Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Iceman29

The_Brood wrote: »

This is insane. Any house we are placing bids on in Dublin (matching the asking price) sky rockets dramatically high, it's like we have endless competition of people loaded up to their eyeballs with money buying up everywhere. Insanely disappointing because you get a mortgage, you look at prices that match that, but the listed prices mean absolutely nothing as demand is off the charts and the houses are going for way higher than what they are listed as.

haha not what i'm seeing.... can you provide evidence of such claims?
I can give plenty of examples of houses going for well under the asking

The_Brood

Iceman29 wrote: »

haha not what i'm seeing.... can you provide evidence of such claims?
I can give plenty of examples of houses going for well under the asking

What evidence? I am sharing my experiences. We have bid on 10 different houses now in different areas and not only have we been outbid every time but the final sale price is dramatically above the asking.

guyfawkes5

The_Brood wrote: »

This is insane. Any house we are placing bids on in Dublin (matching the asking price) sky rockets dramatically high, it's like we have endless competition of people loaded up to their eyeballs with money buying up everywhere. Insanely disappointing because you get a mortgage, you look at prices that match that, but the listed prices mean absolutely nothing as demand is off the charts and the houses are going for way higher than what they are listed as.

I know the feeling from looking late last year and earlier this year.

Some of it will be properties with a 'get people in the door' asking price that doesn't reflect what the property will realistically go for. The only thing you can do is research PPR for comparable properties in the same area to prepare for stuff going over asking price. You'll get anomalies but largely that kept me from getting overly down when it seemed like everything's going above asking.

fliball123

The_Brood wrote: »

What evidence? I am sharing my experiences. We have bid on 10 different houses now in different areas and not only have we been outbid every time but the final sale price is dramatically above the asking.

I am finding that as well. Its crazy prices seem to going sale agreed well above asking prices

random_banter

fliball123 wrote: »

I am finding that as well. Its crazy prices seem to going sale agreed well above asking prices

Viewed a house in Goatstown on Saturday. First day of viewings. A steady stream of people all day from 9.30AM according to the EA. By the time we got there at lunch time there were 3 bids in already and it was at 20k over asking.

Lovely house, great standard inside, did feel the asking was a little low for what it was, compared to prices in the area. So knew it would go for a little more, but very interested to see where the bidding goes to. It certainly feels like there are a lot of people pushing to get into houses with pent up demand from lockdown.

strmin

Viewed a house on Saturday. It was the first viewing. Wanted to offer asking today just to find out that there are multiple bidders already and a current offer is 20k above asking. House is around 600k. Madness.

Where are all those experts who predicted property crash due to Covid19?

brisan

random_banter wrote: »

Viewed a house in Goatstown on Saturday. First day of viewings. A steady stream of people all day from 9.30AM according to the EA. By the time we got there at lunch time there were 3 bids in already and it was at 20k over asking.

Lovely house, great standard inside, did feel the asking was a little low for what it was, compared to prices in the area. So knew it would go for a little more, but very interested to see where the bidding goes to. It certainly feels like there are a lot of people pushing to get into houses with pent up demand from lockdown.

People who got approval before lockdown using it up before it runs out.
They may not get it a second time if the banks put a squeeze on credit.
However with a lot of people out of the running due to PUP and TWSS I would say anybody applying now or reapplying once PUP or TWSS does not affect them should have no difficulty getting a mortgage

Ozark707

The_Brood wrote: »

This is insane. Any house we are placing bids on in Dublin (matching the asking price) sky rockets dramatically high, it's like we have endless competition of people loaded up to their eyeballs with money buying up everywhere. Insanely disappointing because you get a mortgage, you look at prices that match that, but the listed prices mean absolutely nothing as demand is off the charts and the houses are going for way higher than what they are listed as.

Are you able to indicate what price range (approximately) this is in?

0gac3yjefb5sv7

I echo the competitiveness in the Dublin market. Most apts & houses going 8-10pc above asking.

brisan

strmin wrote: »

Viewed a house on Saturday. It was the first viewing. Wanted to offer asking today just to find out that there are multiple bidders already and a current offer is 20k above asking. House is around 600k. Madness.

Where are all those experts who predicted property crash due to Covid19?

early days into the recession
Prices took 4 years to flatten in 2008
House prices have never held steady anywhere in the world during a recession
Maybe Ireland will buck the trend

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

early days into the recession
Prices took 4 years to flatten in 2008
House prices have never held steady anywhere in the world during a recession
Maybe Ireland will buck the trend

yeah but the last recession didnt have a steep upward curve before dropping. We are now 4/5 months into the corona virus and prices seem to be going up

Assetbacked

https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E22AQEG-r_haUcBxA/feedshare-shrink_2048_1536/0?e=1598486400&v=beta&t=-6_vzEjOwWzl3OW_sxM86aoKVU1dbdOx-1cL8SE1G_M

Is this viewable? It is Owen O'Reilly's Q2 rental market graphic. He is an estate agent who seems to operate to arrange for tenants in the D2/D4 areas.

Q2 2020 compared to Q2 2019, from his report;

• 1 bed apartments 4% lower to rent (1790 p/m).
• 2 bed apartments 15% lower to rent (2320 p/m).
• 3 bed apartments 14% higher to rent (3450 p/m).
• Agreed rental values 10.2% lower and household salaries 23% lower.
• Nationalities of tenants; Irish 26%, European 25%, American 19%, South African 19%, Middle East 10%, Indian 2%, South African 1% and company let 1%.

Obviously, Owen's figures would be based on D2/D4 rentals but even on good salaries, I think those rental prices have to come down by more. I don't know too many people who can afford a one bed at 1790 and even paying 1160 to share a place with someone is a lot; you wouldn't be far off paying a mortgage for the same price as renting a room in a Dublin apartment!

In fact, looking at this 1 bed in the Docklands, paying the monthly mortgage (borrowing 270k, 30k deposit) would be the same as renting a room in a shared place https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/ifsc/block-d-203-castleforbes-square-ifsc-dublin-2365652/

GreeBo

I got a valuation last week for a mortgage switch and we are +50K in just under a year, including a slight dip from Covid.
south dublin area.

brisan

fliball123 wrote: »

yeah but the last recession didnt have a steep upward curve before dropping. We are now 4/5 months into the corona virus and prices seem to be going up

Prices rose quite a bit in 06-07.
As this is a different type of recession and the Government is basically putting the economy on life support the telling times will be when that life support stops.

GreeBo

Assetbacked wrote: »

. I don't know too many people who can afford a one bed at 1790 and even paying 1160 to share a place with someone is a lot; you wouldn't be far off paying a mortgage for the same price as renting a room in a Dublin apartment!

It doesnt need too many people though, its just needs 1 more than the supply.

guyfawkes5

GreeBo wrote: »

I got a valuation last week for a mortgage switch and we are +50K in just under a year, including a slight dip from Covid.
south dublin area.

Usually the valuation will include links to other properties to justify the value increase. Were these properties sold before or after lockdown, if you don't mind me asking?

fliball123

brisan wrote: »

Prices rose quite a bit in 06-07.
As this is a different type of recession and the Government is basically putting the economy on life support the telling times will be when that life support stops.

true I just thought we would of seen some kind of drop by now

Assetbacked

GreeBo wrote: »

It doesnt need too many people though, its just needs 1 more than the supply.

But the market is constrained by State intervention I would argue which means that, yes it is true, we only need one person to pay it to justify it. But there is no objective barometer which measures this as sustainable for the working renter to be told to work for their salary and cough up such a large chunk of it in rent, as well as losing 50% in tax over a pretty low entry point.

Hyper growth at all costs, measured by GDP, is a race to the bottom and demands constant immigration in order to achieve the GDP gains. The longer one spends in the system, the more frustrating the situation becomes, which is why I find a lot of people only coming to Ireland for a few years and then moving on. If you stripped away the demand, as covid is attempting to do, very quickly these types of rents will plummet in my view, for the reason being that they do not align with the salaries of the workers upon whom they are reliant.

Owen's graphic somewhat aligns with what I saw and posted in the other thread; rent drops of 10-15% in the space of 4 months of covid, this is substantial and trends towards 30% lower by next year, which is looking like the earliest travel resumes, people are returning to the office full time etc.

paulieeye

Iceman29 wrote: »

haha not what i'm seeing.... can you provide evidence of such claims?
I can give plenty of examples of houses going for well under the asking

Evidence?? alright judge judy, this isnt a court of law, lad was just sharing his thoughts

Iceman29

Just took a random list of houses and compared them to the asking in the last month.........It seems to be really conflicting with a few people in here......




18 THE BEECHES Donaghmede ASKING 369 SOLD 380 DIFF 11
4 BROC HALL ORIGINAL ASKING 325 NEW ASKING 295 SOLD 267 DIFF-28
1 CYPRESS PARK  ASKING 595 SOLD 570 -25
214 KILDARE RD  ASKING 299 SOLD 272 -27
22 BRENNANSTOWN AVENUE  ASKING 699 SOLD 650 -49
26 TALLOW HALL  ASKING 225 SOLD 240 15
99 HOWTH RD  ASKING 450 SOLD 432 -18
ASHFORD COTTAGE ORIGINAL ASKING 1000000 ASKING 975 SOLD 950 -25
37 HOWTH LODGE  ORIGINAL ASKING 625 ASKING 595 550 -45
44 ST HELEN'S ROAD ASKING 925 SOLD 850 -75

ElBastardo1

Iceman29 wrote: »

haha not what i'm seeing.... can you provide evidence of such claims?
I can give plenty of examples of houses going for well under the asking

I inquired about a house that had an asking of 395k in South Dublin. Previous house on the road was sold 366k back in Feb. Rang today to find the latest offer was 440k. i was surprised as the house is in need of a lot of work.

Graham

Where are you getting those stats Iceman29?

Are they actual sale prices, or changes in asking prices?

GreeBo

Assetbacked wrote: »

But the market is constrained by State intervention I would argue which means that, yes it is true, we only need one person to pay it to justify it. But there is no objective barometer which measures this as sustainable for the working renter to be told to work for their salary and cough up such a large chunk of it in rent, as well as losing 50% in tax over a pretty low entry point.

Hyper growth at all costs, measured by GDP, is a race to the bottom and demands constant immigration in order to achieve the GDP gains. The longer one spends in the system, the more frustrating the situation becomes, which is why I find a lot of people only coming to Ireland for a few years and then moving on. If you stripped away the demand, as covid is attempting to do, very quickly these types of rents will plummet in my view, for the reason being that they do not align with the salaries of the workers upon whom they are reliant.

Owen's graphic somewhat aligns with what I saw and posted in the other thread; rent drops of 10-15% in the space of 4 months of covid, this is substantial and trends towards 30% lower by next year, which is looking like the earliest travel resumes, people are returning to the office full time etc.

Define what you mean by "state intervention" here?

Is there ever an objective barometer for things like property?
You are basically arguing that there cant be expensive things because average people cant afford them...I dont see the logic myself tbh.

I dont understand how you think that rent doesnt align with the salaries of the renters? What are you basing this on?
Unless you think an average worker should be expecting to live in 2 of the most prestigious parts of the capital city?

GreeBo

guyfawkes5 wrote: »

Usually the valuation will include links to other properties to justify the value increase. Were these properties sold before or after lockdown, if you don't mind me asking?

I think he only used 2 properties and one is still for sale.
The other had a value of 600K more than ours, so he was certainly bookending!

Hubertj

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/image/C4E22AQEG-r_haUcBxA/feedshare-shrink_2048_1536/0?e=1598486400&v=beta&t=-6_vzEjOwWzl3OW_sxM86aoKVU1dbdOx-1cL8SE1G_M

Is this viewable? It is Owen O'Reilly's Q2 rental market graphic. He is an estate agent who seems to operate to arrange for tenants in the D2/D4 areas.

Q2 2020 compared to Q2 2019, from his report;

• 1 bed apartments 4% lower to rent (1790 p/m).
• 2 bed apartments 15% lower to rent (2320 p/m).
• 3 bed apartments 14% higher to rent (3450 p/m).
• Agreed rental values 10.2% lower and household salaries 23% lower.
• Nationalities of tenants; Irish 26%, European 25%, American 19%, South African 19%, Middle East 10%, Indian 2%, South African 1% and company let 1%.

Obviously, Owen's figures would be based on D2/D4 rentals but even on good salaries, I think those rental prices have to come down by more. I don't know too many people who can afford a one bed at 1790 and even paying 1160 to share a place with someone is a lot; you wouldn't be far off paying a mortgage for the same price as renting a room in a Dublin apartment!

In fact, looking at this 1 bed in the Docklands, paying the monthly mortgage (borrowing 270k, 30k deposit) would be the same as renting a room in a shared place https://www.daft.ie/dublin/apartments-for-sale/ifsc/block-d-203-castleforbes-square-ifsc-dublin-2365652/

Interesting stats. Would be good to see how many units of each type he actually let during the quarter. Along with how long it took to let a unit vs pre COVID

Iceman29

Graham wrote: »

Where are you getting those stats Iceman29?

Are they actual sale prices, or changes in asking prices?

They are the asking prices and selling price .... sorry but the format is awful when you transfer them from excel

Graham

From the property price register?

Iceman29

Graham wrote: »

From the property price register?

yeah

Cyrus

Iceman29 wrote: »

Just took a random list of houses and compared them to the asking in the last month.........It seems to be really conflicting with a few people in here......




18 THE BEECHES Donaghmede ASKING 369 SOLD 380 DIFF 11
4 BROC HALL ORIGINAL ASKING 325 NEW ASKING 295 SOLD 267 DIFF-28
1 CYPRESS PARK  ASKING 595 SOLD 570 -25
214 KILDARE RD  ASKING 299 SOLD 272 -27
22 BRENNANSTOWN AVENUE  ASKING 699 SOLD 650 -49
26 TALLOW HALL  ASKING 225 SOLD 240 15
99 HOWTH RD  ASKING 450 SOLD 432 -18
ASHFORD COTTAGE ORIGINAL ASKING 1000000 ASKING 975 SOLD 950 -25
37 HOWTH LODGE  ORIGINAL ASKING 625 ASKING 595 550 -45
44 ST HELEN'S ROAD ASKING 925 SOLD 850 -75

random? and they all showed what you wanted them to show?

well colour me shocked :pac:

we have had this debate with you before, it tells very little, if prices are dropping itll show up on the PPR.

Properties achieving more or less than asking prices isnt good data.

we were selling an apartment 3.5 years ago and were encouraged to put it on below a certain price to garner interest even though we werent prepared to sell for less than that price +65k.

Iceman29

Cyrus wrote: »

random? and they all showed what you wanted them to show?

well colour me shocked :pac:

we have had this debate with you before, it tells very little, if prices are dropping itll show up on the PPR.

Properties achieving more or less than asking prices isnt good data.

we were selling an apartment 3.5 years ago and were encouraged to put it on below a certain price to garner interest even though we werent prepared to sell for less than that price +65k.

Not you again........
if you cared to actually read the list instead of just going ahead with your own agenda you would notice that two on that list actually went for more than asking.......The sold prices are from the PPR,if you were actually paying attention to the thread....... so yes, the PPR is showing a major drop in house prices.....but maybe you should keep your head in the sand and just keep spouting nonsense in here