Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Potatoeman

They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.

Wanderer78

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Our property issues have virtually nothing to do with the welfare class, but more to do with the rentier classes, particularly the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), whos prime objective is to continually engage in activities that cause asset price inflation

Potatoeman wrote: »

They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.

......

Taylor365

Potatoeman wrote: »

They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.

And have the self esteem of a wet sandwich.

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Our property issues have virtually nothing to do with the welfare class, but more to do with the rentier classes, particularly the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), whos prime objective is to continually engage in activities that cause asset price inflation

It's pure policy. Drive the amateur investor out and cater to the big REITs. 1 or 2 tenants over-hold for a year, no problem to them.

Wanderer78

Taylor365 wrote: »

And have the self esteem of a wet sandwich.

It's pure policy. Drive the amateur investor out and cater to the big REITs. 1 or 2 tenants over-hold for a year, no problem to them.

i think its something worse than that, our politicians believe theyre doing the right thing, its coming from dangerous advice

Timing belt

Potatoeman wrote: »

They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.

Who said they are free homes I am taking about the government putting in a floor on the market to give builders assurances that the properties will sell by saying they will buy at x in the event of not selling. This would mean a lot more homes for people to buy and a reduction of rent making it easier for renters to save.


Even if the government bought the houses and rented them it would be a better situation than paying HAP forever and a day and pushing rents higher.

Brianmwalker

Timing belt wrote: »

Who said they are free homes I am taking about the government putting in a floor on the market to give builders assurances that the properties will sell by saying they will buy at x in the event of not selling. This would mean a lot more homes for people to buy and a reduction of rent making it easier for renters to save.


Even if the government bought the houses and rented them it would be a better situation than paying HAP forever and a day and pushing rents higher.

They'd set the floor close to the ceiling lol

PropQueries

Potatoeman wrote: »

They would need to reduce the number of won’t work rather than can’t work to get any public support for that. There are couples working in Dublin that can’t afford a home and renting at inflated prices. If the government started giving free houses why bother working just sign on and get a free house from the state then do a few cash in jobs for extra money.

In 2019, the total number of long-term unemployed people in Ireland stood at c. 50,000 and many of these would already live in social housing. There's c. 70,000 on the social housing waiting list so many on the social housing waiting list are already working.

In 2019, unemployment benefits only accounts for 10% - 15% of the total welfare budget. The rest is spent on pensions, children's allowance, working family payments etc. i.e. a significant percentage of the 'welfare' budget is welfare payments for the so-called middle classes.

Two weeks ago, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Simon Coveney, said "there could be as many people in his department on the Working Family Payment as in the whole of the Defence Forces."

Link here to Simon Coveney article: https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/coveney-many-civil-servants-in-my-department-are-on-family-income-top-up-like-members-of-defence-forces-39601376.html

enricoh

Disability allowance is where it's at, the dole is for amateurs! No more mickey mouse courses or schemes once you get on the disability!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40019072.html%3ftype=amp
The number of people who receive the allowance has grown by nearly 10% over the past two years - from just under 134,000 in 2017, to nearly 141,000 in 2018, to almost 147,000 last year.

combat14

enricoh wrote: »

Disability allowance is where it's at, the dole is for amateurs! No more mickey mouse courses or schemes once you get on the disability!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishexaminer.com/news/arid-40019072.html%3ftype=amp
The number of people who receive the allowance has grown by nearly 10% over the past two years - from just under 134,000 in 2017, to nearly 141,000 in 2018, to almost 147,000 last year.

wow that's a big increase - there are so many shades of disability with a bit of imagination, technology and retraining surely a good portion of this number could eventually productively reenter the work force .....

probably be fleeced for even suggesting that in modern PC ireland

Hubertj

combat14 wrote: »

wow that's a big increase - there are so many shades of disability with a bit of imagination, technology and retraining surely a good portion of this number could eventually productively reenter the work force .....

probably be fleeced for even suggesting that in modern PC ireland

My sister was/is a non-functioning alcoholic. I believe she qualified for disability allowance at 1 stage...... mad stuff altogether.
Anyway, relevance to property is that social housing, entitlement to it etc needs to be reformed on top of government providing more units. And different types depending on ability to pay rent etc....

Idbatterim

Wanderer78 wrote: »

Our property issues have virtually nothing to do with the welfare class, but more to do with the rentier classes, particularly the fire sectors (finance, insurance and real estate), whos prime objective is to continually engage in activities that cause asset price inflation

Partially agree, of course it isnt about just the welfare class. But it is totally immoral, free luxury property for some, like the dundrum apartments and idiot mid income earner next door to him, pays a fortune and works for the priviledge!

We seemingly cant afford anything here according to the government, health service **** (mostly mismanagement) prison spaces, class sizes a joke, infrastucture ****. But we are so wealthy, that we can give away extremely expensive property, to a fairly select few, for nothing!

there is no balance here, they should not be getting that property for the pittance they get it for, while others are absolutely shafted and living a poorer quality of life and paying for it. You could address this massive void, by putting in place, appropriate rents and a council tax in the uk, will happen when pigs fly here though....

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

wow that's a big increase - there are so many shades of disability with a bit of imagination, technology and retraining surely a good portion of this number could eventually productively reenter the work force .....

probably be fleeced for even suggesting that in modern PC ireland

Only if the work place changed considerably and the normal idea of employer-employee relations was thrown out the window.

I have one autistic and one high functioning asperger in my house, both have high ranking tertiary degrees with no prospect of employment that I can see. Only one of them receives any state benefit and it's not terribly much.

KennisWhale

https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/oct/21/social-housing-britain-affordability

Easy to see comparisons with the Irish Market here.

It’s hard to think of an idea that better sums up the thrust of housing policy in recent decades: provide a bit of help to get a small group of people just over the line, but in a way that inflates prices for everyone else.

... it is hard to imagine politicians ever really embracing stagnating or falling real house prices. Too many homeowners regard the gains of rising prices as the deserved outcome of good decisions, rather than the good-luck windfall it really is. Economic growth in the UK is too reliant on debt-fuelled consumer spending guaranteed by the housing bubble: even as we bemoan rising prices, we are collectively addicted to them. So politicians continue to promise bits of help here and there for first-time buyers which make it look as though they’re doing something, even as it pushes prices up even further.

we have only ever built enough houses when the state has been a significant part of the equation. Private developers will never build enough; in an uncompetitive market, it’s not in their interests to do so. Safe, comfortable and secure homes are like healthcare, schools and the railways: it takes state action to ensure everyone can live in one.

PropQueries

Another possible 'advertorial' (but not labeled as such) in the Irish Times. This time from QRE Real Estate Advisors who regard the current fall in demand for office space in Dublin as a "blip" and a "temporary inconvenience" and where he says:

"Like myself, most vendors believe the current dip will prove itself to be a temporary inconvenience, which will be reversed with the movement along the upward slope of the much anticipated “V curve” in 2021".

I don't agree with his viewpoints but it's always worth reading opinions from the other side of the debate.

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/vendors-adopting-wait-and-see-approach-in-sub-20m-market-1.4376533

Idbatterim

In relation to the above post, V curve in 2021? Lol! If his prediction was for 23 or 24 you could say plausible, 21? Laughable imo...

handlemaster

At best it will be a U might even be a w. But a V I think was are already passed that

HotDudeLife

handlemaster wrote: »

At best it will be a U might even be a w. But a V I think was are already passed that

More like an underscore, it will take half a decade for the economy to recover as we are nowhere near the worst of it yet, eye of the storm.

PropQueries

Interesting opinion piece on retail rents in the Irish Independent titled "The pandemic has struck just as downwards rent reviews fall due".

"The big question is if your property’s rent review date falls during a period of enforced closure, what is its rental value?"

"Conversely, tenants, and particularly in retailing, are arguing that if their review falls due during a lockdown, the rental value should be zero. Now, that’s not realistic as the tenant is in possession and will have the ability to re-open but it’s a good starting point in negotiations and rental values in the era of a pandemic will hardly be as high as before the restrictions."

His statement that tenants are arguing that rental values should be zero is obviously half in jest but an interesting opinion all the same.

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/the-pandemic-has-struck-just-as-downwards-rent-reviews-fall-due-39653211.html

KennisWhale

I would've thought the sub-20m category encompasses not just small offices but retailers as well who are totally underwater and perhaps unlikely at best to experience any sort of recovery.

The WFH not being permanent mentality is understandable. I'm not anywhere near being a baby boomer unlike Conor Whelan but even I prefer to have a mix of WFH and work in the office. The sub-20m buildings again however, would surely only be smaller offices which would presumably be flexible enough and agile in respect of adapting to WFH, especially if it means cutting costs on rent.

In all of this, already we are seeing the articles coming out to say a vaccine is not a silver bullet and may not be that effective which means goodbye first half of 2021 to see a dramatic recovery in the economy (which is sad). Longer term, investing in hubs set up for smaller offices dotted around the cities rather than being concentrated in Sandyford or the city centre would be better than "waiting and seeing" with the Lad Lane office building held with small tenants who are not using it right now as they will be considering their needs if they don't need to be in the office the last 7 months.

Hubertj

KennisWhale wrote: »

I would've thought the sub-20m category encompasses not just small offices but retailers as well who are totally underwater and perhaps unlikely at best to experience any sort of recovery.

The WFH not being permanent mentality is understandable. I'm not anywhere near being a baby boomer unlike Conor Whelan but even I prefer to have a mix of WFH and work in the office. The sub-20m buildings again however, would surely only be smaller offices which would presumably be flexible enough and agile in respect of adapting to WFH, especially if it means cutting costs on rent.

In all of this, already we are seeing the articles coming out to say a vaccine is not a silver bullet and may not be that effective which means goodbye first half of 2021 to see a dramatic recovery in the economy (which is sad). Longer term, investing in hubs set up for smaller offices dotted around the cities rather than being concentrated in Sandyford or the city centre would be better than "waiting and seeing" with the Lad Lane office building held with small tenants who are not using it right now as they will be considering their needs if they don't need to be in the office the last 7 months.

I work for a large MNC - 4 offices across Dublin, about 1000 people but will grow to about 1300 next year.
2 of the offices are smaller - maybe 150 - 250 people in each. We have been informed both are closing and additional space has been taken in both the other offices which are located in more modern and larger complexes. There will be a desk for all employees. I think the GRE Team have used the opportunity to re-negotiate the leases to get more sq metres at a lower price per square metre.
I also look forward to getting back to the office. Serious cabin fever has set in after 7 mnoths!

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I work for a large MNC - 4 offices across Dublin, about 1000 people but will grow to about 1300 next year.
2 of the offices are smaller - maybe 150 - 250 people in each. We have been informed both are closing and additional space has been taken in both the other offices which are located in more modern and larger complexes. There will be a desk for all employees. I think the GRE Team have used the opportunity to re-negotiate the leases to get more sq metres at a lower price per square metre.
I also look forward to getting back to the office. Serious cabin fever has set in after 7 mnoths!

Have they given any indication on how they plan to implement WFH post-Covid e.g. 2,3,4,5 day weeks back at the office?

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Have they given any indication on how they plan to implement WFH post-Covid e.g. 2,3,4,5 day weeks back at the office?

pre-Covid we could do 1 day WFH. Take up wasn't very high - only people with a longer commute seemed that interested.

HR has indicated there will be greater flexibility but haven't said what that will mean. It will also vary by function as some teams require a lot more face to face time than others.

KennisWhale

Hubertj wrote: »

I work for a large MNC - 4 offices across Dublin, about 1000 people but will grow to about 1300 next year.
2 of the offices are smaller - maybe 150 - 250 people in each. We have been informed both are closing and additional space has been taken in both the other offices which are located in more modern and larger complexes. There will be a desk for all employees. I think the GRE Team have used the opportunity to re-negotiate the leases to get more sq metres at a lower price per square metre.
I also look forward to getting back to the office. Serious cabin fever has set in after 7 mnoths!

The big offices like with your company are better off with their large offices and they do have ambitious growth plans so it makes sense that they would abandon their little offices to consolidate with the big spaces.

In any event, it shows adaptability and flexibility which is key. My hub suggestion isn't me coming up with this obviously but it is an idea which I like the sound of - we would move out from Dublin with 3 days in the office and 2 at home and I could see renting a desk space in Greystones, for example, while living in Delgany or Kilmacanogue, for a couple days a week with its high speed internet, phone booths etc. being appealing as part of the consideration of moving out. This would help alleviate demand in Dublin from the likes of us for transport and homes, with the office benefitting from being able to save on rents.

The key with this is flexibility however, which goes against Conor Whelan's article where he talks of waiting and holding (more like wait and hope), rather than trying to adapt now.

JimmyVik

Hubertj wrote: »

I work for a large MNC - 4 offices across Dublin, about 1000 people but will grow to about 1300 next year.
2 of the offices are smaller - maybe 150 - 250 people in each. We have been informed both are closing and additional space has been taken in both the other offices which are located in more modern and larger complexes. There will be a desk for all employees. I think the GRE Team have used the opportunity to re-negotiate the leases to get more sq metres at a lower price per square metre.
I also look forward to getting back to the office. Serious cabin fever has set in after 7 mnoths!

Our company (MNC . about 250 employees altogether in Dublin and another 150 elsewhere in the country) has been issuing notice since July that everybody is expected to come into all 3 offices when restrictions are over.
They keep having to push the date out though.
Some people actually moved back to Dublin in August and rented when as they expected us in at the end of August at the time.
Now people have been told that when the office opens everyone has 1 month working at home and after that all expected back in the office.

TheSheriff

JimmyVik wrote: »

Our company (MNC . about 250 employees altogether in Dublin and another 150 elsewhere in the country) has been issuing notice since July that everybody is expected to come into all 3 offices when restrictions are over.
They keep having to push the date out though.
Some people actually moved back to Dublin in August and rented when as they expected us in at the end of August at the time.
Now people have been told that when the office opens everyone has 1 month working at home and after that all expected back in the office.

We (~400 people) has WFH two days per week pre covid, some people had more, but very little take up.

We've been told it'll just be back to this post covid, hopefully some time in Q1 -Q2 2021.

Looking forward to getting back to the office to be honest, not enjoying the current bleed of work into my home life.

Edit; the 2 days per week WFH will be a must, prior to covid it was optional.

nerrad01

TheSheriff wrote: »

We (~400 people) has WFH two days per week pre covid, some people had more, but very little take up.

We've been told it'll just be back to this post covid, hopefully some time in Q1 -Q2 2021.

Looking forward to getting back to the office to be honest, not enjoying the current bleed of work into my home life.

Edit; the 2 days per week WFH will be a must, prior to covid it was optional.

not a chance you will be back in q1/2 of 2021, sure we will likely be locked down again around that time

HotDudeLife

nerrad01 wrote: »

not a chance you will be back in q1/2 of 2021, sure we will likely be locked down again around that time

Most my peers that work in MNC haven't been given a date, it's simply when safe to do so. Most in tech were able to WFH half the week anyway, the main change from what i can see/hear, is that many people from different counties will WFH most of the week or move to full time remote, thus leaving Dublin.



Many immigrants/native Dubs will obviously still stay in Dublin.



I don't predict a huge exodus but it will likely impact prices in Dublin as many culchies in the tech game will move out.

JimmyVik

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Most my peers that work in MNC haven't been given a date, it's simply when safe to do so. Most in tech were able to WFH half the week anyway, the main change from what i can see/hear, is that many people from different counties will WFH most of the week or move to full time remote, thus leaving Dublin.

Many immigrants/native Dubs will obviously still stay in Dublin.

I don't predict a huge exodus but it will likely impact prices in Dublin as many culchies in the tech game will move out.

We were given dates several times. None of them worked out though.
So now its as you say, when the time comes. No solid date.

fliball123

walterral2017 wrote: »

I see <SNIP> is saying that viewings can continue during level 5. Is that right? I thought that estate agencies were closed????

no housing is an essential service. Sure the building site have not been shutdown either

80sDiesel

Only when the last person receives his jab will anything go back to office based.