Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PommieBast

Yara Rich Camouflage wrote: »

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1286307924063727616

What good will come of this? Will this not just drive prices up?

How many FTB-ers (or any buyers for that matter) can actually get hold of a new-build?

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

I’d say it’s thinking that the votes from the property investing and home owning cohorts are more valuable than those of the homeless and renting class.

Business as usual in other words.

But a simple understanding of demographics will tell you that the long term mathematics of this strategy are not favorable.

And ultimately we’ll end up with a SF government propped up by PBP. This is unlikely to end well.

Indeed, business as usual it seems indeed.

Property must be propped up at all cost.

BEdS_83

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Or the 300k new house now costs 330k.

way more likely.

brisan

schmittel wrote: »

I’d say it’s thinking that the votes from the property investing and home owning cohorts are more valuable than those of the homeless and renting class.

Business as usual in other words.

But a simple understanding of demographics will tell you that the long term mathematics of this strategy are not favorable.

And ultimately we’ll end up with a SF government propped up by PBP. This is unlikely to end well.

Agree
SF have not gone away and if they had judged the mood properly at the last election they could have had 10-15 more seats and now be in government.
The housing crisis has not gone away either.
If FF-FG-Greens do no get their act together and make a serious dent in the housing crisis then SF will romp home next time
Many ways out of it but is the political will there to do it and will the builders co operate.
Hotel and commercial builds will grind to a halt once started builds are finished leaving a plentiful workforce.
Plenty of Government and Private land inside the M50 ring.
Get builders to tender to build on state land and the state provide the infrastructure.
Sell at a little above cost
Rinse and repeat.
However it might expose builders true profits and they may not engage
Little or no chance of cost overruns on house building

hometruths

Smouse156 wrote: »

Actually all it does is help demand in one particular segment of the market! Builders and FTBs. It helps the rent slaves break their chains and become home owners so bad for landlords as well. Builders making more cash will help them increase output further increasing supply which depresses prices.

This is the thinking of the Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown second house sellers. They wondered why the prices dropped 7% in 2019 when the whole market only fell 1%. The average price was held up by the new builds coming on stream but it hurt second hand expensive houses

The last time DLR dropped hard relative to other areas was nothing to do with new builds vs expensive second houses.

It was a leading indicator of a massive correction.

The market is a whole, and everything that happens within it, like a butterfly flapping its wings, has some effect on that whole.

Akesh

PommieBast wrote: »

How many FTB-ers (or any buyers for that matter) can actually get hold of a new-build?

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

As people have said repeatedly, the government needs to work on affordability and to do that they need to start building affordable properties.

You are better off quitting your job, having 10 kids and forcing the council to look after you. It's a joke of a situation and I feel sorry for people trapped or those that will be saving 6-7 years for a deposit to buy a house so they can start a family.

awec

schmittel wrote: »

I’d say it’s thinking that the votes from the property investing and home owning cohorts are more valuable than those of the homeless and renting class.

Business as usual in other words.

But a simple understanding of demographics will tell you that the long term mathematics of this strategy are not favorable.

And ultimately we’ll end up with a SF government propped up by PBP. This is unlikely to end well.

HTB, ever since it was invented, was always about putting money in developer's pockets. It was to drive up supply by ensuring that developers could get a reasonable return on their outlays. The whole point was to raise prices, and then give buyers the money to offset this.

It was done in the manner it is for political reasons, it was better optics to give it to developers via buyers rather than give them tax breaks directly.

The veneer on HTB and it's true purpose has always been remarkably thin, so it would be surprising if people are only now realising what the point of it was.

Cyrus

Akesh wrote: »

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

As people have said repeatedly, the government needs to work on affordability and to do that they need to start building affordable properties.

You are better off quitting your job, having 10 kids and forcing the council to look after you. It's a joke of a situation and I feel sorry for people trapped or those that will be saving 6-7 years for a deposit to buy a house so they can start a family.

A couple on 60k are low earners in Dublin what do you think they should be able to buy?

Cantstandsya

Cyrus wrote: »

A couple on 60k are low earners in Dublin what do you think they should be able to buy?

A home.

Chesty08

Does the help to buy extension apply to Self Build?

I have my application in with revenue & it has been accepted (pre Covid)

I am signing off on mortgage & building contract this week.

Will I get extension or where would I find out?

Akesh

Cyrus wrote: »

A couple on 60k are low earners in Dublin what do you think they should be able to buy?

Are low earners not entitled to their own home? Nice attitude that.

Thierry12

Akesh wrote: »

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

As people have said repeatedly, the government needs to work on affordability and to do that they need to start building affordable properties.

You are better off quitting your job, having 10 kids and forcing the council to look after you. It's a joke of a situation and I feel sorry for people trapped or those that will be saving 6-7 years for a deposit to buy a house so they can start a family.

Legislation makes it's impossible to build affordable houses here

In Europe these type wooden frame houses are common and far far cheaper to build

http://prefabhome.eu/en/projects/open/ITALIA-S.F.

We are stuck in the stone age here, with concrete and brick

mariaalice

Cyrus wrote: »

A couple on 60k are low earners in Dublin what do you think they should be able to buy?

https://selfbuild.ie/news/affordable-serviced-sites-to-be-made-available-to-self-builders/

That is what the couple on 60k should be getting or a house from a housing cooperative.

https://www.rte.ie/archives/exhibitions/894-house-and-home/985809-housing-cooperatives/. I know it is from 1973 but that is what needs to be done now.

Or they should be getting social housing, a joint income of 60k is a very low income to support a mortgage in Dublin.

Iceman29

when they say the HTB to be extended, what exactlt does that mean?
Was it not extended until 2021 at last years budget anyway??

Lia_lia

Akesh wrote: »

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

As people have said repeatedly, the government needs to work on affordability and to do that they need to start building affordable properties.

You are better off quitting your job, having 10 kids and forcing the council to look after you. It's a joke of a situation and I feel sorry for people trapped or those that will be saving 6-7 years for a deposit to buy a house so they can start a family.

We have no help from Mammy or Daddy or inheritance and have just put a deposit down on a new build. Just years of saving and thankfully have well paid jobs. Also in Cork City so houses are a lot cheaper but not that cheap by any means!

hometruths

awec wrote: »

HTB, ever since it was invented, was always about putting money in developer's pockets. It was to drive up supply by ensuring that developers could get a reasonable return on their outlays. The whole point was to raise prices, and then give buyers the money to offset this.

It was done in the manner it is for political reasons, it was better optics to give it to developers via buyers rather than give them tax breaks directly.

The veneer on HTB and it's true purpose has always been remarkably thin, so it would be surprising if people are only now realising what the point of it was.

I think you might be overestimating the intelligence of many people. There are plenty of people who think it's a great boost to help FTBs and sure this time they have the added bonus of a VAT decrease too.

Cyrus wrote: »

so there is an increased FTB grant and the decrease in vat will bring prices down

yet you arent happy?

BEdS_83

schmittel wrote: »

I think you might be overestimating the intelligence of many people. There are plenty of people who think it's a great boost to help FTBs and sure this time they have the added bonus of a VAT decrease too.

the 21% VAT is in relation to products not houses, I don't think that will affect the final price, even if it does, it won't reflect the final price to the consumers.
if I understood it correctly.

Cyrus

Cantstandsya wrote: »

A home.

And they can buy one

One bed apartment is that not a home ?

Cyrus

Akesh wrote: »

Are low earners not entitled to their own home? Nice attitude that.

I asked a question I didn’t make a statement you have misunderstood

PommieBast

Akesh wrote: »

Very few without help from mammy and daddy or an inheritance. For example a couple on 60k could never get a mortgage on a new build in Dublin unless it's a small apartment.

Few new-builds seem to be on the open-market for anyone at all. Had been looking at some of the new stock in my parents' area and it is a world of difference.

BEdS_83

cache from google
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1X1V66hC-8fIddTmxLTGHl_UGV0Wut-li/view?usp=sharing

new price
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1r35GTAHGzA8Y2T2MdWDtOq0Ep_TJtOea/view?usp=sharing

was wondering why the new price but I guess the extra 10k would explain that..

brisan

BEdS_83 wrote: »

cache from google
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1X1V66hC-8fIddTmxLTGHl_UGV0Wut-li/view?usp=sharing

new price
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1r35GTAHGzA8Y2T2MdWDtOq0Ep_TJtOea/view?usp=sharing

was wondering why the new price but I guess the extra 10k would explain that..

Did not take long did it

Dylan94

BEdS_83 wrote: »

cache from google
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1X1V66hC-8fIddTmxLTGHl_UGV0Wut-li/view?usp=sharing

new price
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1r35GTAHGzA8Y2T2MdWDtOq0Ep_TJtOea/view?usp=sharing

was wondering why the new price but I guess the extra 10k would explain that..

And thats for the exact same house? Not a bigger size or anything?

brisan

Dylan94 wrote: »

And thats for the exact same house? Not a bigger size or anything?

they should be pulled up on it in the Dail

BEdS_83

Dylan94 wrote: »

And thats for the exact same house? Not a bigger size or anything?

Same link, the only difference was the new price, but Of course if you ask they will say the 397 is gone and now they only have 405

lir6777

BEdS_83 wrote: »

cache from google
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1X1V66hC-8fIddTmxLTGHl_UGV0Wut-li/view?usp=sharing

new price
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1r35GTAHGzA8Y2T2MdWDtOq0Ep_TJtOea/view?usp=sharing

was wondering why the new price but I guess the extra 10k would explain that..

Just saw similar on a new development, my home.ie shows the price of one type of house went up by just over 5% just yesterday- what a coincidence ey! It's so frustrating to see, it really will be the developers who pocket the benefit it seems

Dylan94

BEdS_83 wrote: »

Same link, the only difference was the new price, but Of course if you ask they will say the 397 is gone and now they only have 405

It says on myhome.ie that it hasn't been updated since the 20th. Kinda strange.

Akesh

Cyrus wrote: »

I asked a question I didn’t make a statement you have misunderstood

What about a couple renting with 1 child. Would you think a one bed apartment is feasible there? Probably can't save enough for a deposit with rent as it is.

A better strategy would be to build affordable houses rather than just handing money over to developers, driving up the prices of new builds but some people just don't have the capacity to think long term.

The obsession with concrete is a another disaster.

Smouse156

schmittel wrote: »

For years my property has been appreciating in a large part thanks to buyers flocking to all the new builds in the area. Long may they continue to flock at ever increasing prices.

The people buying new build houses in my area are not consciously ignoring my house in favour of a new build, but it’s just so far off their radar it might as well be in a different county.

However you’d need to be a serious half wit to consider that the confidence in their segment of the market does not have a positive impact on the confidence in my segment.

This holds true at a local, regional and national level to some extent.

Confidence in an area perhaps if it is accompanied by infrastructural improvements. Is sounds from what you are saying your house (you believe) is well out of the FTB sub 500k range and therefore not competing with new builds? But generally speaking at all levels new builds depress similar existing stock in all areas unless they bring serious infrastructure

Sarn

I’m sure some of them got wind of what was coming. Otherwise it seems strange, and coincidental, for prices on new builds to increase at the moment.