Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

KennisWhale

Yara Rich Camouflage wrote: »

What happens with these units then if unused for retail? do people see them just laying idle or possible some can/will be converted for different use?

Amazon will set up customer care hubs or Starbucks will take them over.

/ half-joking.

TheSheriff

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

I'm actually heartened for the first time in a long time that steps in the right direction are afoot. If the increased funding to build social housing removes or even materially reduces the extent of the government out bidding people trying to purchase private housing things should improve a bit supply wise.

It's not a panacea and I don't think there is one, but it will help.

Your optimism is admirable. We'll likely not know for years.

merikahan

HopsAndJumps wrote: »

The new Somerton house in Adamstown are going on sale Friday. The 3 beds start at 365k. I got a shock!

The Newpark ones started at 315k

The bay view in Baldoyle is starting from 410K with 425K for 112 sqm 3 bed house.

100 years from now, we’ll called as a generation which couldn’t afford a house.

PropQueries

The Government plans to fund remote hubs in rural towns and villages over the next two years as part of the development of a State strategy on remote working.

Leo Varadkar has "warned that we have to look at the risks to the country as well of people who currently live in Ireland perhaps remote working from the Canaries, or Ibiza or Poland or India. That’s a real risk to us in terms of losing jobs."

Link to article in Irish Times: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/remote-working-hubs-to-be-funded-by-government-as-part-of-state-strategy-1.4382006

brisan

donnaille wrote: »

Yes, that's my understanding too.

Changed it to monthly reports in May of this year


https://www.daft.ie/report

brisan

combat14 wrote: »

house prices are almost back to crazy celtic tiger boom levels (only 18% off) and rents here are now insane..

FF/FG will have to tackle this issue at some stage or the country faces a potential youth brain drain post covid 19 or else a massive renewed vote for SF next time out

That is my take on the matter

cnocbui

merikahan wrote: »

The bay view in Baldoyle is starting from 410K with 425K for 112 sqm 3 bed house.

100 years from now, we’ll called as a generation which couldn’t afford a house.

A 3 bedroom of that size in San Franciso would cost you 2-3 times that. Same for many other cities around the world.

cubatahavana

cnocbui wrote: »

A 3 bedroom of that size in San Franciso would cost you 2-3 times that. Same for many other cities around the world.

Bit unfair to compare baldoyle to San Fran

brisan

Duke of Url wrote: »

I have bought a house in a new estate this year and at least 90% are privately owned.

Well then the Developer paid a fee to the Government to enable this to happen
Although I thought this practice was banned and the developer had to hand over 20% of the estate to the council
I am however open to correction on that

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

So just out of curiosity I know we have had our differences but what would you do to solve it? NOt attacking you now or anything!

My idea would be to visit the magical money tree that FFG said did not exist when SF said it did
Lo and behold during the pandemic FFG found the tree
Borrow 5 billion
Build 25,000 3 bed 3 bath 99sq mt houses on state owned land at 200,000 each
Sell 20,000 at 250,000 each for 5 billion and keep 5000 for social housing
Rinse and repeat for a few years
Let the private developers build the dearer houses and scrap the HTB scheme altogether
If you sell one of the state built houses within 10 years you pay penal taxes on the profits on a gradually decreasing scale starting at year 5
Only owner occupiers allowed to buy

brisan

schmittel wrote: »

There is a huge range of measures which would make up quite a long post but in a nutshell it would involve 180 degree turn in change of focus and strategy to reallocate housing budgets and resources.

The short version:

Scrap all Help to Buy/Shared Equity etc etc measures designed to make housing more affordable to private buyers. Reallocate these funds to HAP/Social Housing budgets. Set a more modest limit on HAP rates than current market rates.

Scrap all rent controls. Let private landlords charge what they think the market will bear. Scrap all long term leases for social housing with landlords, offer them tax incentives to offer longer leases in private rental market. Generally improve tax risk/reward for landlords.

Although no rent controls keep designated RPZs as a marker of where problems are greatest.

Hammer any Airbnbs hard in current RPZs to get them either on market for sale or market for rent. Enforce it properly in the future.

Introduce vacant property register in RPZs. (Give the job to the CSO, not Fingal CC!)

Reduce CGT on sale of long term vacant property if sold within next 6 months.

Introduce some sort of planning permission type system for vacant property in RPZs - i.e no tax if you wish to keep a property vacant but you need to have a good reason. Enforce it properly. Monitor it. If a property is listed as a rental, check it regularly.

Increase CAT allowances within a near term timescale specifically for pensioners downsizing properties in RPZs.

Introduced government backed bridging loans for downsizers.

Do a deal with banks/vulture funds whereby the government pledges a change in policy and to promote change in public opinion on arrears - i.e if you are not paying your mortgage we will repossess you.

In exchange banks/vulture funds hand over the loan books of those who are genuinely the poorest in need of most help, and every property that is suitable for social housing.

So basically if Vultures Inc have an unemployed family of four living in a modest house, or modest buy to let, it becomes the governments problem.

And if they have a celebrity chef and model living in a 1m house in Clontarf they have the green light to fast track the repo and get it on the market.

Clear all this overhang and then scrap CB lending limits. Allow banks to lend as much as they wish based on their risk analysis of individual borrower BUT with non recourse loans and fast tracked repos after 6 months.

I could go on and on and on but you get the idea, basically the opposite of everything we are doing now!

And this government have the perfect excuse with which to protect themselves from some of the negative fall out from the above - they can blame covid impact on the economy.

No one could have a problem with that

cnocbui

cubatahavana wrote: »

Bit unfair to compare baldoyle to San Fran

Yeah, one is in a nations capital city and the other isn't.

brisan

cubatahavana wrote: »

Bit unfair to compare baldoyle to San Fran

Probably the truest post in the entire thread ,especially considering saying That Bayview is in Baldoyle is a stretch

Bubbaclaus

cubatahavana wrote: »

Bit unfair to compare baldoyle to San Fran

Absolutely.

There is a massive homeless problem in San Fran. The real kind of homeless too.

brisan

Bubbaclaus wrote: »

Absolutely.

There is a massive homeless problem in San Fran. The real kind of homeless too.

You think San Fran is bad ,check out san Diego
Local councils used to give their local homeless a free train ticket to San Diego to get them out of town
Best climate in the states ,rarely goes below zero degrees and very little rainfall
Although you do have June Gloom

Smouse156

cubatahavana wrote: »

Bit unfair to compare baldoyle to San Fran

Come on?? Baldoyle has WAY more going on than SAN FRAN

cnocbui

cubatahavana wrote: »

Bit unfair to compare baldoyle to San Fran

Ok, how about Hilversum, Holland - https://www.funda.nl/en/koop/hilversum/huis-41048972-eikbosserweg-83/

A 97 sqm postage stamp for €485,000

And that Baldoyle house price wouldn't even get you the land to build a house on in much of Sydney.

merikahan

cnocbui wrote: »

A 3 bedroom of that size in San Franciso would cost you 2-3 times that. Same for many other cities around the world.

having lived & worked in SFO for sometime , this is hilarious post.. In SFO, they also pay 4-5 times of Dublin wages for IT workers.

cnocbui

merikahan wrote: »

having lived & worked in SFO for sometime , this is hilarious post.. In SFO, they also pay 4-5 times of Dublin wages for IT workers.

Next you will be telling me Sydney has 4 times as much sunshine as Dublin, so of course...

smellyoldboot

Dwarf.Shortage wrote: »

I'm actually heartened for the first time in a long time that steps in the right direction are afoot. If the increased funding to build social housing removes or even materially reduces the extent of the government out bidding people trying to purchase private housing things should improve a bit supply wise.

It's not a panacea and I don't think there is one, but it will help.

lol. Awe bless. You're young yet.

javaboy

merikahan wrote: »

having lived & worked in SFO for sometime , this is hilarious post.. In SFO, they also pay 4-5 times of Dublin wages for IT workers.

They pay significantly more but 4-5 times is a gross exaggeration.

virginmediapls

javaboy wrote: »

They pay significantly more but 4-5 times is a gross exaggeration.

No it's not.

SDE IIs in SFO make over 250k easily. Good luck getting that here.

Source : Over 15yrs in the industry, currently hiring software manager.

javaboy

virginmediapls wrote: »

No it's not.

SDE IIs in SFO make over 250k easily. Good luck getting that here.

Source : Over 15yrs in the industry, currently hiring software manager.

Eh yeah. That’s why I said they make far more but not 5 times.

Grads in my own company make north of 50 from day 1 ignoring RSUs etc. never mind after a couple of promotions.

Like for like in the US the base salary is around 2.5-3 times that. Not 4 or 5.

If you’re an SDE II here and 250k is 4-5 times your income, it’s time to hop jobs for somewhere more competitive.

My numbers are anecdotal but the likes of Glassdoor would say similar. No need for exaggeration is all I’m saying.

soirish

The market hasn't changed much in the last few months.

PropQueries

soirish wrote: »

The market hasn't changed much in the last few months.

The same index shows that in February 2007 it was at 130 and in February 2008 it was at 127. Little change back then as well...

Link here: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2016/

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The same index shows that in February 2007 it was at 130 and in February 2008 it was at 127. Little change back then as well...

Link here: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2016/

Link is for 2016?

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Link is for 2016?

It only goes back 10 years for each graph. His one was for August 2020 so only went back to 2010. My one is for August 2016 so goes back to 2006.

Mad_maxx

javaboy wrote: »

They pay significantly more but 4-5 times is a gross exaggeration.

brother in law worked for a medical devices company in San Fran for a few years who also employ a large number of people in galway where he is based now

he claims he would be earning twice as much stateside but a house would cost him a million dollars , he paid 330 k for one here and its a beautiful home outside galway city

Leozord

virginmediapls wrote: »

SDE IIs in SFO make over 250k easily. Good luck getting that here.

Source : Over 15yrs in the industry, currently hiring software manager.

In FAANGs or Tier 2 companies yes. Comparing FAANGS here with SFO's wouldn't reach 2-3x the salary.

But yeah, just pulling your legs - IT salaries are way higher in SFO than here alright

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The same index shows that in February 2007 it was at 130 and in February 2008 it was at 127. Little change back then as well...

Link here: https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-rppi/residentialpropertypriceindexaugust2016/

Why are you comparing now to the crash of 2008? What similarities are there???