Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Bass Reeves

neutral guy wrote: »

Heard many similar stories in 2007.

But in 2007 the people quing up would be buying there 3rd or 4th house, this time they are queing for there first house

neutral guy

Bass Reeves wrote: »

But in 2007 the people quing up would be buying there 3rd or 4th house, this time they are queing for there first house

Today Reit and similar buy 100-250 houses.Even more than ordinary people before !

Ozark707

manniot2 wrote: »

Brother was at a viewing in Dublin city Centre this evening. About 20 parties queuing when he arrived. Some life left yet in the city hopefully.

Rent or buy?

Graham

Mod Note

Neutral guy, if you continue to steer every thread into a "What Neutral Guy and his friends did in 2007" thread, you will be thread banned. There will be no further warnings.

Do not reply to this post.

Assetbacked

Potatoeman wrote: »

It won’t be chaos, it will be a saddle on you to pay for those that won’t work as foreign investment runs to avoid the socialists looking to steal their assets.

That's not true. The cost of sustaining the handout class becomes a lot cheaper when housing is inexpensive.

Pelezico

Darc19 wrote: »

Vacant possession gets a better price, so the chances are that any that became vacant over the past 12 months were not let out.

Usually these funds plan sales many months in advance.

You reckon? I bet these show up in the next census as vacant possession to add to all the other houses in Dublin which are vacant.

How can an asset which is supposed to be an income stream be worth more by not producing money?

awec

Pelezico wrote: »

You reckon? I bet these show up in the next census as vacant possession to add to all the other houses in Dublin which are vacant.

How can an asset which is supposed to be an income stream be worth more by not producing money?

Vacant opens you to a wider pool of buyers.

Pelezico

awec wrote: »

Vacant opens you to a wider pool of buyers.

They are selling these as a block of apartments. One buyer for the lot.

I reckon they cant achieve full occupancy and hence they are very vacant.

awec

Pelezico wrote: »

They are selling these as a block of apartments. One buyer for the lot.

I reckon they cant achieve full occupancy and hence they are very vacant.

Oh I missed that. You are probably right.

Taylor365

Darc19 wrote: »

That's still 4.5% gross and long term investors would accept that easily.

That's a liability for anyone but big business.

Pelezico

Taylor365 wrote: »

That's a liability for anyone but big business.

Well, if so many are vacant, there is not a chance of a yield anywhere close to 4.5%. More like 2.8% if they are lucky.

After that comes insurance, maintenance, property tax.

Rents have to fall to fill the surplus of properties on the market.

Leozord

Highest surge in asking price since Q1 2017



More details in: https://www.myhome.ie/reports

By looking at it, this Q3 was the "best" this year for covid when it comes to economic activity. It was expected that the price would go up.

I don't think the same will happen in Q4, but let's wait and see how it goes.

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

But in 2007 the people quing up would be buying there 3rd or 4th house, this time they are queing for there first house

Plenty were in a queue for their first home in 2007 trying to get on the ladder, let's not pretend it was all buy to let folk.

Assetbacked

Assetbacked wrote: »

That's not true. The cost of sustaining the handout class becomes a lot cheaper when housing is inexpensive.

I fear the handout class will grow once/if the waiting list to get a forever home shortens.

PropQueries

Augeo wrote: »

I fear the handout class will grow once/if the waiting list to get a forever home shortens.

There's no such thing in Ireland as a 'handout class' unless you're referring to pensioners of course.

Link to the breakdown of the social welfare spend in 2019: https://whereyourmoneygoes.gov.ie/en/socialprotection/2019/

PropQueries

Leozord wrote: »

Highest surge in asking price since Q1 2017



More details in: https://www.myhome.ie/reports

By looking at it, this Q3 was the "best" this year for covid when it comes to economic activity. It was expected that the price would go up.

I don't think the same will happen in Q4, but let's wait and see how it goes.

There were also some other findings in the report:

“He said the reason for the Q3 rise in the annual figures lies in the fact that July to September is normally a weak period for pricing in the housing market, capturing the end of the summer season. With some pent-up demand caused by the constraints of lockdown and subsequent a “surge” in Q3 activity, the annual performance was flattered compared to last year’s normal weak period. Asking price inflation will likely fall back in Q4,” he said”

The finding that will most likely impact on future demand was on mortgage approvals:

“There was a quarterly rebound in mortgage approvals after lockdown in the third quarter to €670 million, but this was still down by roughly a third on the same period last year. Mr MacCoille estimated that transaction volumes in the period were down by about 37 per cent, which is only slightly better than the 40 per cent decline between April and June.”

He also commented: “The average mortgage approval in the quarter was €247,000 per application, which is up 4 per cent year-on-year. Mr MacCoille said this may have been because weaker and lower income applicants were weeded out of the system as many people among that cohort may have been excluded because they were on pandemic unemployment payments.”

So it looks like the figures are distorted by the Q2 sales just moving to Q3 and both the number of transactions and mortgage approvals in Q3 were still down by over a third in both cases. If both transactions and mortgage approvals were down over a third in Q3 on last years figures, I’m at a loss as to why I’ve being reading so much over the past three months about all this demand.

Cairn Homes also stated last month that they were already back to 85% of pre-covid construction levels, so it looks like new home building is holding up remarkably well despite the covid restrictions.

It should also be noted that the projections for housing demand in 2020 were based on net migration being at c. 30,000. A figure that will be highly unlikely.

Link to article in Irish Times on the report here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/house-asking-prices-rebound-but-will-likely-fall-again-myhome-1.4368771

fliball123

Leozord wrote: »

Highest surge in asking price since Q1 2017



More details in: https://www.myhome.ie/reports

By looking at it, this Q3 was the "best" this year for covid when it comes to economic activity. It was expected that the price would go up.

I don't think the same will happen in Q4, but let's wait and see how it goes.

Am I reading that correctly that asking prices in Q3 are up?? That is completely running against what a lot of posters are spouting on here and would back what I have been saying. Can we believe a source like myhome (vested interest) ?? But it is only asking price so we will have to wait for Q3 selling prices via CSO and PPR.

Also the amount of properties available on myhome is down again at least 500 properties less now available for sale today than this day last month. Also via PPR an increase in activity for the last 2 weeks. (not much about 150 extra properties sold) it will be interesting to see if this keeps going up.

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

Plenty were in a queue for their first home in 2007 trying to get on the ladder, let's not pretend it was all buy to let folk.

Bank of Ireland gave out more buy to let than first time buyer mortgages in 2007

javaboy

Sligo marked as steady even though it dropped.

Wexford, Mayo, Westmeath, Leitrim, Louth all have such small changes, they could be marked with blue arrows. It's a bit misleading.

MacronvFrugals

Ireland has among highest rates of home-working during Covid


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/ireland-has-among-highest-rates-of-home-working-during-covid-1.4369346

Bass Reeves

Augeo wrote: »

Plenty were in a queue for their first home in 2007 trying to get on the ladder, let's not pretend it was all buy to let folk.

There was a lot of other factors in play in 2007 that are not in play now. Builders had gone to the stage of not preselling houses and completing whole estates before a house was put up for sale. Banks were lending virtually unlimited amounts to both builders and house buyers. Even small builders were allowed to carry 5-10 houses to construction stage.

People comparing now to 2007 is like comparing apples to oranges. In a village near me there was a builder with 8 houses completed unsold, another development with about 5houses complete, a developer who has accumulated 2pieces of adjoining land and three houses at a cost of about 3 million, average site cost approximately 40k in a village 10-15miles from Limerick City.

Nearly every village or town with in 20 miles of Limerick was similar. Cork, and Galway were worse.

Smouse156

fliball123 wrote: »

Am I reading that correctly that asking prices in Q3 are up?? That is completely running against what a lot of posters are spouting on here and would back what I have been saying. Can we believe a source like myhome (vested interest) ?? But it is only asking price so we will have to wait for Q3 selling prices via CSO and PPR.

Also the amount of properties available on myhome is down again at least 500 properties less now available for sale today than this day last month. Also via PPR an increase in activity for the last 2 weeks. (not much about 150 extra properties sold) it will be interesting to see if this keeps going up.

Irish Times/My Home/Pat Davitt love pump & dump

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Am I reading that correctly that asking prices in Q3 are up?? That is completely running against what a lot of posters are spouting on here and would back what I have been saying. Can we believe a source like myhome (vested interest) ?? But it is only asking price so we will have to wait for Q3 selling prices via CSO and PPR.

Also the amount of properties available on myhome is down again at least 500 properties less now available for sale today than this day last month. Also via PPR an increase in activity for the last 2 weeks. (not much about 150 extra properties sold) it will be interesting to see if this keeps going up.

But transactions in Q3 were still down by a third compared to the same quarter last year, so I don't see where all this demand is that is being reported.

In relation to the activity on the PPR, I read recently that since the filing of stamp duty has now moved fully online (from 1st September), this may result in a short term increase in PPR numbers or make them more up to date or make comparisons with the same month last year a bit more difficult?

If there's a solicitor etc. here who could advise if this would be correct?

Smouse156

Dropped from 725k (165k drop)

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/12116186

I guess with the collapse of rental demand, no justification for high apartment prices.

It’s also ultra annoying those websites do not show the price drops, just re-list at a lower price

Dick Turnip

Smouse156 wrote: »

Dropped from 725k (165k drop)

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/12116186

I guess with the collapse of rental demand, no justification for high apartment prices.

It’s also ultra annoying those websites do not show the price drops, just re-list at a lower price

Yes, I've noticed that too. A house I viewed in July for 325k I see is now at 295k but they simply took down the old one and reposted as a new ad so the price drop wouldn't show. If possible, Daft should link a listing by eircode to avoid this.

Bass Reeves

Bass Reeves wrote: »

But in 2007 the people quing up would be buying there 3rd or 4th house, this time they are queing for there first house

Bass Reeves wrote: »

There was a lot of other factors in play in 2007 that are not in play now. Builders had gone to the stage of not preselling houses and completing whole estates before a house was put up for sale. Banks were lending virtually unlimited amounts to both builders and house buyers. Even small builders were allowed to carry 5-10 houses to construction stage.

People comparing now to 2007 is like comparing apples to oranges. In a village near me there was a builder with 8 houses completed unsold, another development with about 5houses complete, a developer who has accumulated 2pieces of adjoining land and three houses at a cost of about 3 million, average site cost approximately 40k in a village 10-15miles from Limerick City.

Nearly every village or town with in 20 miles of Limerick was similar. Cork, and Galway were worse.

I just pointed out plenty ftb people queued in 2007 ...... After you stated something about those queuing were doing so for their 3rd & 4th house which is largely untrue.

fliball123

Dick Turnip wrote: »

Yes, I've noticed that too. A house I viewed in July for 325k I see is now at 295k but they simply took down the old one and reposted as a new ad so the price drop wouldn't show. If possible, Daft should link a listing by eircode to avoid this.

I dont know why a seller would do this if I had a property and dropped it by 30k I would want everyone to know as it would be a selling piont

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But transactions in Q3 were still down by a third compared to the same quarter last year, so I don't see where all this demand is that is being reported.

In relation to the activity on the PPR, I read recently that since the filing of stamp duty has now moved fully online (from 1st September), this may result in a short term increase in PPR numbers or make them more up to date or make comparisons with the same month last year a bit more difficult?

If there's a solicitor etc. here who could advise if this would be correct?

Well wouldn't corona, property viewing restrictions, mortgage approval difficulty increasing account for a lot of this. As I say it will be interesting to see how next weeks sales figures go.

MacronvFrugals

Smouse156 wrote: »

Dropped from 725k (165k drop)

Check out this property I found using Daft: https://www.daft.ie/12116186

I guess with the collapse of rental demand, no justification for high apartment prices.

It’s also ultra annoying those websites do not show the price drops, just re-list at a lower price

TIP: go onto twitter and search the address, any price changes over the last 10 years will be recorded by the myhome.ie bot account

MacronvFrugals

Augeo wrote: »

I just pointed out plenty ftb people queued in 2007 ...... After you stated something about those queuing were doing so for their 3rd & 4th house which is largely untrue.

What your saying is largely untrue unless BOI were an outlier in 2007, something i doubt.

More BTLs than FTBs is a pretty crazy situation though all the same, asleep at the wheel regulation.