Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

KnowingWind wrote: »

when all the sheep are saying property will go up forever and never drop

I must have missed that post.

fliball123

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Patience my friend, play the long game. This house of cards won't be standing much longer, huge crash coming in 2021-2022.

yawn people have been saying that since Feb in a few months its going to hit yadda yadda..play the long game if you want but the budget will keep things ticking along no sign of price drops

KennisWhale

irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2021-main-points-up-to-5-000-a-week-for-covid-hit-firms-hospitality-vat-rate-cut-1.4379526?mode=amp

Spending of 2.4 billion in 2021 will support an additional 15,000 Housing Assistance Payment tenancies and 800 Rental Accommodation Scheme tenancies.

This signals to me an artificially inflated rental market when the State is the largest tenant and directly competes on such a huge scale with individuals.

Are those numbers correct? An "additional" 15,800 tenancies to how many and 2.4bn being funnelled into the pockets of private landlords from the State!? Mind-boggling and catastrophically high figures.

calfmuscle

enricoh wrote: »

Chances are you were outbid by taxpayers money for social housing on some of them. If u can't beat them, join them!

I'll be living in a cemetery sooner.

Timing belt

fliball123 wrote: »

yawn people have been saying that since Feb in a few months its going to hit yadda yadda..play the long game if you want but the budget will keep things ticking along no sign of price drops

The first time we will get a chance to see what is ahead in the property market is when the banks release there Q3 earnings at the end of the month. That will tell the level of arrears and the impact it will have on the banks future lending.

Edit: Extract from S&P report on banks Sept 2020

"Provisioning charges continue to vary widely from bank to bank. Through June, asset quality
metrics revealed only modest evidence of deterioration, as we gather that provisioning is guided
mostly by management teams’ expectations of future loan performance. Irish, U.K., and Dutch
banks, for example, seemed to have front-loaded much more provisions than others. Those that
did not front-load as much will likely continue recording sizable provisions through into 2021."

MacronvFrugals

KennisWhale wrote: »

irishtimes.com/business/economy/budget-2021-main-points-up-to-5-000-a-week-for-covid-hit-firms-hospitality-vat-rate-cut-1.4379526?mode=amp



This signals to me an artificially inflated rental market when the State is the largest tenant and directly competes on such a huge scale with individuals.

Are those numbers correct? An "additional" 15,800 tenancies to how many and 2.4bn being funnelled into the pockets of private landlords from the State!? Mind-boggling and catastrophically high figures.

Do you know the total number of hap tenancies?

Springy Turf

Timing belt wrote: »

The first time we will get a chance to see what is ahead in the property market is when the banks release there Q3 earnings at the end of the month. That will tell the level of arrears and the impact it will have on the banks future lending.

We just got a new lender in the country with lower interest rates. Banks have to pay to keep money on deposit. For sure the banks might lower their risk profile, but already with our mortgage lending rules there is a regulatory limit on mortgage sizes against income.

Timing belt

Springy Turf wrote: »

We just got a new lender in the country with lower interest rates. Banks have to pay to keep money on deposit. For sure the banks might lower their risk profile, but already with our mortgage lending rules there is a regulatory limit on mortgage sizes against income.

I am not talking about the banks lending more I'm talking about them lending less if arrears eat into there capital and limit there ability to lend.

KennisWhale

MacronvFrugals wrote: »

Do you know the total number of hap tenancies?

irishtimes.com/news/environment/housing-assistance-scheme-will-breach-1bn-mark-next-month-1.4131081

This was an article from the start of the year. I'm not sure if it is being deliberately obtuse or if it is the IT's particularly awful standard of journalism these days but I cannot garner the total number of Hap tenancies from the article despite my perception indicating that it can be extrapolated from the article. 52,000, is that what it provides?

silver2020

KnowingWind wrote: »

Just remember guys.

Just about when all the sheep are saying property will go up forever and never drop...is when it drops.

The drops are quick, all signs are in.

been hearing that so often and in reality it has only happened once in the past 30 years and that because the world had gone crazy on a property and lending ponzi scheme and no-one shouted stop til the guy at the bottom said he wanted his money back.

Cheap and easy credit with few question asked - that was the mode of operation almost WORLDWIDE. All asset classes collapsed almost overnight.

That is not happening these days. Some prices are frothy, some are great value (I bought a holiday home investment recently that was 75% below the price some fool bought in 2006 - I'll get 20% return by letting it on airbnb and be able to use it frequently)

Decent sized 3 beds are becoming available in Dublin for 300k - that's affordable for many. A 30 year 275k mortgage will be €1100 a month. You can fix it for 10 years for under €1150, or be sensible and go for 25 years @ €1275 a month

There is no deep recession even on the horizon

silver2020

Timing belt wrote: »

The first time we will get a chance to see what is ahead in the property market is when the banks release there Q3 earnings at the end of the month. That will tell the level of arrears and the impact it will have on the banks future lending.

Some of the glass half empty crowd will be very disappointed. No discernible increase in arrears
https://www.lawsociety.ie/gazette/top-stories/home-loan-arrears-decreased-after-covid-payment-breaks/

KennisWhale

silver2020 wrote: »

been hearing that so often and in reality it has only happened once in the past 30 years and that because the world had gone crazy on a property and lending ponzi scheme and no-one shouted stop til the guy at the bottom said he wanted his money back.

Cheap and easy credit with few question asked - that was the mode of operation almost WORLDWIDE. All asset classes collapsed almost overnight.

That is not happening these days . Some prices are frothy, some are great value (I bought a holiday home investment recently that was 75% below the price some fool bought in 2006 - I'll get 20% return by letting it on airbnb and be able to use it frequently)

Decent sized 3 beds are becoming available in Dublin for 300k - that's affordable for many. A 30 year 275k mortgage will be €1100 a month. You can fix it for 10 years for under €1150, or be sensible and go for 25 years @ €1275 a month

There is no deep recession even on the horizon

Unfortunately, the above is not true with respect to the corporate bond market and QE programmes of central banks combined with the zero interest rate environment meaning there is plenty of cheap and easy credit available which has blown up asset prices and increased debt significantly since 2008. Asset valuations across classes have climbed significantly in the past 10 years, we are overdue some form of correction but to gauge those most exposed, look at those highly leveraged and those dependent indirectly on those entities.

Timing belt

silver2020 wrote: »

been hearing that so often and in reality it has only happened once in the past 30 years and that because the world had gone crazy on a property and lending ponzi scheme and no-one shouted stop til the guy at the bottom said he wanted his money back.

Cheap and easy credit with few question asked - that was the mode of operation almost WORLDWIDE. All asset classes collapsed almost overnight.

The issue may not be in the property sector this time around but there has never been as cheap or easy credit in the European market. The only reason it didn't impact property was because of the loan to income ratios imposed by the central bank. Have a look at all the other property markets across Europe (Excluding spain, italy etc)

Also you didn't notice all asset classes nearly collapsed at the same time earlier in the year before central banks jumped in.

Timing belt

silver2020 wrote: »

Some of the glass half empty crowd will be very disappointed. No discernible increase in arrears
https://www.lawsociety.ie/gazette/top-stories/home-loan-arrears-decreased-after-covid-payment-breaks/

Yes they think that Irish banks have already thrown the kitchen sink at it when they booked there provisions earlier in the year but the longer Covid goes on the more defaults there will be and not just in personal individuals. I expect a few more big name companies to get into difficulty when they try to refinance debt and possibly go insolvent if we have another extended lockdown.

Springy Turf

Public Service Post:

If someone refers to people who disagree with them as sheep, or perhaps just even just invent some strawmen and call them sheep, don't waste your time engaging with them.

cubatahavana

I just don’t get the hate for new build. I personally love them. Good specs, warm, energy efficient, good size and layout...

I can understand some people not wanting them, but it seems to be the norm and it baffles me. The argument against social housing doesn’t add up. Have a look at the pobal maps regarding deprivation indexes. Most small areas in 2016 have a good bit of social into them, no matter location.

https://maps.pobal.ie/WebApps/DeprivationIndices/index.html

tobsey

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Patience my friend, play the long game. This house of cards won't be standing much longer, huge crash coming in 2021-2022.

And the person you quoted won’t get a mortgage from any bank if that happens. How will a huge crash help them?

Dwarf.Shortage

silver2020 wrote: »

been hearing that so often and in reality it has only happened once in the past 30 years and that because the world had gone crazy on a property and lending ponzi scheme and no-one shouted stop til the guy at the bottom said he wanted his money back.

Cheap and easy credit with few question asked - that was the mode of operation almost WORLDWIDE. All asset classes collapsed almost overnight.

That is not happening these days. Some prices are frothy, some are great value (I bought a holiday home investment recently that was 75% below the price some fool bought in 2006 - I'll get 20% return by letting it on airbnb and be able to use it frequently)

Decent sized 3 beds are becoming available in Dublin for 300k - that's affordable for many. A 30 year 275k mortgage will be €1100 a month. You can fix it for 10 years for under €1150, or be sensible and go for 25 years @ €1275 a month

There is no deep recession even on the horizon

Examples?

943

cubatahavana wrote: »

I just don’t get the hate for new build. I personally love them. Good specs, warm, energy efficient, good size and layout...

I can understand some people not wanting them, but it seems to be the norm and it baffles me.

https://maps.pobal.ie/WebApps/DeprivationIndices/index.html

With new builds you get help to buy which is great, but you're also looking at several thousands added to the price. Not everyone has the 3.5 LTI for new builds even with the help with deposit. A second hand house while requiring saving, probably half the deposit amount of a new build

Majority of FTB saving to buy are also paying high rents.... even with help to buy you have to save a good chunk of that new build deposit if your income isn't high in the first place. So either way you are breaking your back saving. Except, you will get a LTI mortgage for a second hand 150k house that you wouldn't get for a new build. There are obviously exceptions and it is clearly working for some who have the income. It is a catch 22.

But a lot dont - if they did the deposit would be less of an issue in the first place. That and as above, there just arent many new developments in some areas..

At least that's my anecdotal experience and that of people my age group, but I could be totally off the mark and missing something too.

silver2020

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Examples?

330k for 1250 sq ft 3 bed in Newcastle.
https://www.cairnhomes.com/new-homes/graydon/

290k for large 3 bed in Balbriggan
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/taylor-hill-balbriggan-county-dublin/4197010

Springy Turf

The main issue I have with new builds I have seen is that all the houses are completely on top of each other, usually no front garden, and usually on quite a small plot of land.

Yes, you are getting really nicely laid out houses with good floor space and great thermal efficiency, and that definitely has a lot of appeal, but (in Dublin anyway), the most expensive thing is the land. With a new build, you are getting a lot less land for your money.

cubatahavana

943 wrote: »

With new builds you get help to buy which is great, but you're also looking at several thousands added to the price. Not everyone has the 3.5 LTI for new builds even with the help with deposit. A second hand house while requiring saving, probably half the deposit amount of a new build

Majority of FTB saving to buy are also paying high rents.... even with help to buy you have to save a good chunk of that new build deposit if your income isn't high in the first place. So either way you are breaking your back saving. Except, you will get a LTI mortgage for a second hand 150k house that you wouldn't get for a new build. There are obviously exceptions and it is clearly working for some who have the income. It is a catch 22.

But a lot dont - if they did the deposit would be less of an issue in the first place. That and as above, there just arent many new developments in some areas..

At least that's my anecdotal experience and that of people my age group, but I could be totally off the mark and missing something too.

I see your point. I was referring at people that say that they’d never buy in a new build. I can understand that new build can be more expensive for FTB

cubatahavana

Springy Turf wrote: »

The main issue I have with new builds I have seen is that all the houses are completely on top of each other, usually no front garden, and usually on quite a small plot of land.

Yes, you are getting really nicely laid out houses with good floor space and great thermal efficiency, and that definitely has a lot of appeal, but (in Dublin anyway), the most expensive thing is the land. With a new build, you are getting a lot less land for your money.

Well put. Me personally, I don’t care as much about the land as about the size of the house, but I can see people that would rather have a huge garden. Usually those don’t come cheap, though

943

cubatahavana wrote: »

I see your point. I was referring at people that say that they’d never buy in a new build. I can understand that new build can be more expensive for FTB

Yeah to be honest in our case if all that was irrelevant, new builds are generally a fantastic standard. And long term you will save, ie little improvements and good energy rating. It's just the starting off for ftb that makes it a bit harder.

Dwarf.Shortage

silver2020 wrote: »

330k for 1250 sq ft 3 bed in Newcastle.
https://www.cairnhomes.com/new-homes/graydon/

290k for large 3 bed in Balbriggan
https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/taylor-hill-balbriggan-county-dublin/4197010

Though in County Dublin these are both commuter belt competitors in my book, you'd find it easier to get to city centre from Leixlip or Celbridge.

I have noticed Kinsealy is very competitive price wise, this in particular caught my eye https://touch.daft.ie/for-sale/end-of-terrace-house-20-drynam-drive-drynam-hall-kinsealy-co-dublin/2610519

Less than 10km from city centre, what am I missing? Kinsealy isn't particularly rough from what I have heard.

OwlsZat

Huge garden and huge new build seem to come in about equal in cost. Two totally differnt buyers.

Idbatterim

The lack of supply is mental, particularly with covid. Then you have the abysmal failure for the staye to build its own housing. The figures are so bad, that they are just going to buy up more and more extremely limited newly develooed very scare housing stock...

cubatahavana

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Though in County Dublin these are both commuter belt competitors in my book, you'd find it easier to get to city centre from Leixlip or Celbridge.

I have noticed Kinsealy is very competitive price wise, this in particular caught my eye https://touch.daft.ie/for-sale/end-of-terrace-house-20-drynam-drive-drynam-hall-kinsealy-co-dublin/2610519

Less than 10km from city centre, what am I missing? Kinsealy isn't particularly rough from what I have heard.

It’s a little bit in the middle of nowhere, even though only 10km to center. Nice new houses, but traffic on the malahide road can and will be a nightmare to get into town

cubatahavana

cubatahavana wrote: »

It’s a little bit in the middle of nowhere, even though only 10km to center. Nice new houses, but traffic on the malahide road can and will be a nightmare to get into town

Don’t mind me, those houses are near enough the N1

tobsey

cubatahavana wrote: »

Don’t mind me, those houses are near enough the N1

Swords express will have you at the Three arena within 30 mins of leaving the house too.