Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

KennisWhale

Graham wrote: »

or house prices are still almost 20% lower than they were about 15 years ago

This is actually something that has more to it than would appear. House prices have not grown in around 15 years despite heavy government interference in the market to try to prop up prices (H2B and mortgage holder eviction protections) and despite nothing being built for the guts of 5-8 years.

I would argue the price increases since 2012 have somewhat of a dead cat bounce feel to them in this context, that the combination of government interference and lack of supply have caused them to claw back some of the losses after 2008. But the fact of the matter is that house prices are back to where they were around 2005, no growth in 15 years.

Unless the mortgage lending limits are increased prices should start to fall back the next few years as affordability appears to have taken hold and supply is slowly but surely coming on stream. I would argue this to be the case irrespective of covid as this may be a stress test that quickens the correction although who knows how covid will affect the market, it's still early and we have not a lot of transactions to work off.

fliball123

KennisWhale wrote: »

This is actually something that has more to it than would appear. House prices have not grown in around 15 years despite heavy government interference in the market to try to prop up prices (H2B and mortgage holder eviction protections) and despite nothing being built for the guts of 5-8 years.

I would argue the price increases since 2012 have somewhat of a dead cat bounce feel to them in this context, that the combination of government interference and lack of supply have caused them to claw back some of the losses after 2008. But the fact of the matter is that house prices are back to where they were around 2005, no growth in 15 years.

Unless the mortgage lending limits are increased prices should start to fall back the next few years as affordability appears to have taken hold and supply is slowly but surely coming on stream. I would argue this to be the case irrespective of covid as this may be a stress test that quickens the correction although who knows how covid will affect the market, it's still early and we have not a lot of transactions to work off.

Ehh no I dont see any supply coming on stream if anything supply is actually on the decrease. So your saying we had an 6-8 year dead cat bounce really I thought the dead cat bounce was a short term effect as in a few months?Must be some Cat?

KennisWhale

fliball123 wrote: »

Ehh no I dont see any supply coming on stream if anything supply is actually on the decrease. So your saying we had an 6-8 year dead cat bounce really I thought the dead cat bounce was a short term effect as in a few months?Must be some Cat?

"I don't see any supply coming on stream if anything supply is on the decrease".

Not sure where you get this from, maybe elaborate?

How could a few months be reliable as a time period to assess something as slow moving as the property market?

fliball123

KennisWhale wrote: »

"I don't see any supply coming on stream if anything supply is on the decrease".

Not sure where you get this from, maybe elaborate?

Have a quick look at myhome from the Start of June 2019 there is about 5k less properties available now then there was then.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/housing-crisis-set-to-worsen-as-sellers-delay-bringing-homes-to-market-1.4293559


Myhome has had free advertising on it for the last 8/9 months so anyone selling a property or at least 99% of them would most likely use a tool that is very well known to EAs , buyers and sellers alike. Add in the delays in new construction due to Covid and the added time lines this brings. Some have come in on time and some have not..


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/coronavirus-halts-building-of-60-000-homes-in-ireland-1.4230460?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2Fcoronavirus-halts-building-of-60-000-homes-in-ireland-1.4230460

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/covid-19-builders-cease-work-on-big-developments-1.4217267?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fconstruction%2Fcovid-19-builders-cease-work-on-big-developments-1.4217267

https://www.businessworld.ie/news-from-ireland/Coronavirus-lockdown-may-cut-Irish-house-building-by-33--574142.html

Add in we could well be going back into lockdown and the sites will be closed again unless the government give them essential service staff status

KennisWhale

fliball123 wrote: »

Have a quick look at myhome from the Start of June 2019 there is about 5k less properties available now then there was then.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/housing-crisis-set-to-worsen-as-sellers-delay-bringing-homes-to-market-1.4293559


Myhome has had free advertising on it for the last 8/9 months so anyone selling a property or at least 99% of them would most likely use a tool that is very well known to EAs , buyers and sellers alike. Add in the delays in new construction due to Covid and the added time lines this brings. Some have come in on time and some have not..


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/30/coronavirus-slump-could-delay-building-of-300000-homes

https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/blog/covid-19-will-delay-housing-construction-but-for-how-long

https://www.nelsonslaw.co.uk/delayed-construction-coronavirus/

Add in we could well be going back into lockdown and the sites will be closed again unless the government give them essential service staff status

Supply on MyHome, ah I see. Well, I would counter that by arguing that supply has come in the form of BTL but the State has intercepted it before it got to the private market;

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/revealed-one-in-five-new-build-homes-is-now-being-snapped-up-by-state-38082140.html

Official figures show approximately one in every five newly built residential properties was snapped up by a combination of local authorities and taxpayer-funded housing bodies last year [2018].

In some counties the State is snapping up more than half of all new homes in estates.

Additionally, in respect of properties which aren't new builds, look at the State seeking to buy these up too: https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-minister-local-authorities-buy-up-new-properties-5155602-Jul2020/

This goes back to my argument that the government interference since the crash of 2008 has contributed in a large way to house prices rebounding but they can't perpetually throw money at the market in order to stop it trying to correct. Price growth is dead and it is correcting as we see with the reports today. This is going to continue. However, it's not to say that transactions won't increase from the low levels this year so those in the industry from builders to surveyors to auctioneers to EAs to banks will still be busy.

Separately, construction sites I understand won't close in level 4 or 5 as they will be deemed essential.

HotDudeLife

awec wrote: »

Huge crash coming next year*.

* repeat every year.

If you go back through my posts I've stated it will take sometime for this economic recession to truly impact the property market, but given you are a mod i must not disagree or I'll be banned.


Ignorance is bliss, probably best to keep your head in the sand.

fliball123

KennisWhale wrote: »

Supply on MyHome, ah I see. Well, I would counter that hy arguing that supply has come in the form of BTL but the State has intercepted it before it got to the private market;

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/revealed-one-in-five-new-build-homes-is-now-being-snapped-up-by-state-38082140.html



Additionally, in respect of properties which aren't new builds, look at the State seeking to buy these up too: https://www.thejournal.ie/housing-minister-local-authorities-buy-up-new-properties-5155602-Jul2020/

This goes back to my argument that the government interference since the crash of 2008 has contributed in a large way to house prices rebounding but they can't perpetually throw money at the market in order to stop it trying to correct. Price growth is dead and it is correcting as we see with the reports today. This is going to continue. However, it's not to say that transactions won't increase from the low levels this year so those in the industry from builders to surveyors to auctioneers to EAs to banks will still be busy.

No you cant counter with that as the figure is still getting smaller even with all of the airbnb and student accommodation coming into play at the start of the pandemic the amount of property for sale has gone down even more from June till now, so its not bringing up the supply side as one would have thought. Not sure if people are putting them into the rental side I did see a bit of a jump in numbers for rent so that is where some of them are going or just keeping them vacant but they sure as hell are not having an impact on the supply side. Well if price growth is dead then why has prices been going up as that is what has happened in the last 3 consecutive months?? as seen with the report today?

enricoh

Surely the only thing keeping house prices from falling is the government buying so many. Can't find the link but government money bought every second house sold in new estates this year in Dublin and 40% nationally.
With big financial potholes to fill with covid and brexit these figures can't be sustained - can they ?!!

fliball123

enricoh wrote: »

Surely the only thing keeping house prices from falling is the government buying so many. Can't find the link but government money bought every second house sold in new estates this year in Dublin and 40% nationally.
With big financial potholes to fill with covid and brexit these figures can't be sustained - can they ?!!

Well the budget was done with the notion that covid would be with us all next year and there will be a no deal brexit so they did what they did and have said they have done it on that basis. We might of all got free money if they though covid was going to be cured tomorrow and that Britain was just going to rejoin the EU next week

KennisWhale

fliball123 wrote: »

No you cant counter with that as the figure is still getting smaller even with all of the airbnb and student accommodation coming into play at the start of the pandemic the amount of property for sale has gone down even more from June till now, so its not bringing up the supply side as one would have thought. Not sure if people are putting them into the rental side I did see a bit of a jump in numbers for rent so that is where some of them are going or just keeping them vacant but they sure as hell are not having an impact on the supply side. Well if price growth is dead then why has prices been going up as that is what has happened in the last 3 consecutive months?? as seen with the report today?

The government cannot keep buying up properties or taking on leases of the BTLs which aren't going into the purchase market. They don't have the money to do this. But the main point is that the supply is there but the properties are not being put up for sale as there have been government measures to prevent the supply hitting the home buyer's market.

Month to month, particularly in a pandemic lockdown with dramatically reduced transaction numbers does not present any meaningful data. The YoY is more suitable.

Duke of Url

enricoh wrote: »

Surely the only thing keeping house prices from falling is the government buying so many. Can't find the link but government money bought every second house sold in new estates this year in Dublin and 40% nationally.
With big financial potholes to fill with covid and brexit these figures can't be sustained - can they ?!!

I have bought a house in a new estate this year and at least 90% are privately owned.

fliball123

KennisWhale wrote: »

The government cannot keep buying up properties or taking on leases of the BTLs which aren't going into the purchase market. They don't have the money to do this. But the main point is that the supply is there but the properties are not being put up for sale as there have been government measures to prevent the supply hitting the home buyer's market.

Month to month, particularly in a pandemic lockdown with dramatically reduced transaction numbers does not present any meaningful data. The YoY is more suitable.

So are you telling me that the government are just hiving off property and not actually using it even do we have a housing crisis and a fairly long housing waiting list. If the properties your talking about are in use then they are simply not for sale and has to be excluded from the supply side for availability for others to buy. But yes I think the government are swaying the market , but you have to put this in context of what every left leaning group are saying about homelessness sure look at the rise of Sinn Fein on the whole housing as a right approach. I am not saying its right but like everything else in society once someone is given something its very hard to take it away

House Hunt

Duke of Url wrote: »

I have bought a house in a new estate this year and at least 90% are privately owned.

Same here

KennisWhale

fliball123 wrote: »

So are you telling me that the government are just hiving off property and not actually using it even do we have a housing crisis and a fairly long housing waiting list. If the properties your talking about are in use then they are simply not for sale and has to be excluded from the supply side for availability for others to buy. But yes I think the government are swaying the market , but you have to put this in context of what every left leaning group are saying about homelessness sure look at the rise of Sinn Fein on the whole housing as a right approach. I am not saying its right but like everything else in society once someone is given something its very hard to take it away

Yes, governemt buying of properties is just one aspect of their interference in the market. They also have the mortgage holder eviction protections, H2B, HAP to name a few things which all add fuel to the fire of the market.

It's probably unpopular to say but IMO homelessness is an industry while actual honelessness is a tragic story of drug addiction and/or mental illness. SF and other PBP types are populist, but more importantly are left wing so would do more damage to the housing market if allowed to.

That being said, if FF and FG don't work together to at least help renters (who are younger people) then more will flock to the leftie loonies in the next election. In a post-Brexit world with pressure coming down on MNCs, who knows what state the country will be in with the loonies in charge of the exchequer purse strings.

fliball123

KennisWhale wrote: »

It's probably unpopular to say but IMO homelessness is an industry while actual honelessness is a tragic story of drug addiction ans/or mental illness. SF and other PBP types are populist, but more importantly are left wing so would do more damage to the housing market if allowed to.

That being said, if FF and FG don't work together to at least help renters (who are younger people) then more will flock to the leftie loonies in the next election. In a post-Brexit world with pressure coming down on MNCs, who knows what state the country will be in with the loonies in charge of the exchequer purse strings.

I agree with you there but where do you draw the line and as night follows day as soon as renters get help the guys who have a huge mortgage or in negative equity and paying it back will be looking for help..

Hubertj

schmittel wrote: »

When I think of a functioning market I think of true price discovery - supply and demand meeting with limited interference.

eg. in a functioning market you might find people panic buying because strong economic fundamentals indicate the price will be much higher next year.

Clearly in a property market there is always going to be some govt input, but our market is broken because of too much interference that is compounding the existing problems with unintended, but largely foreseeable consequences.

eg. in a non functioning market people are panic buying because weak economic fundamentals indicate they might not have a job next year.

The result is a housing crisis entirely of the govt's making, and the more policies they introduce to alleviate the problems they have caused, the worse the situation gets.

Makes perfect sense but sadly doesn’t sound like this will ever be achieved in Ireland. Whoever is in government will just keep interfering in different ways, then governments change, policy changes, more interference, and on and on and on

Wanderer78

Hubertj wrote:

Makes perfect sense but sadly doesn’t sound like this will ever be achieved in Ireland. Whoever is in government will just keep interfering in different ways, then governments change, policy changes, more interference, and on and on and on

Can anyone give an example of such a perfect market?

hometruths

Hubertj wrote: »

Makes perfect sense but sadly doesn’t sound like this will ever be achieved in Ireland. Whoever is in government will just keep interfering in different ways, then governments change, policy changes, more interference, and on and on and on

We get the governments we deserve. Their policies are influenced by the voters.

We can wail all we like about the poor homeless and children sleeping in cars, but in reality the voting majority are happy the government has their back and not the poor people!

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

We get the governments we deserve. Their policies are influenced by the voters.

We can wail all we like about the poor homeless and children sleeping in cars, but in reality the voting majority are happy the government has their back and not the poor people!

In Fairness we are one of the most generous when it comes to the poor in this country there will be some who slip through the cracks but then again show me one other country in the world that has 100% of their poor and population housed?

Wanderer78

schmittel wrote:

We get the governments we deserve. Their policies are influenced by the voters.

We don’t really, their policies are regularly influenced by the more plutocratic elements of society

Wanderer78

fliball123 wrote:

In Fairness we are one of the most generous when it comes to the poor in this country there will be some who slip through the cracks but then again show me one other country in the world that has 100% of their poor and population housed?

Generous, how exactly?

fliball123

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Generous, how exactly?

Our welfare rates , the different housing schemes for getting people into housing if you compare with other countries. Just look north of the board where people affected by corona only got 100 pound here we were getting 350 and now up to 300 .. That should be something people here should look at when considering Sinn Fein they are in active government up the north and are spinning like hell to get into government here and they will be more of the same

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

In Fairness we are one of the most generous when it comes to the poor in this country there will be some who slip through the cracks but then again show me one other country in the world that has 100% of their poor and population housed?

100% is unachievable because there will always be a number who would just rather live outside the system and are beyond help for a variety of reasons.

For the rest the high cost of rent is the most significant cause of homelessness.

It is government policies that have caused the high rents. These policies have broadly benefited middle class voters.

That's what I mean. We have the ability to radically reduce the homelessness problem, but don't seem to want to do it.

fliball123

schmittel wrote: »

100% is unachievable because there will always be a number who would just rather live outside the system and are beyond help for a variety of reasons.

For the rest the high cost of rent is the most significant cause of homelessness.

It is government policies that have caused the high rents. These policies have broadly benefited middle class voters.

That's what I mean. We have the ability to radically reduce the homelessness problem, but don't seem to want to do it.

So just out of curiosity I know we have had our differences but what would you do to solve it? NOt attacking you now or anything!

hometruths

fliball123 wrote: »

So just out of curiosity I know we have had our differences but what would you do to solve it? NOt attacking you now or anything!

There is a huge range of measures which would make up quite a long post but in a nutshell it would involve 180 degree turn in change of focus and strategy to reallocate housing budgets and resources.

The short version:

Scrap all Help to Buy/Shared Equity etc etc measures designed to make housing more affordable to private buyers. Reallocate these funds to HAP/Social Housing budgets. Set a more modest limit on HAP rates than current market rates.

Scrap all rent controls. Let private landlords charge what they think the market will bear. Scrap all long term leases for social housing with landlords, offer them tax incentives to offer longer leases in private rental market. Generally improve tax risk/reward for landlords.

Although no rent controls keep designated RPZs as a marker of where problems are greatest.

Hammer any Airbnbs hard in current RPZs to get them either on market for sale or market for rent. Enforce it properly in the future.

Introduce vacant property register in RPZs. (Give the job to the CSO, not Fingal CC!)

Reduce CGT on sale of long term vacant property if sold within next 6 months.

Introduce some sort of planning permission type system for vacant property in RPZs - i.e no tax if you wish to keep a property vacant but you need to have a good reason. Enforce it properly. Monitor it. If a property is listed as a rental, check it regularly.

Increase CAT allowances within a near term timescale specifically for pensioners downsizing properties in RPZs.

Introduced government backed bridging loans for downsizers.

Do a deal with banks/vulture funds whereby the government pledges a change in policy and to promote change in public opinion on arrears - i.e if you are not paying your mortgage we will repossess you.

In exchange banks/vulture funds hand over the loan books of those who are genuinely the poorest in need of most help, and every property that is suitable for social housing.

So basically if Vultures Inc have an unemployed family of four living in a modest house, or modest buy to let, it becomes the governments problem.

And if they have a celebrity chef and model living in a 1m house in Clontarf they have the green light to fast track the repo and get it on the market.

Clear all this overhang and then scrap CB lending limits. Allow banks to lend as much as they wish based on their risk analysis of individual borrower BUT with non recourse loans and fast tracked repos after 6 months.

I could go on and on and on but you get the idea, basically the opposite of everything we are doing now!

And this government have the perfect excuse with which to protect themselves from some of the negative fall out from the above - they can blame covid impact on the economy.

Timing belt

schmittel wrote: »

scrap CB lending limits. Allow banks to lend as much as they wish based on their risk analysis of individual borrower BUT with non recourse loans and fast tracked repos after 6 months.

I don't agree with this as this is the only thing that is preventing the housing market from generating another bubble and if this was lifted banks would go on a credit binge especially at the moment when they have so much cash sitting on there balance sheet attracting negative interest. It would be a feeding frenzy!!!

Idbatterim

fliball123 wrote: »

Our welfare rates , the different housing schemes for getting people into housing if you compare with other countries. Just look north of the board where people affected by corona only got 100 pound here we were getting 350 and now up to 300 .. That should be something people here should look at when considering Sinn Fein they are in active government up the north and are spinning like hell to get into government here and they will be more of the same

We have left wing governance here from fg, except one cohort who they claim to represent, get done on housing. Ill take my chances with sf doing something on housing at this rate, as an ex fg voter...

Duke of Url

schmittel wrote: »

There is a huge range of measures which would make up quite a long post but in a nutshell it would involve 180 degree turn in change of focus and strategy to reallocate housing budgets and resources.

The short version:

Scrap all Help to Buy/Shared Equity etc etc measures designed to make housing more affordable to private buyers. Reallocate these funds to HAP/Social Housing budgets. Set a more modest limit on HAP rates than current market rates.

Scrap all rent controls. Let private landlords charge what they think the market will bear. Scrap all long term leases for social housing with landlords, offer them tax incentives to offer longer leases in private rental market. Generally improve tax risk/reward for landlords.

Although no rent controls keep designated RPZs as a marker of where problems are greatest.

Hammer any Airbnbs hard in current RPZs to get them either on market for sale or market for rent. Enforce it properly in the future.

Introduce vacant property register in RPZs. (Give the job to the CSO, not Fingal CC!)

Reduce CGT on sale of long term vacant property if sold within next 6 months.

Introduce some sort of planning permission type system for vacant property in RPZs - i.e no tax if you wish to keep a property vacant but you need to have a good reason. Enforce it properly. Monitor it. If a property is listed as a rental, check it regularly.

Increase CAT allowances within a near term timescale specifically for pensioners downsizing properties in RPZs.

Introduced government backed bridging loans for downsizers.

Do a deal with banks/vulture funds whereby the government pledges a change in policy and to promote change in public opinion on arrears - i.e if you are not paying your mortgage we will repossess you.

In exchange banks/vulture funds hand over the loan books of those who are genuinely the poorest in need of most help, and every property that is suitable for social housing.

So basically if Vultures Inc have an unemployed family of four living in a modest house, or modest buy to let, it becomes the governments problem.

And if they have a celebrity chef and model living in a 1m house in Clontarf they have the green light to fast track the repo and get it on the market.

Clear all this overhang and then scrap CB lending limits. Allow banks to lend as much as they wish based on their risk analysis of individual borrower BUT with non recourse loans and fast tracked repos after 6 months.

I could go on and on and on but you get the idea, basically the opposite of everything we are doing now!

And this government have the perfect excuse with which to protect themselves from some of the negative fall out from the above - they can blame covid impact on the economy.

They should scrap private landlords letting to tenants directly.

IMO renting accommodation should be via letting agency’s only

TheW1zard

House prices are up 5% in the last 2 years in my estate.

Bass Reeves

schmittel wrote: »

There is a huge range of measures which would make up quite a long post but in a nutshell it would involve 180 degree turn in change of focus and strategy to reallocate housing budgets and resources.

The short version:

Scrap all Help to Buy/Shared Equity etc etc measures designed to make housing more affordable to private buyers. Reallocate these funds to HAP/Social Housing budgets. Set a more modest limit on HAP rates than current market rates..

More modest limits on HAP will have what ever landlords are doing it to exit. Risk v Reward with HAP tenants is borderline anyway, extra costs involved for landlord with HAP are making landlord involvement borderline anyway. Tenants are making up shortfall anyway

schmittel wrote: »

Scrap all rent controls. Let private landlords charge what they think the market will bear. Scrap all long term leases for social housing with landlords, offer them tax incentives to offer longer leases in private rental market. Generally improve tax risk/reward for landlords.

Although no rent controls keep designated RPZs as a marker of where problems are greatest..

Tax treatment of landlords is harsh on this country anyway. Legitimate expenses that are allowed in other businesses are refused to landlords. As is landlords are willing to do long-term leases with councils if they accept the tenant risks

schmittel wrote: »

Hammer any Airbnbs hard in current RPZs to get them either on market for sale or market for rent. Enforce it properly in the future.
.

You really seem to have an issue wit Airbnb's if you deregulate a market you cannot have its and bits. Airbnb's are a reaction to risk/reward by some LL's. If Airbnb's are completely removed from RPZ's you will be left with a short term rental issues which effect business and tourism

schmittel wrote: »

Introduce vacant property register in RPZs. (Give the job to the CSO, not Fingal CC!)

Reduce CGT on sale of long term vacant property if sold within next 6 months..

If you are right about the level of vacent properties what you propose would cause a property price collapse in that type of property. In most cases CGT may not be an issue anyway. And even if it was piece collapse by dumping would negate any benefit from it. If I owned one I've staying put

schmittel wrote: »

Introduce some sort of planning permission type system for vacant property in RPZs - i.e no tax if you wish to keep a property vacant but you need to have a good reason. Enforce it properly. Monitor it. If a property is listed as a rental, check it regularly..

Bla Bla Bla, again more and more regulation in a deregulation plan

schmittel wrote: »

Increase CAT allowances within a near term timescale specifically for pensioners downsizing properties in RPZs.

Introduced government backed bridging loans for downsizers..

CGT not an issue with selling private residences, the reason people do not is because poor available options in the areas they live in and even if there is no margin in it

schmittel wrote: »

Do a deal with banks/vulture funds whereby the government pledges a change in policy and to promote change in public opinion on arrears - i.e if you are not paying your mortgage we will repossess you..

In exchange banks/vulture funds hand over the loan books of those who are genuinely the poorest in need of most help, and every property that is suitable for social housing. .

Sounds good in theory but we have howls about government's overpaying for loan books.bthese loans were bought in packages which means it's impossible to disassemble

schmittel wrote: »

So basically if Vultures Inc have an unemployed family of four living in a modest house, or modest buy to let, it becomes the governments problem..

Sounds good but you are throwing a private banking problem onto the taxpayer.

schmittel wrote: »

And if they have a celebrity chef and model living in a 1m house in Clontarf they have the green light to fast track the repo and get it on the market..

So the government take the crappy ones and banks reposses the valuable ones

schmittel wrote: »

Clear all this overhang and then scrap CB lending limits. Allow banks to lend as much as they wish based on their risk analysis of individual borrower BUT with non recourse loans and fast tracked repos after 6 months..

This failed to work in the US however in the last property crash. Deregulation and banking has caused problems whenever they are hand in hand. Bonuses are too much of a temptation to banking executives

schmittel wrote: »

I could go on and on and on but you get the idea, basically the opposite of everything we are doing now!


And this government have the perfect excuse with which to protect themselves from some of the negative fall out from the above - they can blame covid impact on the economy.

You could go on and on but your plan is not an option in the reality of politics