Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Bass Reeves

neutral guy wrote: »

My resume for 2020 property market :

The Covid finally put things on place were they has to be
Who did not sell property for rent will have take loses
Those who was saving for mortgage free life finally will be awarded

The 2021 is the cash buyers time
The 2020 was the last chance for property owners get rid of the property without loses.

I was saving for mortgage free life last 9 years
I was wake up at 5 on morning and was going to bed at 23.00
I do not remember when I last time bought shoes
And I heard to many opinions to believe them

Dream on

In a downturn you only take a loss if you have to sell. Property investors are long term investors most that are now involved survived the last crash. If they were not most have bought cheap investment properties pre 2016.

We be here this time next year and we will have lads claiming 2022 will be the property bust year

neutral guy

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Dream on

In a downturn you only take a loss if you have to sell. Property investors are long term investors most that are now involved survived the last crash. If they were not most have bought cheap investment properties pre 2016.

We be here this time next year and we will have lads claiming 2022 will be the property bust year

As I always said :

No matter when you buy the matter is when you sell.
If you not gonna sell then is no matter how much you pay.

Danzy

neutral guy wrote: »

My resume for 2020 property market :

The Covid finally put things on place were they has to be
Who did not sell property for rent will have take loses
Those who was saving for mortgage free life finally will be awarded

The 2021 is the cash buyers time
The 2020 was the last chance for property owners get rid of the property without loses.

I was saving for mortgage free life last 9 years
I was wake up at 5 on morning and was going to bed at 23.00
I do not remember when I last time bought shoes
And I heard to many opinions to believe them

ðŸ˜ðŸ˜

neutral guy

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Dream on

I am not dream on same as many of us.We have enough money to mortgage free life and this is our time.If you are not one of us this is your problem.

Timing belt

neutral guy wrote: »

I was amazed how China made it progress
Work hard people and you will have mortgage free life !
Better work hard saving than work hard to paying !

China’s growth is due to cheap labour and a massively undervalued currency that has been manipulated to give unfair advantage.

At the end of the month the Banks will publish Q3 results and we will get the first view on how bad the housing market looks.

My bet is that the headline on the banks will be ‘not as bad as expected but uncertainty still a major risk’

jill_valentine

Hubertj wrote: »

Out of interest, if people in here are given option of wfh full time who would leave where they currently live? Personably I wouldn’t at my stage, kids in school and any family I have left are in Dublin as are all my friends. My wife’s job means she has to be in her pace of work every day.

If I was offered full time WFH I could buy a house when I currently can't. So I'd be gone like a shot, yes. The opportunity it would present me to own my own home would override absolutely any other consideration by far. I love living in Dublin, but the prospect of owning my own space leaves it in the dust very easily and pretty much everyone I know would snap your hand off for that deal.

Even if I could get a two day WFH, I would happily buy beyond the commuter belt and do the travelling.

Generation Rent can hear the clock ticking on their working life and mortgage term eligibility.

Danzy

neutral guy wrote: »

I do not remember when I last time bought shoes

When you are lying in bed all day, what need have you for shoes or chance to wear a sole.

neutral guy

Timing belt wrote: »

China’s growth is due to cheap labour and a massively undervalued currency that has been manipulated to give unfair advantage.

At the end of the month the Banks will publish Q3 results and we will get the first view on how bad the housing market looks.

My bet is that the headline on the banks will be ‘not as bad as expected but uncertainty still a major risk’

Go and do some work for better future of you family,will ya ?

Timing belt

neutral guy wrote: »

I am not dream on same as many of us.We have enough money to mortgage free life and this is our time.If you are not one of us this is your problem.

There is no sign of any credit crunch yet as central banks are throwing the kitchen sink at it so for now there are no signs of a major housing crash. Yes values will drop but not by more than 5%

hometruths

jill_valentine wrote: »

If I was offered full time WFH I could buy a house when I currently can't. So I'd be gone like a shot, yes. The opportunity it would present me to own my own home would override absolutely any other consideration by far. I love living in Dublin, but the prospect of owning my own space leaves it in the dust very easily and pretty much everyone I know would snap your hand off for that deal.

Generation Rent can hear the clock ticking on their working life and mortgage term eligibility.

Exactly, what a lot of posters are missing when Hubert says, “I wouldn’t leave at my stage”, is that his stage includes owning a house.

It’s the ones that haven’t got to Hubert’s stage who are going to leave.

Timing belt

neutral guy wrote: »

Go and do some work for better future of you family,will ya ?

Keep insulting everyone that does not agree with you It’s a good way to show you can not argue or back up any of your claims.

optogirl

neutral guy wrote: »

I am not dream on same as many of us.We have enough money to mortgage free life and this is our time.If you are not one of us this is your problem.

Ah get yourself some nice new shoes and quit braying about how prudent you are. You own a house. Well done.

neutral guy

optogirl wrote: »

Ah get yourself some nice new shoes and quit braying about how prudent you are. You own a house. Well done.

And you still pay the mortgage,.At 2019 prices

Graham

neutral guy wrote: »

Go and do some work for better future of you family,will ya ?

Mod Note

neutral guy, do not post in this thread again.

Hubertj

jill_valentine wrote: »

If I was offered full time WFH I could buy a house when I currently can't. So I'd be gone like a shot, yes. The opportunity it would present me to own my own home would override absolutely any other consideration by far. I love living in Dublin, but the prospect of owning my own space leaves it in the dust very easily and pretty much everyone I know would snap your hand off for that deal.

Even if I could get a two day WFH, I would happily buy beyond the commuter belt and do the travelling.

Generation Rent can hear the clock ticking on their working life and mortgage term eligibility.

So, are you from Dublin? If so would you want to live within an hour? Or would you go wherever? Just curious at to what people’s priorities would be.

Bubbaclaus

A guy too miserly to buy shoes is informing us about the economy and property market. Gas

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

Exactly, what a lot of posters are missing when Hubert says, “I wouldn’t leave at my stage”, is that his stage includes owning a house.

It’s the ones that haven’t got to Hubert’s stage who are going to leave.

I wouldn't be so confident on this.

Yes, some will leave but we have no way of knowing how many.

We are not from Dublin, no real families ties to here, have had a WFH option for years now. No intention of leaving. We enjoy living in Dublin.

Most of my friends are looking to buy somewhere, Covid has accelerated this massively with weddings cancelled.

I was expecting the conversation to be all about leaving Dublin, but its become about getting a house in the surburbs/commuter belt rather than an apartment in Ranleagh/Rathmines which was the focus before.

I do think these super trendy areas (Ranleagh/Rathmines etc.) will suffer the most, and its where we will see the largest falls. But I see the likes of Dun Laoighre/Bray/North Wicklow becoming even more in demand. Added space and commutable to the city for the days thats needed.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

Exactly, what a lot of posters are missing when Hubert says, “I wouldn’t leave at my stage”, is that his stage includes owning a house.

It’s the ones that haven’t got to Hubert’s stage who are going to leave.

Agreed that the generation rent will move to get a property and this will reduce the demand on rent and at the same time probably increase the demand for Airbnb for the days they need to be in the office. There will still be demand in the Dublin property market just in different areas

jill_valentine

Hubertj wrote: »

So, are you from Dublin? If so would you want to live within an hour? Or would you go wherever? Just curious at to what people’s priorities would be.

I'm from the country originally, but I moved up for work at 18. My friends mostly settled in the towns they got jobs or college courses in after school too, so we're used to having to plan meetups in advance. My social life in Dublin itself mostly centred around music and work drinks, but even before Covid that had died down a bit because I was trying to save the start of a deposit. It's not something I'd really miss much more than I do now.

If I was full time WFH somewhere within two hours of Dublin would be grand. I'd be happily looking at maybe Sligo or Carlow or similar on a trainline. Before Covid I was working with people who were renting in Portlaoise, Kells and Drogheda and commuting every day, so buying a long way out and travelling 2-3 days isn't as daunting a prospect to many as it might have seemed once.

I think the experience of long term renting to work in Dublin has made any alternative attractive to a lot of people.

Bass Reeves

neutral guy wrote: »

I am not dream on same as many of us.We have enough money to mortgage free life and this is our time.If you are not one of us this is your problem.

I am debt free with a farm and multiple houses so it still your problem not mine

Smouse156

Vieira82 wrote: »

Very true... but that's because it cannot continue to go higher and higher, the higher it will get the less people will be able to afford. If the prices keep going up by means of a virtual inflation of market monopolization then the average joe will end up living on the streets.

Crashes are there to self correct these unregulated growths.

Now if you are not seeing property prices going down while literally the whole country is slowly shutting down again, and people having less and less money then it points out to the property market not being in the hands of supply and demand anymore but in the hands of big companies artificially keeping the price high to keep making profits out of it while the average joe struggles to keep the mortgage payments and closes his small business..

To make it simpler. Imagine ten people passing a ball between themselves. Everytime there's a pass the person that gets it gets one euro. Those 10 guys are vulture funds and the ball is the bulk of properties in Dublin, but could be London or SanFran or Lisbon. And that euro signifies the profit each of them makes from selling a property to the other.

Time will show if this is true or not.

They don’t own enough of the market to make this true. Look at the expensive BTR schemes, they tried to set high prices and maintain them and they’re all empty

Smouse156

jill_valentine wrote: »

If I was offered full time WFH I could buy a house when I currently can't. So I'd be gone like a shot, yes. The opportunity it would present me to own my own home would override absolutely any other consideration by far. I love living in Dublin, but the prospect of owning my own space leaves it in the dust very easily and pretty much everyone I know would snap your hand off for that deal.

Even if I could get a two day WFH, I would happily buy beyond the commuter belt and do the travelling.

Generation Rent can hear the clock ticking on their working life and mortgage term eligibility.

Very true, say what you like about Dublin having amenities/services etc, nobody wants to be a rent slave

Smouse156

Timing belt wrote: »

Keep insulting everyone that does not agree with you It’s a good way to show you can not argue or back up any of your claims.

Why does anyone here read or reply to Neutral Guy? He’s clearly trolling. Last 5 pages most posts are Neutral Guy or replies to Neutral Guy. Becomes much easier to read the threat when you skip all those posts

L1011

He won't be posting again anyway

Taylor365

Smouse156 wrote: »

Very true, say what you like about Dublin having amenities/services etc, nobody wants to be a rent slave

If a 2 bed was 7-900 a month, sign me up! Never worry about appliances, structure, etc.

Instead, rent is double that. :pac:

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

I wouldn't be so confident on this.

Yes, some will leave but we have no way of knowing how many.

We are not from Dublin, no real families ties to here, have had a WFH option for years now. No intention of leaving. We enjoy living in Dublin.

Most of my friends are looking to buy somewhere, Covid has accelerated this massively with weddings cancelled.

I was expecting the conversation to be all about leaving Dublin, but its become about getting a house in the surburbs/commuter belt rather than an apartment in Ranleagh/Rathmines which was the focus before.

I do think these super trendy areas (Ranleagh/Rathmines etc.) will suffer the most, and its where we will see the largest falls. But I see the likes of Dun Laoighre/Bray/North Wicklow becoming even more in demand. Added space and commutable to the city for the days thats needed.

I would have thought Dun Laoighaire already was in massive demand. And I'd probably say the same for Bray/North Wicklow.

In a nutshell I think there will be a shunt of demand further out.

A number who in 2019 were looking to buy in suburbs inside M50 will start looking further out eg Bray/North Wicklow, a number who were looking in Bray/North Wicklow will start looking further south eg Wicklow town etc etc.

And top of that you will have a number who can scatter back to whatever town they came from to be closer family etc.

This will have a fairly significant impact across the entire market.

But I actually think the opposite of you in that it is the areas like Ranelagh/Rathmines/Portobello/Ballsbridge/Sandycove/Monsktown/Dalkey that will hold up best.

These places have always been in big demand because they are are the nicest parts of Dublin - some of them a big attraction is you can walk into town, others its the sea views and the elegant houses. They are leafy and established.

It's the areas like Goatstown that I think will suffer. The main demand for these place is driven by the fact it is close to Dublin. There are not a lot of other redeeming features for a lot of these areas.

PropQueries

Interesting article in the Irish Independent today: 'Budget deficits mean the cost of Covid will match bank bailouts'.

"The final bill to the Irish Exchequer from the Covid crisis is set to exceed the €42bn cost of bailing out the banks a decade ago... Unlike the bank crisis that spawned years of austerity, there is also no sign the Covid crisis will force hard economic decisions on Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath."

Let's put this in perspective. This additional borrowings of €42,000,000,000 would build 168,000 social houses at an average cost of €250,000 each. There were less than 30,000 households throughout Co. Dublin on the housing waiting list, the vast majority renting from private landlords.

Is this the magic money tree many complain about when analysing SF budget proposals? I'm not an avid SF supporter, but do many people in this country truly believe this level of borrowing isn't come to come back and bite us very hard and very soon even if interest rates are and remain at 0% indefinitely?

Income taxes/PRSI are probably as high as they can ever go. So, what/who is left to tax?

Irish Independent article link here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/budget-deficits-mean-the-cost-of-covid-will-match-bank-bailouts-39607365.html

HotDudeLife

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting article in the Irish Independent today: 'Budget deficits mean the cost of Covid will match bank bailouts'.

"The final bill to the Irish Exchequer from the Covid crisis is set to exceed the €42bn cost of bailing out the banks a decade ago... Unlike the bank crisis that spawned years of austerity, there is also no sign the Covid crisis will force hard economic decisions on Paschal Donohoe and Michael McGrath."

Let's put this in perspective. This additional borrowings of €42,000,000,000 would build 168,000 social houses at an average cost of €250,000 each. There were less than 30,000 households throughout Co. Dublin on the housing waiting list, the vast majority renting from private landlords.

Is this the magic money tree many complain about when analysing SF budget proposals? I'm not an avid SF supporter, but do many people in this country truly believe this level of borrowing isn't come to come back and bite us very hard and very soon even if interest rates are and remain at 0% indefinitely?

Income taxes/PRSI are probably as high as they can ever go. So, what/who is left to tax?

Irish Independent article link here: https://www.independent.ie/opinion/comment/budget-deficits-mean-the-cost-of-covid-will-match-bank-bailouts-39607365.html

Someone will have to pay and i'll have what SF are smoking, absolute pie in the sky stuff from them, truly delusional and won't stop until Ireland is a communist wasteland, anyway, i digress.


It will be interesting to see if the property market follows the same trajectory as the property crash in 2008/09 relating to the bank bailouts, it took 2-3 years for the market to bottom out and if i was a gambling man i would predict the same this time around, we will see the beginning of this in early 2021 as more individuals are impacted by this recession and banks start tightening or becoming more selective in their lending add to this the eventual withdrawl of government covid support and it will all snowball into a large downturn possibly bottoming out in 2023 sometime.


Everywhere i go and talk to individuals (bar those in my industry and big tech/medical), it is utterly dire straits out there, small talk is akin to that of which occurred in 2008. All to well this becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, give it time, this will be a bumpy ride.

Idbatterim

A fifty percebt marginal rate of tax. Virtually no lpt or motor tax, no water charges. An obscene welfare state, free luxury housing for many. E350 week pup even if you were on 35 week before that... brought to you by the economic experts pf ffg. Defend that... oh but sf, sf might turn out to be a joke. But ffg are proven jokes

PropQueries

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Someone will have to pay and i'll have what SF are smoking, absolute pie in the sky stuff from them, truly delusional and won't stop until Ireland is a communist wasteland, anyway, i digress.


It will be interesting to see if the property market follows the same trajectory as the property crash in 2008/09 relating to the bank bailouts, it took 2-3 years for the market to bottom out and if i was a gambling man i would predict the same this time around, we will see the beginning of this in early 2021 as more individuals are impacted by this recession and banks start tightening or becoming more selective in their lending add to this the eventual withdrawl of government covid support and it will all snowball into a large downturn possibly bottoming out in 2023 sometime.


Everywhere i go and talk to individuals (bar those in my industry and big tech/medical), it is utterly dire straits out there, small talk is akin to that of which occurred in 2008. All to well this becomes a self fulfilling prophecy, give it time, this will be a bumpy ride.

You're right on the small talk. I would take that very seriously as that's where you begin to see the problems start. People on the street almost always know what's about to happen long before most of the experts and commentators.

There was an interesting opinion piece in the FT back in May in relation to the UK titled: 'Tax: how we will pay for the pandemic measures'.

The main points that look like serious contenders for Ireland IMO were:

"Pensions
Even before the pandemic, pensions tax relief for higher earners was under threat. It cost £38bn in 2018-19 making it the most expensive tax break, according to the National Audit Office (NAO).

Inheritance tax
Inheritance tax is has been identified as ripe for reform by various bodies including the Office of Tax Simplification, giving the chancellor plenty of scope to make changes.

Property taxes
After pensions tax relief, the Exchequer’s second most costly giveaway is Private Residence Relief which exempts people from paying tax on gains when they sell their main home. The NAO found the relief was worth £26.7bn in 2018-19 — but changing such a longstanding feature of the UK tax system would be hugely controversial.

Could a ‘wealth tax’ become reality?
Introducing a new wealth tax, either as a one-off or an ongoing levy on people’s assets, is another option the chancellor may consider, despite it being a policy the Conservatives have traditionally rejected."

Link to Financial Times article here: https://www.ft.com/content/7a01b73b-d1ec-4b6e-a7b1-2d1a0060de91

This is why I've being getting a lot more concerned and interested in this whole housing issue over the past six months. It's definitely me they're coming after. There's nobody else left.