Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

MacronvFrugals

Cantstandsya wrote: »

He is saying that when people from other parts of the country who work and rent in Dublin lose their jobs, there is a reasonable chance they will move home. This potentially leaves an empty rental and adds to supply.

For all the stick he gets on here, I quite enjoy neutral guy's style of making his points through hypothetical examples.

No pun intended but he's one of the few on here that are somewhat neutral.

Balluba

Cantstandsya wrote: »

He is saying that when people from other parts of the country who work and rent in Dublin lose their jobs, there is a reasonable chance they will move home. This potentially leaves an empty rental and adds to supply.

For all the stick he gets on here, I quite enjoy neutral guy's style of making his points through hypothetical examples.

I like his posts too and I hope that he continues to contribute

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

Still don’t understand you and you haven’t explained to me why the media is lying especially when you quote articles to support your point. Waste of time

I did not mention other industries as aviation,travel,transport,etc.I think people like you does not really understand situation they are in.

timmyntc

PropQueries wrote: »

It was more his statement that he wants to find "the right balance for our struggling cities" that grabbed my attention. That appears to be taking a side on the WFH debate.

By "right balance", I would presume he means "roadblocks to WFH" in order to protect the commercial property sector in the cities from bearing the full brunt of the WFH phenomenon. Who is the Government to decide on the "right balance" for both workers and companies in relation to WFH. Shouldn't that be more of a decision for between the employer and their employees?

It also places questions over their plans to implement their climate change target goals. WFH would have an obvious impact on traffic levels etc. into the cities every day. On the one side they're increasing taxes on our heating, petrol etc. to "protect the environment" and on the other they appear to want to continue encouraging us to keep commuting into the cities every day?

Cities should be for living - not for working.
We need more apartments (of a decent size), and less commercial space. That's the only thing that can save Dublin (or other city centres) going forward.
WFH is here to stay

Hubertj

neutral guy wrote: »

I did not mention other industries as aviation,travel,transport,etc.I think people like you does not really understand situation they are in.

i do understand a lot better than you but you still haven't addressed my question. Of course the property market will be negatively impacted, thats beside the point.

I am questioning why you constantly state the media are lying but you then reference media articles to support whatever you're trying to say. So is the media telling the truth or lying?

MacronvFrugals

This is an interesting piece.

In Foxrock, Work Continues on Apartments after the Developer and Property Finance Company Close down

https://dublininquirer.com/2020/09/23/in-foxrock-work-continues-on-apartments-after-the-developer-and-property-finance-company-close-down

Hubertj

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

This is an interesting piece.

In Foxrock, Work Continues on Apartments after the Developer and Property Finance Company Close down

https://dublininquirer.com/2020/09/23/in-foxrock-work-continues-on-apartments-after-the-developer-and-property-finance-company-close-down

2 things here. 1. Never knew there was a “dublininquirer”.
2. Would developers not see how “well” other high end apartment developments have done the last couple of years? I presume they would be expecting big money for these?

Billythekid19

Still waiting patiently for the predicted crash in houses of 2020. This 3 bed semi-d in Cork sold in the last few days for nearly half a million, 75k over asking price https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/miranda-24-rockboro-avenue-old-blackrock-road-ballinlough-cork-t12-npy1

Tea drinker

timmyntc wrote: »

Cities should be for living - not for working.
We need more apartments (of a decent size), and less commercial space. That's the only thing that can save Dublin (or other city centres) going forward.
WFH is here to stay

I think you are right, WFH is likely here to stay, it will roll back a bit with people coming to office on rotational basis but pure guess I think 80% of the amount of days currently from home will remain. I'm not sure how retasking the old offices to accommodation will work in terms of transport, amenities like parks, playgrounds, or necessitates like shopping and domestic "things" deeper in the cities.
I worked in the old Ericsson offices on Georges Street Dun Laoghaire which now seem to be happily living life as apartments . And there's nearby park, transport shopping, walk etc. And some Dun Laoghaire wildlife too ;-)
Am not sure on the impact on commercial space outside offices, be interested to hear some ideas on that.

JimmyVik

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Still waiting patiently for the predicted crash in houses of 2020. This 3 bed semi-d in Cork sold in the last few days for nearly half a million, 75k over asking price https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/miranda-24-rockboro-avenue-old-blackrock-road-ballinlough-cork-t12-npy1

I got sick waiting.
Now im waiting for an answer to my third bid on a house.

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

i do understand a lot better than you but you still haven't addressed my question. Of course the property market will be negatively impacted, thats beside the point.

I am questioning why you constantly state the media are lying but you then reference media articles to support whatever you're trying to say. So is the media telling the truth or lying?

No you don't.The country economy are in deep coma with oxigen from government life support mashine.And all talks about property supply and "rising prices" are complete BS behind this scene !Because all movements which media call "pospandemic" are inertia from precovid times!

Balluba

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Still waiting patiently for the predicted crash in houses of 2020. This 3 bed semi-d in Cork sold in the last few days for nearly half a million, 75k over asking price https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/miranda-24-rockboro-avenue-old-blackrock-road-ballinlough-cork-t12-npy1

This house seems to me to be very spacious, bright and well presented and probably worth the money paid for it.

TheSheriff

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Still waiting patiently for the predicted crash in houses of 2020. This 3 bed semi-d in Cork sold in the last few days for nearly half a million, 75k over asking price https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/miranda-24-rockboro-avenue-old-blackrock-road-ballinlough-cork-t12-npy1

Lovely house, we considered a move to cork maybe two years ago at this point. In the sub 500k region tough there is often very little difference between the good burbs of Dublin and the good burbs of cork in terms of what you'll get.

Worrth the money IMO.

MacronvFrugals

Hubertj wrote: »

2 things here. 1. Never knew there was a “dublininquirer”.
2. Would developers not see how “well” other high end apartment developments have done the last couple of years? I presume they would be expecting big money for these?

Dublin Inquirer is great, really objective reporting.

HotDudeLife

Although i am not actively searching for a property (will likely by an investment property within 5 years), i have colleagues and younger relatives in the market so decided to have a gander.


From what i see, prices in some areas of Dublin are already dropping, the areas i looked at (D7,10,11,12,15,24) appear to average out at around 5% drops from 2017. My analysis was not complete though as i only grabbed 5 samples from each area (PPR sold price) and compared to houses of similar builds on the same road from 2017.



Again, not conclusive and leaves a lot to be desired and i will finish it when i get the time but from my analysis so far it looks like prices are in fact dropping in some areas of Dublin but not by a huge margin just yet.



If you are thinking of buying now in Dublin and are in the position to put it off a year or two i would advise you as if this continues we may see drops of 10-15% in the short term.

handlemaster

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-law-to-help-homeowners-affected-by-covid-who-have-fallen-into-arrears-39587972.html


And people wonder why mortgage rates are so high in ireland ����. These actions which are vote pleasing neglect the fact that others who continue to pay and the overall market will forever be paying more in interest payments as the risks of leading in ireland changes all the time.

Hubertj

the bombers found the money tree orchard. "solidarity tax"... you couldn't make it up

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/1009/1170473-sinn-fein-budget/

PropQueries

Looks like DCC is pushing back against student accommodation providers seeking to convert to other uses.

"Dublin City Council has pushed back against a student accommodation operator's move to convert a large development into a co-living scheme.

The DWS Group, a fund that controls €745 billion in assets, applied for permission to let 599 beds in its Point Village scheme near the 3Arena on the the residential market."

Between Q2 2016 and Q2 2019, c. 5000 student beds were built in Dublin and another 4,713 were in development as at Q2 2019 in Dublin. There's a lot of potential beds for alternative use if the Point Village manages to get through planning and others follow. Given how fast they seem to put them up, it shouldn't take them too long to convert to regular residential use should they choose to.

Link to Sunday Business Post article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial/planners-raise-concerns-over-point-village-co-living-switch-5a47f724

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

the bombers found the money tree orchard. "solidarity tax"... you couldn't make it up

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/1009/1170473-sinn-fein-budget/

only its not a solidarity tax,

solidarity would imply everyone would pay it

spoofers

PropQueries

handlemaster wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/new-law-to-help-homeowners-affected-by-covid-who-have-fallen-into-arrears-39587972.html


And people wonder why mortgage rates are so high in ireland ����. These actions which are vote pleasing neglect the fact that others who continue to pay and the overall market will forever be paying more in interest payments as the risks of leading in ireland changes all the time.

Interesting line in the article "It follows the Government's failure last week to persuade the banks to extend mortgage payment breaks for 37,000 borrowers whose current deals are now running out."

I think it was more due to the ECB demanding that they deal with them on a case by case basis.

But, in a properly functioning property market, repossessions shouldn't matter. Hand back the keys and move into a new house. Not sure how long a person is blacklisted for missing mortgage payments these days. Is it still basically for the rest of someone's productive life or did they change that? If that hasn't changed, I don't blame people for taking every avenue available to them to stay in their homes.

TheSheriff

Hubertj wrote: »

the bombers found the money tree orchard. "solidarity tax"... you couldn't make it up

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/1009/1170473-sinn-fein-budget/

I did vote SF last time, I think I was caught up in the frenzy they whipped up with voters in my bracket (FTBs) , won't be happening again.....

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like DCC is pushing back against student accommodation providers seeking to convert to other uses.

"Dublin City Council has pushed back against a student accommodation operator's move to convert a large development into a co-living scheme.

The DWS Group, a fund that controls €745 billion in assets, applied for permission to let 599 beds in its Point Village scheme near the 3Arena on the the residential market."

Between Q2 2016 and Q2 2019, c. 5000 student beds were built in Dublin and another 4,713 were in development as at Q2 2019 in Dublin. There's a lot of potential beds for alternative use if the Point Village manages to get through planning and others follow. Given how fast they seem to put them up, it shouldn't take them too long to convert to regular residential use should they choose to.

Link to Sunday Business Post article here: https://www.businesspost.ie/commercial/planners-raise-concerns-over-point-village-co-living-switch-5a47f724

I think the challenge medium term will be the price point for student res vs where the rental market is. Rents will fall/have fallen but at what price can the private providers or colleges offer units at. Could be cheaper in private rental than student res in a couple of years

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the challenge medium term will be the price point for student res vs where the rental market is. Rents will fall/have fallen but at what price can the private providers or colleges offer units at. Could be cheaper in private rental than student res in a couple of years

That's true. It's basically the equivalent of c. 5,000 two bedroom apartments having been built or already in development in Dublin between Q2 20016 and Q2 2019. Probably more since then. The high rents they were charging only made sense when there was a shortage of dedicated student units. But they have definitely come a long way towards meeting that shortage in the past few years.

Smouse156

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Still waiting patiently for the predicted crash in houses of 2020. This 3 bed semi-d in Cork sold in the last few days for nearly half a million, 75k over asking price https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/miranda-24-rockboro-avenue-old-blackrock-road-ballinlough-cork-t12-npy1

It’s nearly 1500sqft on the Blackrock road, the asking was too low to begin with

cnocbui

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Still waiting patiently for the predicted crash in houses of 2020. This 3 bed semi-d in Cork sold in the last few days for nearly half a million, 75k over asking price https://www.auctioneera.ie/property/miranda-24-rockboro-avenue-old-blackrock-road-ballinlough-cork-t12-npy1

Are you seeing many new houses being built in cork?

neutral guy

Hubertj wrote: »

I think the challenge medium term will be the price point for student res vs where the rental market is. Rents will fall/have fallen but at what price can the private providers or colleges offer units at. Could be cheaper in private rental than student res in a couple of years

Students already getting rooms in hotels with breakfast included at price of apartments ! This trend will continue next year when at same time empty apartments will on sale for half price !

brisan

td2008 wrote: »

Yeah I wonder are many people breaking the travel restrictions to view places - would be a bit of a pain for first time buyers if the HTB grant is only valid until December but they can't view anywhere

An EA was on during the week from the commuter belt ,Portlaoise I think
He had 15 viewings this Sat ,13 from Dublin ,he had to cancel them

silver2020

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Although i am not actively searching for a property (will likely by an investment property within 5 years), i have colleagues and younger relatives in the market so decided to have a gander.


From what i see, prices in some areas of Dublin are already dropping, the areas i looked at (D7,10,11,12,15,24) appear to average out at around 5% drops from 2017. My analysis was not complete though as i only grabbed 5 samples from each area (PPR sold price) and compared to houses of similar builds on the same road from 2017.



Again, not conclusive and leaves a lot to be desired and i will finish it when i get the time but from my analysis so far it looks like prices are in fact dropping in some areas of Dublin but not by a huge margin just yet.



If you are thinking of buying now in Dublin and are in the position to put it off a year or two i would advise you as if this continues we may see drops of 10-15% in the short term.

Prices in amnya reas of Dublin had gathered too much steam and have been steady or falling slightly for the last 2 years. Virtually every report on property prices will show you that.

I would say that if there was no covid, the precise same conclusion would have been reached as prices are maxed to the earning power and banks won't throw extra money at lenders.

Do a similar comparison on the outer commuter towns - Celbridge is higher, Naas is Higher, Ashbourne is higher and towns that are further out are seeing pent up demand now as people now realise they can work from home a lot of the time for the foreseeable future and possibly only attend the office twice a week, thus a more spacious out of Dublin setting is preferred.

But Dublin prices were always going to drop back to more reasonable levels especially in nondescript suburbs and nondescript house covid or no covid. But the naysayers will claim covid is doing it.

brisan

ELM327 wrote: »

I've hired 2 people on my team since this emergency started.
Most of my team and myself are late 20's to late 30's. These are the white collar jobs that are not affected.

As alluded to above, the jobs that are decimated are in service industry jobs like retail and hospitality. With the possible exception of management jobs, most jobs in these sectors are 25k/pa max, and most a lot below. No one on that money is going to be able to buy a house. Especially if its irregular hourly pay as opposed to salaried. Most people here will work in a different industry for more money in a couple of years ago. 15 years ago I worked in the service industry for 8-10 euro per hour.

The population of those realistically looking to buy a house probably has very little intersection with those in the retail or hospitality sectors.

If someone in a well paying job is buying a house with someone who is in a low paying job and the lower paid person loses their that affects their ability to get a mortgage .
A 25k salary adds 87.5 k to a potential mortgage
Unless well paid white collar workers only buy houses with white collar well paid workers

PropQueries

brisan wrote: »

An EA was on during the week from the commuter belt ,Portlaoise I think
He had 15 viewings this Sat ,13 from Dublin ,he had to cancel them

So he's basically saying there is very little buyer demand locally for homes?