Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

Idbatterim

there is a serious undersupply, in some ways, working from home has been a pressure release valve (on the dublin property market), the way emigration was last recession!

poker--addict

But why are the properties in disrepair?

I live in a large commuter town. There are new estates being built all around, great, but there is street after street of houses within the town itself which are boarded up, in fantastic central locations, and they have been for years. Yes they are now in disrepair and require work- but only because 2-3 developers and speculators own the majority of them and are happy to sit and watch the land value go up for 20 years before selling as they approach retirement, at which point the council will pay through the nose to buy them, or another speculator buys them, rinse repeat. That is illogical and is a fact in Dublin and many large towns in the commuter belt. Supply won’t be fixed with one silver bullet but I don’t know why these properties are not targeted for extra tax after 2-3 years- use it or lose it.

PropQueries

Here’s a list of 382 A-Rated houses for sale in Dublin. Most are in estates so the real figure is most likely in the thousands.

And, that’s despite the state already renting or buying up a good chunk of them,

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/house-for-sale?minenergyrating=130

combat14

PropQueries wrote: »

Here’s a list of 382 A-Rated houses for sale in Dublin. Most are in estates so the real figure is most likely in the thousands.

And, that’s despite the state already renting or buying up a good chunk of them,

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/dublin/house-for-sale?minenergyrating=130

at stome stage the government or government taxation policy on these vacant properties will change .. nothing ever stays the same .. it is unsustainable for renters in dublin to handover 60% of their wages to landlords while never being able to buy

PropQueries

combat14 wrote: »

at stome stage the government or government taxation policy on these vacant properties will change .. nothing ever stays the same .. it is unsustainable for renters in dublin to handover 60% of their wages to landlords while never being able to buy

Some day. But from just looking at the number of a-rated turn-key apartments and houses for sale and rent in Dublin on MyHome.ie, the figure must be at least in the 5,000-6,000 range. That’s a fairly significant number of new build homes looking for occupiers and is significant for such a small city, We’re not London. And we’re still expected to build c.16,000-18,000 this year with most to be built in the greater Dublin region...

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

20? How about hundreds of turn-key properties In Dublin identified by the Sunday Business Post:

Link to Sunday Business Post article from Feb 2020 (pre-Covid) here: https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/the-luxury-gap-hundreds-of-high-end-apartments-lying-empty-across-dublin-ac7da06c

What nonsense is that? Pay-walled again. From the bit I could see it would appear these are on the market and avaialble, it's just people don't want them, most likely due to the amount being asked.

combat14

cnocbui wrote: »

What nonsense is that? Pay-walled again. From the bit I could see it would appear these are on the market and avaialble, it's just people don't want them, most likely due to the amount being asked.

exactly another sign of over priced houses

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

exactly another sign of over priced houses

You have to know what it cost to build them, before you can make that judgement.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

What nonsense is that? Pay-walled again. From the bit I could see it would appear these are on the market and avaialble, it's just people don't want them, most likely due to the amount being asked.

So you would agree that to move all these the rents/prices must drop substantially? If they do move to sell/rent them over the next twelve months that will have a big corresponding impact on the second-hand home rental/sales market as both the price of new builds and second-hand homes are highly correlated.

Very hard to sell a c-rated two bed apartment for €300k if an a-rated two bed apartment if seeking the same price across the road.

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

at stome stage the government or government taxation policy on these vacant properties will change .. nothing ever stays the same .. it is unsustainable for renters in dublin to handover 60% of their wages to landlords while never being able to buy

I would not be in favour of such a tax, having an unocupied rural property I see no reason why I should be taxed any more on.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

I would not be in favour of such a tax, having an unocupied rural property I see no reason why I should be taxed any more on.

Well if someone was living in that property they would be contributing to the local economy i.e. shopping locally, using local services like garages, plumbers etc. on a regular basis. There’s a case to be made that owners of such properties who decide to keep them vacant should be taxed to make up that shortfall...

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

So you would agree that to move all these the rents/prices must drop substantially? If they do move to sell/rent them over the next twelve months that will have a big corresponding impact on the second-hand home rental/sales market as both the price of new builds and second-hand homes are highly correlated.

Very hard to sell a c-rated two bed apartment for €300k if an a-rated two bed apartment if seeking the same price across the road.

I guess you are right here, it should be difficult to rent properties on pre-Covid levels now in city center.
But possibly there will be reverse trends by August/September next year. Some might wait, some might give 1 month free, some may reduce price... everyone decided what's best for them. There won't be flood of properties. There won't be much more available properties for rent than what we have now.

combat14

cnocbui wrote: »

You have to know what it cost to build them, before you can make that judgement.

cost to build them is now a sunk cost .. if houses are sitting there on the market for an extended period of time and no one is buying them ...... they are currently over priced ...

to what extent is another matter ...

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

I guess you are right here, it should be difficult to rent properties on pre-Covid levels now in city center.
But possibly there will be reverse trends by August/September next year. Some might wait, some might give 1 month free, some may reduce price... everyone decided what's best for them. There won't be flood of properties. There won't be much more available properties for rent than what we have now.

Well we’re still building c.16,000-18,000 new residential units this year, mostly in the greater Dublin region. Another 20,000 minimum next year as well, again mostly in the greater Dublin region. Not referencing Covid, but old people continue to die naturally and their properties will continue to add to supply every month out to next September.

Come next September, there’s going to be a significant number of additional homes looking for buyers/renters that are probably not there.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Well we’re still building c.16,000-18,000 new residential units this year, mostly in the greater Dublin region. Another 20,000 minimum next year as well, again mostly in the greater Dublin region. Not referencing Covid, but old people continue to die naturally and their properties will continue to add to supply every month out to next September.

Come next September, there’s going to be a significant number of additional homes looking for buyers/renters that are probably not there.

Which are low number, and not enough, by all means. None of the estimates has reports that the needs are below 20K a year.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

So you would agree that to move all these the rents/prices must drop substantially? If they do move to sell/rent them over the next twelve months that will have a big corresponding impact on the second-hand home rental/sales market as both the price of new builds and second-hand homes are highly correlated.

Very hard to sell a c-rated two bed apartment for €300k if an a-rated two bed apartment if seeking the same price across the road.

No I do not agree. It could be that the intended class of tennants are now recently returned to their home countries and are WFH.

You are dreaming if you think the owners would off load these on the market at the same price as lower quality stock. I'd imagine if they did list them for sale, you would use them as an example of overpriced property.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Well we’re still building c.16,000-18,000 new residential units this year, mostly in the greater Dublin region. Another 20,000 minimum next year as well, again mostly in the greater Dublin region. Not referencing Covid, but old people continue to die naturally and their properties will continue to add to supply every month out to next September.

Come next September, there’s going to be a significant number of additional homes looking for buyers/renters that are probably not there.

There is strong enough demand to easily fill all this property and 2,3 times this level of property. Where the problem is that for a large cohort the price is out of reach so will have no choice but to remain in the rental sector.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

No I do not agree. It could be that the intended class of tennants are now recently returned to their home countries and are WFH.

You are dreaming if you think the owners would off load these on the market at the same price as lower quality stock. I'd imagine if they did list them for sale, you would use them as an example of overpriced property.

Foreign workers WFH in their home countries had nothing to do with the number of vacant apartments detailed in the Sunday Business Post article from last February.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

There is strong enough demand to easily fill all this property and 2,3 times this level of property. Where the problem is that for a large cohort the price is out of reach so will have no choice but to remain in the rental sector.

I haven’t seen any media reports of people queuing for properties to rent or buy over the past three years (outside of the apparently 30 people queuing for 18 new homes in Carlow last month and even that seemed like a bit of a rent-a-queue type thing given the media coverage. I’ve seen more people queuing for ice cream near me on a cold December evening),

I don’t believe the demand was there this time last year. I don’t believe there’s any demand right now. And I believe there will be less than zero demand this time next year and right out to 2030 at least.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Well if someone was living in that property they would be contributing to the local economy i.e. shopping locally, using local services like garages, plumbers etc. on a regular basis. There’s a case to be made that owners of such properties who decide to keep them vacant should be taxed to make up that shortfall...

If it had a BER rating it would be -Z; think stone building built in 1893. It would take a capital injection about equivalent to building a 3-bed house from scratch, or more, to make it habitable by modern standards. It's also in the middle of nowhere so is not depriving the local economy. I haven't checked lately, but locally there was a whole slew of new built GFC peak houses that were mostly empty and unsold for years due to the GFC and lack of demand. As far as I can see the area, like the rest of Connemara, is dying a long slow death.

Absolutely no justification whatsoever why I should be taxed more because I am unprepared to take a huge financial risk I think might result in a substantial loss.

And to put the icing on the cake, if such a tax were brought in, I couldn't even sell up to avoid it because of a long running legal problem that would make that impossible.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Foreign workers WFH in their home countries had nothing to do with the number of vacant apartments detailed in the Sunday Business Post article from last February.

Well I wouldn't know, as you linked to a pay-walled article.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Well I wouldn't know, as you linked to a pay-walled article.

Here you go. No paywall.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/hundreds-plush-properties-laying-vacant-17800453

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

cost to build them is now a sunk cost .. if houses are sitting there on the market for an extended period of time and no one is buying them ...... they are currently over priced ...

to what extent is another matter ...

This overpriced thing on here is such a nonsense.

I recently had a pair of high quality earphones which I put up for sale on Adverts. Not a nibble, so I put them up on eBay and sold them in a couple of weeks. The prevailing logic in this thread of what overpriced means would have me as an evil profiteer who was simply asking too much, even selling at a loss.

I hate to even mention it for fear of off-topic Mod-lash, but I think the real problem is disposable incomes, not so much prices.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

If it had a BER rating it would be -Z; think stone building built in 1893. It would take a capital injection about equivalent to building a 3-bed house from scratch, or more, to make it habitable by modern standards. It's also in the middle of nowhere so is not depriving the local economy. I haven't checked lately, but locally there was a whole slew of new built GFC peak houses that were mostly empty and unsold for years due to the GFC and lack of demand. As far as I can see the area, like the rest of Connemara, is dying a long slow death.

Absolutely no justification whatsoever why I should be taxed more because I am unprepared to take a huge financial risk I think might result in a substantial loss.

And to put the icing on the cake, if such a tax were brought in, I couldn't even sell up to avoid it because of a long running legal problem that would make that impossible.

Well just like they tax cigarettes to discourage smoking, a vacant home tax would discourage people from sitting on them and put it to productive use. You would find a solution to the legal issues fairly quickly if you had to pay €5,000 a year until it was resolved.

Interesting recent article on the derelict site tax/CPO from limerick here: https://www.irishexaminer.com/news/munster/arid-40072286.html

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

If it had a BER rating it would be -Z; think stone building built in 1893. It would take a capital injection about equivalent to building a 3-bed house from scratch, or more, to make it habitable by modern standards. It's also in the middle of nowhere so is not depriving the local economy. I haven't checked lately, but locally there was a whole slew of new built GFC peak houses that were mostly empty and unsold for years due to the GFC and lack of demand. As far as I can see the area, like the rest of Connemara, is dying a long slow death.

Absolutely no justification whatsoever why I should be taxed more because I am unprepared to take a huge financial risk I think might result in a substantial loss.

And to put the icing on the cake, if such a tax were brought in, I couldn't even sell up to avoid it because of a long running legal problem that would make that impossible.

To be fair to your situation though, I wouldn’t be in favour of a substantial tax on your property. maybe 1% on “market value” just to get such people thinking of alternative uses. Someone with in excess of 5 vacant properties though would make perfect sense. Doesn’t impact the regular person then.

combat14

cnocbui wrote: »

This overpriced thing on here is such a nonsense.

I recently had a pair of high quality earphones which I put up for sale on Adverts. Not a nibble, so I put them up on eBay and sold them in a couple of weeks. The prevailing logic in this thread of what overpriced means would have me as an evil profiteer who was simply asking too much, even selling at a loss.

I hate to even mention it for fear of off-topic Mod-lash, but I think the real problem is disposable incomes, not so much prices.

just curious what the problem with disposable incomes is here ..


Disposable income in Ireland rose 28% between 2012 and 2019

The CSO agency’s latest Survey on Income and Living Conditions shows the average after-tax income of households here stood at €53,118 in 2019.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/disposable-income-in-ireland-rose-28-between-2012-and-2019-1.4392329%3fmode=amp

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Foreign workers WFH in their home countries had nothing to do with the number of vacant apartments detailed in the Sunday Business Post article from last February.

PropQueries wrote: »

Here you go. No paywall.

https://www.dublinlive.ie/news/dublin-news/hundreds-plush-properties-laying-vacant-17800453

Thanks, I have now read it, but I fail to see what in that article precludes some of those properties being empty due to leases ending due to foreign WFH.

The artcle mentions one of the properties as Grand Canal Dock.

"Huge majority of Docklands tenants coming from abroad to work in tech or finance and have average salary of €127,000

Almost all renters in Dublin's Docklands are now coming from abroad to work in the capital, largely in the technology and banking sectors.

Irish tenants make up just 8pc of those who rented a home in the high-cost area during the past year, according to a new report."

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/huge-majority-of-docklands-tenants-coming-from-abroad-to-work-in-tech-or-finance-and-have-average-salary-of-127000-38905936.html

PropQueries

combat14 wrote: »

just curious what the problem with disposable incomes is here ..


Disposable income in Ireland rose 28% between 2012 and 2019

The CSO agency’s latest Survey on Income and Living Conditions shows the average after-tax income of households here stood at €53,118 in 2019.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/disposable-income-in-ireland-rose-28-between-2012-and-2019-1.4392329%3fmode=amp

It’s because just like the government believes it should get its cut from your hard work, property investors believe they should get a similar cut.

It is funny how they say “but you earn so much money”. What’s that got to do with the price a young person should pay for a property?

Young people are also not going to get a pension so that should also be factored into the “disposable income” debate.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Thanks, I have now read it, but I fail to see what in that article precludes some of those properties being empty due to leases ending due to foreign WFH.

The artcle mentions one of the properties as Grand Canal Dock.

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/huge-majority-of-docklands-tenants-coming-from-abroad-to-work-in-tech-or-finance-and-have-average-salary-of-127000-38905936.html

Because the article was written in late February. Lockdown didn’t happen until mid March and then it was only expected to last two weeks.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

To be fair to your situation though, I wouldn’t be in favour of a substantial tax on your property. maybe 1% on “market value” just to get such people thinking of alternative uses. Someone with in excess of 5 vacant properties though would make perfect sense. Doesn’t impact the regular person then.

So tens of thousands of euros in tax over the several decades the property couldn't even be disposed of? Your lack of grasp of the practicalities some people face is epic.