search records if you care to check.

PropQueries

The_Conductor wrote: »

That might account for why the Geodirectory survey had over 70k fewer vacant properties than the census did- however, it doesn't account for the manner in which the local authorities visited properties listed as vacant (including some 60k which were also vacant in 2011) and found them not to be vacant at all.

There was considerable press coverage given to the issue at the time- and of course there is a Leo Varadker statement on the matter. Its quite easy to find it- even Google has it in its first few search records if you care to check.

If it's so easy to find on Google, please find it and post the link as I would be very interested. But, this is my memory of the situation at that time.

There was uproar about the number of vacant houses so Minister Murphy tried to get the CSO to retract. They refused. Then he said he got a local council to do a 'drive-by' of one of the estates that were down as vacant in the Census. Given that this drive-by was completed several months or more than a year after the Census date, it's entirely possible they were occupied between the Census date and when the 'drive-by' took place, which may have been up to year or more later.

But, the CSO stood by their vacant homes figures as at April 2016 and never retracted from my understanding. They just all kept quite and hoped the issue would go away.

cnocbui

Admitting to mistakes or wrongdoing is not part of the Irish national psyche, either at an individual or organisational level.

brisan

three putt wrote: »

What source of data would you rely on for the Irish property market?
Using this trusted source, what does the data say about the sales prices in the Irish housing market for 2020?

When it comes to the Irish property market I do not trust anybody but myself
The Irish have a weird fascination with property (myself included ) and every writer has an agenda or is paid to write an agenda .
Do you honestly think Daft or MyHome are going to publish something that frightens the property market and the Vendors that make them money

Bubbaclaus

landofthetree wrote: »

But 13% of all jobs will be lost.
https://mobile.twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310965765395406859

And 7% jobs growth estimated in 2021, a pessimistic figure which assumes no deal Brexit.

During the financial crisis we were losing jobs for years and sliding deeper into the abyss. Not the case currently.

hometruths

The_Conductor wrote: »

The census figures for the number of vacant livable properties- was shown to be patently false. Fingal Co. Co., Dublin City Council and Galway City Council- got a list of all the properties listed as vacant by CSO enumerators- and found fewer than 1-in-10 of them were actually vacant. The vast majority were occupied by non-nationals who had refused to acknowledge their presence when someone with a clipboard knocked on their door..........

I think (from memory) the total number of properties found to be vacant in a 100% survey by Dublin city council, at the time, was 382 units.

The CSO did put out a statement after the fact- and there were meetings on how to minimise the likelihood of a similar type data issue occuring in future polls.

On a related note- the census was quietly postponed for a year during Covid- so its going to be a year late.

Has it really been demonstrated to be patently false?

You say Fingal "got a list of all the properties listed as vacant by CSO enumerators - and found fewer than 1-in-10 of them were actually vacant."

Far from saying mea culpa, the CSO put out statement saying

As part of this work, they recorded vacant dwellings in their area, using detailed methodology and definitions applied consistently over the past three consecutive Censuses. The CSO is confident that it's vacant dwelling figures are a robust point-in-time record around the 24th April 2016.
In relation to the recent sample survey work on vacant dwellings conducted by Fingal County Council, the CSO did not provide a list of vacant dwellings to the Council as the CSO only ever disseminates aggregate statistics.

So a) they defended their methodology robustly and b) they did not give Fingal details of the vacant properties as if often claimed, as above.

They then did further supplementary analysis of the vacancy figures and once again reaffirmed they stood over their data.

I really cannot see how people are so quick to rubbish the CSO who's very raison d'etre is accuracy in favour of Fingal County Council Vacant Housing Dept whose very raison d'etre is reporting as low a number of vacant houses.

And although this has come up time and time again on here, nobody has yet pointed any credible analysis to suggest Fingal's figures are any more accurate than the CSOs.

As far as I can see it remans a case of he said, she said, who do you believe? The CSO or Fingal County Council.

It is not in the realms of conspiracy theory to believe the CSO!!!

Indeed the CSO also said:

The CSO is in the process of contacting Fingal County Council to seek information on a number of issues, including the methodology and definitions applied by the council in compiling their numbers

But I cannot find any info on whether or not Fingal shared their methodology other than

A desk-top study to “drill into the figures” identified 361 potentially vacant dwellings.

“Pilot inspections in two areas of the county were carried out, with 74 [of the 361 units] inspected, resulting in 13 units identified as actually vacant.”

So they rubbished the CSO after visiting 74 properties?

The_Conductor wrote: »

There was considerable press coverage given to the issue at the time- and of course there is a Leo Varadker statement on the matter. Its quite easy to find it- even Google has it in its first few search records if you care to check.

Sure it is easy to find the detail of the story. What is far less easy to find is any impartial evidence that the CSO got it wrong.

Can you link to whatever you have seen that proves the census figures to be "patently false"?

thefridge2006

Property report claims thousands of tech workers left Dublin during pandemic

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/property-report-claims-thousands-of-tech-workers-left-dublin-during-pandemic-39572891.html


Looks like Davy's were caught making up stuff to spook the rental market, how many more dirty tricks are going on ?

This is actually hilarious what a bunch of snakes.....

something funny going on here..... looks like Davys are extremely worried to come up with this type of underhanded dirty move

"Davy declined to respond to questions about the report, which was circulated widely among its clients."

awec

Maybe Davy's source was this forum and all the posters claiming there had been a mass exodus of MNC workers out of Ireland?

The Davy report says that the figures come from “anecdotal” sources.

The article is fairly comprehensive in rubbishing the notion that employees can now just move wherever they want.

thefridge2006

awec wrote: »

Maybe Davy's source was this forum and all the posters claiming there had been an exodus of workers out of Ireland?

ha, or maybe they are beginning to see the writing on the wall and trying dirty tactics to bleed the last bit of money out of people ?

Either way, they are making up reports but using anecdotal evidence..... that screams desperation to me.

awec

thefridge2006 wrote: »

ha, or maybe they are beginning to see the writing on the wall and trying dirty tactics to bleed the last bit of money out of people ?

Either way, they are making up reports but using anecdotal evidence..... that screams desperation to me.

The report was clearly nonsense but they are not alone in using their imagination.

They weren't the only ones to be suckered by this anecdotal stuff, the claim that MNC workers can just go wherever they want, and have already left en-masse, has been posted numerous times on this very forum as if it were fact.

MacronvFrugals

Google tells workers to return to country where they are employed


“have been asked to return by year end, partly due to tax and legal reasons”


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674

Hubertj

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Property report claims thousands of tech workers left Dublin during pandemic

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/property-report-claims-thousands-of-tech-workers-left-dublin-during-pandemic-39572891.html


Looks like Davy's were caught making up stuff to spook the rental market, how many more dirty tricks are going on ?

This is actually hilarious what a bunch of snakes.....

something funny going on here..... looks like Davys are extremely worried to come up with this type of underhanded dirty move

"Davy declined to respond to questions about the report, which was circulated widely among its clients."

a couple of my nextdoor neighbours work in google. they went home to southern europe for a few months.
LinkedIn were advised they could leave Ireland for maximum 6 months.
I'd imagine some left Dublin and rented elsehwere to take advantage of cheaper rent for a year.

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

a couple of my nextdoor neighbours work in google. they went home to southern europe for a few months.
LinkedIn were advised they could leave Ireland for maximum 6 months.
I'd imagine some left Dublin and rented elsehwere to take advantage of cheaper rent for a year.

Google have told workers come back by the end of the year over tax issues.

hometruths

awec wrote: »

Maybe Davy's source was this forum and all the posters claiming there had been a mass exodus of MNC workers out of Ireland?



The article is fairly comprehensive in rubbishing the notion that employees can now just move wherever they want.

And fairly comprehensive in confirming the notion that employees can now just move wherever they want in Ireland.

The tech giant has a ‘flexible working’ policy that allows staff to work outside the office but within Ireland.

Even if they can't walk for a pint

thefridge2006

ah yeah it would make sense for people working from home until late 2021 to move elsewhere to get cheaper rent etc but the fact that Davy is plucking numbers out of the air and using them factually "which was circulated widely
among its clients" is very much a sign of desperation imo.

We must be in the denial stage of a recession....

awec

schmittel wrote: »

And fairly comprehensive in confirming the notion that employees can now just move wherever they want in Ireland.



Even if they can't walk for a pint

They hardly needed confirmed?

hometruths

awec wrote: »

They hardly needed confirmed?

Not to you clearly, but there are plenty of WFH deniers on here.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Not to you clearly, but there are plenty of WFH deniers on here.

I for one am embracing my WFH and looking forward to the days when walking for a pint at Friday lunchtime is on the cards.

Interested Observer

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Google tells workers to return to country where they are employed


“have been asked to return by year end, partly due to tax and legal reasons”


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/technology/google-tells-workers-to-return-to-country-where-they-are-employed-1.4367674

Facebook have done the same.

I work for a large US company in Dublin. The company gave us a bit of leeway over the summer and plenty of people went home to their native countries for a few months or so, and many gave up their leases in Dublin as well, but pretty much everyone is coming back. They'll ask be looking for a place to live and I don't know of a single person who is relocating permanently.

Lux23

Interested Observer wrote: »

Facebook have done the same.

I work for a large US company in Dublin. The company gave us a bit of leeway over the summer and plenty of people went home to their native countries for a few months or so, and many gave up their leases in Dublin as well, but pretty much everyone is coming back. They'll ask be looking for a place to live and I don't know of a single person who is relocating permanently.

How are they going to enforce it though over the next couple of months given Dublin's rate of infection?

Interested Observer

Lux23 wrote: »

How are they going to enforce it though over the next couple of months given Dublin's rate of infection?

What a strange question.

hometruths

In searching for the elusive info confirming the CSO's data to be patently false and Fingal Co Co's to be the gold standard I found some more interesting stuff about vacant properties in Fingal Co Co.

From January 2018 IT article - Number of vacant homes in Dublin said to be between 900 and 1,000 - Local authorities found average actual vacancy rate about 3% of that indicated by CSO

“Pilot inspections in two areas of the county were carried out, with 74 [of the 361 units] inspected, resulting in 13 units identified as actually vacant.”

This suggests about 64 vacant dwellings across the entire council area, or 1.2 per cent of those identified by the CSO.

Given that Fingal are claiming only 64 vacant dwellings across the entire council it was strange to discover that in 2017 there were 121 vacant local authority properties in Fingal according to the National Oversight and Audit Commission

So almost twice as many vacant properties owned by Fingal Co Co themselves in 2017 as they claimed were vacant "across the entire council area."

An August 2018 article in the Fingal Independent may explain why Fingal Co Co have such low vacancy figures compared to the CSO and the National Oversight and Audit Commission:

But while the council said it did not comment on individual 'void' units, a spokesperson for the local authority, said: 'It should be noted that unoccupied and boarded dwellings are not necessarily an indication of vacant possession.

I think it is safe to assume the census enumerators would have consider boarded up houses as vacant if they found them to be unoccupied.

Speaking of the census the spokesperson continued:

Fingal County Council's average monthly void rate is less than one per cent of its social housing stock at a time when a base vacancy rate of six per cent of total housing stock is normally expected within a properly functioning housing market.

'Indeed, the 2016 Census showed that the county's overall vacancy rate was 4.7% which was one of the lowest in Ireland.'

A year after rubbishing the census data on the number of vacant units Fingal are quoting it in defence of the number of local authority vacant units.

Fast forward to August 2020 and Fingal Co Council are not holding back in accepting their share of €40 million for the return of approximately 2,500 vacant local authority properties

Fingal's share is €1,159,030 - the govt estimates of 12.k per property suggests they are budgeting to refurbish 92 properties, but possibly not the boarded up and unoccupied ones.

Based on all this I hope the census skeptics will forgive me if I prefer to rely on the CSO data.

Instinct tells me they are simply a more credible source.

thefridge2006

thefridge2006 wrote: »

ha, or maybe they are beginning to see the writing on the wall and trying dirty tactics to bleed the last bit of money out of people ?

Either way, they are making up reports but using anecdotal evidence..... that screams desperation to me.

Davy wouldn't be biased towards Irish residential letting. They're a stockbroker..... They get their cut regardless of what folk invest in with them.