Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Bubbaclaus

The Journal have interpreted the data the other way to the Irish Times:


Irish house prices rise again following slight decline during Covid-19 lockdown https://jrnl.ie/5232967

Billythekid19

PropQueries wrote: »

As are many civil servants:

"Simon Coveney has said there could be as many people in his department on the Working Family Payment as in the whole of the Defence Forces."

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/coveney-many-civil-servants-in-my-department-are-on-family-income-top-up-like-members-of-defence-forces-39601376.html

The question is how long the state can continue borrowing money to keep topping up wages and paying relatively high salaries to many of our civil and public sector workers.

The state appears to have decided that housing costs should be alligned to the wages that are paid to the 229,957 people who work for multinationals in Ireland (most I would assume are already home owners). They then borrow money year in, year out to try provide similar salaries to the civil and public sector workers.

It's an insane strategy that will (not probably) end in tears for the housing market.

I dont see how it will end in tears. We are the only EU country that has a fluent English population, this coupled with our favourable tax rate is the main reason MNC's are happy to remain

Balluba

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

The Journal have interpreted the data the other way to the Irish Times:


Irish house prices rise again following slight decline during Covid-19 lockdown https://jrnl.ie/5232967

Muireann Duffy in the business section of Breakingnews.ie today goes with the headline:

COVID 19 IMPACTING HOUSING MARKET AS PROPERTY PRICES FALL

Bass Reeves

I would not call the house price index a 0.6%fall over 12 months a decrease in prices just as I would not call 0.1-0.2% rise in the last 3 months a rise in prices. This would be in the margin of error for house type and condition sales. My reading is the market is stable at present

Balluba

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I would not call the house price index a 0.6%fall over 12 months a decrease in prices just as I would not call 0.1-2% rise in the last 3 months a rise in prices. This would be in the margin of error for house type and condition sales. My reading is the market is stable at present

There is a marked contrast though between the 0.6% fall over the last 12 months when compared with the 1.9% increase for the previous 12 months.

Bass Reeves

Balluba wrote: »

There is a marked contrast though between the 0.6% fall over the last 12 months when compared with the 1.9% increase for the previous 12 months.

2.5%swing in 24 months and a pandemic lockdown in between. Prices stable or tending to very marginally grow over last 3 months since lockdown. Grow up.

Balluba

Bass Reeves wrote: »

2.5%swing in 24 months and a pandemic lockdown in between. Prices stable or tending to very marginally grow over last 3 months since lockdown. Grow up.

I find your ‘ grow up ‘ comment very insulting.

KennisWhale

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

The Journal have interpreted the data the other way to the Irish Times:


Irish house prices rise again following slight decline during Covid-19 lockdown https://jrnl.ie/5232967

The Journal is also affiliated with Daft.ie.

They've been flip-flopping on their reports the past few years, unable to settle on one particular data set to present. Quite dubious, particularly when you see they have also not published anything since the July 2020 report (published mid/late August).

https://www.daft.ie/report

Graham

aren't the Daft reports generally a quarterly thing?

Timing belt

House prices are going to be affected by a recession as people put of decisions as they are unsure about future outcomes. All that the reports in the media point to is that there is sufficient demand in Ireland to keep prices at the level they are at (give 5% either way). Unless there is financial crash or an increase in supply this will not change.

donnaille

Graham wrote: »

aren't the Daft reports generally a quarterly thing?

Yes, that's my understanding too.

three putt

PropQueries wrote: »

That's true. A couple, both on the minimum wage in Ireland could very easily afford the monthly repayments on a 25 year mortgage for many standard three-bed semis outside the major cities. Assuming they could get mortgage approval.

So property prices are not inflated?
If a couple on the minimum wage in Ireland could easily afford a 3-bed semi.

KennisWhale

Graham wrote: »

aren't the Daft reports generally a quarterly thing?

Have a look at the different ways they have reported in recent years. They did a quarterly report on purchasing and renting separately which was replaced with a joint housing report this year due to be published monthly (and was so published May, June and July). However, there has been neither a monthly housing report since the July report nor any other type of report in over 2 months.

Graham

Sounds like they've gone back to quarterly

KennisWhale

Graham wrote: »

Sounds like they've gone back to quarterly

I'm not sure as there would presumably be a Q2 report in that case.

It's peculiar, particularly when they have been attempting with the monthly reports to present price increases in their reports on the data they have.

nerrad01

Balluba wrote: »

There is a marked contrast though between the 0.6% fall over the last 12 months when compared with the 1.9% increase for the previous 12 months.

come on you cant call that a marked contrast, all the pandemic has done is thankfully stop the prices continuing to rise, the housing market is an absolute disaster...but it was only going to get worse

fliball123

Timing belt wrote: »

House prices are going to be affected by a recession as people put of decisions as they are unsure about future outcomes. All that the reports in the media point to is that there is sufficient demand in Ireland to keep prices at the level they are at (give 5% either way). Unless there is financial crash or an increase in supply this will not change.

Well with the budget just passed there will be no crash for the next 6 to 12 months

combat14

house prices are almost back to crazy celtic tiger boom levels (only 18% off) and rents here are now insane..

FF/FG will have to tackle this issue at some stage or the country faces a potential youth brain drain post covid 19 or else a massive renewed vote for SF next time out

nerrad01

combat14 wrote: »

house prices are almost back to crazy celtic tiger boom levels (only 18% off) and rents here are now insane..

FF/FG will have to tackle this issue at some stage or the country faces a potential youth brain drain post covid 19 or else a massive renewed vote for SF next time out

Not a chance this will happen, they have had the guts of 10 years to do this and have in fact made the situation worse

Idbatterim

combat14 wrote: »

house prices are almost back to crazy celtic tiger boom levels (only 18% off) and rents here are now insane..

FF/FG will have to tackle this issue at some stage or the country faces a potential youth brain drain post covid 19 or else a massive renewed vote for SF next time out

If a "socially progressive" party emerge, economically conservative that will reward workers on income taxes and housing, god help fg in particular! Anyway, look at the lack of housing output and how much is going to social housing. If sf would have won most seats last time round if they fielded more candidates, 2-3 years more of the housing farce? Lol!
And its fg driving the change. Channeling all the money at wasters and deserting their younger vote. The chickens are going to come home to roost!

PropQueries

combat14 wrote: »

house prices are almost back to crazy celtic tiger boom levels (only 18% off) and rents here are now insane..

FF/FG will have to tackle this issue at some stage or the country faces a potential youth brain drain post covid 19 or else a massive renewed vote for SF next time out

Or to put it another way, house prices haven't budged in c. 15 years

Graham

or house prices are still almost 20% lower than they were about 15 years ago

awec

18% lower is a significant difference.

nerrad01

We know its bad when we are using the celtic tiger prices as a guage for anything

Graham

Depends on your viewpoint.

Half the posters use prices in the middle of a global financial crash as some sort of correctness indicator.

Bubbaclaus

If you took the average price of a house 25 years ago (pre celtic tiger) and compared it to today I wonder what the average growth in price was. There have been big swings in both ways, but you would probably get a somewhat normal average annual growth rate for the last quarter century.

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

or house prices are still almost 20% lower than they were about 15 years ago

It could also spell trouble for those residential property investors who took out interest-only mortgages during the Celtic Tiger years. What actually happens now? They either have to start selling and take a potential loss or will (can) the banks extend their mortgages on an interest and principal basis for a further 20 years i.e. extend and pretend?

Smouse156

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Actually, property prices rose slightly between July and August. It is the YoY figure that fell, but prices actually creeped upwards slightly in both Dublin and in the country as a whole for August compared to the month prior.

Always easy to package the data in a way that suits an agenda.

Falling house prices is DEFINITELY not the Irish Times agenda

fliball123

Smouse156 wrote: »

Falling house prices is DEFINITELY not the Irish Times agenda

Prices have increased 3 months in a row you can hardly say the are currently falling

Graham

PropQueries wrote: »

It could also spell trouble for those residential property investors who took out interest-only mortgages during the Celtic Tiger years.

Never could understand the interest only approach to property investment to be honest, unless the intention was a quick flip in what was a rapidly rising market.