Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

cnocbui

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

If you took the average price of a house 25 years ago (pre celtic tiger) and compared it to today I wonder what the average growth in price was. There have been big swings in both ways, but you would probably get a somewhat normal average annual growth rate for the last quarter century.

Well I am hoping to sell my house bought 18 years ago - a one off out in the country - and I am not anticipating making any profit.

fliball123

cnocbui wrote: »

Well I am hoping to sell my house bought 18 years ago - a one off out in the country - and I am not anticipating making any profit.

Well at least you will get the equity of that 18 years back unlike if you had been renting for the last 18 years

hometruths

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Actually, property prices rose slightly between July and August. It is the YoY figure that fell, but prices actually creeped upwards slightly in both Dublin and in the country as a whole for August compared to the month prior.

Always easy to package the data in a way that suits an agenda.

Indeed, as your post so neatly demonstrates.

Smouse156

fliball123 wrote: »

Prices have increased 3 months in a row you can hardly say the are currently falling

Year on yeah they fell! Think it’s the only useful comparison whether they rise or fall.

Month on month has seasonality effects.

My reading is the market is basically stable since it peeked in late 2018

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed, as your post so neatly demonstrates.

What that prices have gone up 2/3 months in a row in the worst pandemic to hit the world and that the government has just implemented a budget that has no cuts or tax increases for those working and will keep people who have lost their jobs (mostly those on the lower wage) on the covid payments so much for the doom and gloom. Prices wont be heading south after that budget for the next 6 to 12 months. Now those who have been comparing the crash of 08 will see that this time it is different and fundamentally its different in the way the government are handling it as in the foreseen cuts and tax increases to pay for Covid did not come to pass well at least for this budget. Also the budget was based on no cure being found next year and a no deal Brexit.

Bubbaclaus

schmittel wrote: »

Indeed, as your post so neatly demonstrates.

Not sure what you are trying to imply there, but as the facts show, property prices in Ireland have increased in each of the last 3 months. If that is signs of a plunging market then sign me up.

fliball123

Smouse156 wrote: »

Year on yeah they fell! Think it’s the only useful comparison whether they rise or fall.

Month on month has seasonality effects.

My reading is the market is basically stable since it peeked in late 2018

Arse it is 3 months during the worst pandemic ever its gone up in 3 consecutive months after a marginal drop most of which happened pre-covid and that is meaningless REALLY???? Well lets see which way it goes if there is another increase over the next 3 months will you be still spinning this? I do agree it has been stable for the last 2 years or so but the drops predicted on here by some are not going to happen for at least another 12 months after the budget

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

What that prices have gone up 2/3 months in a row in the worst pandemic to hit the world and that the government has just implemented a budget that has no cuts or tax increases for those working and will keep people who have lost their jobs (mostly those on the lower wage) on the covid payments so much for the doom and gloom. Prices wont be heading south after that budget for the next 6 to 12 months. Now those who have been comparing the crash of 08 will see that this time it is different and fundamentally its different in the way the government are handling it as in the foreseen cuts and tax increases to pay for Covid did not come to pass well at least for this budget. Also there the budget was based on no cure being found next year and a no deal Brexit.

I think the point of the post went over your head, not for the first time.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I think the point of the post went over your head, not for the first time.

What ever point is 3 months of price increases during the worst pandemic and people are spinning as the market is plummeting because year on year the price is down. Typical of your caliber to attack the man and not the ball when points backed by fact are put in front of you that you just dont like or does not back up your theory

PropQueries

Graham wrote: »

Never could understand the interest only approach to property investment to be honest, unless the intention was a quick flip in what was a rapidly rising market.

Basically the bankers who approved such loans was gambling with shareholders money. There's no real downside for the banker approving such a loan.

The banker gets his bonus for that year i.e. immediately. The payoff won't be known for 10, 15 or 20 years. If it doesn't payoff, it's most likely the banker who approved such a loan would have moved to a different bank or retired in the meantime i.e. somebody else's problem.

hometruths

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Not sure what you are trying to imply there, but as the facts show, property prices in Ireland have increased in each of the last 3 months. If that is signs of a plunging market then sign me up.

I’m not trying to imply anything. Simply stating a fact.

If you think Irish times are packaging data to suit an agenda by pointing out house prices have fallen year on year then it follows you are engaged in exactly the same agenda driven packaging by saying they have increased month on month.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

I’m not trying to imply anything. Simply stating a fact.

If you think Irish times are packaging data to suit an agenda by pointing out house prices have fallen year on year then it follows you are engaged in exactly the same agenda driven packaging by saying they have increased month on month.

You have to break that data down most of that measly 1.6% drop was pre-covid and most of the price rebounding have been during the pandemic. If you believe the doomsayers here prices should be down 50% by now or at the very latest by the end of the year. Now with the budget this will be pushed out by 12 months

hometruths

Interesting to note Dublin city prices down 3.4%. They must be down a good chunk more since late 2018.

Bubbaclaus

schmittel wrote: »

I’m not trying to imply anything. Simply stating a fact.

If you think Irish times are packaging data to suit an agenda by pointing out house prices have fallen year on year then it follows you are engaged in exactly the same agenda driven packaging by saying they have increased month on month.

Actually what I was doing was just giving the hard data that property prices have increased per the CSO report in each of the last 3 months, which means there is no indication of property prices falling a lot, or even at all, due to COVID.

hometruths

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Actually what I was doing was just giving the hard data that property prices have increased per the CSO report in each of the last 3 months, which means there is no indication of property prices falling a lot, or even at all, due to COVID.

As per the Irish times article there is plenty of indication of property prices falling, maybe not a lot and not everywhere, but there are indications of falls nonetheless.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

As per the Irish times article there is plenty of indication of property prices falling, maybe not a lot and not everywhere, but there are indications of falls nonetheless.

so 3 months of price increases in your head equals prices falling?? OK I think we will just have to agree to disagree

Timing belt

fliball123 wrote: »

so 3 months of price increases in your head equals prices falling?? OK I think we will just have to agree to disagree

House prices are reacting differently outside of Dublin

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40064660.html

Pelezico

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Actually what I was doing was just giving the hard data that property prices have increased per the CSO report in each of the last 3 months, which means there is no indication of property prices falling a lot, or even at all, due to COVID.

They are going up because of covid. We have just witnessed the most expansionary budget in the history of the state.

Question is, where to from here?

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

so 3 months of price increases in your head equals prices falling?? OK I think we will just have to agree to disagree

Nothing here to agree or disagree on.

3 months of price increases equals prices rising month on month - I.e prices in August were higher than they were in July.

The Irish times article is concerned with year on year. I.e in some places eg Dublin city prices were lower in August 2020 than they were in August 2019.

This is not complicated stuff to understand.

PropQueries

Minister O’Brien announces €3.1 billion housing budget and €1.4 million investment for water services.

Link to the details here: https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/96dba-minister-obrien-announces-31-billion-housing-budget/

jill_valentine

From talking to some property people, the impression I get is that they expect to see some significant divergence that will make "overall" numbers misleading or meaningless soon - ie some property types will go up dramatically and others down just as much, some locations will fall gradually while others rise.

Smouse156

fliball123 wrote: »

Arse it is 3 months during the worst pandemic ever its gone up in 3 consecutive months after a marginal drop most of which happened pre-covid and that is meaningless REALLY???? Well lets see which way it goes if there is another increase over the next 3 months will you be still spinning this? I do agree it has been stable for the last 2 years or so but the drops predicted on here by some are not going to happen for at least another 12 months after the budget

How am I spinning this? I stated YoY they fell and that they have been flat since 2018???

You claim MoM rises is significant? What’s next day on day? It’s clearly flat overall!

I think changes will be Dublin down, rest of country up as half the people in Dublin don’t want to live there and are only there for work. Also 500k+ will drop (no help the Brickie) and sub 500k up

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Nothing here to agree or disagree on.

3 months of price increases equals prices rising month on month - I.e prices in August were higher than they were in July.

The Irish times article is concerned with year on year. I.e in some places eg Dublin city prices were lower in August 2020 than they were in August 2019.

This is not complicated stuff to understand.

in other countries with a "functioning" property market, how do prices fluctuate over times - is it +/-5%? What countries have a functioning market to compare against?
So when Ireland has a functioning property market (in 2150), how will prices fluctuate?

Timing belt

Hubertj wrote: »

in other countries with a "functioning" property market, how do prices fluctuate over times - is it +/-5%? What countries have a functioning market to compare against?
So when Ireland has a functioning property market (in 2150), how will prices fluctuate?

Prices are linked to income so in a functioning property market there should be no major fluctuations. People would buy a FTB’s house when young and if income increased would upgrade etc.

Problem is that we don’t have a functioning property market due to supply.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

in other countries with a "functioning" property market, how do prices fluctuate over times - is it +/-5%? What countries have a functioning market to compare against?
So when Ireland has a functioning property market (in 2150), how will prices fluctuate?

Not sure to be honest, I would doubt it is +/- 5% yoy, that seems very high. I guess some of Irish the figures from Aug 19 - Aug 20 would be considered in normal range.

Have a look at KBC report at outbreak of Covid - their base case for Ireland was in 2020 was a drop of 12% in 2020 followed by rise of 8% in 2021.

Meanwhile they said Belgium would drop by 3%, then by 2%.

Granted, it looks like they got their predictions wrong. But it is hard to escape the conclusion they feel Ireland is significantly more volatile than other markets, for whatever reason.

You put functioning in quotation marks. Are you of the opinion that the market here is functioning ok. As in no need for quotation marks?!

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

Not sure to be honest, I would doubt it is +/- 5% yoy, that seems very high. I guess some of Irish the figures from Aug 19 - Aug 20 would be considered in normal range.

Have a look at KBC report at outbreak of Covid - their base case for Ireland was in 2020 was a drop of 12% in 2020 followed by rise of 8% in 2021.

Meanwhile they said Belgium would drop by 3%, then by 2%.

Granted, it looks like they got their predictions wrong. But it is hard to escape the conclusion they feel Ireland is significantly more volatile than other markets, for whatever reason.

You put functioning in quotation marks. Are you of the opinion that the market here is functioning ok. As in no need for quotation marks?!

Will take a look at the kbc report. I remember it from earlier in year thanks.
“Functioning” didn’t mean I think Irish market is working, far form it clearly. I meant what is “functioning”?

Ush1

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

Long story short, no.

Why? Plenty of grand private estates in Tallaght.

Dwarf.Shortage

Ush1 wrote: »

Why? Plenty of grand private estates in Tallaght.

I'm not from far from there, have spent enough time in and around The Square to know it's not the local shopping / bite to eat / cinema visit place I want in my life. Not even worried for my safety it's just too depressing looking at the junkies fighting over some imagined nonsense.

I assume the more established estates are closer to Tallaght village and Tymon/Templeogue direction? In theory would absolutely live out that direction but I assume the houses there are older builds (based on what I see out the bus window anyway) and much more expensive than what people tout as "Tallaght prices".

It also doesn't suit me geographically and for similar money I'd rather be in Kinsealy or Donabate, just purely based on personal life factors.

The likes of this is lovely and I'd have no issue with, obviously my comment is a generalisation
https://www.daft.ie/dublin/houses-for-sale/tallaght/34-brookmount-tallaght-tallaght-dublin-2722493/

Ush1

Im not keen on shopping centres in general to be honest but there's good transport to city centre.

The houses in private estates which makes up the majority of Tallaght will be more expensive but still a decent price in today's market. If seeing a few undesirables in the square would put you off buying in the largest town in Ireland then I'd say you might be overly sensitive. Fair enough if you have personal reasons for wanting the northside.

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Will take a look at the kbc report. I remember it from earlier in year thanks.
“Functioning” didn’t mean I think Irish market is working, far form it clearly. I meant what is “functioning”?

When I think of a functioning market I think of true price discovery - supply and demand meeting with limited interference.

eg. in a functioning market you might find people panic buying because strong economic fundamentals indicate the price will be much higher next year.

Clearly in a property market there is always going to be some govt input, but our market is broken because of too much interference that is compounding the existing problems with unintended, but largely foreseeable consequences.

eg. in a non functioning market people are panic buying because weak economic fundamentals indicate they might not have a job next year.

The result is a housing crisis entirely of the govt's making, and the more policies they introduce to alleviate the problems they have caused, the worse the situation gets.