Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Thanks Hub i thought the cellular to fill gaps was still on the table, are they going with fibre>copper to the last mile?

I don't think there will be any copper involved - that's what fibre to the cabinet was and it was a mistake that won't be repeated. The NBP specs state:

Passive Access Wholesale Products
(1)Duct Access Product;
(2)Pole Access Product;
(3)Unbundled Fibre Access Product;
(4)DarkFibre Product; and
(5)Radio Tower and Mast Access Product

file:///Users/anon/Downloads/76781_d66386ad-2bb7-4bca-86de-61c2a763d5d1.pdf

Under the National Broadband Plan (NBP) Contract, National Broadband Ireland (NBI) will roll out a high speed and future proofed broadband network within the State Intervention Area and will operate and manage this network over the next 25 years.

https://www.gov.ie/en/publication/16717-national-broadband-plan-contract/

It's fibre from here on out, as copper is not future proof. The fibre coming into my house can go to at least 20 GBps by changing the electronics at both ends.

As it's just not practical to take fibre to sparsely scattered and remote houses, those may well have to be serviced via 5G and such, but it's not compromising.

MacronvFrugals

[/QUOTE]As it's just not practical to take fibre to sparsely scattered and remote houses, those may well have to be serviced via 5G and such, but it's not compromising.[/QUOTE]

The compromising part remains to be seen in fairness, as the users rack up i can see issues arising.

Tea drinker

smurgen wrote: »

I think demand is about to collapse. The WFH/ relocation of workers is being looked at by multinationals. They are looking at the tax implications of this with the accounting and tax firms currently.

https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1282302449387286528?s=19

This type of issue around tax is well understood by MNC's at least it used to be. I'd expect this is no surprise.

The surprise can be if the companies see remote working as workable long term, and feel they can do the same or similar quality from another much more remote location then the jobs and tax goes completely. Maybe even the brass plaque too

cnocbui

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

As it's just not practical to take fibre to sparsely scattered and remote houses, those may well have to be serviced via 5G and such, but it's not compromising.

The compromising part remains to be seen in fairness, as the users rack up i can see issues arising.

If your nearest neighbour is 1km away and you want 1GBps or greater internet speeds, my suggestion is to move to where you can get such speeds.

Timing belt

Tea drinker wrote: »

This type of issue around tax is well understood by MNC's at least it used to be. I'd expect this is no surprise.

The surprise can be if the companies see remote working as workable long term, and feel they can do the same or similar quality from another much more remote location then the jobs and tax goes completely. Maybe even the brass plaque too

WFH model was here well before covid as was outsourcing work to cheaper labour markets so don’t see it changing the dynamic that much with the exception of employees looking for the opportunity to WFH for childcare & transport costs etc.

Yes more will WFH and there will be less demand for housing in Dublin as a result but there is still a shortage of supply so will barely move the dial on house prices however may lower rents or at least reduce the increases.

Tea drinker

Timing belt wrote: »

WFH model was here well before covid as was outsourcing work to cheaper labour markets so don’t see it changing the dynamic that much with the exception of employees looking for the opportunity to WFH for childcare & transport costs etc.

Yes more will WFH and there will be less demand for housing in Dublin as a result but there is still a shortage of supply so will barely move the dial on house prices however may lower rents or at least reduce the increases.

I know people in a business with some remote working were previously refused WFH by HR. It's a completely different approach now with en masse WFH compared to occassional 1 day a month or some convenient - 3 days from home. I don't think the company I'm in are "there yet" for making a "best shoring" type decision but this is definitely going to focus some minds.
It's a facor. The other thing is people in the likes of Dublin probably suffered more than their country cousins during lockdown, and the lesson there is those that can will bail in your scenario above or others.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

This is a very important point.

Various government policies and actions/inactions have incentivized property owners to keep them vacant (or disincentivised them from having them occupied).

This in turn creates shortages and pushes up rents, forcing the government into long term leases at high rents with landlords - thereby creating a floor on rents.

This is will continue until the government recognizes that their policies are causing the vacancies, thus the shortage, thus the rent increases.

As you say, they need to cop the hell on. But will they?!

I think the major problem is our public and civil servants charged with advising, implementing and executing policy it’s not their money, there is no accountability and they don’t care. Its easier for them to pay what is asked, tick a box and move on.

Timing belt

Tea drinker wrote: »

I know people in a business with some remote working were previously refused WFH by HR. It's a completely different approach now with en masse WFH compared to occassional 1 day a month or some convenient - 3 days from home. I don't think the company I'm in are "there yet" for making a "best shoring" type decision but this is definitely going to focus some minds.
It's a facor. The other thing is people in the likes of Dublin probably suffered more than their country cousins during lockdown, and the lesson there is those that can will bail in your scenario above or others.

It will focus minds your right because there is big savings to a company with a WFH policy even if it is 2 days a week as a lot of companies have been doing in London for the past 5 years. but it won’t impact house prices as most of the people that will benefit from such a policy will be renting and all that will happen is rents will taper off.

Even if people sold there houses and moved down the country there is sufficient demand for good quality homes in Dublin that it won’t impact house prices.

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Can you link to what you were reading, I'd be interested to read it as well, so I can understand it better?

And I've always piped on about 6% being the long term average vacancy rate in a functioning market!

http://airo.maynoothuniversity.ie/news/breakdown-housing-vacancy-figures-ireland

What is interesting is the 4000 vacant units in Dublin City giving a 7.7% vacancy rate.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

You talk about 290bn of lending and property. The majority of it loan books that the funds bought cheap and as long as the majority repayment are made the fund makes money. I would speculate that the housing stock they purchased was minimal. Yes you have reit’s and private equity funds buying stock for the rental income but these are a very different business model.

In 2008, AIB, BOI and Anglo had loans related to property and construction of c. €157 billion (not including mortgages).

I think we can probably assume that most of the €200 billion in property and business loans purchased by the international investment funds between 2012 and 2016 were related to property. The banks and NAMA weren’t selling many of their non property related performing loans.

Link here: https://www.tcd.ie/Economics/assets/pdf/MScEPS/Money%20and%20Banking/moneynamking%20week12.pdf

neutral guy

Was looking at rent prices in County Louth in our town last night.Rent prices went down at about 25 per cent per last couple weeks and they does not look like the property was AirBnB property before.Before 1 bedroom in house cost at average 500 per month now around 350/400 in 2/3 bedroom house.The amount of supply remain the same.

Graham

Mod Note

Discussion of vacant properties moved here:

linky

neutral guy

Springy Turf wrote: »

Undated article that badly summarises a freely available ESRI report from may - not news.

If you have based any of your own opinions on sources like “dowlingfinancial” then god help you.


ESRI article:
https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/WP661_0.pdf

God help you my friend !
This time not that old and not a ESRI
And even NOT MY WORDS :

Yet many of those in middle-class jobs working from home may find themselves unemployed next spring, if a cash-strapped State goes ahead with its plan to unwind the wage subsidy scheme that has kept some of them from redundancy. That could result in another slump.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/there-may-be-trouble-ahead-for-the-housing-market-1.4368797

And you same as other will say again : This is your fantasies ! Nothing gona happen ! Because is no supply !

neutral guy

You are right guys !
There will be no supply and huge demand !
The buyers will have problems with cash supply which will be on huge demand !

Mad_maxx

im planning to buy another house in the next few months with the intention of leasing to the local authority for twenty years

i focus on houses in less desirable areas but which are structurally sound and require little investment , these houses have less far to fall in my opinion

neutral guy

Mad_maxx wrote: »

im planning to buy another house in the next few months with the intention of leasing to the local authority for twenty years

i focus on houses in less desirable areas but which are structurally sound and require little investment , these houses have l ess far to fall in my opinion

Be careful about property taxation coming which I think will be mad heavy and will push many people away from similar business

Mic 1972

neutral guy wrote: »

You are right guys !
There will be no supply and huge demand !
The buyers will have problems with cash supply which will be on huge demand !

People have cash, a lot of investors are coming forward with cash in the hands
Not everyone needs a mortage

neutral guy

Mic 1972 wrote: »

People have cash, a lot of investors are coming forward with cash in the hands
Not everyone needs a mortage

Any proper investor with cash will not buy any property today/tomorrow/in next 12 months.Today we have unique opportunities invest cash to a lot better places than property.Here I talking about those who has brain and cash.
People who was saving money for property since last recession has enough brains not buy property even if property will cost 20 per cent less !
The other part who has cash will have buy food because will lose jobs/pay for kids education/own bills/etc !
Please stop dreaming about somebody will buy property ! Which also will be heavily taxed ( like property for rent ) !

cubatahavana

neutral guy wrote: »

Any proper investor with cash will not buy any property today/tomorrow/in next 12 months.Today we have unique opportunities invest cash to a lot better places than property.Here I talking about those who has brain and cash.
People who was saving money for property since last recession has enough brains not buy property even if property will cost 20 per cent less !
The other part who has cash will have buy food because will lose jobs/pay for kids education/own bills/etc !
Please stop dreaming about somebody will buy property ! Which also will be heavily taxed ( like property for rent ) !

So no one is buying other than idiots, right? I’m tired of your posts. You’re the smartest guy here, it seems. You’ve been around in Ireland at least since the last recession and after living here for more than 12 years, you cannot write one proper sentence.

Mad_maxx

cubatahavana wrote: »

So no one is buying other than idiots, right? I’m tired of your posts. You’re the smartest guy here, it seems. You’ve been around in Ireland at least since the last recession and after living here for more than 12 years, you cannot write one proper sentence.

assumed he was polish ?

Mic 1972

neutral guy wrote: »

Any proper investor with cash will not buy any property today/tomorrow/in next 12 months.Today we have unique opportunities invest cash to a lot better places than property.Here I talking about those who has brain and cash.
People who was saving money for property since last recession has enough brains not buy property even if property will cost 20 per cent less !
The other part who has cash will have buy food because will lose jobs/pay for kids education/own bills/etc !
Please stop dreaming about somebody will buy property ! Which also will be heavily taxed ( like property for rent ) !

Investors are still buying properties, they have been doing it all year despite signs of the incoming recessions where already there
Whatever your opinions are, they have the cash and they are buying properties

neutral guy

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Investors are still buying properties, they have been doing it all year despite signs of the incoming recessions where already there
Whatever your opinions are, they have the cash and they are buying properties

I will better buy Ryanair or Norvegian or other shares than buy property for rent to local autorities
When hotels renting rooms for price of appartments in Dublin city centre.

Vieira82

neutral guy wrote: »

Any proper investor with cash will not buy any property today/tomorrow/in next 12 months.Today we have unique opportunities invest cash to a lot better places than property.Here I talking about those who has brain and cash.
People who was saving money for property since last recession has enough brains not buy property even if property will cost 20 per cent less !
The other part who has cash will have buy food because will lose jobs/pay for kids education/own bills/etc !
Please stop dreaming about somebody will buy property ! Which also will be heavily taxed ( like property for rent ) !

Blackstone probably the biggest landlord in the world right now has billions of dollars waiting to be used to buy property. Anyone that will get desperate and sell at a lower price will be eaten by investors like Blackstone and there's loads of them. They literally are hoarding houses and I am sure, artifically infating the market atm.

Mic 1972

neutral guy wrote: »

I will better buy Ryanair or Norvegian or other shares than buy property for rent to local autorities

investors might do that too, they have cash
I'm not saying that it's smart to buy properties in this moment, in fact i was questioning the stability of the property market at the early stages of the pandemic, because it was clear from the beginning that this would have had an economic impact.
But the reality is that the property market hasn't shown any signs of decline.

neutral guy

Vieira82 wrote: »

Blackstone probably the biggest landlord in the world right now has billions of dollars waiting to be used to buy property. Anyone that will get desperate and sell at a lower price will be eaten by investors like Blackstone and there's loads of them. They literally are hoarding houses and I am sure, artifically infating the market atm.

Waren Buffet did not rush buy property in Ireland yet.Dont forget about ETF and other popular tools for investment and how Great Depression started in USA.It is all not started yet and property in Ireland not the main sector for investment at all just because it overpriced already !

neutral guy

Mic 1972 wrote: »

investors might do that too, they have cash
I'm not saying that it's smart to buy properties in this moment, in fact i was questioning the stability of the property market at the early stages of the pandemic, because it was clear from the beginning that this would have had an economic impact.
But the reality is that the property market hasn't shown any signs of decline.

Did not show for who !? For you !? Media are full of reports about falling prices and bad future for property in Ireland
The rent prices in my town 25 per cent down already ! The next step will be property price it self !

Mic 1972

neutral guy wrote: »

Did not show for who !? For you !? Media are full of reports about falling prices and bad future for property in Ireland
The rent prices in my town 25 per cent down already ! The next step will be property price it self !

The reports are depicting an opposite scene to what you describe

neutral guy

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The reports are depicting an opposite scene to what you describe

Did not see any possitive reports or reports without words Price Crash in last 6 months on any source of media in Ireland.
Mortgage holidays ended this week.The real show will start next month.

Balluba

Mic 1972 wrote: »

The reports are depicting an opposite scene to what you describe

Mic please post a link to a credible source that suggests that house prices and rents in Ireland will increase

Mic 1972

neutral guy wrote: »

Did not see any possitive reports or reports without words Price Crash in last 6 months on any source of media in Ireland.
Mortgage holidays ended this week.The real show will start next month.

I only look at data. Again, so far, no signs of decline.
Q4 will be slow as usual, so no surprise when we see the final figures for Q4 showing a decline. That happens a lot.
Whatever happens next year nobody know. Your prediction are probably based on your capacity to invest, you are not accounting for investors who have a lot more cash than you