Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

The_Fitz

Pelezico wrote: »

There is no rental crisis. There are more houses for rent in Dublin than there have been for years.

Airbnb tourists, students write have dented the rental market.

I would say there is still a rental crisis. The rent that I am paying for my property in Dublin is disgusting. Rent has gone down minimally around me.

PropQueries

The_Fitz wrote: »

I suppose the only answer to both is to build more houses, and quickly. And not allow vulture funds to sweep them up, ensuring that rent coming back is coming back to the state?

I don't think vulture funds will be interested in any residential units in Ireland at the moment or for the foreseeable future. Their modus operandi is buy, not just cheap, but really really cheap and sell high.

They bought most of their properties back between 2012 and 2016 at a fraction of even the low advertised prices at that time. If anything, I'd believe they already have their strategies laid out to exit the Irish market in the very near future.

PropQueries

The_Fitz wrote: »

I would say there is still a rental crisis. The rent that I am paying for my property in Dublin is disgusting. Rent has gone down minimally around me.

Well you can 100% blame the government for that one. The average HAP payment is €1,800 per month and is probably the only reason rents have risen over the past 4 years.

Smouse156

Pelezico wrote: »

There is no rental crisis. There are more houses for rent in Dublin than there have been for years.

Airbnb tourists, students and general unemployment have dented the rental market.

Not now of course! But if we do get a vaccine and some form of normality returns we could be straight back in a rental crisis in a year or two where half of Dublin goes to work purely to enrich the landlord

The_Fitz

PropQueries wrote: »

I don't think vulture funds will be interested in any residential units in Ireland at the moment or for the foreseeable future. Their modus operandi is buy, not just cheap, but really really cheap and sell high.

They bought most of their properties back between 2012 and 2016 at a fraction of even the low advertised prices at that time. If anything, I'd believe they already have their strategies laid out to exit the Irish market in the very near future.

Without pretending to be qualified in knowing what I'm talking about, I'd imagine the exit of the vulture fund would be in their mind prematurely, and therefore they would sell off their residential properties at a lower rate than they had hoped?

PropQueries wrote: »

Well you can 100% blame the government for that one. The average HAP payment is €1,800 per month and is probably the only reason rents have risen over the past 4 years.

Again, don't understand it all, but surely HAP wouldn't have been increased unless there were private rental increases? How much of the HAP payment is the state getting back through state owned properties, therefore why would they willingly increase the payment?

AdamD

PropQueries wrote: »

I think the difference now is that we have a proper motorway network and the internet will be in every house in the country within a few years. For example, Limerick to Dublin is now only a 2 hour drive. Older staff will most likely not move but younger staff may be a lot more open to the idea.

Despite what many believe, the young people today spend most of their time online instead of going to the pub/niteclubs several nights a week. The benefits of city living are still there but the draw isn't as big as when I was a young man.

For example, if they want to hook up (or whatever word is used these days) with a partner, today they just use Tinder etc. When I was young, you had to go to the pub/niteclub to potentially engage in such activities.

Ehhhhhh?

None of this is accurate. For example try using Tinder in a rural area, not a whole load of options. And 90% of Tinder dates are going to involve going to a pub or bar anyway. Young professionals absolutely do not spend their weekends 'online', at least not pre-pandemic.

Claw Hammer

The_Fitz wrote: »

I would say there is still a rental crisis. The rent that I am paying for my property in Dublin is disgusting. Rent has gone down minimally around me.

The fact is that rents are going down. That is going to be a continuing process.

PropQueries

Smouse156 wrote: »

Not now of course! But if we do get a vaccine and some form of normality returns we could be straight back in a rental crisis in a year or two where half of Dublin goes to work purely to enrich the landlord

I don't believe there will be a V shaped recovery. Tourism is on its knees for at least the next 3-5 years. Construction of offices, hotels, student accommodation won't ever get back to 2016-2019 levels, so we will need less construction workers even if residential building does take off.

International students aren't coming back next year either as they would need to decide by this January and we will still be in lockdown. Once a vaccine is discovered and rolled out, taxation will go through the roof to repay the debt, which will place a further drag on the economy over the next 5-10 years.

But we're still probably going to build c.18,000 residential units this year and probably the same or more next year so supply is continuing to increase while demand will continue to decrease.

hometruths

PropQueries wrote: »

For example, if they want to hook up (or whatever word is used these days) with a partner, today they just use Tinder etc. When I was young, you had to go to the pub/niteclub to potentially engage in such activities.

I can never decide whether I’m jealous of the young because of the ease and volume of opportunity Tinder affords them, or sympathetic because they’re missing out on the thrill of the challenges that Tinder denies them.

On balance I think I save my sympathy for the fact they have it much harder buying a house (just to keep the mods happy!)

MacronvFrugals

schmittel wrote: »

I can never decide whether I’m jealous of the young because of the ease and volume of opportunity Tinder affords them, or sympathetic because they’re missing out on the thrill of the challenges that Tinder denies them.

On balance I think I save my sympathy for the fact they have it much harder buying a house (just to keep the mods happy!)

Thats one way of looking at it, another is you're also in competition with the best looking people in the country.

I'm waiting for the avocado toast brigade to attack you for saying this :P

PropQueries

AdamD wrote: »

Ehhhhhh?

None of this is accurate. For example try using Tinder in a rural area, not a whole load of options. And 90% of Tinder dates are going to involve going to a pub or bar anyway. Young professionals absolutely do not spend their weekends 'online', at least not pre-pandemic.

I suppose I meant that the extreme loneliness/isolation shouldn't be as big a factor as it used to be in rural areas. Plus, no matter where a person would decide to live along the Dublin-Limerick motorway, they're probably less than an hours drive from their nearest big city i.e. Limerick or Dublin.

I remember 25 years ago, if you were driving from Dublin to Kerry, you would have considered booking a hotel half way down to break up the journey (I'm not messing). Now, you can be there in no time at all. The motorway network and internet have really opened up living options that simply didn't exist 20 years ago.

But I'll admit it still doesn't make up nearly enough for the lack of regular human contact. I suppose it's a good option for people who were brought up along this route and it gives them the option. If they choose the option, it then creates less demand and lower prices for a person who truly wants to live in Dublin.

MacronvFrugals

Looking IRES's portfolio they own lots of apartments in Ballymun, since the beginning of March a really high volume of these apartments have went up for sale, i wonder are they looking to quietly build up some cash reserves.

PropQueries

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Looking IRES's portfolio they own lots of apartments in Ballymun, since the beginning of March a really high volume of these apartments have went up for sale, i wonder are they looking to quietly build up some cash reserves.

Thanks. Good to know the areas they're selling in.

Here you go about IRES REIT selling 150 apartments: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-to-sell-off-50m-in-assets-after-buoyant-first-half-39432452.html

MacronvFrugals

PropQueries wrote: »

Thanks. Good to know the areas they're selling in.

Here you go about IRES REIT selling 150 apartments: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-to-sell-off-50m-in-assets-after-buoyant-first-half-39432452.html

Thanks Prop, evidently not so quiet after all.

PropQueries

Here's an interesting one in the Irish Times today. 25 rental apartments in Stillorgan for sale. 8 vacant: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/stillorgan-apartment-portfolio-at-9-7m-offers-5-5-yield-1.4366634

Potatoeman

I don’t see SF doing as well in the next election. It was a protest vote for many that didn’t expect them to do well. Many more didn’t realise how socialist leaning they are and that’s what FF and FG need to highlight.

L1011

Potatoeman wrote: »

I don’t see SF doing as well in the next election. It was a protest vote for many that didn’t expect them to do well. Many more didn’t realise how socialist leaning they are and that’s what FF and FG need to highlight.

They are still polling the same or slightly higher than the result in February, and as they are not in Government, its not like there are any actions for people to see.

Assetbacked

PropQueries wrote: »

Here's an interesting one in the Irish Times today. 25 rental apartments in Stillorgan for sale. 8 vacant: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/stillorgan-apartment-portfolio-at-9-7m-offers-5-5-yield-1.4366634

You'd know IT have a vested interest in the market with the way the article is written.

It talks about "stabilised net rental income" as a selling point, whatever that term is supposed to mean.

Edit: described here https://study.com/academy/lesson/calculating-stabilized-net-operating-income-in-real-estate.html#

Potatoeman

L1011 wrote: »

They are still polling the same or slightly higher than the result in February, and as they are not in Government, its not like there are any actions for people to see.

My sister and husband voted for them. She seemed to think taxing the rich is not her and her husband on a combined income of 100k. There are an awful lot of people under this delusion.

Pelezico

Assetbacked wrote: »

You'd know IT have a vested interest in the market with the way the article is written.

It talks about "stabilised net rental income" as a selling point, whatever that term is supposed to mean.

Edit: described here https://study.com/academy/lesson/calculating-stabilized-net-operating-income-in-real-estate.html#

Average rent projected at 1853pm with full occupancy. Why are so many vacant?

Assetbacked

Pelezico wrote: »

Average rent projected at 1853pm with full occupancy. Why are so many vacant?

Controlling supply to keep rents artificially high?

Taylor365

Potatoeman wrote: »

My sister and husband voted for them. She seemed to think taxing the rich is not her and her husband on a combined income of 100k. There are an awful lot of people under this delusion.

Who else will you vote for?


I'd rather chaos than the same ole boys club!

Darc19

PropQueries wrote: »

Here's an interesting one in the Irish Times today. 25 rental apartments in Stillorgan for sale. 8 vacant: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/stillorgan-apartment-portfolio-at-9-7m-offers-5-5-yield-1.4366634

Vacant possession gets a better price, so the chances are that any that became vacant over the past 12 months were not let out.

Usually these funds plan sales many months in advance.

Darc19

Interesting to see most lots sell in today's bidx1 auction.

Prices of anything decent got 10%-20% above the amv.

A dozen or so properties that did not sell in the June 30th auction sold above the June reserve.

Smouse156

Assetbacked wrote: »

You'd know IT have a vested interest in the market with the way the article is written.

It talks about "stabilised net rental income" as a selling point, whatever that term is supposed to mean.

Edit: described here https://study.com/academy/lesson/calculating-stabilized-net-operating-income-in-real-estate.html#

Stabilised Net rental incomes assumes 100% occupancy at pre-COVID rates and applying increases of 4% whenever they’re due....dream on

Darc19

Smouse156 wrote: »

Stabilised Net rental incomes assumes 100% occupancy at pre-COVID rates and applying increases of 4% whenever they’re due....dream on

Most investors will look at the actual figures.

The suggested rent is €2,000 per two bed unit.

Considering the location, this is probably what the market will pay.

But any good buyer will also look at a worse case scenario. Let's say €1500.

That's still 4.5% gross and long term investors would accept that easily.

Pelezico

Banks must engage with mortgages in arrears warns CBI. I reckon that is code for continued non payment and maybe even a moratorium on interest payments.

Little wonder that Irish mortgage rates are so high and Ulster Bank is running for the hills.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0930/1168452-lenders-must-engage-constructively-on-breaks-warns-cbi/

Potatoeman

Taylor365 wrote: »

Who else will you vote for?


I'd rather chaos than the same ole boys club!

It won’t be chaos, it will be a saddle on you to pay for those that won’t work as foreign investment runs to avoid the socialists looking to steal their assets.

snotboogie

AdamD wrote: »

Ehhhhhh?

None of this is accurate. For example try using Tinder in a rural area, not a whole load of options. And 90% of Tinder dates are going to involve going to a pub or bar anyway. Young professionals absolutely do not spend their weekends 'online', at least not pre-pandemic.

Agreed but at the same time Ireland has quite a lot in between the "big schmoke" vs "dancing at the crossroads outside your McMansion" false dichotomy plugged by some on here.

manniot2

Brother was at a viewing in Dublin city Centre this evening. About 20 parties queuing when he arrived. Some life left yet in the city hopefully.