Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Cyrus

neutral guy wrote: »

Did not see any possitive reports or reports without words Price Crash in last 6 months on any source of media in Ireland.
Mortgage holidays ended this week.The real show will start next month.

Cool

And when that doesn’t happen it will be wait til January etc etc

One of you will eventually be right sometime

Mic 1972

Balluba wrote: »

Mic please post a link to a credible source that suggests that house prices and rents in Ireland will increase

There is no report showing what will happen.
Reports only shows what has happened so far.


MyHome has a quarterly report on asking prices, so does Daft
I also look at these https://sites.google.com/view/prettycharts

Mic 1972

Cyrus wrote: »

Cool

And when that doesn’t happen it will be wait til January etc etc

One of you will eventually be right sometime

I make no predictions for next year. I'm just pointing out the reality of what has happened up until now as opposite to what some people expected

neutral guy

Cyrus wrote: »

Cool

And when that doesn’t happen it will be wait til January etc etc

One of you will eventually be right sometime

If you look on number of financial crashes which happened in last number of years you will find that recession started already.Every single crash been flooded by central banks money without which you could enjoy recession today.So everybody telling about recession coming was right every single time.The people telling same things as you has no understanding what happening on financial markets and were Ireland now
2017 markets crash
2018 markets crash
2019 markets crash
2020 markets crash
All times they was flooded by centrals money.

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

If you look on number of financial crashes which happened in last number of years you will find that recession started already.Every single crash been flooded by central banks money without which you could enjoy recession today.So everybody telling about recession comming was right every single time.The people telling same things as you has no understanding what happening on financial markets and were Ireland now

Can I ask why you take so much enjoyment out of people losing their jobs and possibly their homes? I understand you are happy because you can buy a derelict shack in Louth but the exclamation marks and smiley faces are in pretty bad taste.

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

Can I ask why you take so much enjoyment out of people losing their jobs and possibly their homes? I understand you are happy because you can buy a derelict shack in Louth but the exclamation marks and smiley faces are in pretty bad taste.

Why I am happy !?
Because people does not inderstand that they can not buy happiness taking mortgage for it !
You could only get happy life when you have no debt !
But if you want get happy life without debt you have work hard and drive 15 years old car !
If you cant earn money for food why you buy house taking mortgage and buy brand new car taking loan for it !?
And after drive it with arogant smile on face with empty pockets !? And debt on your Visa card !?
If they can not pay them bills they must be thrown from houses and them cars because they only make life hard for those who earn and save and can pay the bills!

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

Why I am happy !?
Because people does not inderstand that they can not buy happiness taking mortgage for it !
You could only get happy life when you have no debt !
But if you want get happy life without debt you have work hard and drive 15 years old car !
If you cant earn money for food why you buy house taking mortgage and buy brand new car taking loan for it !?
And after drive it with arogant smile on face with empty pockets !? And debt on your Visa card !?

Ah ok. I get it now. That old green eyed monster. Will leave you to it.

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

Ah ok. I get it now. That old green eyed monster. Will leave you to it.

I will work tomorrow when some people on mortgage arears for last 5 years will drink beer at home and enjoy life not paying mortgage.But I am pretty sure this will be ended next year.

Graham

neutral guy wrote: »

I am happy !?

Mod Note

or trolling. Knock it off.

KnowingWind

While I agree property prices will drop.

This neutral_guy chap really ruins conversation. Hard to read his posts and is very bitter about something.

neutral guy

If you buy property for your self it is does not matter when you buy it the matter is when you will sell it
If you buy property as investment today is the worse time buy it.
Property for rent is not investment if you not gona build your property portfolio using money of other investors putting them not your money under risk.
Buying property taking mortgage for it is not investment.Too many risks.
If you have no understanding about investment simply not invest.
Never do what other do too much competition and risks.Create your own way.

Balluba

KnowingWind wrote: »

While I agree property prices will drop.

This neutral_guy chap really ruins conversation. Hard to read his posts and is very bitter about something.

Maybe more of us should feel bitter about the thousands of people who have made no effort to pay their mortgage over the past decade.

KnowingWind

Balluba wrote: »

Maybe more of us should feel bitter about the thousands of people who have made no effort to pay their mortgage over the past decade.

What you are experiencing is jealousy not bitterness.

If I could get away with it, Id pay no taxes and take free money from the government.

Focus your anger towards the governments who enable this so as to prop up assets and their own wealth.

Bubbaclaus

KnowingWind wrote: »

While I agree property prices will drop.

This neutral_guy chap really ruins conversation. Hard to read his posts and is very bitter about something.

He is bitter about the fact he has to work 2 jobs (one where he commits tax fraud against the Irish taxpayer) so he can buy a shack in Louth of all places.

Bubbaclaus

People saving a massive 35% of their income on average during the lockdown.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1002/1169007-cso-savings-ratio/

Plenty people used it as an opportunity to accelerate their house deposit savings. I know of two separate couples who built up enough savings since March that they have now saved enough and gone sale agreed nearly a year earlier than they had planned.

neutral guy

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

People saving a massive 35% of their income on average during the lockdown.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1002/1169007-cso-savings-ratio/

Plenty people used it as an opportunity to accelerate their house deposit savings. I know of two separate couples who built up enough savings since March that they have now saved enough and gone sale agreed nearly a year earlier than they had planned.

Most people did not have ANY incomes except incomes from government Covid payment!

Graham

neutral guy wrote: »

Most people did not have ANY incomes except incomes from government Covid payment!

some highlights from the article:

The CSO said the gross saving ratio rose to 35.4% in the three months from April to June from 17.2% in the first quarter.

people's seasonally adjusted gross disposable income was close to where it was in the first quarter

consumer spending decreased very sharply

you should read it.

Bubbaclaus

Graham wrote: »

some highlights from the article:







you should read it.

He won't bother. Factual data isnt important to him, only his personal anecdotes.

neutral guy

Graham wrote: »

some highlights from the article:







you should read it.

No problem !

They could spend them savings once cars prices will be rise up to 10k for example !

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/transport-and-tourism/new-car-prices-could-rise-by-up-to-10-000-if-taxes-increase-in-budget-1.4365776

Every single penny got from government will have to be paid back with interest on top ! What also will affect property prices no bother !

There will be so huge mess on renting market soon that people who was making money on it will run from there as antz from burning forest ! Even if they will lucky have savings ! So there will be no problem with supply at all same as no problem with supply on renting market at the moment about what most people could only dreaming about ! And about what many people was saying that this NEVER GONNA HAPPEN ! And rents will be only UP forever !

Pelezico

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Does any of this guys posts make sense to anyone else? Something about cars and forest fires, somehow related to property? Absolutely mental.

I guess he is saying that there has been massive wealth destruction and a lot of people have been saved by state intervention which has resulted in an alarming increase in in government indebtedness. This will have to be repaid.

What I dont understand is how neutral can be routinely insulted here.

TheSheriff

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

People saving a massive 35% of their income on average during the lockdown.

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1002/1169007-cso-savings-ratio/

Plenty people used it as an opportunity to accelerate their house deposit savings. I know of two separate couples who built up enough savings since March that they have now saved enough and gone sale agreed nearly a year earlier than they had planned.

I do know of two friends who have had their weddings cancelled and who have chosen to purchase a home instead with the money that was meant for the wedding.

I do think Covid has really focused alot of people, anyone I know who was in an apartment now wants out.... be that to a rental house or a home to purchase.

neutral guy

Ireland will borrow €30 billion this year to fight coronavirus, and at least another €9 billion next year, probably far more.

Housing crisis will become a monster unless the State kills it now

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/housing-crisis-will-become-a-monster-unless-the-state-kills-it-now-1.4369551

I would like remind everybody that 2009 mess cost government 42 billions

Covid mess cost same already just trough last 6 months with more on top coming

I dont have any illusions about property market will continue it business as usual in 2020 same as 2021

Bubbaclaus

neutral guy wrote: »

Ireland will borrow €30 billion this year to fight coronavirus, and at least another €9 billion next year, probably far more.

I would like remind everybody that 2009 mess cost government 42 billions

Covid mess cost same already just trough last 6 months with more on top coming

I dont have any illusions about property market will continue it business as usual in 2020 same as 2021

None of the above figures are factually accurate. You're as bad as Trump with your facts.

Pelezico

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

None of the above figures are factually accurate. You're as bad as Trump with your facts.

Agreed ..his numbers may be light. Massive structural deficit and government debt 125% of GDP.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/walking-a-fine-line-on-budget-strategy-1.4354769%3Fmode%3Damp&ved=2ahUKEwilnJjRsZvsAhVQTBUIHTfeAy4QFjABegQIGRAJ&usg=AOvVaw2A5uKV9xSKaSqmF0Vol1Qx&ampcf=1

Graham

Mod Note

quit the personal digs. Attack the post not the poster.

Timing belt

Pelezico wrote: »

Agreed ..he may be light. Massive structural deficit and government debt 125% of GDP.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/walking-a-fine-line-on-budget-strategy-1.4354769%3Fmode%3Damp&ved=2ahUKEwilnJjRsZvsAhVQTBUIHTfeAy4QFjABegQIGRAJ&usg=AOvVaw2A5uKV9xSKaSqmF0Vol1Qx&ampcf=1

As we are talking about facts lets be clear the article talks about 125% of GNI and not GDP.

The country will grow in GDP terms next year thanks to MNC's but the real economy (Excluding multinationals) will not be as well off.

Pelezico

So there has been a massive transfer of private debt to sovereign debt. Many have saved money but the sovereign debt remains as a major burden.

Also, some consumers are in considerable crisis. 60k mortgages not being serviced, unpaid rent and landlords being squeezed.

Quite a toxic mix.

But some like my son and GF have saved serious coin in six months.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

some highlights from the article: you should read it.

673,000 people in Ireland are over 65. Pensioners are the primary group who have been forced into saving, so I would believe the vast majority of the increased savings belong to this group.

If potential home buyers were saving €200 per week from WFH. Multiply by 26 Weeks = €5,200 or €10,400 a year or c.3% of the cost of a €350k house in Dublin. Such increased savings would hardly move the dial on house prices and especially as this group would probably already be in the market to buy a home.

Most potential FTB’s would also have been renting so that just brings their previously rented property back into the market if they do buy, so such purchases would add very little to the demand side or take away from the supply side of the equation.

Given that transaction levels were down c. 50% in Q2 and c. 40% in Q3, the bigger question is why aren’t these people buying? Unless the demand side of the equation isn’t as big as many believe.

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

Pensioners are the primary group who have been forced into saving

Was that revealed in the CSO study?

cnocbui

neutral guy wrote: »

Ireland will borrow €30 billion this year to fight coronavirus, and at least another €9 billion next year, probably far more.

Housing crisis will become a monster unless the State kills it now

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/housing-crisis-will-become-a-monster-unless-the-state-kills-it-now-1.4369551

I would like remind everybody that 2009 mess cost government 42 billions

Covid mess cost same already just trough last 6 months with more on top coming

I dont have any illusions about property market will continue it business as usual in 2020 same as 2021

I'd be more worried about the €10 Billion a year in government debt servicing costs, which is 16.5% of 2019 revenue.