Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

HotDudeLife

thefridge2006 wrote: »

AIB to cut a string of deposit rates to zero and impose negative rates on more firms

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/banking/aib-to-cut-a-string-of-deposit-rates-to-zero-and-impose-negative-rates-on-more-firms-39614046.html


Where are we headed ????

Into the biggest recession in history, buckle up

HotDudeLife

Hubertj wrote: »

I don’t think it’s very fair to call someone a fool if they chose to purchase a house or apartment.

Buying at near all time highs (unless you absolutely have to) when we are staring at a huge economic downturn is very foolish.

hometruths

Tomorrow should be interesting - finally get a chance to see which way the current government is heading. Business as usual or try and actually solve the housing crisis.

Bubbaclaus

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Into the biggest recession in history, buckle up

I can sense the excitement from here. Woop woop

Timing belt

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Into the biggest recession in history, buckle up

How do you associate that headline to the biggest recession ever?

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

While Microsoft employees will be allowed to move across country for remote work, compensation and benefits will change and vary depending on the company’s own geopay scale.

As I said previously working from home permanently will cost people if they relocate to cheaper places .

If they are saving on childcare ,rent/mortgage .transport ,food ,clothes etc. I don't think too many will mind a 10k a year drop

brisan

neutral guy wrote: »

My resume for 2020 property market :

The Covid finally put things on place were they has to be
Who did not sell property for rent will have take loses
Those who was saving for mortgage free life finally will be awarded

The 2021 is the cash buyers time
The 2020 was the last chance for property owners get rid of the property without loses.

I was saving for mortgage free life last 9 years
I was wake up at 5 on morning and was going to bed at 23.00
I do not remember when I last time bought shoes
And I heard to many opinions to believe them

Surely you have to regularly renew your safety footwear for work

smellyoldboot

schmittel wrote: »

Tomorrow should be interesting - finally get a chance to see which way the current government is heading. Business as usual or try and actually solve the housing crisis.

lol. I think we all know the answer to that before tomorrow. They might try "fix" it with a healthy handout of your and my money to property developers. Is this what you were thinking?

hometruths

smellyoldboot wrote: »

lol. I think we all know the answer to that before tomorrow. They might try "fix" it with a healthy handout of your and my money to property developers. Is this what you were thinking?

That's exactly what I expect to see.

wassie

neutral guy wrote: »

My resume for 2020 property market :

The Covid finally put things on place were they has to be
Who did not sell property for rent will have take loses
Those who was saving for mortgage free life finally will be awarded

The 2021 is the cash buyers time
The 2020 was the last chance for property owners get rid of the property without loses.

I was saving for mortgage free life last 9 years
I was wake up at 5 on morning and was going to bed at 23.00
I do not remember when I last time bought shoes
And I heard to many opinions to believe them

brisan wrote: »

Surely you have to regularly renew your safety footwear for work

...and find time for Boards!

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

If they are saving on childcare ,rent/mortgage .transport ,food ,clothes etc. I don't think too many will mind a 10k a year drop

Where has 10k come from ? And again I would ask why come to Ireland in the first place then ?

brisan

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm actually quite surprised how fast this WFH has taken off. The multinationals seem to be making and implementing their decisions very quickly.

I wonder how long the 50% home/50% in office will last? Is it a stepping stone to 100% WFH for many employees until their office leases expire. They're reputable companies and many will probably honour their leases until the next lease break.

A good analysis would be a study of when the majority of these lease break clauses come into effect. It's the office tenants decisions at that time that will show where the WFH phenomenon is really heading.

Edit: Just to add. How do pension funds and other large investors now value any potential investments in commercial real estate or build to rent apartment schemes? It's kind of similar to what happened in the United States last time. Wasn't that down to investors not being able to value the underlying assets that most of the loans were secured on?

Will they all just stop investing until there's more clarity?

I work in a production factory
While most of the office staff can WFH the rest of us cant
We are part of a large multinational in the top 3 of our field and make big profits (although not on paper )every year
The costs involved in social distancing and cleaning are massive even for a company like ours
Our factory initially held over 900 (1960)now accommodates 300 since 2016 so plenty of room
Companies are petrified of Covid and its consequences for its workforce not to mention possible insurance claims
So that amongst other issues (less office space .less middle management etc ) are the reasons WFH is popular

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

I work in a production factory
While most of the office staff can WFH the rest of us cant
We are part of a large multinational in the top 3 of our field and make big profits (although not on paper )every year
The costs involved in social distancing and cleaning are massive even for a company like ours
Our factory initially held over 900 (1960)now accommodates 300 since 2016 so plenty of room
Companies are petrified of Covid and its consequences for its workforce not to mention possible insurance claims
So that amongst other issues (less office space .less middle management etc ) are the reasons WFH is popular

What do you mean by make big profits but not on paper ?

Dwarf.Shortage

Does anyone expect anything tomorrow beyond an extension of the higher new build HTB cap and money being made available for social housing? A more modest HTB for existing builds would be nice, a lot of the new builds are still extremely expensive for a FTB.

L1011

neutral_guy will not be replying on this thread so please stop replying to him

TheSheriff

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Does anyone expect anything tomorrow beyond an extension of the higher new build HTB cap and money being made available for social housing? A more modest HTB for existing builds would be nice, a lot of the new builds are still extremely expensive for a FTB.

I can't see this, and wouldn't want to tbh; if for instance a 10k or 20k scheme was announced tomorrow you'd see asking prices increase overnight.

Also we would likely have heard leaks of it by this stage.

Smouse156

TheSheriff wrote: »

I can't see this, and wouldn't want to tbh; if for instance a 10k or 20k scheme was announced tomorrow you'd see asking prices increase overnight.

Also we would likely have heard leaks of it by this stage.

Yes inflating overpriced property further would be a disaster! It should only apply to new builds to increase supply

Dwarf.Shortage

I don't know that it's as clear cut as 20k htb on existing stock -> 20k price increases across the board. There would be some increases sure, particularly in very competitive parts of the market. But I do think it would improve things materially for a FTB, even net of the small increases it might cause.

Browney7

TheSheriff wrote: »

I can't see this, and wouldn't want to tbh; if for instance a 10k or 20k scheme was announced tomorrow you'd see asking prices increase overnight.

Also we would likely have heard leaks of it by this stage.

The shared ownership scheme has been mooted over the past few weeks which would be quite inflationary from a price perspective

smellyoldboot

State directly building/funding houses for both social and affordable housing on a decent scale and effectively removing the bottom rung of the market and forcing the remaining middle into competition is the only thing that will ease the housing crisis.

It's not happening. Both FF and FG are ideologically opposed to falling property prices. More bungs for developers, councils paying ridiculous money for private houses and mealy mouthed platitudes will be the outcome.

Timing belt

Interesting read that shows the risks in the residential housing across Europe.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/financial-stability/fsr/special/html/ecb.fsrart202005_01~762d09d7a2.en.html#toc1

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

What do you mean by make big profits but not on paper ?

Conversion
Head office supplies all the materials and a budget for wages insurance maintenance etc and we convert raw materials into finished product and send it head office for sale for free
So in the long run we make no profit as we receive no sales
Head office is in Zurich
The cheaper your conversion costs the more product you will be asked to make

wassie

Smouse156 wrote: »

Yes inflating overpriced property further would be a disaster! It should only apply to new builds to increase supply

HTB is not just about FTB. The reason it applies to new builds is to also stimulate the building industry. Its not just property developers who benefit - its a whole industry including trades, suppliers, consultants & engineers, real estate, financiers marketing etc.

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

Where has 10k come from ? And again I would ask why come to Ireland in the first place then ?

10k off the top of my head
My nephew and his wife both work in Financial sector and both are working from home
They are saving at least 15 k a year in childcare , transport costs , lunches , clothes etc
They also have more time with their child and a shorter working week and a better quality of living
If they lost 10k each that’s 10k gross so still much better off
Multinationals will come for the tax breaks and the educated workforce that speak English as a first language

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

Conversion
Head office supplies all the materials and a budget for wages insurance maintenance etc and we convert raw materials into finished product and send it head office for sale for free
So in the long run we make no profit as we receive no sales
Head office is in Zurich
The cheaper your conversion costs the more product you will be asked to make

if there is a legal entity involved you'll find there will be a profit, some transfer pricing arrangement, no tax authority would stand for a legal entity in its jurisdiction selling a product for free for profits to be taxed elsewhere.

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

10k off the top of my head
My nephew and his wife both work in Financial sector and both are working from home
They are saving at least 15 k a year in childcare , transport costs , lunches , clothes etc
They also have more time with their child and a shorter working week and a better quality of living
If they lost 10k each that’s 10k gross so still much better off
Multinationals will come for the tax breaks and the educated workforce that speak English as a first language

you are misunderstanding what i was responding to, the other poster was referring to non natonals returning home to their own country, i argued if that happens they will be paid a salary thats reflective of rates there no here. He said they may be better off, and my qn was if thats the case, why would that person have come here in the first place.

As for irish people wfh saving money, im not sure how childcare gets cheaper, mine certainly hasnt, i save money on discrectionary spends as i dont buy as many lunches out, i cant see how i need to wear any less clothes, if anything my wife is buying more clothes, and we both took public transport so no massive transport saving.

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

if there is a legal entity involved you'll find there will be a profit, some transfer pricing arrangement, no tax authority would stand for a legal entity in its jurisdiction selling a product for free for profits to be taxed elsewhere.

That’s how all the big boys operate
Why do apple funnel all their European profits to Ireland

wassie

Cyrus wrote: »

you are misunderstanding what i was responding to, the other poster was referring to non natonals returning home to their own country, i argued if that happens they will be paid a salary thats reflective of rates there no here. He said they may be better off, and my qn was if thats the case, why would that person have come here in the first place.

As for irish people wfh saving money, im not sure how childcare gets cheaper, mine certainly hasnt, i save money on discrectionary spends as i dont buy as many lunches out, i cant see how i need to wear any less clothes, if anything my wife is buying more clothes, and we both took public transport so no massive transport saving.

You hit the nail on the head - those households with high discretionary spends pre-covid who are now WFH are the ones saving the cash - typically a younger couple with no children who are FHB. Families have significantly higher fixed costs and as such wont be saving anywhere near as much.

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

you are misunderstanding what i was responding to, the other poster was referring to non natonals returning home to their own country, i argued if that happens they will be paid a salary thats reflective of rates there no here. He said they may be better off, and my qn was if thats the case, why would that person have come here in the first place.

As for irish people wfh saving money, im not sure how childcare gets cheaper, mine certainly hasnt, i save money on discrectionary spends as i dont buy as many lunches out, i cant see how i need to wear any less clothes, if anything my wife is buying more clothes, and we both took public transport so no massive transport saving.

Childcare gets cheaper as it disappears
Nephew drops the child to school and picks him up
Before it was to a childminder at 8 and picked up at 6 with the child minder doing the school runs
They both work around it
Transport at least 30 a week PP on leap card
No work clothes required
Most women I know would have a separate wardrobe of work clothes which would be updated regularly

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

That’s how all the big boys operate
Why do apple funnel all their European profits to Ireland

there will still be transfer pricing arrangements.