Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

smellyoldboot

TheSheriff wrote: »

Prime example of the lack of understanding I'm talking about right here.

Oh yeah, we poor country bumpkins could never understand the cultural delights we are missing out on in our little Birmingham/Glasgow replica of a capital city.

Get a grip. I mean fair play there was some scamming pulled to convince the likes of Facebook they were coming to a real European city but then sophistication and eye for detail has never exactly been Americans strong point.

PropQueries

bubblypop wrote: »

I dunno, I couldn't tell you a mtb trial anywhere close to my hometown, could point you to plenty within 20 mins of where I live in Dublin.
Not everyone who likes city living is interested in drinking!

I think WFH will give some people the opportunity they have been waiting for, but for anyone settled with family, it's not so simple.

But the impact won’t originate from people who already own a home. They’re most likely staying put unless they can sell and move down the country and live their lives mortgage free.

It’s who will buy their houses if they do decide to sell? Most of the new houses currently being built are in the greater Dublin region and those potential probate sales continue to build up.

The question is, if someone in Dublin decides to sell their home in c. 5 years time, who will be around to be buying it?

Healy_Rayban

Congrats to the homeowners, you have won. The government are going to do anything they can to prevent a drop in prices.

TheSheriff

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Oh yeah, we poor country bumpkins could never understand the cultural delights we are missing out on in our little Birmingham/Glasgow replica of a capital city.

Get a grip. I mean fair play there was some scamming pulled to convince the likes of Facebook they were coming to a real European city but then sophistication and eye for detail has never exactly been Americans strong point.

You perhaps think my post was a personal attack on "country bumpkins", which it wasn't in the slightest. I am not from Dublin, I just live here. I am from somewhere quite rural.

I've never understood the hatred towards Dublin.

Not everyone wants to live in Dublin & not everyone in Ireland is pining to move to rural Ireland either.

Insulting the place really just shows you don't understand why people choose to live there.

smellyoldboot

TheSheriff wrote: »

You perhaps think my post was a personal attack on "country bumpkins", which it wasn't in the slightest. I am not from Dublin, I just live here. I am from somewhere quite rural.

I've never understood the hatred towards Dublin.

Not everyone wants to live in Dublin & not everyone in Ireland is pining to move to rural Ireland either.

Insulting the place really just shows you don't understand why people choose to live there.

It's not hatred as much as seeing it for what it is. It is the capital city, it should be an attractive vibrant place that people want to be. In true Irish "any oul ****e will do" style what we actually have is an overpriced, overhyped yet pretty mediocre city, like a bigger version of the other 4 absolutely appalling "cities" but that unfortunately some buy into the hype and believe they are living in a global city. And thus the circus and price gouging continues apace.

Timing belt

TheSheriff wrote: »

You perhaps think my post was a personal attack on "country bumpkins", which it wasn't in the slightest. I am not from Dublin, I just live here. I am from somewhere quite rural.

I've never understood the hatred towards Dublin.

Not everyone wants to live in Dublin & not everyone in Ireland is pining to move to rural Ireland either.

Insulting the place really just shows you don't understand why people choose to live there.

There will be people that love Dublin and people that would prefer to live in Dublin but if you are renting in Dublin you have an uphill struggle to buy and this opens up options for them. It’s not about which is better as that will be a personal choice.

There will always be demand for good housing In Dublin as it is the capital city. It is the rental market that will feel the pinch and there will be less demand from ftb but the property market Is not going to collapse in Dublin on the back of this.

Hubertj

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Oh yeah, we poor country bumpkins could never understand the cultural delights we are missing out on in our little Birmingham/Glasgow replica of a capital city.

Get a grip. I mean fair play there was some scamming pulled to convince the likes of Facebook they were coming to a real European city but then sophistication and eye for detail has never exactly been Americans strong point.

A town without a Starbucks isn’t worth living in

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

A town without a Starbucks isn’t worth living in

Thumbs up for Arklow.

Timing belt

Hubertj wrote: »

A town without a Starbucks isn’t worth living in

Would Nescafé not do lol

OwlsZat

smellyoldboot wrote: »

Oh yeah, we poor country bumpkins could never understand the cultural delights we are missing out on in our little Birmingham/Glasgow replica of a capital city.

Get a grip. I mean fair play there was some scamming pulled to convince the likes of Facebook they were coming to a real European city but then sophistication and eye for detail has never exactly been Americans strong point.

The only people we scammed was the EU. Questionable taxation policy that has so far insulated us against a deep and dark recession. No doubt though Dublin's is not on par with it's EU rivals. It's draw is jobs.

Chiparus

bubblypop wrote: »

I think maybe you need to get out more! There is so much more than shops in Dublin!
Can I ask what you would find to do in a country town?

Mostly outdoor stuff, cycling road, downhill , walking , running, fishing shooting, gardening , gym , swimming golf all within 1 km of where I live,

If I want to do golf , MTB, gym/swimming in Dublin, I have to get in the car and drive.
When I stay in my Dublin home I worry about crime and interaction with neighbours. Parking is a real issue. I grew up in Dublin and went to college there , but certainly dislike living there.

MacronvFrugals

AIB eyes cost cuts as €200m savings needed to reach profit targets

AIB eyes cost cuts as €200m savings needed to reach profit targets
Bank reconsidering office spaces in Dublin in addition to 1,500 job cuts

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-eyes-cost-cuts-as-200m-savings-needed-to-reach-profit-targets-1.4378044?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Ffinancial-services%2Faib-eyes-cost-cuts-as-200m-savings-needed-to-reach-profit-targets-1.4378044

Cyrus

Chiparus wrote: »

Mostly outdoor stuff, cycling road, downhill , walking , running, fishing shooting, gardening , gym , swimming golf all within 1 km of where I live,

If I want to do golf , MTB, gym/swimming in Dublin, I have to get in the car and drive.
When I stay in my Dublin home I worry about crime and interaction with neighbours. Parking is a real issue. I grew up in Dublin and went to college there , but certainly dislike living there.

depends on where you live in dublin, i can walk to all of that stuff, have no worries about crime or parking and have great neighbours.

its not a dublin or outside dublin thing its where exactly you live thing.

Nermal

smellyoldboot wrote: »

unfortunately some buy into the hype and believe they are living in a global city.

We are.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Globalization_and_World_Cities_Research_Network

PropQueries

Smouse156 wrote: »

I was wondering if anybody knew if every sale has to go on the PPR?

Just as an example below, Lansdowne Place claim they had 88 sales in 2019, yet on the PPR only 10 results:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/new-to-market/shared-spaces-and-new-units-launch-at-luxury-lansdowne-place-1.4005273

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/website/npsra/PPR/npsra-ppr.nsf/PPR-By-Date&Start=1&Query=%5Baddress%5D=*Lansdowne%20place*%20AND%20%5Bdc_county%5D=Dublin&County=Dublin&Year=&StartMonth=&EndMonth=&Address=Lansdowne%20place

Am I missing something? Surely 78 sales didn’t fall through? I thought they had to be posted within 4 months or closure?

Looks like one of the few that did buy is now looking to sell.

They're seeking €1,495,000 according to MyHome.ie (link below). According to the PPR, this apartment sold for €1,431,718 in August 2019.

As the PPR for new build homes is listed ex.VAT at 13.5% (I'm open to correction if that's not true, but I read that here before), would that mean they originally paid c. €1,600,000 for the apartment?

Link to MyHome.ie here (Apartment 12 The Templeton, Lansdowne Place): https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/apartment-12-the-templeton-lansdowne-place-dublin-4-dublin/4461339

cnocbui

Hubertj wrote: »

A town without a Starbucks isn’t worth living in

I'd say it was too big.

thefridge2006

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

AIB eyes cost cuts as €200m savings needed to reach profit targets

AIB eyes cost cuts as €200m savings needed to reach profit targets
Bank reconsidering office spaces in Dublin in addition to 1,500 job cuts

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/aib-eyes-cost-cuts-as-200m-savings-needed-to-reach-profit-targets-1.4378044?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Ffinancial-services%2Faib-eyes-cost-cuts-as-200m-savings-needed-to-reach-profit-targets-1.4378044

I'd say we'll see lots more of these type of announcements in the coming months and years.... but of course these lay offs wont affect the housing market .......

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like one of the few that did buy is now looking to sell.

They're seeking €1,495,000 according to MyHome.ie (link below). According to the PPR, this apartment sold for €1,431,718 in August 2019.

As the PPR for new build homes is listed ex.VAT at 13.5% (I'm open to correction if that's not true, but I read that here before), would that mean they originally paid c. €1,600,000 for the apartment?

Link to MyHome.ie here (Apartment 12 The Templeton, Lansdowne Place): https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/apartment-12-the-templeton-lansdowne-place-dublin-4-dublin/4461339

I just can’t get my head around why someone would pay that much for an apartment. Would be an interesting comparison to see what houses were for sale at €1.5m when the purchaser chose a 2 bed apartment instead.

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

I just can’t get my head around why someone would pay that much for an apartment. Would be an interesting comparison to see what houses were for sale at €1.5m when the purchaser chose a 2 bed apartment instead.

a downsizer who just sold a gaff for 3/4/5m most likely.

Chiparus

snotboogie wrote: »

In terms of Waterford and Kilkenny, having no university is a big loss. If you have a family you are going to be paying huge money to send your children to Dublin to study. Hospitals is another big one, if you happen to get sick, you will have consistent awful commutes to one of the big hospitals. Less important but still a factor is the airport, if you are traveling more than once per quarter, you are going to save a lot of hassle by living in Dublin. Nightlife and Restaurants are on a whole other level in Dublin than in Waterford and Kilkenny. Cultural events like big sports matches, concerts and (even) museums are almost exclusively in Dublin.

Cork has some of these things; a University, major hospitals, an Airport (with limited routes), is quite close to Dublin in nightlife and restaurants but way behind on cultural events. Limerick and Galway have a bit less again; they both have a University, kind of share an airport (it's more Limericks than Galways) are behind Cork on food and nightlife (Galway would be closer to Cork than Limerick). Kilkenny and Waterford have none of these things, which is a huge step down from the other three cities, nevermind Dublin

As I said , I have homes in both, most of the time being in Dublin is boring ,my children go to college in Galway, I enjoy the sporting events , but they are rare and very expensive . Museums like most people I might go once in 5 years.
The airport issue I dont get you as its only 40-50 minutes extra with the motorways so its no big deal.
Crime is a big worry in the city and have been broken into a few times, I live in Dartry so its a nice area.

Hubertj

Cyrus wrote: »

a downsizer who just sold a gaff for 3/4/5m most likely.

Ah didn’t think of that.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

a downsizer who just sold a gaff for 3/4/5m most likely.

It's an interesting case study as my understanding is that these should have been completed last year and there's still scaffolding around the site. One would begin to think they're purposely slowing down their completion due to a lack of potential sales or interest.

Also, to get around part V, they purchased 53 apartments at Shelbourne Plaza, Ringsend and sold these to the Council for €24.5 million.

According to the PPR, they have sold 10 of the 215 apartments on site.

Back in December 2016, it was reported: "With the piling works close to completion, work has also started on pouring the basement concrete slabs in preparation for the construction of 215 apartments in a pavilion-style development."

Would it really take more than 4 years to complete such a development?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

It's an interesting case study as my understanding is that these should have been completed last year and there's still scaffolding around the site. One would begin to think they're purposely slowing down their completion due to a lack of potential sales or interest.

Also, to get around part V, they purchased 53 apartments at Shelbourne Plaza, Ringsend and sold these to the Council for €24.5 million.

According to the PPR, they have sold 10 of the 215 apartments on site.

Back in December 2016, it was reported: "With the piling works close to completion, work has also started on pouring the basement concrete slabs in preparation for the construction of 215 apartments in a pavilion-style development."

Would it really take more than 4 years to complete such a development?

Yes, you're right, they are slowing down construction, deliberately increasing their costs and delaying getting any sort of return on purpose. :rolleyes:

Some of the stuff posted on here in recent months is genuinely ridiculous.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

It's an interesting case study as my understanding is that these should have been completed last year and there's still scaffolding around the site. One would begin to think they're purposely slowing down their completion due to a lack of potential sales or interest.

Also, to get around part V, they purchased 53 apartments at Shelbourne Plaza, Ringsend and sold these to the Council for €24.5 million.

According to the PPR, they have sold 10 of the 215 apartments on site.

Back in December 2016, it was reported: "With the piling works close to completion, work has also started on pouring the basement concrete slabs in preparation for the construction of 215 apartments in a pavilion-style development."

Would it really take more than 4 years to complete such a development?

Well there goes your theory it’ll be mostly social housing eh

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Yes, you're right, they are slowing down construction, deliberately increasing their costs and delaying getting any sort of return on purpose. :rolleyes:

Some of the stuff posted on here in recent months is genuinely ridiculous.

Apologies. You're probably right. The normal time it would normally take to build 215 apartments on a relatively small site is probably at c. 5 years.

OwlsZat

PropQueries wrote: »

Apologies. You're probably right. The normal time it would normally take to build 215 apartments on a relatively small site is probably at c. 5 years.

People love shooting down theories with absolutely no alternative ideas whatsoever. They are the Sinn Fein style posters of Boards.ie

awec

OwlsZat wrote: »

People love shooting down theories with absolutely no alternative ideas whatsoever. They are the Sinn Fein style posters of Boards.ie

People love to shoot down silly theories like developers taking steps to deliberately increase their costs.

2-3 months ago it was all "developers will have a fire sale, they'll take anything they can get to sell off stock as quickly as possible because they can't afford to keep it. Expect huge drops this year.".

Now it's "developers are slowing down building so they don't have stock to sell, so they absorb 100% of the cost and absorb 100% of any losses in value".

There is no reason, fact or consistent thought being put into some of the theories posted on here. It's just whatever sounds the most dramatic, whatever implies the sky is falling in is put forward as reflecting reality.

PropQueries

Cyrus wrote: »

Well there goes your theory it’ll be mostly social housing eh

Not really. They're only sold 10 so far. They can very easily probably approach the council now to rent them all and hand back the cash to the people who purchased or act in bad faith and not hand back the cash to the people who have already purchased them.

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Yes, you're right, they are slowing down construction, deliberately increasing their costs and delaying getting any sort of return on purpose. :rolleyes:

Some of the stuff posted on here in recent months is genuinely ridiculous.

So, erm, in your 'opinion', how long should it take to build 215 apartments on a relatively small site?

Back in December 2016, "With the piling works close to completion, work has also started on pouring the basement concrete slabs in preparation for the construction of 215 apartments in a pavilion-style development."

Link here: https://www.irishbuildingmagazine.ie/2016/12/14/first-tower-crane-comes-to-lansdowne-place-ballsbridge/

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Not really. They're only sold 10 so far. They can very easily probably approach the council now to rent them all and hand back the cash to the people who purchased or act in bad faith and not hand back the cash to the people who have already purchased them.

That won’t happen , it’s such a fanciful notion that it doesn’t even warrant discussion .