Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Graham

Mod Note

folks, while Coronavirus is obviously impacting the Irish property market, in depth discussion of vaccines etc. is better suited to the dedicated forum Coronavirus (COVID-19).

Some off-topic posts deleted.

stefanovich

Billythekid19 wrote: »

But your typical person working in a hotel, hospitality ect all need a place to live, They cant all be living in social housing.

As they are entry level jobs I’d imagine they’d be in a 1 bed rental.

Graham

stefanovich wrote: »

As they are entry level jobs I’d imagine they’d be in a 1 bed rental.

I'd have guessed, house sharing, living with family or living with partner before 1-bed rentals.

PropQueries

Goldman Sachs in talks to take over Blanchardstown Shopping Centre.

"The Irish Independent reported in August that Blackstone was prepared to surrender control of Blanchardstown if lenders, which also include Allied Irish Banks, didn’t agree to a negotiate a debt deal. AIB declined to comment.

In December, the centre was valued at about €900m and had about €735m of outstanding debt, according to the people familiar with the matter.

Goldman – whose mezzanine loan is junior to debt held by other lenders – plans to inject fresh capital and is likely to pursue a number of projects at the site should the deal be finalised, including redevelopment of space vacated by collapsed retailers, the people said."

Link to article in Irish Independent here: https://www.independent.ie/business/goldman-sachs-in-talks-to-take-over-blanchardstown-shopping-centre-39661964.html

Zenify

UK Banks increase mortgage rates as they are trying to reduce demand, because they are too busy. Article in the FT today. Read the article by googling "FT stifle home loan boom".

HotDudeLife

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

hi!

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

Are they going to drop though? No one knows. We got our AIP last week and have started looking but could definitely wait a bit.

HotDudeLife

hi! wrote: »

Are they going to drop though? No one knows. We got our AIP last week and have started looking but could definitely wait a bit.

100%, the question is by how much. Some say 5-10% some a lot more, imo i think some areas of Dublin will experience 10-15% drops in the next year.



I am not FTB but may purchase an investment property if prices drop 20% or more.

hi!

HotDudeLife wrote: »

100%, the question is by how much. Some say 5-10% some a lot more, imo i think some areas of Dublin will experience 10-15% drops in the next year.



I am not FTB but may purchase an investment property if prices drop 20% or more.

I hope you are right! 10% would make such a difference to us. I could potentially buy near my family then.

HotDudeLife

hi! wrote: »

I hope you are right! 10% would make such a difference to us. I could potentially buy near my family then.

That would be fantastic, i hope it works out for you. A drop is inevitable, the only question is by how much and what kind of timeline, we are in the eye of the economic storm which is being kept on life support by Government money/pup etc, it usually takes a couple of months for the property market to feel the impact of the general economy.



The only thing which may delay such a drop is if we experience additional lockdowns, part of me thinks they may have a "Covid21" and prolong these restrictions, if so, expect steeper drops but you may be waiting a bit longer (at least 12 months) to see them.

Salanky

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

Everyone has been saying prices are gonna drop hugely and it doesn't seem to be happening from what I've seen. My only option to be able to buy was the rbi and I got approved this time last year. Drawdown is happening next week for me. With the changes in that scheme if I were to apply again I wouldn't be able to afford to buy and would have to move even further out.(currently in Dublin with parents and moving to south Louth)

jesus_thats_gre

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

Right house, in the right location, with space to expand... I am accepting a drop of 10%-20% for 3-4 years.

sparkle109

Well prices haven’t dropped yet and no guarantees. Plus if they do drop, it tends to be more difficult to get a mortgage and developers often stop building all the while FTBs are paying high rents.if prices drop slightly but houses aren’t readily available to buy it’s not much use for FTBs. Different if you are looking for an investment property though

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

HotDudeLife

jesus_thats_gre wrote: »

Right house, in the right location, with space to expand... I am accepting a drop of 10%-20% for 3-4 years.

Logical approach.


I think those that are dead set on the location and it's (i hate to use the term) "forever home", then a drop over the next few years is insignificant.

HotDudeLife

sparkle109 wrote: »

Well prices haven’t dropped yet and no guarantees. Plus if they do drop, it tends to be more difficult to get a mortgage and developers often stop building all the while FTBs are paying high rents.if prices drop slightly but houses aren’t readily available to buy it’s not much use for FTBs. Different if you are looking for an investment property though

They will 100% drop, that is guaranteed.


Prices already dropping in Dublin 7, 11, 12 and 24. (Not all areas though).

jesus_thats_gre

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Logical approach.

I think those that are dead set on the location and it's (i hate to use the term) "forever home", then a drop over the next few years is insignificant.

Not getting any younger either :P

optogirl

HotDudeLife wrote: »

They will 100% drop, that is guaranteed.


Prices already dropping in Dublin 7, 11, 12 and 24. (Not all areas though).

We've just been outbid on a house in D7 that had an asking price of 265k. Current top offer is 325k. This is your standard 2 bedroom ex-corporation house. Scary that it can ramp up that much in these uncertain times. Has made me quite nervous about being able to afford a house after years of saving and finally getting approval for what we thought was a decent amount.

lcarrol3

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

For us it's been three years that we've been saving to buy and we've been living with parents and getting very, very ready to move. We've bought something with room to grow and taken an 80% mortgage so we're a little more protected from negative equity. I completely agree, if someone was comfortable enough to wait I would. But for some of us, to wait would knock off a lot of our plans.

cant26

HotDudeLife wrote: »

They will 100% drop, that is guaranteed.


Prices already dropping in Dublin 7, 11, 12 and 24. (Not all areas though).

Not everyone is based in Dublin! Just bought in the West and prices have increased significantly since June.
Since Covid hit all I see on some of these threads is ‘wait for the crash’, people expecting/hoping for a crash similar to 2009 onwards. I don’t think it’s wise to say anything is 100% in these uncertain times.
I suppose for us we picked a property we liked, was big enough that we could stay long term if needed and location is great.

sparkle109

We did similar and have taken a 80% mortgage so like the poster above will hopefully cushion us against any drop. Although we plan to be there for minimum 5/7 years.

cant26 wrote: »

Not everyone is based in Dublin! Just bought in the West and prices have increased significantly since June.
Since Covid hit all I see on some of these threads is ‘wait for the crash’, people expecting/hoping for a crash similar to 2009 onwards. I don’t think it’s wise to say anything is 100% in these uncertain times.
I suppose for us we picked a property we liked, was big enough that we could stay long term if needed and location is great.

cant26

sparkle109 wrote: »

We did similar and have taken a 80% mortgage so like the poster above will hopefully cushion us against any drop. Although we plan to be there for minimum 5/7 years.

We are the same with an 80% mortgage.

Green Mile

HotDudeLife wrote: »

100%, the question is by how much. Some say 5-10% some a lot more, imo i think some areas of Dublin will experience 10-15% drops in the next year.



I am not FTB but may purchase an investment property if prices drop 20% or more.

I wouldn’t be that certain of a drop in price. This recession isn’t a banking crises like the last one. Negative interest rates means banks want to lend, it’s cheaper than holding money and there’s more people who are not affected by covid in terms of their finances compared to those who are.
Yes true current house price increases have slowed down, they may even drop like you say but to 20% or more?

Ubbquittious

cant26 wrote: »

Not everyone is based in Dublin! Just bought in the West and prices have increased significantly since June.
Since Covid hit all I see on some of these threads is ‘wait for the crash’, people expecting/hoping for a crash similar to 2009 onwards. I don’t think it’s wise to say anything is 100% in these uncertain times.
I suppose for us we picked a property we liked, was big enough that we could stay long term if needed and location is great.

Sometimes it seems on here that everyone is based in Dublin or the burbs and commuter towns.

Donald Trump

Zenify wrote: »

UK Banks increase mortgage rates as they are trying to reduce demand, because they are too busy. Article in the FT today. Read the article by googling "FT stifle home loan boom".

Says it's due to a current "stamp duty holiday" that people want to take advantage of before it expires. "Offers a tax saving of up to 15k"

lindtee

I will definitely be going ahead with buying if things go to plan. I plan on living there for at least the next 10 years and the LTV will be relatively low in my case. There’s such a shortage of decent quality homes on market at the moment and I can’t see that changing any time soon.

CianRyan

HotDudeLife wrote: »

They will 100% drop, that is guaranteed.


Prices already dropping in Dublin 7, 11, 12 and 24. (Not all areas though).

The house I'm sale agreed on is in D24, was sale agreed 5/6 months ago, the bidding process was very aggressive. Our offer was nearly 10k less than the highest offer (we won because we're not in a chain) and the highest bid was nearly 10k over what it was sale agreed on last time around.

I was expecting house prices to fall but honestly, those of us in a position to buy now seem to be bidding very strongly with a real edge to those in a position to move quickly.

CarMc

HotDudeLife wrote: »

Curious to know why the FTBS in this thread are buying or planning to buy right now or within the next 6 months given that house prices will likely drop a fair bit, i understand those that are currently paying sky high rents will likely want to buy asap but rents are dropping so curious to see what type of FTB wants to purchase now when they could surely get a much fairer bargain 6 months- 1 year down the road.

We were bidding on houses throughout July & August when you had to show proof of AIP just to get a viewing and 400,000 people in the country were on a Covid payment of some kind and we were getting outbid on a lot of properties - most were going for 40k over asking (not Dublin but close to it) - I can’t see prices dropping. They might level out but not drop. People who held on to their jobs this year have more disposable income and more savings - there are less houses up for sale now and less buyers but it doesn’t seem to be lowering sale prices - just my opinion but we’ll see next year I suppose.

combat14

any houses I was looking at in the midlands have all sold for 3.5% less than asking price over the last few months

interesting to see that we are now facing the highest number of businesses closing since the last recession 12 years ago .. people will need their savings by the sounds of it to cushion them from widespread jobs losses and future tax rises

PommieBast

Donald Trump wrote: »

Says it's due to a current "stamp duty holiday" that people want to take advantage of before it expires. "Offers a tax saving of up to 15k"

I was looking at UK property over the summer but it was pretty clear that some EAs were doing things that negate the saving.

Bluefoam

combat14 wrote: »

any houses I was looking at in the midlands have all sold for 3.5% less than asking price over the last few months

interesting to see that we are now facing the highest number of businesses closing since the last recession 12 years ago .. people will need their savings by the sounds of it to cushion them from widespread jobs losses and future tax rises

Exactly. People are staying in the house they own... Less housing coming to market... Demand is still high, but maybe not as high as it was.
I'm hearing of allot of developers putting a hold on, or slowing development of housing projects. It's going to take time to ramp up building again.


Who knows if the market will crash... But know one thing, the market rises regardless of any downswing. During the last recession we all thought it was the end of the property market... It didn't take long for it to recover and start to grow massively again.