Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

amount of people on the the state support has dropped massively

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0720/1154384-numbers-on-pup-fall-by-almost-50-since-peak/

There are still 950,000 people dependent on the state for their income.
This is from a total workforce of 2,400,000
https://www.google.com/search?q=republic+of+ireland+workforce+numbers+2019&rlz=1C1GCEB_enGB889GB889&oq=REPUBLIC+OF+IRELAND+WORKFORCE+NUMBERS+&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j33.14190j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
So over 39% of the total workforce dependent on the state for their wages
How many will leave PUP AND go on TWSS

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

There are still 950,000 people dependent on the state for their income.
This is from a total workforce of 2,400,000
https://www.google.com/search?q=republic+of+ireland+workforce+numbers+2019&rlz=1C1GCEB_enGB889GB889&oq=REPUBLIC+OF+IRELAND+WORKFORCE+NUMBERS+&aqs=chrome.1.69i57j33.14190j0j8&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
So over 39% of the total workforce dependent on the state for their wages
How many will leave PUP AND go on TWSS

i dont foresee the 300k+ plus civil servants in that total having an issue getting a mortgage?

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

i dont foresee the 300k+ plus civil servants in that total having an issue getting a mortgage?

I don't see those who already having a mortgage having an issue either
I wont have an issue because I don't need one but a lot of those 950,000 will need a mortgage and are being stopped from getting one

Cyrus

brisan wrote: »

I don't see those who already having a mortgage having an issue either
I wont have an issue because I don't need one but a lot of those 950,000 will need a mortgage and are being stopped from getting one

but there isnt 950,000 if 300,000 are civil servants, and havent the banks said they rowed back on the no mortgages if on state support schemes?

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0701/1150842-covid-aib-mortgage/

combat14

brisan wrote: »

My issue is that a record low of Mortgage approvals in April and May and likely to continue that trend considering banks will not lend to those on PUP and TWSS or grant exemptions it will be the builders who will take this and pocket it .
A lot of FTB will be excluded because of a lack of approval re their mortgage

at least if they extended the scheme till summer 2021 it would make more sense

taking out august (summer) and December (xmas) it really leaves FTBs little time to get everything in order

Cyrus

combat14 wrote: »

at least if they extended the scheme till summer 2021 it would make more sense

taking out august (summer) and December (xmas) it really leaves FTBs little time to get everything in order

the chances are that they will extend it

they have a habit of extending these things.

Greyian

Cyrus wrote: »

but there isnt 950,000 if 300,000 are civil servants, and havent the banks said they rowed back on the no mortgages if on state support schemes?

The 950,000 doesn't include civil servants.

It is made up of 220,000 unemployed people, 313,800 on the PUP and 415,000 on the TWSS.

Pre-Covid, we had ~119,000 unemployed people (source: CSO), with no-one on PUP or TWSS.

Close to 1 in every 3 people who were working away ordinarily in February 2020 are now in a position where they won't qualify for a mortgage currently.


It is worth nothing though, that the 220,000 people mentioned as unemployed in the RTE article doesn't match with the CSO figure for June 2020, so there is some kind of discrepancy there.

Cyrus

Greyian wrote: »

The 950,000 doesn't include civil servants.

It is made up of 220,000 unemployed people, 313,800 on the PUP and 415,000 on the TWSS.

Pre-Covid, we had ~119,000 unemployed people (source: CSO), with no-one on PUP or TWSS.

Close to 1 in every 3 people who were working away ordinarily in February 2020 are now in a position where they won't qualify for a mortgage currently.


It is worth nothing though, that the 220,000 people mentioned as unemployed in the RTE article doesn't match with the CSO figure for June 2020, so there is some kind of discrepancy there.

apologies

i assume when he said dependent on the state for their income he included civil servants.

anyway the banks have removed the blanket ban on mortgages for those in receipt of state support.

Thierry12

Greyian wrote: »

The 950,000 doesn't include civil servants.

It is made up of 220,000 unemployed people, 313,800 on the PUP and 415,000 on the TWSS.

Pre-Covid, we had ~119,000 unemployed people (source: CSO), with no-one on PUP or TWSS.

Close to 1 in every 3 people who were working away ordinarily in February 2020 are now in a position where they won't qualify for a mortgage currently.


It is worth nothing though, that the 220,000 people mentioned as unemployed in the RTE article doesn't match with the CSO figure for June 2020, so there is some kind of discrepancy there.

Nearly a million are on some kind of government assistance

Wow

Mortgage approvals will be at new low's soon

RANIA

House prices in West Galway city are gone loopy. Seamount detached big house near ocean went last year for 725 now semis in estates are hitting the 700k mark. Ive never seen houses in these categories go so high, is it post covid panic buying or will the precedence be made now and this is the new normal price??

Greyian

Cyrus wrote: »

apologies

i assume when he said dependent on the state for their income he included civil servants.

anyway the banks have removed the blanket ban on mortgages for those in receipt of state support.

They are no longer ignoring all applications, but that doesn't mean they are approving them.
And where they are approving applications, you can be sure that the vast, vast, vast majority would still be declined at drawdown if they are on the TWSS.

Cyrus

Greyian wrote: »

They are no longer ignoring all applications, but that doesn't mean they are approving them.
And where they are approving applications, you can be sure that the vast, vast, vast majority would still be declined at drawdown if they are on the TWSS.

Who knows the statistics will bear that out in time.

Computer Science Student

Has anyone noticed it is almost impossible to get a viewing nowadays? I get that it is a little less convenient to arrange viewings when it has to be one at a time, but it is almost like they don't want us to view some of these properties. Emails going unanswered left right and center. I find it bizarre to not give someone that is showing interest your attention when are you are talking about selling a 200k+ asset.

Cyrus

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Has anyone noticed it is almost impossible to get a viewing nowadays? I get that it is a little less convenient to arrange viewings when it has to be one at a time, but it is almost like they don't want us to view some of these properties. Emails going unanswered left right and center. I find it bizarre to not give someone that is showing interest your attention when are you are talking about selling a 200k+ asset.

Estate agents and car salespeople are a breed apart in my experience, email might as well be carrier pigeon .

brisan

Cyrus wrote: »

but there isnt 950,000 if 300,000 are civil servants, and havent the banks said they rowed back on the no mortgages if on state support schemes?

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0701/1150842-covid-aib-mortgage/

That 950000 thousands does not include civil servants #
it is the amount of people excluding the civil servants who are on PUP,TWSS or unemployment benefit
I got the figures from the article YOU posted

When the two are combined, 534,700 people are still entirely dependent on the state for their income.

A further 415,000 are having their earnings subsidised by the state through the Temporary Wage Subsidy Scheme - bringing the total number of those fully or partially dependent on the state for their income to 949,700.

brisan

Greyian wrote: »

The 950,000 doesn't include civil servants.

It is made up of 220,000 unemployed people, 313,800 on the PUP and 415,000 on the TWSS.

Pre-Covid, we had ~119,000 unemployed people (source: CSO), with no-one on PUP or TWSS.

Close to 1 in every 3 people who were working away ordinarily in February 2020 are now in a position where they won't qualify for a mortgage currently.


It is worth nothing though, that the 220,000 people mentioned as unemployed in the RTE article doesn't match with the CSO figure for June 2020, so there is some kind of discrepancy there.

People who have been laid off by their employer due to the pandemic even though the business is still running

Assetbacked

In the US they have a 20% deposit rule for mortgages. We are very much aligned with the US in terms of property as the crash after 2008 showed but also as you see with our policy to get the US PE investors into the real estate market.

Today US mortgage rates have hit a record low

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/24/mortgage-rates-just-hit-another-record-low.html

Dead cat bounce/eye of the storm.

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

In the US they have a 20% deposit rule for mortgages. We are very much aligned with the US in terms of property as the crash after 2008 showed but also as you see with our policy to get the US PE investors into the real estate market.

Today US mortgage rates have hit a record low

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/24/mortgage-rates-just-hit-another-record-low.html

Dead cat bounce/eye of the storm.

My brother lives in Boston and is a plumber. There has been a housing boom in Massachusetts for the last few years. He said quite a bit of the delay driven by the need to replace older housing stock that hasn’t aged well.
He said property taxes and land values vary greatly from state to state which is a factor. This leads to affordability issues in some areas. Another problem is the clamp down on immigration has led to a shortage of tradesmen which was constricting supply.

Wanderer78

Surely this significant drop in new mortgages, could severally destabilise the financial sector? I was only thinking this lately, my gut is telling me this is the main reason for keeping rates high, as the banks are slowly losing confidence

combat14

3rd building site closed In dublin.. how will we get schools and the economy going at this rate...

JamesMason

combat14 wrote: »

3rd building site closed In dublin.. how will we get schools and the economy going at this rate...

Give it a month after all the tourists come back from their essential trips to Spain...then the SHTF

Hubertj

combat14 wrote: »

3rd building site closed In dublin.. how will we get schools and the economy going at this rate...

Only thing that will stop schools opening is unions looking for more money.

Assetbacked

combat14 wrote: »

3rd building site closed In dublin.. how will we get schools and the economy going at this rate...

It's open again next week.

Mic 1972

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Surely this significant drop in new mortgages, could severally destabilise the financial sector? I was only thinking this lately, my gut is telling me this is the main reason for keeping rates high, as the banks are slowly losing confidence

Sellers aren't loosing confidence for sure as asking prices are still through the roof

cubatahavana

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Has anyone noticed it is almost impossible to get a viewing nowadays? I get that it is a little less convenient to arrange viewings when it has to be one at a time, but it is almost like they don't want us to view some of these properties. Emails going unanswered left right and center. I find it bizarre to not give someone that is showing interest your attention when are you are talking about selling a 200k+ asset.

It is really difficult to organize more than 4-6 viewings per week, and that's only if you're lucky and have mortgage approval in place.

Saw a couple of houses this week that were in disastrous state inside and still asking for nearly 700k with ratings lower than D both of them. How do they think they'll sell when new builds with similar sqm and MUCH better rating are selling for at least 50k less in the area and with, is beyond my comprehension.

I'm 99% sure I'll be getting a new build. 10 years structural insurance, very good rating and no smell of piss inside

JJJackal

cubatahavana wrote: »

It is really difficult to organize more than 4-6 viewings per week, and that's only if you're lucky and have mortgage approval in place.

Saw a couple of houses this week that were in disastrous state inside and still asking for nearly 700k with ratings lower than D both of them. How do they think they'll sell when new builds with similar sqm and MUCH better rating are selling for at least 50k less in the area and with, is beyond my comprehension.

I'm 99% sure I'll be getting a new build. 10 years structural insurance, very good rating and no smell of piss inside

Lots of old builds have bigger gardens, off street parking, in Dublin they can be Georgian or Edwardian or some fancy old red brick. Plus the area the older house is in. Often less neighbours. Established neighbourhood etc

cubatahavana

JJJackal wrote: »

Lots of old builds have bigger gardens, off street parking, in Dublin they can be Georgian or Edwardian or some fancy old red brick. Plus the area the older house is in. Often less neighbours. Established neighbourhood etc

I understand, but some of these homes carry a renovation cost of 100k on top of the price. I guess it's not for me if I can buy a much more energy efficient home for less money. I don't care too much about the garden size. I understand that that's just my opinion

JJJackal

cubatahavana wrote: »

I understand, but some of these homes carry a renovation cost of 100k on top of the price. I guess it's not for me if I can buy a much more energy efficient home for less money. I don't care too much about the garden size. I understand that that's just my opinion

I dont think you always see the difference in price for the interior and insulation in ireland

hometruths

HTB pushes up prices according to Eoin O Broin.

Sinn Féin housing spokesperson Eoin Ó Broin told Newstalk that prices of some properties jumped €10,000 overnight after the announcement.

“We know that Help-to-Buy inflates property prices and developers simply pocket the extra money,” he said.

“Therefore, first-time buyers don’t get any benefit from these schemes whatsoever. In fact, all it serves to do is push up the price, make it more expensive to get on the property ladder and it is a terrible waste of taxpayers’ money.”

https://www.newstalk.com/news/help-buy-house-prices-1051647

Who'd have thought it?

RANIA

Why are the prices gone so high? Its definitely a sellers market right now, I wonder will prices drop back to pre corona prices any time soon?