Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

hometruths

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Do you think it will sell @€;5.5 million?

Yes. (and I'm probably the most bearish poster here!)

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well good look to them whenever the current buyers do decide to sell again

you do realise that basically what you are saying is that any large development, regardless of location, that has its 10% social housing in it is going to become a predominantly social development,

thats utter nonsense and a very inefficent use of state funds.

Cyrus

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Do you think it will sell @€;5.5 million?

not sure, its a fine place, but all the space around it out there doesnt have the same value as other locations as there is no prospect to develop any of it, and most people spending over €5m will want extensive sea views.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

you do realise that basically what you are saying is that any large development, regardless of location, that has its 10% social housing in it is going to become a predominantly social development,

thats utter nonsense and a very inefficent use of state funds.

Inefficient us of funds, yes, but that hasn't stopped the state to date. I believe most of these purpose built build-to-rent developments will eventually all be primarily social housing.

While many people will say publicly it won't impact their buying/renting decisions. Privately, it will very definitely impact on their buying/renting decisions.

It's the same with the local opposition to co-living developments. Everyone knows they're not aimed at high wage multinational employees. They're quite obviously purposely designed as either refugee centres or homeless shelters. But nobody can say that publicly.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

not sure, its a fine place, but all the space around it out there doesnt have the same value as other locations as there is no prospect to develop any of it, and most people spending over €5m will want extensive sea views.

Space is worth a lot to people who value their privacy. If you are looking for built space and green space in Dublin, nothing comes close to this in the €5m+ bracket.

Re development potential, is there a blanket block on Killiney Hill or do you mean no prospect because of access restrictions etc?

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Space is worth a lot to people who value their privacy. If you are looking for built space and green space in Dublin, nothing comes close to this in the €5m+ bracket.

Re development potential, is there a blanket block on Killiney Hill or do you mean no prospect because of access restrictions etc?

to the best of my knowledge zero/zero planning is in place in the are and it prohibits breaking up period sites.

agree the grounds are superb and its a lovely location, but lack of sea views will rule most out, but maybe if it had them its a 7.5m house, who knows.

a lovely house on coliemore road has gone sale agreed (wasnt on that long) and was asking 3.5m, it was nothing like this obviously but reflects the premium the sea brings.

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

to the best of my knowledge zero/zero planning is in place in the are and it prohibits breaking up period sites.

agree the grounds are superb and its a lovely location, but lack of sea views will rule most out, but maybe if it had them its a 7.5m house, who knows.

a lovely house on coliemore road has gone sale agreed (wasnt on that long) and was asking 3.5m, it was nothing like this obviously but reflects the premium the sea brings.

The problem with Montebello - last time round was it the same price as this:https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/summerhill-marino-avenue-west-killiney-co-dublin/4420869

This has it all 700m2 period house + outbuildings + 5 acres AND amazing sea views. Hell of a package but it is 9 million.

If your budget is 5.5 million and you want sea views for your millions, you wouldn't even look at Montebello, it might as well be in Foxrock for all you care.

But if you're looking for 700m2 period house + outbuildings + acres of garden in Dublin for 5.5m, you won't do better than this.

I suspect the house on Coliemore road had much smaller garden/less privacy to go with the sea views.

Big money will buy you one or other, to buy both you need monster money!

MacronvFrugals

schmittel wrote: »

Big money will buy you one or other, to buy both you need monster money!

Out of curiosity do you know any examples of properties like this for sale?

hometruths

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Out of curiosity do you know any examples of properties like this for sale?

Just the one I linked in the post above. Though there are more on private market for sure.

OwlsZat

Geuze wrote: »

Property tax in USA, UK, France applies where owners own one house.

France has two taxes:

owner tax
occupiers tax

France also does a derelict site tax which Ireland and particularly Dublin is crying out for.

combat14

what's gonna happen with mortgage defaults if there is another proper lockdown and banks refuse to forbear like last time .. how long before market pain begins ?

Smouse156

schmittel wrote: »

Yes. (and I'm probably the most bearish poster here!)

I agree! It is a lovely estate! Fair play to the Irish Times, really working hard on the property porn!

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Just the one I linked in the post above. Though there are more on private market for sure.

yep agreed, gene murtagh bought one a few years ago that never appeared for sale

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/kingspan-boss-pays-7-5m-for-dalkey-home-in-quiet-deal-1.3634992

amazing place.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I suspect the house on Coliemore road had much smaller garden/less privacy to go with the sea views.

Big money will buy you one or other, to buy both you need monster money!

yes much more humble abode, lovely all the same

https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/dalkey/cnoc-aulinn-92-coliemore-road-dalkey-dublin-2570845/

Mad_maxx

combat14 wrote: »

what's gonna happen with mortgage defaults if there is another proper lockdown and banks refuse to forbear like last time .. how long before market pain begins ?

banks get bailed out again indirectly

Timing belt

combat14 wrote: »

what's gonna happen with mortgage defaults if there is another proper lockdown and banks refuse to forbear like last time .. how long before market pain begins ?

The last time there was a EU wide exemption this time around it does not exist so the banks will need to include any arrears in there Non-Performing Loan Books which will eat into there capital reserves. What was interesting was watching the banking stocks on Monday morning.... AIB held its ground probably because they have booked such a large provision and have a lot of capital as they were planning on paying a dividend. BOI share price started to drop... As soon as it was announced that there was no lockdown all bank share prices went up.

JimmyVik

nerrad01 wrote: »

its not essential to the people in power it seems, that is why i think sein fein are going to romp home at the next general election. Not managing to get into government was the best thing that could have happened them.

Im currently looking to buy and the number of properties out there is abysmal, talk about demoralising. Saving, working hard and being lucky enough to have the guts of 400k and then there's barely anything to buy and i am one of the lucky ones to be even in this position.

I cant see prices dropping at all, also exemptions will be back on from january so will just make things even more comptetitive for whats out there.

What a complete and utter failure FG/FF have been in housing

They must be sh!itting themselves now.
They are a party who cant afford to go into govt.
They would end up like the greens.

Idbatterim

nerrad01 wrote: »

its not essential to the people in power it seems, that is why i think sein fein are going to romp home at the next general election. Not managing to get into government was the best thing that could have happened them.

Im currently looking to buy and the number of properties out there is abysmal, talk about demoralising. Saving, working hard and being lucky enough to have the guts of 400k and then there's barely anything to buy and i am one of the lucky ones to be even in this position.

I cant see prices dropping at all, also exemptions will be back on from january so will just make things even more comptetitive for whats out there.

What a complete and utter failure FG/FF have been in housing

Its a total disgrace. Yet they land out free housing to others. No lpt, no management fee, as good as free rent. Its absolutely dispicable, maybe those in social houding paying appropriate rents, coukd be used to reduce taxes on new builds. Abolish stamp duty for ftb at least...

Id highly recommend watching realestate4ransom on youtube,

I agree with your pikmt about sf and housing. Youre not going to have people , masses of people, woth home purchaseva pipe dream, living at home, or payimg extortionate rents, forever. Hence sf surge last electiom and the housing situation is getting worse...

Idbatterim

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/pandemic-paradox-why-aren-t-house-prices-falling-1.4373795?mode=amp

Irish times article on why house prices not falling, you can listen to it on audio if not a subscriber...

neutral guy

Idbatterim wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/pandemic-paradox-why-aren-t-house-prices-falling-1.4373795?mode=amp

Irish times article on why house prices not falling, you can listen to it on audio if not a subscriber...

I don't believe a single word of it because media take orders from business groups .Many builders interested in quick sale of everything they has at maximal price so we will see only "price rising" in any media untill crash on second hand market before new build prices will go down.The first market will crash will be second hand.

Wanderer78

Idbatterim wrote:

Irish times article on why house prices not falling, you can listen to it on audio if not a subscriber...

...because there's still the availability of credit, to those that can afford it.....

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

I don't believe a single word of it because media take orders from business groups .Many builders interested in quick sale of everything they has at maximal price so we will see only "price rising" in any media untill crash on second hand market before new build prices will go down.The first market will crash will be second hand.

If you don’t believe anything the media says why do you often reference media articles in your posts in order to try and support whatever point you’re trying to make?

beauf

Idbatterim wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/personal-finance/pandemic-paradox-why-aren-t-house-prices-falling-1.4373795?mode=amp

Irish times article on why house prices not falling, you can listen to it on audio if not a subscriber...

How do you listen to it on audio?

PropQueries

Article in Irish Times today titled: ‘Working from home: Germany to set out legal rights within weeks’

"Germany is to press ahead with plans to give employees the legal right to work from home, the country’s labour minister has said, as the coronavirus pandemic prompts governments to consider major reforms in the world of work.".

But in Ireland... "No major Budget supports to encourage working from home, says Minister Michael McGrath as finding the right balance for our struggling cities will be a priority".

Looks like we are placing our bets on keeping the property market going and doesn't bode well for any real help for the FTB (outside of probably helping them to get deeper and deeper into debt) in the upcoming budget.

Germany WFH article: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/working-from-home-germany-to-set-out-legal-rights-within-weeks-1.4373710

Ireland WFH article: https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/no-major-budget-supports-to-encourage-working-from-home-says-minister-michael-mcgrath-as-finding-the-right-balance-for-our-struggling-cities-will-be-a-priority-39603519.html

Bass Reeves

PropQueries wrote: »

Article in Irish Times today titled: ‘Working from home: Germany to set out legal rights within weeks’

"Germany is to press ahead with plans to give employees the legal right to work from home, the country’s labour minister has said, as the coronavirus pandemic prompts governments to consider major reforms in the world of work.".

But in Ireland... "No major Budget supports to encourage working from home, says Minister Michael McGrath as finding the right balance for our struggling cities will be a priority".

Looks like we are placing our bets on keeping the property market going and doesn't bode well for any real help for the FTB (outside of probably helping them to get deeper and deeper into debt) in the upcoming budget.

Germany WFH article: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/working-from-home-germany-to-set-out-legal-rights-within-weeks-1.4373710

Ireland WFH article: https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/no-major-budget-supports-to-encourage-working-from-home-says-minister-michael-mcgrath-as-finding-the-right-balance-for-our-struggling-cities-will-be-a-priority-39603519.html

Why would you be government give a tax break for working from home. There is already relief there of you are working from home. Companies can claim back any expenses any associated with it. Most employees will be better off saving travel and accommodation cists as well if they can move to a cheaper location.

The Irish economy is different to the German one. We have a much higher percentage of jobs suitable for WFH. A lot of tech companies have already indicated that the expect that WFH for part of the he week anyway will be one the new norm. Finally a tax break only benefits better paid workers who will be winning anyway if they WFH.

Every time the government make a sensible decision it not to support the property market. At present if the Government said it was going to lay eggs somebody would say it was to support the property market.

The property market requires no support at present it doing quite well for all the doom saying predictions over the last 4-6 months

PropQueries

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Why would you be government give a tax break for working from home. There is already relief there of you are working from home. Companies can claim back any expenses any associated with it. Most employees will be better off saving travel and accommodation cists as well if they can move to a cheaper location.

The Irish economy is different to the German one. We have a much higher percentage of jobs suitable for WFH. A lot of tech companies have already indicated that the expect that WFH for part of the he week anyway will be one the new norm. Finally a tax break only benefits better paid workers who will be winning anyway if they WFH.

Every time the government make a sensible decision it not to support the property market. At present if the Government said it was going to lay eggs somebody would say it was to support the property market.

The property market requires no support at present it doing quite well for all the doom saying predictions over the last 4-6 months

It was more his statement that he wants to find "the right balance for our struggling cities" that grabbed my attention. That appears to be taking a side on the WFH debate.

By "right balance", I would presume he means "roadblocks to WFH" in order to protect the commercial property sector in the cities from bearing the full brunt of the WFH phenomenon. Who is the Government to decide on the "right balance" for both workers and companies in relation to WFH. Shouldn't that be more of a decision for between the employer and their employees?

It also places questions over their plans to implement their climate change target goals. WFH would have an obvious impact on traffic levels etc. into the cities every day. On the one side they're increasing taxes on our heating, petrol etc. to "protect the environment" and on the other they appear to want to continue encouraging us to keep commuting into the cities every day?

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

If you don’t believe anything the media says why do you often reference media articles in your posts in order to try and support whatever point you’re trying to make?

John has pub were Brian from Mayo work barmen.Brian live in rented property in Dublin.John closed his pub,Brian came back to Mayo to parents house were he spend PUP the property for rent in Dublin are empty the owner of the property has pay mortgage or dealing with bank.The people as Brian in Dublin 50 000 people who lost them jobs in hotels,bars,restoraunts,loundry,etc
Here is supply here is prices

cubatahavana

neutral guy wrote: »

John has pub were Brian from Mayo work barmen.Brian live in rented property in Dublin.John closed his pub,Brian came back to Mayo to parents house were he spend PUP the property for rent in Dublin are empty the owner of the property has pay mortgage or dealing with bank.The people as Brian in Dublin 50 000 people who lost them jobs in hotels,bars,restoraunts,loundry,etc
Here is supply here is prices

I just can't understand what you're typing

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

John has pub were Brian from Mayo work barmen.Brian live in rented property in Dublin.John closed his pub,Brian came back to Mayo to parents house were he spend PUP the property for rent in Dublin are empty the owner of the property has pay mortgage or dealing with bank.The people as Brian in Dublin 50 000 people who lost them jobs in hotels,bars,restoraunts,loundry,etc
Here is supply here is prices

Still don’t understand you and you haven’t explained to me why the media is lying especially when you quote articles to support your point. Waste of time

Cantstandsya

cubatahavana wrote: »

I just can't understand what you're typing

He is saying that when people from other parts of the country who work and rent in Dublin lose their jobs, there is a reasonable chance they will move home. This potentially leaves an empty rental and adds to supply.

For all the stick he gets on here, I quite enjoy neutral guy's style of making his points through hypothetical examples.