Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

It’s based on an article I read last year about a planning application to the council to build student accommodation units in Dublin 7. It was under 200 beds so the SHD didn’t apply.

The council asked them to come back with a report on how much student accommodation had been or is planned to be built in the area before making their decision.

Then it hit me. The state has no idea what’s being or has been built anywhere. They have an idea of new builds but they have very little idea on how many homes have re-entered supply through probate sales or refurbished properties.

I believe it’s a lot more than many people (or the state) realise. It’s just a thought. No proof. But either does the government.

And that could be a problem if the state is making decisions on the basis of a housing undersupply that may not really exist. Maybe it does but I’m doubtful.

This is 1 of your more stupid comments. It’s up there with linking government policy to maintain high property prices with direct provision. Truly mad stuff altogether.

PHG

PropQueries wrote: »

Well just in my short lifetime the UK needed an IMF bailout in the 1970s and Ireland was in deep trouble in the 1980s. The ECB will not keep printing money to continue lending to Ireland to allow the government to continue paying landlords €2,000 a month to rent apartments or to pay €350 a week in PUP payments which is more than many workers received per working week in many other countries in the EU pre-Covid.

You need to look up how the Money Supply works and eradicating debt using inflation. The UK only paid off the last of its WWII debt the other week I think.

The EU does not go, "oh well cannot give Ireland any more money because of those pesky landlords". More landlords are leaving the market than ever.

Finally, the cost of living is a lot higher in Ireland than in say Eastern Europe, it is not a correct comparison. But don't let facts and a bit of research get in your way.

KennisWhale

https://www-irishtimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/mortgage-drawdowns-fall-by-almost-a-third-1.4391707?mode=amp

Fewer than 6,400 people took out mortgages to buy homes in the three months to the end of September as Covid-19 took its toll on the property market.

Banking and Payments Federation of Ireland statistics show the total number of home loans drawn down during the three-month period was 8,220, a fall of 30.3 per cent on the 11,794 mortgages taken out through the third quarter of last year.

Not great when we are again in lockdown for half of Q4 so presumably it won't be much better. Q3 was an improvement on Q2 apparently.

https://amp.rte.ie/amp/1172420/

Supply of houses was down 1/3 on Daft during the same period so there is a correlation between the lower supply and the lower demand for mortgages. Meaning, covid may have stunted supply but may not have muted demand, even at the current market levels. Not to sound like an agent or an IT article but signs of robustness in the housing market perhaps.

Considering the lockdowns and restrictions when not in lockdown, it looks like the economy won't be free of most restrictions until next spring or even summer, which means the fallout from covid with jobs that aren't directly in the firing line, like law, finance and tech, won't be seen until people are getting back to normal. This time next year we will know if the Central Bank interventions are enough to restore some sort of pre-Covid status quo to the economy. The pre-Covid issue of what to do about the mind boggling mountain of debt in the global economy will hopefully be a fight for a few years down the line.

handlemaster

https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/aviva-initiates-legal-action-against-carpetright-over-rent-dispute-39648718.html


There will l be alot more to come case like this. Covid hasn't gone away.

KennisWhale

handlemaster wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/aviva-initiates-legal-action-against-carpetright-over-rent-dispute-39648718.html


There will l be alot more to come case like this. Covid hasn't gone away.

Irish Life owns half of Grafton St on behalf of their pension funds. If you ticked the box for more risky investments in your portfolio, it could be a bumpy ride.

PropQueries

According to the Irish Times today: 'Tourists and renters to be permitted in student accommodation'

"The decision by Dublin City Council to allow five purpose-built student facilities to be used for holiday or general rental was described by Labour Senator Maire Sherlock as setting a dangerous precedent for co-living by the back door. The council approved the use up to May 31st with a condition that short-term lets would be restricted to two months.”

Link here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/tourists-and-renters-to-be-permitted-in-student-accommodation-1.4391807

PommieBast

KennisWhale wrote: »

Irish Life owns half of Grafton St on behalf of their pension funds. If you ticked the box for more risky investments in your portfolio, it could be a bumpy ride.

Probably still a better bet than the "non risky" option of government bonds. For someone of my age pension contributions is basically just another tax.

</off-topic>

fliball123

dor843088 wrote: »

People in here dont seem very rational. If we are heading into the biggest economic shock in modern history what makes people think that property will be the only unaffected market ? All markets are bubbles right now. Nothing makes sense including the property market.

the thing is we have been in this shock for the last 8/9 months and prices have not dropped.

WhenPigsCry

fliball123 wrote: »

the thing is we have been in this shock for the last 8/9 months and prices have not dropped.

The Great Property Crash, originally scheduled for 2019 due to Brexit, is currently expected in 2021 due to Covid, or 2022 at the latest. Please defer any property purchases until after this date in order to avail of great bargains.

PropQueries

WhenPigsCry wrote: »

The Great Property Crash, originally scheduled for 2019 due to Brexit, is currently expected in 2021 due to Covid, or 2022 at the latest. Please defer any property purchases until after this date in order to avail of great bargains.

Technically it did The developers couldn't sell their properties pre-covid so were forced into the renting their new build properties. These probably aren't renting either as the increases in Daft.ie listings has shown. The original financiers of these developments didn't sign up to fund long-term rental properties so will want their investment/loans back over the next few months. This is when we will begin see the 'forced rentals' converting into 'forced sales' IMO. They tried a similar tactic after the last crash.

This is just one example from February 2020 (pre-covid):

"But sales failed to materialise in line with expectations and developer Agricula has withdrawn the properties from the market and returned booking deposits to intending buyers. As of mid-January they have been advertised for rent through agent Bergins. Half the units have since been rented. Originally the apartments at 19 Pembroke Road were priced from €650,000 for a one-bedroom unit up to €1.1 million for a two-bed penthouse, but renters can now expect to pay from €3,000 per month for a 54sq m one-bed up to €3,400 for a 71.5sq m one-bed."

Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Technically it did The developers couldn't sell their properties pre-covid so were forced into the renting their new build properties. These probably aren't renting either as the increases in Daft.ie listings has shown. The original financiers of these developments didn't sign up to fund long-term rental properties so will want their investment/loans back over the next few months. This is when we will begin see the 'forced rentals' converting into 'forced sales' IMO. They tried a similar tactic after the last crash.

This is just one example from February 2020 (pre-covid):

"But sales failed to materialise in line with expectations and developer Agricula has withdrawn the properties from the market and returned booking deposits to intending buyers. As of mid-January they have been advertised for rent through agent Bergins. Half the units have since been rented. Originally the apartments at 19 Pembroke Road were priced from €650,000 for a one-bedroom unit up to €1.1 million for a two-bed penthouse, but renters can now expect to pay from €3,000 per month for a 54sq m one-bed up to €3,400 for a 71.5sq m one-bed."

Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644

and prices still have not dropped

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

and prices still have not dropped

Of course not. Property is highly illiquid. But transactions are well down which doesn't bode well for the future direction of the property market.

As many have said here before, the only ones able to purchase are multinational employees and similar workers etc. who haven't been impacted by Covid-19.

Where are all these buyers if transactions are down. Plus there's only so many workers who aren't impacted that actually do require to purchase a home. The supply of these non-impacted covid-19 workers seeking to purchase a home is not unlimited.

JimmyVik

WhenPigsCry wrote: »

The Great Property Crash, originally scheduled for 2019 due to Brexit, is currently expected in 2021 due to Covid, or 2022 at the latest. Please defer any property purchases until after this date in order to avail of great bargains.

Ive moved my prediction date twice now.
Do I have to move it out another year until im right.
I will be right eventually, even if I have to move it for the next 10 years

KennisWhale

PropQueries wrote: »

Technically it did The developers couldn't sell their properties pre-covid so were forced into the renting their new build properties. These probably aren't renting either as the increases in Daft.ie listings has shown. The original financiers of these developments didn't sign up to fund long-term rental properties so will want their investment/loans back over the next few months. This is when we will begin see the 'forced rentals' converting into 'forced sales' IMO. They tried a similar tactic after the last crash.

This is just one example from February 2020 (pre-covid):

"But sales failed to materialise in line with expectations and developer Agricula has withdrawn the properties from the market and returned booking deposits to intending buyers. As of mid-January they have been advertised for rent through agent Bergins. Half the units have since been rented. Originally the apartments at 19 Pembroke Road were priced from €650,000 for a one-bedroom unit up to €1.1 million for a two-bed penthouse, but renters can now expect to pay from €3,000 per month for a 54sq m one-bed up to €3,400 for a 71.5sq m one-bed."

Link to article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/plan-b-for-d4-boutique-apartments-as-buyers-become-renters-instead-1.4161644

Brexit blamed for sluggish sales market

The delusion! Nothing to do with the prices being advertised.

KennisWhale

nerrad01 wrote: »

Its a simple supply and demand issue, not enough properties and still enough people in secure well paid employment to keep the prices sustained. I cant see this changing, and i had previously been convinced we would be in for a crash.

The rental market on the other hand is in for a major correction (or at least should be if the reits were made pay tax on all those vacant properties they are using to price fix the rental market with). What effect this will have, if any, on the purchasing market is anyones guess

On that; in Dublin, the average asking rents for 1 and 2 bed apartments has dropped 15-20% in 6 months of covid. Could end up being even worse the longer these restrictions go on.

Shoden

Here's an interesting video on the subject just posted by Shane Fleming: https://youtu.be/H_rSohgB6JU

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Of course not. Property is highly illiquid. But transactions are well down which doesn't bode well for the future direction of the property market.

As many have said here before, the only ones able to purchase are multinational employees and similar workers etc. who haven't been impacted by Covid-19.

Where are all these buyers if transactions are down. Plus there's only so many workers who aren't impacted that actually do require to purchase a home. The supply of these non-impacted covid-19 workers seeking to purchase a home is not unlimited.

Have a look at the income tax take it was not down throughout the virus meaning those who have been paying the majority of income tax, those on the average and above average salaries are still working. (not sure how many low wage employees who would be in a position to buy even without Covid) Transactions are down due to the amount of red tape and extra work the process takes to buy a house, (all the moving parts, from solicitors to surveyors, to EAs to bank employees) while living in a covid world. It would be great to get some data on the timeframes for a property selling between going sale agreed and sold. I also believe the translations completed are ramping back up over the last couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see how the next 4 months go but I thought we would of seen a drop by now and this is not the case. Covid started in Feb its now the end of October that's 9 months. The crash in 08 is generally accepted that the Lehman Brothers hitting the wall in September signaled the spiral downwards with in 9 months of that event Irish property prices had plummeted and there was panic and prices were only going one way. We are 9 months since the event of Covid impacting us and prices have stayed flat.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Have a look at the income tax take it was not down throughout the virus meaning those who have been paying the majority of income tax, those on the average and above average salaries are still working. (not sure how many low wage employees who would be in a position to buy even without Covid) Transactions are down due to the amount of red tape and extra work the process takes to buy a house, (all the moving parts, from solicitors to surveyors, to EAs to bank employees) while living in a covid world. It would be great to get some data on the timeframes for a property selling between going sale agreed and sold. I also believe the translations completed are ramping back up over the last couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see how the next 4 months go but I thought we would of seen a drop by now and this is not the case. Covid started in Feb its now the end of October that's 9 months. The crash in 08 is generally accepted that the Lehman Brothers hitting the wall in September signaled the spiral downwards with in 9 months of that event Irish property prices had plummeted and there was panic and prices were only going one way. We are 9 months since the event of Covid impacting us and prices have stayed flat.

These are just some of the signals I would be looking at since January 2020:

Colony capital selling Irish real estate investments: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/colony-capital-appoints-eastdil-to-sell-stakes-in-prime-dublin-offices-1.4292785?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fcommercial-property%2Fcolony-capital-appoints-eastdil-to-sell-stakes-in-prime-dublin-offices-1.4292785

Aviva stops investors from taking money out of Irish property funds: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/commercial-property/aviva-stops-investors-from-taking-money-out-of-irish-property-funds-1.4157574?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fbusiness%2Fcommercial-property%2Faviva-stops-investors-from-taking-money-out-of-irish-property-funds-1.4157574#:~:text=Aviva%20Life%20%26%20Pensions%20Ireland%20moved,investor%20seeking%20their%20money%20back.

Blackstone tries to get out of Blanchardstown shopping centre: https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/blackstone-and-aib-in-standoff-over-blanchardstown-shopping-centre-debt-39463682.html

Pepper Money to cease new commercial lending: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0904/1163292-pepper-money-to-cease-new-commercial-lending/

Cullaun Capital with a loan book of €140M closed to new business: https://www.dublininquirer.com/2020/09/23/in-foxrock-work-continues-on-apartments-after-the-developer-and-property-finance-company-close-down

Ires Reit to sell off €50m in assets after buoyant first half: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-to-sell-off-50m-in-assets-after-buoyant-first-half-39432452.html

Properties available for rent in central Dublin up 71% on comparable period last year: https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0417/1132149-rent-sale-property-ireland/

Glenveagh cuts prices on luxury properties in Dublin and Wicklow to accelerate sales: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html

In other words, the big boys are looking to get out and as always, the small guys will be left holding the bag of proverbial.

In six months to a year, people will be saying "oh yea, I spotted all those signals too"...

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

These are just some of the signals I would be looking at since January 2020:

Colony capital selling Irish real estate investments: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...57498?mode=amp

Aviva stops investors from taking money out of Irish property funds: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/...57574?mode=amp

Blackstone tries to get out of Blanchardstown shopping centre: https://m.independent.ie/business/ir...-39463682.html

Pepper Money to cease new commercial lending: https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/0904/1163292-pepper-money-to-cease-new-commercial-lending/

Cullaun Capital with a loan book of €140M closed to new business: https://www.dublininquirer.com/2020/09/23/in-foxrock-work-continues-on-apartments-after-the-developer-and-property-finance-company-close-down

Ires Reit to sell off €50m in assets after buoyant first half: https://www.independent.ie/business/commercial-property/ires-reit-to-sell-off-50m-in-assets-after-buoyant-first-half-39432452.html

Properties available for rent in central Dublin up 71% on comparable period last year: https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2020/0417/1132149-rent-sale-property-ireland/

Glenveagh cuts prices on luxury properties in Dublin and Wicklow to accelerate sales: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html

In other words, the big boys are looking to get out and as always, the small guys will be left holding the bag of proverbial.

In six months to a year, people will be saying "oh yea, I spotted all those signals too"...

Whatever the signals you have up here it has not happened yet. Like I say the above signals mean nothing. If the market had been following your so called signals we should of seen a drop of at least 10% 9 months into possibly the biggest global event of my life and yet it has not come to pass.

Reasons not signals for prices staying where they are as follows.

Supply dwindling on a daily/weekly basis add in new house builds have slowed down.

People who were paying the majority of the tax are still working are saving more due to working from home and will be able to buy.

We have a huge subset in society in the 25 - 50 who are most likely to buy (something you tried to mislead people with your out of date stats)

It now costs money to hold money in a bank and other investment opportunities such as shares are even more risky due to the current climate. As an investor the idea of being able to buy a house give it to the Irish government for 20+ years and make a safe ROI backed by the gov is a very attractive one in the current climate.


The government have just passed a budget that will keep money in peoples pockets for the next 12 months.

The Pfizer vaccine is nearly here and already countries/Continents like the US, and Europe have already subscribed to at least a billion orders of this vaccine. So we could be close to getting Corona under control it might take another 2 years to get it under control but like the flu jab it may be something someone can get once a year to keep Corona at bay.

So unless the Irish government go under and all the MNCs go away I cant see a drop in price for the next 12 months.

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Whatever the signals you have up here it has not happened yet. Like I say the above signals mean nothing. If the market had been following your so called signals we should of seen a drop of at least 10% 9 months into possibly the biggest global event of my life and yet it has not come to pass.

Reasons not signals for prices staying where they are as follows.

Supply dwindling on a daily/weekly basis add in new house builds have slowed down.

People who were paying the majority of the tax are still working are saving more due to working from home and will be able to buy.

We have a huge subset in society in the 25 - 50 who are most likely to buy (something you tried to mislead people with your out of date stats)

It now costs money to hold money in a bank and other investment opportunities such as shares are even more risky due to the current climate. As an investor the idea of being able to buy a house give it to the Irish government for 20+ years and make a safe ROI backed by the gov is a very attractive one in the current climate.


The government have just passed a budget that will keep money in peoples pockets for the next 12 months.

The Pfizer vaccine is nearly here and already countries/Continents like the US, and Europe have already subscribed to at least a billion orders of this vaccine. So we could be close to getting Corona under control it might take another 2 years to get it under control but like the flu jab it may be something someone can get once a year to keep Corona at bay.

So unless the Irish government go under and all the MNCs go away I cant see a drop in price for the next 12 months.

All good points. It's the last one, although in jest, that may end up being a very accurate prophecy (maybe not in the next 12 months though)

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

All good points. It's the last one, although in jest, that may end up being a very accurate prophecy (maybe not in the next 12 months though)

Well we will have to wait and see. I honestly thought 6 months ago we would of seen a drop of 5 maybe 10% but it just hasnt happened and the points I made would make me believe that the drop will not happen for another 12 months..But god knows what will happen between now and then

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Well we will have to wait and see. I honestly thought 6 months ago we would of seen a drop of 5 maybe 10% but it just hasnt happened and the points I made would make me believe that the drop will not happen for another 12 months..But god knows what will happen between now and then

And that's why we're here. To look at the current data and we both take opposing views on what it's telling us about what's about to happen. Nothing wrong with that

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

But isn't that the definition of a 'forced sale' that many here have being saying is different this time i.e. prices can't drop much as there will be little forced sales to force a drop in values?

Another group selling are the pension funds e.g. Aviva and Zurich in Ireland blocked redemptions from their commercial property funds back in January (pre-covid) and are now selling several office buildings in Dublin in order to meet these redemption requests. These are only a few we know about.

So, the big investors are selling. The pension funds are selling. Who will buy them?

Yes you are right they blocked redemptions in January and most property funds in London were suspended till the end of January and during this time they built up liquidity to deal with any run on investor redemptions to prevent the funds from having to go into a fire sale of property to be able to pay investors redemptions.

Everyone knows that Commercial Real estate is impacted heavily and the assumptions the banks are working on is a 20% drop in value which they have already accounted for in half year provisions so to suggest that banks will go bust on the back of this is highly unlikely.

The other thing you need to considered is that pension funds need regular cash flow to pay pensions and with rates negative on government bonds they will invest in commercial real estate for the regular rent payments as this provides a strong yield compared to other investments at the moment. In short I don’t think Commercial real estate will totally collapse yes there will be loss on some investment which were undertaken at the peak but the majority are still providing a reasonable return.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Of course not. Property is highly illiquid. But transactions are well down which doesn't bode well for the future direction of the property market.

As many have said here before, the only ones able to purchase are multinational employees and similar workers etc. who haven't been impacted by Covid-19.

Where are all these buyers if transactions are down. Plus there's only so many workers who aren't impacted that actually do require to purchase a home. The supply of these non-impacted covid-19 workers seeking to purchase a home is not unlimited.

If the majority thought there was a property crash coming they would be frantically trying to sell their property and exit. The fact transactions are down shows that this is not the case.

fliball123

Timing belt wrote: »

If the majority thought there was a property crash coming they would be frantically trying to sell their property and exit. The fact transactions are down shows that this is not the case.

Not just transactions but the actual level of supply should of gone right up instead it continues to drop.

dor843088

Huge amounts of homeowners already in negative equity especially in new build estates.

donnaille

dor843088 wrote: »

Huge amounts of homeowners already in negative equity especially in new build estates.

What definition of 'negative equity' are you using, with a deposit &/or HTB there's very little change any homeowner in a new build estate is in negative equity.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

If the majority thought there was a property crash coming they would be frantically trying to sell their property and exit. The fact transactions are down shows that this is not the case.

That's the thing. 'The majority' generally don't realise what's going on until it's too late. But if you look at the signals e.g. Glenveagh very publicly reduced their prices last month. Many developers who did intend to sell have now reverted to renting or have kept them empty. Seems to be following the same playbook that I saw just before the last crash.

I think the primary difference this time is that many will hope to either sell or rent to the state. However, I don't think the state has the resources to soak up all the property that may be hoping to find a home with them over the next 12 months.

KennisWhale

fliball123 wrote: »

Have a look at the income tax take it was not down throughout the virus meaning those who have been paying the majority of income tax, those on the average and above average salaries are still working. (not sure how many low wage employees who would be in a position to buy even without Covid) Transactions are down due to the amount of red tape and extra work the process takes to buy a house, (all the moving parts, from solicitors to surveyors, to EAs to bank employees) while living in a covid world. It would be great to get some data on the timeframes for a property selling between going sale agreed and sold. I also believe the translations completed are ramping back up over the last couple of weeks. It will be interesting to see how the next 4 months go but I thought we would of seen a drop by now and this is not the case. Covid started in Feb its now the end of October that's 9 months. The crash in 08 is generally accepted that the Lehman Brothers hitting the wall in September signaled the spiral downwards with in 9 months of that event Irish property prices had plummeted and there was panic and prices were only going one way. We are 9 months since the event of Covid impacting us and prices have stayed flat.

I do not think we can say that we have had the covid event as of yet considering the government and central banks are still supporting the economy and markets. Until restrictions are eased and accompanying economic supports are wound down, the covid shock will be delayed.

In the quarter that everything is unfrozen we will start to see the fallout in the economy, which will only then start to affect the housing market, then a couple quarters later we will see the property market data. At this stage, best guess is Q2 2021 (April, 2021, at the start of the new tourism season) when the economy is unfrozen which means people are getting back to their jobs and will find out if they can still be paid the same amount / given the same number of hours, if they are even still needed by their company. The covid impact on housing would start to show in the quarterly reports after this (so Q3 reports onwards).

dor843088

donnaille wrote: »

What definition of 'negative equity' are you using, with a deposit &/or HTB there's very little change any homeowner in a new build estate is in negative equity.

Reselling these homes will not qualify for help to sell
The house is no longer brand new
The property market is significantly weaker than when most of these properties were bought.

Negative Equity