Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Shelga

optogirl wrote: »

Yep. Hard to understand why it was priced at 265. To get some interest in it?

I was wondering that too, I really don't know. Because they just wasted your time and mine- don't know about you but I certainly can't afford €310k. Before I viewed it I looked at what other houses very near there had sold for on the property register, and they were all €290k+, for houses that weren't even as nice as that one, and smaller.

It's really annoying actually. Maybe they want to be able to say "this house sold for €40k more than asking", even though the asking price was not reflective of reality? Or to encourage a bidding war?

TheSheriff

salamiii wrote: »

unemployment will keep rising.more houses will come on market.more rentals will come out as people move out due to high rents

you looking at the next six months for this to happen


you need to save up cash as the rainy day is coming

Is that you neutralguy?

HotDudeLife

stefanovich wrote: »

I'm being sarcastic! ANYTHING BUT CASH

In fairness there is zero chance of inflation in the short term (1-2years).


I think those sitting on a decent amount of cash (200k mark) will be in a good position to purchase in the next 18months.

HotDudeLife

TheSheriff wrote: »

Is that you neutralguy?

lol, whoever it is, they are making sense, some people on here and people in general will be in for a serious reality check when the economy tanks and the stock market no longer gives decent returns as it is due for a massive correction.

TheSheriff

HotDudeLife wrote: »

lol, whoever it is, they are making sense, some people on here and people in general will be in for a serious reality check when the economy tanks and the stock market no longer gives decent returns as it is due for a massive correction.

Everything has been due for a massive correction for years now to be honest. I'd hedge my bets that in six months we'll be in the same state of static movement we've been in the past year.

This 'massive correction' you keep referring too sure is taking it's time for something so massive.

Marius34

HotDudeLife wrote: »

lol, whoever it is, they are making sense, some people on here and people in general will be in for a serious reality check when the economy tanks and the stock market no longer gives decent returns as it is due for a massive correction.

With such expertise you can make a fortune by shorting stocks.

Computer Science Student

Quick question, what is the most complete resource to get every property sold in Ireland in the last 5 years ? (in any format)

Marius34

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Quick question, what is the most complete resource to get every property sold in Ireland in the last 5 years ? (in any format)

https://www.propertypriceregister.ie/
You can download csv file.
It has last 10 years of data.
I have done number of analytics on that dataset, in case you have any queries.

Timing belt

HotDudeLife wrote: »

lol, whoever it is, they are making sense, some people on here and people in general will be in for a serious reality check when the economy tanks and the stock market no longer gives decent returns as it is due for a massive correction.

Interest rates will be zero on deposits for years to come and I also think stock markets will crash as logic is gone out the window with valuations but don’t see house prices going through the floor and think we will see inflation in the economy but it will be on food and transport.

Donald Trump

Marius34 wrote: »

With such expertise you can make a fortune by shorting stocks.

The timing is the important thing. If you want to short the market then you can do so, but if you get the timing wrong, you'll lose your shirt.



That said, saying that a crash is coming is also a meaningless prediction without giving a timeframe...........I can say that a crash is coming and I will be almost surely correct within my lifetime that there will be some form of a crash.


Is there a bubble in the market - likely yes. When will it burst? It might not do so for a relatively long time. It will depend on the supply of money into it. Central banks might keep pumping in liquidity if they can't reach their target inflation. People with money will want to put it somewhere if rates are low (or zero). Japan has had a problem of deflation and negative rates at the short end for a long time now.

Timing belt

Donald Trump wrote: »

The timing is the important thing. If you want to short the market then you can do so, but if you get the timing wrong, you'll lose your shirt.



That said, saying that a crash is coming is also a meaningless prediction without giving a timeframe...........I can say that a crash is coming and I will be almost surely correct within my lifetime that there will be some form of a crash.


Is there a bubble in the market - likely yes. When will it burst? It might not do so for a relatively long time. It will depend on the supply of money into it. Central banks might keep pumping in liquidity if they can't reach their target inflation. People with money will want to put it somewhere if rates are low (or zero). Japan has had a problem of deflation and negative rates at the short end for a long time now.

End of November Is my prediction for a stock market crash

Donald Trump

Timing belt wrote: »

End of November Is my prediction for a stock market crash

Markets in November will have more chance of affected by the outcome of the US election.



Are you talking about a global crash or European or Irish?


Brexit will of course be a factor on the latter two.

Timing belt

Donald Trump wrote: »

Markets in November will have more chance of affected by the outcome of the US election.



Are you talking about a global crash or European or Irish?

Mainly tech stocks in US

Donald Trump

Timing belt wrote: »

Mainly tech stocks in US

ok. Fair play to you for giving an actual prediction! I don't have one myself. I'm not keeping on top of things enough to do that

Timing belt

Donald Trump wrote: »

ok. Fair play to you for giving an actual prediction! I don't have one myself. I'm not keeping on top of things enough to do that

Logic behind it is that big players are moving out whilst individuals are buying and I think they are massively overvalued and all it takes is a disputed election result to tip it as there will be no stimulus while that happens.

Marius34

Timing belt wrote: »

End of November Is my prediction for a stock market crash

You maid a mistake by posting this.
Because I will remind you this :-)

Hope you will not disappear, as most guys who predicting crash with certainty disappear... :-)

Timing belt

Marius34 wrote: »

You maid a mistake by posting this.
Because I will remind you this :-)

Hope you will not disappear, as most guys who predicting crash with certainty disappear... :-)

I will be here I might be wrong but that is what I see in the stock market. Won’t impact houses prices in Ireland tho :-)

pearcider

HotDudeLife wrote: »

In fairness there is zero chance of inflation in the short term (1-2years).


I think those sitting on a decent amount of cash (200k mark) will be in a good position to purchase in the next 18months.

Zero chance of inflation in the next two years that’s not what the markets are saying. The fact is inflation is rising dramatically in things you need like food. Airline tickets are down but who wants to fly? Copper is at a 5 year high as are soybeans. Wheat is at a 6 year high. Silver is at a 10 year and that great harbinger of inflation gold is at all time highs. Zero chance of inflation. I think not. Article below shows a major bull market beginning in commodities.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/soybeans-corn-and-wheat-prices-are-set-to-rise-in-2021-51602851401

Donald Trump

Timing belt wrote: »

I will be here I might be wrong but that is what I see in the stock market. Won’t impact houses prices in Ireland tho :-)

We might be surprised at the effects of US tech catching a cold would have on house prices here. Shareholders needing to be kept happy and a few thousand laid of high paying jobs here could easily have a discernible effect around Dublin city centre which would propagate outwards from there too.

Timing belt

pearcider wrote: »

Zero chance of inflation in the next two years that’s not what the markets are saying. The fact is inflation is rising dramatically in things you need like food. Airline tickets are down but who wants to fly? Copper is at a 5 year high as are soybeans. Wheat is at a 6 year high. Silver is at a 10 year and that great harbinger of inflation gold is at all time highs. Zero chance of inflation. I think not. Article below shows a major bull market beginning in commodities.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/soybeans-corn-and-wheat-prices-are-set-to-rise-in-2021-51602851401

The inflation is masked by the drop in oil. And governments can’t spend like they are without inflation hitting the wider economy. Previous QE went into the financial institutions that rebuild there balance sheets this time it is hitting the public domain via gov spending

Timing belt

Donald Trump wrote: »

We might be surprised at the effects of US tech catching a cold would have on house prices here. Shareholders needing to be kept happy and a few thousand laid of high paying jobs here could easily have a discernible effect around Dublin city centre which would propagate outwards from there too.

Very true but I don’t think it will result in cost cutting even those companies realise their stocks are just overvalued. It will be a cold not a flu

cnocbui

pearcider wrote: »

Zero chance of inflation in the next two years that’s not what the markets are saying. The fact is inflation is rising dramatically in things you need like food. Airline tickets are down but who wants to fly? Copper is at a 5 year high as are soybeans. Wheat is at a 6 year high. Silver is at a 10 year and that great harbinger of inflation gold is at all time highs. Zero chance of inflation. I think not. Article below shows a major bull market beginning in commodities.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/soybeans-corn-and-wheat-prices-are-set-to-rise-in-2021-51602851401

Good thing I don't eat copper, silver or gold then. I avoid gluten so I'm not worried about wheat, but damn, soya beans. I do go through about two bottles of soy sauce a year. This could get ugly.

Food prices are not rising dramatically and nor is inflation. Kids these days...:rolleyes:

Timing belt

cnocbui wrote: »

Good thing I don't eat copper, silver or gold then. I avoid gluten so I'm not worried about wheat, but damn, soya beans. I do go through about two bottles of soy sauce a year. This could get ugly.

Food prices are not rising dramatically and nor is inflation. Kids these days...:rolleyes:

Take into account the drop in oil prices which is one of the biggest costs in food production and getting foods to the shelves on our shops.

cnocbui

I certainly take it into account every time I fill up my car and only having to pay €450 for a heating kerosene refill the other day. Previous one was €675.

KennisWhale

We put around 40 quid petrol in the car and it's lasting us a month of driving in Dublin at the moment. Insurance only 37 per month as well.

On inflation, I remember when you used to want to listen to a specific song and buying an album or a single would be around 15 or 5 pounds / euro for the CD / cassette. Now we have streaming for 10euro per month for all the songs you want ad free. Similarly, with watching a specific video movie it involved renting that particular movie whereas now you get hundreds of movies for 12euro per month. As far as I can anecdotally assess off the top of my head, food doesn't seem to have gotten more expensive the last 10 years since the retailers started doing loss leaders during the recession. Good quality electronics aren't super expensive anymore. Finally, even newspapers had to be bought to get news but now you can pay online subscriptions which cost less than the daily print editions.

The cost of living has gotten a lot cheaper although people might find this hard to believe.

pearcider

KennisWhale wrote: »

We put around 40 quid petrol in the car and it's lasting us a month of driving in Dublin at the moment. Insurance only 37 per month as well.

On inflation, I remember when you used to want to listen to a specific song and buying an album or a single would be around 15 or 5 pounds / euro for the CD / cassette. Now we have streaming for 10euro per month for all the songs you want ad free. Similarly, with watching a specific video movie it involved renting that particular movie whereas now you get hundreds of movies for 12euro per month. As far as I can anecdotally assess off the top of my head, food doesn't seem to have gotten more expensive the last 10 years since the retailers started doing loss leaders during the recession. Good quality electronics aren't super expensive anymore. Finally, even newspapers had to be bought to get news but now you can pay online subscriptions which cost less than the daily print editions.

The cost of living has gotten a lot cheaper although people might find this hard to believe.

Oil is cheap for obvious reasons enjoy it while it lasts. Consumer electronics and music are discretionary. Food, health care, education, energy and housing less so.

Timing belt

Overall CPI is not high which is what you would expect with a recession and the fact that oil prices have dropped but if you have a look at the main consumer items and compare them to last year you can already see Inflation.



Remember this is with a depressed oil price and strong Euro (on account of the amount of stimulus undertaken in Europe)

Output has slowed down due to Covid and there is more money in circulation which means more money chasing less goods.

It will be Q1/Q2 next year when will start seeing a increase in CPI and the big question is will this lead to wage inflation because if it does then house prices will go up.

combat14

Looks life hopes of any kind of proper vaccines are way off

Covid-19 vaccine trials not designed to detect risk reduction: expert

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1022/1173108-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness/

we will all be able to save a ton of money and drive house prices up even more with all the lock downs to come or else the economy will be absolutely wrecked in the next 2 years to come ...

KennisWhale

pearcider wrote: »

Oil is cheap for obvious reasons enjoy it while it lasts. Consumer electronics and music are discretionary. Food, health care, education, energy and housing less so.

Mobile phones and internet are definitely not discretionary and I hope inflation metrics do include these items otherwise I would question the barometer for inflation, but yes, music and films are.

Graham

Mod Note

friendly reminder this is the Accommodation & Property forum and the topic is "Irish Property Market 2020".

Some off-topic posts deleted. One of the medical forums may be a better venue for discussing the effect of Soya on your man bits.