Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

combat14

when there is an extended lockdown over winter (xmas if we dont get a handle on the virus now) the govt will have to protect renters like they did during first lockdown

wont be good optics kicking out tenants during winter pandemic with local elections in the offing

KennisWhale

combat14 wrote: »

when there is an extended lockdown over winter (xmas if we dont get a handle on the virus now) the govt will have to protect renters like they did during first lockdown

wont be good optics kicking out tenants during winter pandemic with local elections in the offing

The current ban on evictions lasts until 10 January 2021. That was before there was talk of another lockdown so I'd imagine any sort of additional restrictions in the next few weeks will mean that gets extended. We're now seven full months since the initial lockdown and still not out of the woods but looking like we'll be into the new year with a similarly uncertain outlook to today. What that means for this eviction ban is essentially that non-paying tenants could end up being protected from eviction for the best part of a year!

Graham

Mod Note

some posts moved to Saving/Applying for a mortgage 2020 Edition

HotDudeLife

KennisWhale wrote: »

The current ban on evictions lasts until 10 January 2021. That was before there was talk of another lockdown so I'd imagine any sort of additional restrictions in the next few weeks will mean that gets extended. We're now seven full months since the initial lockdown and still not out of the woods but looking like we'll be into the new year with a similarly uncertain outlook to today. What that means for this eviction ban is essentially that non-paying tenants could end up being protected from eviction for the best part of a year!

And rightfully so, landlords have been bleeding this country dry for too long, heaven forbid a tenant falls on hard times due to a global pandemic and can't pay rent to put a roof over his families head.

hometruths

HotDudeLife wrote: »

And rightfully so, landlords have been bleeding this country dry for too long, heaven forbid a tenant falls on hard times due to a global pandemic and can't pay rent to put a roof over his families head.

Yes, but the protections for tenants are pushing rents higher, because when a property does become vacant increased numbers of landlords are deciding not to relet the property because the risks outweigh the rewards.

Taylor365

schmittel wrote: »

Yes, but the protections for tenants are pushing rents higher, because when a property does become vacant increased numbers of landlords are deciding not to relet the property because the risks outweigh the rewards.

On deaf ears mate. The old evil LL shtick will never disappear from Ireland.



But in comparison, its like the job market in the US - no protection but very easy to land a job because of it.

PommieBast

kravmaga wrote: »

What's the mad rush in selling up now? 2 bed apartment prices have been falling since August.

Are investors/ landlords just deciding to get out because of market volatility due to Covid/ recession biting in.

If anything Covid is merely accelerating an existing trend. I suspect quite a few that hit the market in July-August are ones that were vacated back in Q1 just before the first wave hit.

Hubertj

https://www.sherryfitz.ie/buy/house/dublin/ballsbridge/106-baggot-lane-ballsbridge-dublin-4-739098

What am I missing here? This house is around the corner from mine. My house is 3 beds and a bit bigger. My house is in it boll*x valued at €1.2M.

Very confusing.

Cyrus

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.sherryfitz.ie/buy/house/dublin/ballsbridge/106-baggot-lane-ballsbridge-dublin-4-739098

What am I missing here? This house is around the corner from mine. My house is 3 beds and a bit bigger. My house is in it boll*x valued at €1.2M.

Very confusing.

Presume they are pricing to compete with lansdowne place ?

As always what it sells for will be interesting but it seems poor value .

Balluba

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.sherryfitz.ie/buy/house/dublin/ballsbridge/106-baggot-lane-ballsbridge-dublin-4-739098

What am I missing here? This house is around the corner from mine. My house is 3 beds and a bit bigger. My house is in it boll*x valued at €1.2M.

Very confusing.

The house with the lift in Rathgar ticks more of my boxes

Meandyou999

Looking at a 4 bed semi D in Munster, second hand new build home 4 years old. Price is 329k.
Take home pay after tax is 3,200k per month. Have been mortage approved (joint application) have 50k deposit saved and few grand for solicitors fees outside of the deposit.
My questions are:
1. Is the house worth it? Same house sold for 269k 4years ago when it was built.
2. Would i be able to afford to pay the mortgage back over 25 years on my pay.
3. Am i making a big mistake are house prices going to crash?. I have a refundable deposit paid.

Thanks.

Meandyou999

Meandyou999 wrote: »

3. Am i making a big mistake are house prices going to crash?. I have a refundable deposit paid.

That's the question. I was fully expecting prices to drop due to covid but they seem to be creeping up. They could fall like a stone next year or they could rise for another 15 years. It's hard to know.

Meandyou999

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That's the question. I was fully expecting prices to drop due to covid but they seem to be creeping up. They could fall like a stone next year or they could rise for another 15 years. It's hard to know.

Is a price drop of say 100k expected.?

Timing belt

Meandyou999 wrote: »

Is a price drop of say 100k expected.?

That would be a 30% drop which is unlikely without a serious crash to financial markets

Bubbaclaus

Meandyou999 wrote: »

Is a price drop of say 100k expected.?

If it was expected it would have already happened.

Meandyou999

Timing belt wrote: »

That would be a 30% drop which is unlikely without a serious crash to financial markets

What a about the mortgage repayments they would be between 1250 to 1300 per month over 25 years.

Timing belt

Meandyou999 wrote: »

What a about the mortgage repayments they would be between 1250 to 1300 per month over 25 years.

You wouldn’t be able to rent a 4 bed for that money so putting off buying and renting for a year would cost more.

Meandyou999

Timing belt wrote: »

You wouldn’t be able to rent a 4 bed for that money so putting off buying and renting for a year would cost more.

Rent is 400 per month council property, area comes with all associated scum for free.

jill_valentine

kravmaga wrote: »

Are investors/ landlords just deciding to get out because of market volatility due to Covid/ recession biting in.

The students who would usually take over paying for these places after summer AirBnB'ing aren't paying for them anymore so they're no longer paying for themselves. Students may have had a deposit and first month of rent paid to delay the effect, but that's over with now and it's clear the forseeable future will be Study from Home. Investors don't want new ones and want to get rid before sentiment spreads and they lose their value.

I mentioned this before but from talking to people in property, the impression they were giving me was to be wary of the "average" rises and falls in prices for this reason. Houses may be stable or more likely go up; but apartments are expected to drop dramatically. They were already observing it was taking far longer to shift them now that the big investors aren't snapping them up as soon as they hit the market.

sanfranbest

Hubertj wrote: »

https://www.sherryfitz.ie/buy/house/dublin/ballsbridge/106-baggot-lane-ballsbridge-dublin-4-739098

What am I missing here? This house is around the corner from mine. My house is 3 beds and a bit bigger. My house is in it boll*x valued at €1.2M.

Very confusing.

Wow!
They bought it in 2016 for 650k,,, now they want almost double that,
Crazy price,,, wonder what it will actually sell for?

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/106_baggot_lane_ballsbridge_dublin_4_co_dublin_ireland-234791/

riclad

Theres a large student accomodation building near o,connell street .
its about 3 years old.
i read they are now taking tourists in part of the building .
obviously many students are now using online acess , using zoom or other apps.
theres no need to rent an expensive room near a college in the city centre .
i think houses will be stable or go up because people will want more space if the are working from home for the next few years .
If you go around the city centre ,theres at least 4 large buildings being
built , for offices and retail .
i wonder will there be any tenants for these new buildings in a years time .
When many shops right now are empty and closed since march.

Hubertj

sanfranbest wrote: »

Wow!
They bought it in 2016 for 650k,,, now they want almost double that,
Crazy price,,, wonder what it will actually sell for?

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/106_baggot_lane_ballsbridge_dublin_4_co_dublin_ireland-234791/

I think they did a load of work on it when they bought it but could it really add €550k?

jill_valentine

riclad wrote: »

Theres a large student accomodation building near o,connell street .
its about 3 years old.
i read they are now taking tourists in part of the building .
obviously many students are now using online acess , using zoom or other apps.
theres no need to rent an expensive room near a college in the city centre .
i think houses will be stable or go up because people will want more space if the are working from home for the next few years .
If you go around the city centre ,theres at least 4 large buildings being
built , for offices and retail .
i wonder will there be any tenants for these new buildings in a years time .
When many shops right now are empty and closed since march.

Agree with the gist, but it's worth noting that the student accommodation rush was always a bit of a fig leaf to get tourist rentals thrown up as quickly and easily as possible anyway to a large extent. I live in the middle of fancy "student" co-share territory and it was always evident the bulk of their business was wheeling suitcases past my bus stop every morning.

(Another conversation altogether, but I'm really struggling to imagine how all those units will be repurposed now. Tourism is a long way off coming back to where it is, students are studying from long distance, and their design couldn't be less appropriate for actually living in post-Covid.)

KennisWhale

Hubertj wrote: »

I think they did a load of work on it when they bought it but could it really add €550k?

No way. I am shocked at that valuation. To me it looks more like an apartment. I was thinking even the 650k looks a bit high on that basis. You said your place was around the corner, how off would the price be, approximately and size wise of your place?

Edit: that being said, in the general area the 650k might be reasonable though 1.2m is completely off what would be considered reasonable.

Both of these are around 850k, pretty close by but IMO far nicer (even if the Baggot Lane place was asking 850k!):

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-albert-place-east-off-grand-canal-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4391704

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/21-erne-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4450300

sanfranbest

KennisWhale wrote: »

No way. I am shocked at that valuation. To me it looks more like an apartment. I was thinking even the 650k looks a bit high on that basis. You said your place was around the corner, how off would the price be, approximately and size wise of your place?

Edit: that being said, in the general area the 650k might be reasonable though 1.2m is completely off what would be considered reasonable.

Both of these are around 850k, pretty close by but IMO far nicer (even if the Baggot Lane place was asking 850k!):

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-albert-place-east-off-grand-canal-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4391704

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/21-erne-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4450300

Totally agree, 1.2m is crazy, and it's a mews in a lane, the other two houses are much nicer.

Smouse156

sanfranbest wrote: »

Wow!
They bought it in 2016 for 650k,,, now they want almost double that,
Crazy price,,, wonder what it will actually sell for?

https://propertypriceregisterireland.com/details/106_baggot_lane_ballsbridge_dublin_4_co_dublin_ireland-234791/

750k

Hubertj

KennisWhale wrote: »

No way. I am shocked at that valuation. To me it looks more like an apartment. I was thinking even the 650k looks a bit high on that basis. You said your place was around the corner, how off would the price be, approximately and size wise of your place?

Edit: that being said, in the general area the 650k might be reasonable though 1.2m is completely off what would be considered reasonable.

Both of these are around 850k, pretty close by but IMO far nicer (even if the Baggot Lane place was asking 850k!):

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/17-albert-place-east-off-grand-canal-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4391704

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/21-erne-street-south-city-centre-dublin-2/4450300

I think my house is 130 sq metres ish. I bought in 2015 and paid similar price, then upgraded kitchen bathrooms etc etc. It’s a great location, few mins walk to baggot st, gcd, town etc. Baggot lane is nice and quiet, doesn’t look the best as the mews are all in different states

The other 2 houses are too close to pearse st. Unfortunately it’s a sh*t hole around there no matter what people say. Different ball game once you cross the canal. But I agree they are nicer houses.

Bass Reeves

Meandyou999 wrote: »

Looking at a 4 bed semi D in Munster, second hand new build home 4 years old. Price is 329k.
Take home pay after tax is 3,200k per month. Have been mortage approved (joint application) have 50k deposit saved and few grand for solicitors fees outside of the deposit.
My questions are:
1. Is the house worth it? Same house sold for 269k 4years ago when it was built.
2. Would i be able to afford to pay the mortgage back over 25 years on my pay.
3. Am i making a big mistake are house prices going to crash?. I have a refundable deposit paid.

Thanks.

Houses in rural have continued to rise over the last 3-5 years. They were slower to recover than Dublin prices so there prices reflect that compared to 4years ago.

Repayments would be about 1220/month over 25years on a 5year fixed rate. That is 38 percent of take home pay. It a bit above what is recommended however on low wage this will always e an issue.

Will houses prices crash Who knows. But those that are most bearish on this consider that WFH will attract people to houses outside larger urban areas. How this will effect rural houses prices is the question

Geuze

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Sigh, I've stated before that i predict a huge economic crash, the crash of the property market will lag behind the general economy, hence why i think it'll drop around 10-15% next year and possibly more the year after.

A bigger crash than the one we are currently in?

Geuze

Timing belt wrote: »

Yes you are correct to say that we don't know the full fall out of the economic crash. If it is short and sharp then there will probably be no impact on the housing market.

If it is a slow then the probability of a implosion in the financial market increases.

IMF forecasts: