Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Springy Turf

GreeBo wrote: »

ok, but follow that idea through.
Build housing on every square inch of land in Dublin, at *some* point you have no more land and yet in an increasing population you still have demand....now what?

It's always going to be supply vs demand and with housing, increasing supply actually increases the demand as the units get cheaper so more people want them.

Its not possible to solve this, no where has.

It's an issue in cities where the number of jobs can support a huge number of people. There might be some level of induced demand from building extra properties, but to be honest, if price is your main deciding factor, you won't go near any of the big cities. On top of that, the accommodation density in Dublin is quite low. Increasing that density close to and in the city centre would be fantastic for Dublin.

Now whether or not Cathal Brugha Barracks is the place to do it is another question entirely.

Rew

PropQueries wrote: »

I would say it's a failure of policy, or a success of policy depending on ones view of the Government's misuse of the land they own within the cities.

For example, David McWilliams wrote an article recently where he stated:

"Cathal Brugha Barracks in Rathmines is perfect for development. It constitutes 42 acres of residential land. The Defence Forces alone maintain some 20,000 acres in total across the state for training purposes – surely less valuable land can be made available in a swap with the Army?"

Why does the army require 42 acres in Rathmines? It couldn't be more central. How many high density social housing units could be built on that site alone? A properly designed social housing development there would probably solve all problems within 2 years.

Link to David McWilliams article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/why-an-irish-mortgage-costs-e80k-more-than-a-german-one/

David McWilliams is not a defence expert (no idea what he's actually an expert in TBH) at best he is naive to the roll the DF play in day to day and emergency operations. The Dept of Defence have massively downsized their foot print over the past 20 years to key central locations such as Cathal Brugha.

Claw Hammer

PropQueries wrote: »

I would say it's a failure of policy, or a success of policy depending on ones view of the Government's misuse of the land they own within the cities.

For example, David McWilliams wrote an article recently where he stated:

"Cathal Brugha Barracks in Rathmines is perfect for development. It constitutes 42 acres of residential land. The Defence Forces alone maintain some 20,000 acres in total across the state for training purposes – surely less valuable land can be made available in a swap with the Army?"

Why does the army require 42 acres in Rathmines? It couldn't be more central. How many high density social housing units could be built on that site alone? A properly designed social housing development there would probably solve all problems within 2 years.

Link to David McWilliams article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/why-an-irish-mortgage-costs-e80k-more-than-a-german-one/

Cathal Brugha barracks is the last of the Army barracks on the southside of Dublin. It is within walking distance of Leinster House. On a number of occasions recently, it was feared that persons engaged in civil demonstration would attempt to storm Leinster House. What could be done is to build housing in Cathal Brugha barracks for serving military personnel. This would preserve the location which is vital for security purposes and also provide housing for groups who cannot afford it otherwise.

PropQueries

GreeBo wrote: »

ok, but follow that idea through.
Build housing on every square inch of land in Dublin, at *some* point you have no more land and yet in an increasing population you still have demand....now what?

It's always going to be supply vs demand and with housing, increasing supply actually increases the demand as the units get cheaper so more people want them.

Its not possible to solve this, no where has.

Well, if they built on the 42 acres in Cathal Brugha Barracks in Rathmines it would be a pretty good start.

In England, they identified enough brownfield sites to build a million homes and that was pre-covid with enough brownfield sites for 18,000 new homes in Barnet, north London alone.

Also, just look at the Dundrum shopping centres (both old one and new one). They could easily build on top of the car parks there. In New York and I think in London, selling so-called 'Air Rights' where they build on top of shopping centres or on top of the rail network in New York were growing in popularity pre-covid.

They could probably build thousands of apartments alone on top of both the Dundrum shopping centres (old and new) and on top of the Clearwater shopping centre in Finglas.

That's if they wanted to of course. So, I don't believe it's due to land being a limited resource in the big cities (i.e. Dublin, London or New York). Just complete mismanagement (On purpose? probably.) of the existing use of land.

Link to Guardian article on browsfield sites here: https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/mar/25/million-homes-could-be-built-on-english-brownfield-sites

PropQueries

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Cathal Brugha barracks is the last of the Army barracks on the southside of Dublin. It is within walking distance of Leinster House. On a number of occasions recently, it was feared that persons engaged in civil demonstration would attempt to storm Leinster House. What could be done is to build housing in Cathal Brugha barracks for serving military personnel. This would preserve the location which is vital for security purposes and also provide housing for groups who cannot afford it otherwise.

But could you say the same for all the e.g. Dublin Bus depots located on prime sites throughout the city?

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

I would say it's a failure of policy, or a success of policy depending on ones view of the Government's misuse of the land they own within the cities.

For example, David McWilliams wrote an article recently where he stated:

"Cathal Brugha Barracks in Rathmines is perfect for development. It constitutes 42 acres of residential land. The Defence Forces alone maintain some 20,000 acres in total across the state for training purposes – surely less valuable land can be made available in a swap with the Army?"

Why does the army require 42 acres in Rathmines? It couldn't be more central. How many high density social housing units could be built on that site alone? A properly designed social housing development there would probably solve all problems within 2 years.

Link to David McWilliams article here: http://www.davidmcwilliams.ie/why-an-irish-mortgage-costs-e80k-more-than-a-german-one/

So it's just a coincidence that all those other European cities of significance have equivalent affordability issues? I doubt there are any prospective home purchasers in any city in Europe - big or small - who are saying they are really happy with how affordable and cheap the houses they are hoping to buy are.

I am currently looking at the idea of buying property in another country and my internal monologue is roughly: 'are they f****ng kidding! it's almost twice the price of my current house and has the same construction quality as a shed.' but with a lot more swearing and expletives.

Bitching about prices and affordability goes with the territory.

breadmonster

just got a call from an estate agent no viewings for the property i was interested in, also said there a good chance we wont have viewings for a few weeks.
Guess thats 2020 done lets see what 2021 brings.

handlemaster

With more severe lock down almost inevitable , will we see a run to get property on the market before prices drop. With the jobs market going to take an even bigger hit, Brexit hitting the skids what else will hold up prices ?

Claw Hammer

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, if they built on the 42 acres in Cathal Brugha Barracks in Rathmines it would be a pretty good start.

]

There are security issues with confiscating Cathal Brugha barracks from the Army.
There is an industrial estate beside Harold's Cross bridge, very near that barracks, which could easily be repurposed for housing.

TheSheriff

handlemaster wrote: »

With more severe lock down almost inevitable , will we see a run to get property on the market before prices drop. With the jobs market going to take an even bigger hit, Brexit hitting the skids what else will hold up prices ?

Why would you see a run on property when there have been no indicators of price drops to date ?

An Ri rua

TheSheriff wrote: »

Why would you see a run on property when there have been no indicators of price drops to date ?

A run 'to get property on the market'...

No price drops as yet, true. Plenty of mortgage approvals fully baked. But no future indicators flashing RED? Dear oh dear.

Get Real

handlemaster wrote: »

With more severe lock down almost inevitable , will we see a run to get property on the market before prices drop. With the jobs market going to take an even bigger hit, Brexit hitting the skids what else will hold up prices ?

The answer is demand will hold up prices.

There may be dips here and there, during severe lockdowns etc. But overall, there's still a demand for housing that was here before covid, and will be here after covid.

There are people affected by job losses, but many of these are in the retail and services sector, that (unfortunately) wouldn't have been eligible for mortgages anyway.

The demand from IT professionals, Health workers, accountants, bus/train/luas drivers, Gardaí, civil servants, truck drivers, and anyone at all who works remotely from home, is still there.

The only difference now is there's a big chunk of people in their late 20s to late 30s, who were looking to buy, now putting away even bigger chunks of money due to reduced day to day spending.

When these people go to purchase property, they'll have bigger amounts of deposits saved, and will be bidding against each other, with supply remaining more or less the same as it has been.

It won't be like c2009-2013, as that's when banks stopped lending due previous dodgy practices. There was no supply of finance. Simultaneously, the demand for investment properties dropped overnight, as amateurs got burned and couldn't afford their repayments. So demand plummeted.

This time, its not speculative demand. Just simply people wanting their own place, and they'll have the money behind them. (just my theory tbh, I could be way off)

handlemaster

TheSheriff wrote: »

Why would you see a run on property when there have been no indicators of price drops to date ?

so true and until the price drop there is no indicators , is that what you are saying ?

In may the unemployment rate was 28.2 % , in July it was 22.5 % it is now at 15.3 % . More payments are been made on welfare and propping up businesses. This makes it nearly impossible for the government to make further moves to prompt the economy up. More money has been spend of Covid response than on the bank crises or soon will be. What will happen with another lock down happens as it will ? Brexit is just a mess and nobody is talking about all eyes are on covid but Ireland is heavily depended on trade with the UK. Bank lending with tighten , less people will want to buy thinking prices will drop further was with 2008 + the rest wont have jobs or case to buy.

The real question is why would prices not drop ?

TheSheriff

An Ri rua wrote: »

A run 'to get property on the market'...

No price drops as yet, true. Plenty of mortgage approvals fully baked. But no future indicators flashing RED? Dear oh dear.

But things have been flashing red for nine months now.

The market is not behaving as expected.

cubatahavana

fliball123 wrote: »

the doomsayers will be pissing in their cornflakes this morning

I have to use this sometime

Shoden

TheSheriff wrote: »

But things have been flashing red for nine months now.

The market is not behaving as expected.

I genuinely think that a lot of people are sick of renting. Renting became unbearable for a lot of people since the start of lockdown. So you have a lot of people said feck this I need a place now and started saving at an increased rate due to nowhere being open. That's my take anyway!

Milena009

Shoden wrote: »

I genuinely think that a lot of people are sick of renting. Renting became unbearable for a lot of people since the start of lockdown. So you have a lot of people said feck this I need a place now and started saving at an increased rate due to nowhere being open. That's my take anyway!

I think i somewhat fall into this category.

There is only so much online shopping you can do and not get bored

While we were vaguely thinking of getting a place in 2/3 years at least the covid did speed it up and we are saving at higher rate than we were as well as the HTB being extended into 2021 has prompted speed on this.

TheSheriff

Shoden wrote: »

I genuinely think that a lot of people are sick of renting. Renting became unbearable for a lot of people since the start of lockdown. So you have a lot of people said feck this I need a place now and started saving at an increased rate due to nowhere being open. That's my take anyway!

Ditto for all of my friend group.

Most got approval and bought over the last year. For many, covid has given them much more money in their bank accounts with holidays, weddings etc. cancelled.

cnocbui

handlemaster wrote: »

...

The real question is why would prices not drop ?

Because even factoring in all the negatives, demand could still outstrip supply.

TheSheriff

handlemaster wrote: »

so true and until the price drop there is no indicators , is that what you are saying ?

In may the unemployment rate was 28.2 % , in July it was 22.5 % it is now at 15.3 % . More payments are been made on welfare and propping up businesses. This makes it nearly impossible for the government to make further moves to prompt the economy up. More money has been spend of Covid response than on the bank crises or soon will be. What will happen with another lock down happens as it will ? Brexit is just a mess and nobody is talking about all eyes are on covid but Ireland is heavily depended on trade with the UK. Bank lending with tighten , less people will want to buy thinking prices will drop further was with 2008 + the rest wont have jobs or case to buy.

The real question is why would prices not drop ?

I don't know anymore, I expected we'd see a 5-10% drop by now.

It's obvious we (a) don't have enough supply of houses and (b) have an awful lot of people whom are financially not impacted at all by CV19 and are willing to purchase a home

cnocbui

cubatahavana wrote: »

I have to use this sometime

I'd skip breakfast, if I was someone who ate breakfast in the first place.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Ditto for all of my friend group.

Most got approval and bought over the last year. For many, covid has given them much more money in their bank accounts with holidays, weddings etc. cancelled.

But if they were previously renting wouldn't that just result in a near zero sum impact on the demand/supply equation? If they purchase a home, that would just free up their old rented home back into the marketplace.

Timing belt

With all the stimulus that has been pumped into the Europe there is an expectation of Growth and because of this house prices are not dropping.

If covid continues and there is no vaccine then this sentiment will quickly disappear and we will start to see permanent Job losses which will impact house prices.

cnocbui

TheSheriff wrote: »

I don't know anymore, I expected we'd see a 5-10% drop by now.

It's obvious we (a) don't have enough supply of houses and (b) have an awful lot of people whom are financially not impacted at all by CV19 and are willing to purchase a home

From the other thread only a couple of hours ago:

Pink11 wrote: »

...

From my experience of looking for the last 3-4 months, it's a very good time to sell. All houses are going for well over asking.

PropQueries

Claw Hammer wrote: »

Cathal Brugha barracks is the last of the Army barracks on the southside of Dublin. It is within walking distance of Leinster House. On a number of occasions recently, it was feared that persons engaged in civil demonstration would attempt to storm Leinster House. What could be done is to build housing in Cathal Brugha barracks for serving military personnel. This would preserve the location which is vital for security purposes and also provide housing for groups who cannot afford it otherwise.

But what if they exchanged the 42 acres they occupy at Cathal Brugha Barracks for 42 acres in Phoenix Park. Actually, give them 100 acres to sweeten the deal. Phoenix Park has 1,752 acres. Then, they would still be within walking distance of Leinster House if security concerns are indeed the prime reason?

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

But if they were previously renting wouldn't that just result in a near zero sum impact on the demand/supply equation? If they purchase a home, that would just free up their old rented home back into the marketplace.

Some people don't consider an apartment a home. That looks to be a major part of the shift - going from apartment to a house.

Also from the other thread, moments ago:

MattDamonIsOK wrote: »

Similar situation to you Shoden.

Myself and her are moving out of Dublin apartment, going to rent it.

Taking a house up north where I’ve family in a new build development, 4 bed detached £210K. Excellent value compared with the sky high prices in surrounding areas outside of Dublin down here.
...

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

But if they were previously renting wouldn't that just result in a near zero sum impact on the demand/supply equation? If they purchase a home, that would just free up their old rented home back into the marketplace.

I think you could further segregate the supply / demand side markets into rent versus buy. I don't think it's as simple as a loss in one results in a gain in the other.

handlemaster

cnocbui wrote: »

Because even factoring in all the negatives, demand could still outstrip supply.

Were you not here in 2007/2008. It was the same argument then.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

But what if they exchanged the 42 acres they occupy at Cathal Brugha Barracks for 42 acres in Phoenix Park. Actually, give them 100 acres to sweeten the deal. Phoenix Park has 1,752 acres. Then, they would still be within walking distance of Leinster House if security concerns are indeed the prime reason?

I thought you were of the opinion we had enough housing so why would we need that

fliball123

handlemaster wrote: »

Were you not herebinn2007/2008. It was the same argument then.

Eh no we had an oversupply in 2008 the same is not the case now