Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, the commuter belt will become much bigger.

Interesting to understand Irish rails plans medium term. If I was moving to commuter belt I would like to have rail to rely on besides driving only.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Interesting to understand Irish rails plans medium term. If I was moving to commuter belt I would like to have rail to rely on besides driving only.

Plenty of options available:

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Plenty of options available:

I meant improvement to services - frequency, capacity, reliability. A service to serve the people. I don’t think that happens now.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

I meant improvement to services - frequency, capacity, reliability. A service to serve the people. I don’t think that happens now.

Where I live is now prime commuter belt.

Relatively recently it was Dublin hinterland. As population of Dublin grew, and people were priced out of that market, commuters began to move here in large numbers.

One of the attractions was the Inter City train, which ran to Dublin, albeit infrequently, but it was an existing option.

And guess what happened? As more people moved here, Irish Rail improved the service - frequency, capacity and reliability, and ultimately they extended the Dart line.

So we've gone from hinterland to prime commuter belt in a relatively short space of time.

This all happened when neither the management culture nor the technology existed to make WFH an option.

That map shows that the infrastructure and services are already in place. It is fairly simple to improve them as demand warrants it.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

Where I live is now prime commuter belt.

Relatively recently it was Dublin hinterland. As population of Dublin grew, and people were priced out of that market, commuters began to move here in large numbers.

One of the attractions was the Inter City train, which ran to Dublin, albeit infrequently, but it was an existing option.

And guess what happened? As more people moved here, Irish Rail improved the service - frequency, capacity and reliability, and ultimately they extended the Dart line.

So we've gone from hinterland to prime commuter belt in a relatively short space of time.

This all happened when neither the management culture nor the technology existed to make WFH an option.

That map shows that the infrastructure and services are already in place. It is fairly simple to improve them as demand warrants it.

Presume you mean Greystones , which is lovely I have to say but now effectively trades at south county Dublin prices.

As I said before if people move out prices in those locations will rise to meet them.

Greystones is being over developed now as well it seems (not sure how the locals see it but to me there seems to be an awful lot of new development)

hometruths

Cyrus wrote: »

Presume you mean Greystones , which is lovely I have to say but now effectively trades at south county Dublin prices.

As I said before if people move out prices in those locations will rise to meet them.

Greystones is being over developed now as well it seems (not sure how the locals see it but to me there seems to be an awful lot of new development)

Yes, Greystones. And yes I think it is fair to say locals see it as being over developed!

combat14

any educated guesses what will happen the economy and property market here the next 6 months if there is an extended winter lock down which seems to be on the cards ..

PropQueries

schmittel wrote: »

Plenty of options available:

But I would assume flexitime would be used in conjunction with WFH, so maybe rail services mightn’t be the deal breaker it was pre-Covid.

I would doubt onsite meetings will be booked for 9.30 am if WFH is implemented as the big benefit of WFH is no rush hour commuting.

For example, it’s a 50 min drive off peak to Dublin from Mullingar.

Cyrus

combat14 wrote: »

any educated guesses what will happen the economy and property market here the next 6 months if there is an extended winter lock down which seems to be on the cards ..

Which cards are these ?

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Where I live is now prime commuter belt.

Relatively recently it was Dublin hinterland. As population of Dublin grew, and people were priced out of that market, commuters began to move here in large numbers.

One of the attractions was the Inter City train, which ran to Dublin, albeit infrequently, but it was an existing option.

And guess what happened? As more people moved here, Irish Rail improved the service - frequency, capacity and reliability, and ultimately they extended the Dart line.

So we've gone from hinterland to prime commuter belt in a relatively short space of time.

This all happened when neither the management culture nor the technology existed to make WFH an option.

That map shows that the infrastructure and services are already in place. It is fairly simple to improve them as demand warrants it.

That’s true but compare to Kildare. I believe trains have been overcrowded for a couple of years and it will be another couple before capacity etc is expanded. Add in more people moving out of city.....

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s true but compare to Kildare. I believe trains have been overcrowded for a couple of years and it will be another couple before capacity etc is expanded. Add in more people moving out of city.....

That's true but if people have hitherto been prepared to buy houses in Kildare knowing they will face an overcrowded train journey 5 days a week, I have no doubt more people will wish to buy in Kildare knowing they will face an overcrowded train journey 2 days a week.

JJJackal

Cyrus wrote: »

Which cards are these ?

exactly

Marius34

combat14 wrote: »

any educated guesses what will happen the economy and property market here the next 6 months if there is an extended winter lock down which seems to be on the cards ..

I'll say it was expected partial lockdown, in a type of Level 3. I believe we will see staying around Levels of 2/3 until May 2021 or so.
That's obviously bad for the economy. And has very negative impact.
But I don't think this will have much impact of residential property prices.
Reasons are simple and fundamental. From one side economical downturn and unemployment pushes the prices down, but from other side savings and importance of the home, due to restrictions, pushes prices up.

We may see rental prices going down in short term, but I'm afraid by Aug/Sep 2021 we will see rental problem coming back, I guess it will be a nightmare to find rental property.

Danzy

Timing belt wrote: »

What you are talking about is outsourcing work to a different country which is very different to WFH.

They may end up as the one though.

Timing belt

Danzy wrote: »

They may end up as the one though.

Multi nations won’t allow it as impacts on there corporate tax

thefridge2006

Graham wrote: »

Confirmation bias;

coined by English psychologist Peter Wason, is the tendency of people to favour information that confirms or strengthens their beliefs or values, and is difficult to dislodge once affirmed. Confirmation bias is an example of a cognitive bias, and also of the tendency to mistakenly perceive connections and meaning between unrelated things, termed apophenia.

Some psychologists restrict the term confirmation bias to selective collection of evidence that supports what one already believes while ignoring or rejecting evidence that supports a different conclusion.

I think the MODs on this thread should be ashamed of themselves. they are so one sided and disrespectful to anyone who has a different view to theirs.

I presumed they were meant to be mutual to an extent but in here they banned Neutral and now comments like this.... Maybe allow people to say what they think about the future (nobody knows so anyone can be right) of the irish property market instead of dismissing people that don't agree with what you think.....its kind of ironic and "confirmation bias" in itself

TheSheriff

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, Greystones. And yes I think it is fair to say locals see it as being over developed!

We viewed a few places two sunny weekends last summer in greystones. It looks like a lovely place to live, but last year we found it as expensive (if not more) than some areas of Dublin we were looking at. Particularly the Charlesland development, it was difficult enough to find something reasonable back then.

hometruths

TheSheriff wrote: »

We viewed a few places two sunny weekends last summer in greystones. It looks like a lovely place to live, but last year we found it as expensive (if not more) thank some areas of Dublin we were looking at. Particularly the Charlesland development, it was difficult enough to find something reasonable back then.

I've seen it cited as most expensive place outside Dublin, so am not surprised to hear its pricier than some parts.

I genuinely think it is a perfect example of how places like Wicklow, Arklow, Wexford might develop thanks to WFH. Those towns have everything Greystones had when people started moving here.

The Spider

awec wrote: »

How?

I mean, it's certainly an option for some, maybe even an option for many, but "no brainer" is obviously nonsense. It's something that needs to be carefully considered.

I take it you’re from Dublin? Newsflash 95% of people from the country, or outside Dublin, are literally only there for jobs, most of them would be gone in a heartbeat if they could but are stuck there because of work.

WFH will allow people to get out and have a decent quality of life, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you’d need 150 grand a year in Dublin to have the same lifestyle you’d have in Waterford or Kilkenny on 55 grand, so in that sense it’s an absolute no brainer to get out of Dublin

VegggieMonster

TheSheriff wrote: »

We viewed a few places two sunny weekends last summer in greystones. It looks like a lovely place to live, but last year we found it as expensive (if not more) thank some areas of Dublin we were looking at. Particularly the Charlesland development, it was difficult enough to find something reasonable back then.

Yes, agree. If we could fork out 500k for a new build we would most likely move there or to Delgany we want to be careful not to spend most of the savings on deposit hence the idea of moving further out if wfh allows it. While there is always a risk of 'what if I ever need to change the job' but if you do like your job, work for a decent company and you get option for WFH, chances are we will see some change in terms of demand growing in some more rural places. Even if this increases prices in those areas, the land is much cheaper there compared to Dublin. Let us see what 2021 brings, so we don't have to guess anymore.

awec

The Spider wrote: »

I take it you’re from Dublin? Newsflash 95% of people from the country, or outside Dublin, are literally only there for jobs, most of them would be gone in a heartbeat if they could but are stuck there because of work.

WFH will allow people to get out and have a decent quality of life, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you’d need 150 grand a year in Dublin to have the same lifestyle you’d have in Waterford or Kilkenny on 55 grand, so in that sense it’s an absolute no brainer to get out of Dublin

I’m not from Dublin, no. Your 95% number is nonsense.

You can’t have the same lifestyle in Waterford or Kilkenny compared to Dublin. What a daft notion. It’s a completely different lifestyle, that’s the whole point.

hometruths

VegggieMonster wrote: »

Yes, agree. If we could fork out 500k for a new build we would most likely move there or to Delgany we want to be careful not to spend most of the savings on deposit hence the idea of moving further out if wfh allows it. While there is always a risk of 'what if I ever need to change the job' but if you do like your job, work for a decent company and you get option for WFH, chances are we will see some change in terms of demand growing in some more rural places. Even if this increases prices in those areas, the land is much cheaper there compared to Dublin. Let us see what 2021 brings, so we don't have to guess anymore.

Would you be tempted by Wicklow town if the same house was 350k as opposed to 500k?

awec

schmittel wrote: »

Would you be tempted by Wicklow town if the same house was 350k as opposed to 500k?

I personally wouldn’t. Would you?

Public transport options that far out are terrible and if anyone thinks that’s going to change in the short or medium term they are delusional.

The Spider

The Spider wrote: »

I take it you’re from Dublin? Newsflash 95% of people from the country, or outside Dublin, are literally only there for jobs, most of them would be gone in a heartbeat if they could but are stuck there because of work.

WFH will allow people to get out and have a decent quality of life, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, you’d need 150 grand a year in Dublin to have the same lifestyle you’d have in Waterford or Kilkenny on 55 grand, so in that sense it’s an absolute no brainer to get out of Dublin

totally not true!

The Spider

awec wrote: »

I’m not from Dublin, no. Your 95% number is nonsense.

You can’t have the same lifestyle in Waterford or Kilkenny compared to Dublin. What a daft notion. It’s a completely different lifestyle, that’s the whole point.

Ok I’ll bite explain to me the different lifetstyle you can have in Dublin vs Waterford vs Kilkenny, and let’s leave concerts out of it, for the amount of time the average person goes to them, oh and covid has probably put an end to them either way.

So let’s go what are the things you can do in Dublin that you can’t do in Waterford?

Timing belt

awec wrote: »

I’m not from Dublin, no. Your 95% number is nonsense.

You can’t have the same lifestyle in Waterford or Kilkenny compared to Dublin. What a daft notion. It’s a completely different lifestyle, that’s the whole point.

What can you do in Dublin that you can’t in any other city in Ireland?

awec

The Spider wrote: »

Ok I’ll bite explain to me the different lifetstyle you can have in Dublin vs Waterford vs Kilkenny, and let’s leave concerts out of it, for the amount of time the average person goes to them, oh and covid has probably put an end to them either way.

So let’s go what are the things you can do in Dublin that you can’t do in Waterford?

You're missing the point. Dublin is the capital city, in terms of having places to go and things to see nothing else has anywhere near the same selection and range of choice. Maybe Cork.

(I don't live in Dublin either, for what it's worth).

There's some amount of fluff posted on here at times about Dublin. "My town has a pub and a restaurant and a park, so you can do everything you can do in Dublin! Why would anyone want to live there? Sure they're only there reluctantly!".

It's the sheer amount of choice of things to do in Dublin that makes it better then other cities.

Can you go for coffees, dinners, drinks, visit galleries, museums, cinemas etc etc in other cities? yep, course you can, but there is a limited amount of these things, Dublin gives people more choice.
City living isn't for everyone, but for people who enjoy city living then Dublin is the best choice.

Cyrus

schmittel wrote: »

I've seen it cited as most expensive place outside Dublin, so am not surprised to hear its pricier than some parts.

I genuinely think it is a perfect example of how places like Wicklow, Arklow, Wexford might develop thanks to WFH. Those towns have everything Greystones had when people started moving here.

Arklow

Forget about it and the dart won’t go beyond greystones

Cyrus

bubblypop wrote: »

totally not true!

Exactly