Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

cnocbui

combat14 wrote: »

just curious what the problem with disposable incomes is here ..


Disposable income in Ireland rose 28% between 2012 and 2019

The CSO agency’s latest Survey on Income and Living Conditions shows the average after-tax income of households here stood at €53,118 in 2019.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/disposable-income-in-ireland-rose-28-between-2012-and-2019-1.4392329%3fmode=amp

The CSO definition of disposable doesn't match mine. I'd like to reply further but it would go OT.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

So tens of thousands of euros in tax over the several decades the property couldn't even be disposed of? Your lack of grasp of the practicalities some people face is epic.

If it doesn’t make financial sense, people should be encouraged to sell it, even for €1, like these houses in Liverpool. If they can’t invest, I don’t see why local people who live near such properties should have to see such an eyesore every morning.

If land is a commodity in such short supply (and it’s not), then it’s up to the government to ensure it’s all put to productive use for the benefit of everyone. Such encouragement in a democracy normally comes via the tax system e.g. tax on cigarettes etc.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-merseyside-34474378

Idbatterim

PropQueries wrote: »

Well we’re still building c.16,000-18,000 new residential units this year, mostly in the greater Dublin region. Another 20,000 minimum next year as well, again mostly in the greater Dublin region. Not referencing Covid, but old people continue to die naturally and their properties will continue to add to supply every month out to next September.

Come next September, there’s going to be a significant number of additional homes looking for buyers/renters that are probably not there.

I believe the expected housing output for dublin, is forecast to be less than half of what the actual requirement is! for the first time, there are more apartments being built, than houses. Now, who in gods name with the way a lot of things are going, wants to live in an apartment? I see demand for houses increasing in short term and people may now simply be prepared to live further out of dublin than before, with remote working and choosing it over apartment living...

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

If it doesn’t make financial sense, people should be encouraged to sell it, even for €1, like these houses in Liverpool. If they can’t invest, I don’t see why local people who live near such properties should have to see such an eyesore every morning.

If land is a commodity in such short supply (and it’s not), then it’s up to the government to ensure it’s all put to productive use for the benefit of everyone. Such encouragement in a democracy normally comes via the tax system e.g. tax on cigarettes etc.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-merseyside-34474378

Ha, ha, ha. No one who has ever laid eyes on it has called it an eyesore. That's a new one. Besides which, it's not visible from anywhere:



Are you hard of reading? I can't sell, even for €1. If I did invest, I would not be able to charge a rent commensurate with the capital outlay. There is no shortage of local properties to rent in the area, there is an oversupply.

With such a mind boggling socialist attitude you need to go live in Cuba or somewhere.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Ha, ha, ha. No one who has ever laid eyes on it has called it an eyesore. That's a new one. Besides which, it's not visible from anywhere:



Are you hard of reading? I can't sell, even for €1. If I did invest, I would not be able to charge a rent commensurate with the capital outlay. There is no shortage of local properties to rent in the area, there is an oversupply.

With such a mind boggling socialist attitude you need to go live in Cuba or somewhere.

I wouldn’t move to Cuba. I’d move to Washington D.C. in the states:

“The "Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Support Act of 2010" created a Class 3 property tax rate for vacant commercial and residential properties and a Class 4 tax rate for blighted properties in the District of Columbia. Class 3, vacant property, is taxed at $5.00 per $100 of assessed value and Class 4, blighted property, is taxed at $10.00 per $100 of assessed value.”

Link here: https://otr.cfo.dc.gov/page/otr-vacant-real-property

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Because the article was written in late February. Lockdown didn’t happen until mid March and then it was only expected to last two weeks.

I have my doubts about this article anyway, I randomly picked one Grand Canal Dock building - Hanover Court:

Prices:

One bed apartments – Sold Out
Two bed apartments from €675,000
Three bed apartments – Sold Out
https://hanovercourt.ie/

So not as empty as made out.

Browney7

cnocbui wrote: »

What nonsense is that? Pay-walled again. From the bit I could see it would appear these are on the market and avaialble, it's just people don't want them, most likely due to the amount being asked.

I love how you've the ability to dismiss something as nonsense without even reading it

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

I wouldn’t move to Cuba. I’d move to Washington D.C. in the states:

“The "Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Support Act of 2010" created a Class 3 property tax rate for vacant commercial and residential properties and a Class 4 tax rate for blighted properties in the District of Columbia. Class 3, vacant property, is taxed at $5.00 per $100 of assessed value and Class 4, blighted property, is taxed at $10.00 per $100 of assessed value.”

Link here: https://otr.cfo.dc.gov/page/otr-vacant-real-property

But the house prices in DC are overvalued and due to crash lol :-)

dor843088

cnocbui wrote: »

I have my doubts about this article anyway, I randomly picked one Grand Canal Dock building - Hanover Court:

Prices:

One bed apartments – Sold Out
Two bed apartments from €675,000
Three bed apartments – Sold Out
https://hanovercourt.ie/

So not as empty as made out.

A 2 bed apartment for 675k in Dublin . Mother of god. Even being generous its probably only worth half that.

cnocbui

dor843088 wrote: »

A 2 bed apartment for 675k in Dublin . Mother of god. Even being generous its probably only worth half that.

Maybe. It prety much entirely depends on what it cost to build and it's quality and location. Everything else in that building sold out, so assuming they were priced accordingly, they might not be asking too much. Clearly enough people saw value in the smaller and larger apartments so I susspect the buyers of those have a different perspective on value than you.

Is a 5 bedroom house ever worth €10.5 million? It probably depends.

Springy Turf

dor843088 wrote: »

A 2 bed apartment for 675k in Dublin . Mother of god. Even being generous its probably only worth half that.

Your idea of what something is "worth" is way off. These are modern 2 bed apartments, 80-85 square metres (so the same floor area of a small 3 bed house), in prime location.

If it was up at half price I'd buy it and then have it sale agreed the week after next week for a minimum 250k profit.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Maybe. It prety much entirely depends on what it cost to build and it's quality and location. Everything else in that building sold out, so assuming they were priced accordingly, they might not be asking too much. Clearly enough people saw value in the smaller and larger apartments so I susspect the buyers of those have a different perspective on value than you.

Is a 5 bedroom house ever worth €10.5 million? It probably depends.

The 40 apartments in that development have been on sale for the past 18 months. PPR registers 21 sales so c, 50% maybe empty at the moment. I also wonder how many will/have been bought and let to the council?

It’s a nice development and very well located. Surprised they haven’t all sold by now given all those high paid employees in Google apparently all on €100,000 plus per year and the massive supply shortage in the area...

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

The 40 apartments in that development have been on sale for the past 18 months. PPR registers 21 sales so c, 50% maybe empty at the moment. I also wonder how many will/have been bought and let to the council?

It’s a nice development and very well located. Surprised they haven’t all sold by now given all those high paid employees in Google apparently all on €100,000 plus per year and the massive supply shortage in the area...

Not all google employees are on over €100k. Another ridiculous comment to make.

cubatahavana

cnocbui wrote: »

Ha, ha, ha. No one who has ever laid eyes on it has called it an eyesore. That's a new one. Besides which, it's not visible from anywhere:



Are you hard of reading? I can't sell, even for €1. If I did invest, I would not be able to charge a rent commensurate with the capital outlay. There is no shortage of local properties to rent in the area, there is an oversupply.

With such a mind boggling socialist attitude you need to go live in Cuba or somewhere.

Don’t take this as an attack, but I agree with taxation of properties that have been empty for a long period of time. If the property needs repairs to be fit for living in it, that should be the problem or the owner that did not keep it properly. If there is a legal issue, that is the problem of the owner, it would need to be resolved.

Browney7

cnocbui wrote: »

I have my doubts about this article anyway, I randomly picked one Grand Canal Dock building - Hanover Court:

Prices:

One bed apartments – Sold Out
Two bed apartments from €675,000
Three bed apartments – Sold Out
https://hanovercourt.ie/

So not as empty as made out.

There are 40 apartments over all floors listed. 22 are on the property price register.

The first sale was in September 2019. There were 8 one beds listed. These are all on the price register. There are only 2 three beds which are advertised as "sold out" but not on the register.

dor843088

Springy Turf wrote: »

Your idea of what something is "worth" is way off. These are modern 2 bed apartments, 80-85 square metres (so the same floor area of a small 3 bed house), in prime location.

If it was up at half price I'd buy it and then have it sale agreed the week after next week for a minimum 250k profit.

So youd buy it at my valuation but your not buying at the current price. Youv just proved my point. :rolleyes: 8 grand a square metre is utter madness. That's why they're not sold. Big modern apartments great location etc as you say. Cant shift em = overpriced.

Springy Turf

dor843088 wrote: »

So youd buy it at my valuation but your not buying at the current price. Youv just proved my point. :rolleyes: 8 grand a square metre is utter madness. That's why they're not sold. Big modern apartments great location etc as you say. Cant shift em = overpriced.

You said it was worth half the list price being generous. If you were selling that apartment, would you take 342k for it?

Springy Turf

cnocbui wrote: »

Ha, ha, ha. No one who has ever laid eyes on it has called it an eyesore. That's a new one. Besides which, it's not visible from anywhere:



Are you hard of reading? I can't sell, even for €1. If I did invest, I would not be able to charge a rent commensurate with the capital outlay. There is no shortage of local properties to rent in the area, there is an oversupply.

With such a mind boggling socialist attitude you need to go live in Cuba or somewhere.

If the property is worthless, then any tax levied would be close to zero.

Anyway, I doubt anyone would advocate for taxing vacant properties outside of undersupplied areas.

cnocbui

cubatahavana wrote: »

Don’t take this as an attack, but I agree with taxation of properties that have been empty for a long period of time. If the property needs repairs to be fit for living in it, that should be the problem or the owner that did not keep it properly. If there is a legal issue, that is the problem of the owner, it would need to be resolved.

Repairs? Keep it properly? It's built of stone, in 1893. There isn't so much as a single polystyrene bead of insulation. It's just habitable in summer, but not on 70% of the days of the year, particularly winter. No heating, no insulation, no double glazing, 5 metre ceilings, exposed situation. This is not a matter of repair, as that assumes returning it to a livable state, which it never has been on a permanent basis.

I am trying to resolve the current legal issue but the Irish legal system is an outdated and stupid pile of faeces. I have been at it for two years now. However, there was a previous legal issue which was not something that could be 'resolved' for the past 23 years.

It's a fantasy of the naive to believe that legal issues in Ireland can just be 'resolved' and that anyone not doing so is lazy and feckless.

Springy Turf wrote: »

If the property is worthless, then any tax levied would be close to zero.

Anyway, I doubt anyone would advocate for taxing vacant properties outside of undersupplied areas.

The property isn't worthless by a long shot and I never said that it was. They might not advocate it but you can bet the law of unintended consequnces and poor drafting would result in a swathe of properties being caught up in the tax net that shouldn't have been and were not intended to be.

cnocbui

dor843088 wrote: »

So youd buy it at my valuation but your not buying at the current price. Youv just proved my point. :rolleyes: 8 grand a square metre is utter madness. That's why they're not sold. Big modern apartments great location etc as you say. Cant shift em = overpriced.

If they cost 7.5 grand a square metre to build, would they still be overpriced?

Springy Turf

cnocbui wrote: »

If they cost 7.5 grand a square metre to build, would they still be overpriced?

To be honest. I think the cost to build isn’t relevant if you are talking purely about market value.

That posters perception of value is way off. He says it’s worth 4K per square metre. You’ve to
Go along way outside of the city centre to get that price.

cnocbui

Springy Turf wrote: »

To be honest. I think the cost to build isn’t relevant if you are talking purely about market value.

That posters perception of value is way off. He says it’s worth 4K per square metre. You’ve to
Go along way outside of the city centre to get that price.

You are right there, the disconnect between market value and construction costs (intrinsic value) is the reason hardly any houses were built in the midewest for the past decade and why there is a shortage now. Construction costs are always relevant.

Pelezico

I reckon the NASDAQ is keeping Irish prices up, at least in part. A tech collapse or retracement together with inevitable tax increases would make things interesting.

Springy Turf

Pelezico wrote: »

I reckon the NASDAQ is keeping Irish prices up, at least in part. A tech collapse or retracement together with inevitable tax increases would make things interesting.

I am struggling to see a direct correlation here. Can you explain a little more?

Hubertj

Pelezico wrote: »

I reckon the NASDAQ is keeping Irish prices up, at least in part. A tech collapse or retracement together with inevitable tax increases would make things interesting.

Markets didn’t react well to Microsoft and others posting strong results. I was surprised how well ad revenue held up. Looking at job market in Ireland, obviously AWS but also google are hiring heavily in cloud roles.

Timing belt

Hubertj wrote: »

Markets didn’t react well to Microsoft and others posting strong results. I was surprised how well ad revenue held up. Looking at job market in Ireland, obviously AWS but also google are hiring heavily in cloud roles.

There is a big crash due in Tech stock as share price has no sound financial basis and is more to do with speculation as in the dot.com collapse in 90’s. Will it impact the jobs market or Ireland’s property prices I don’t think so as these Companies are still strong and generating profits just not to the level of their share price valuations.

combat14

interesting to see a 12% drop in apartment rents since march



Developers may need to go back to the drawing board as one-beds fall from favour

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/developers-may-need-to-go-back-to-the-drawing-board-as-one-beds-fall-from-favour-1.4395657?mode=amp

poker--addict

lol at a farmer worried about his recently rezoned land with its massively increased value, and is the cnocbui guy with single vacant house in the middle of nowhere really arguing against the general principle of a tax on vacant homes just because of his rare situation.

Clearly points raised by others suggesting laws or taxes to curb hoarding of land and allowing vacant property to fall into disrepair in urban areas are not suggesting they apply to Jonny with his stone house and no insulation out in Connemara.

silver2020

combat14 wrote: »

interesting to see a 12% drop in apartment rents since march



Developers may need to go back to the drawing board as one-beds fall from favour

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/work/developers-may-need-to-go-back-to-the-drawing-board-as-one-beds-fall-from-favour-1.4395657?mode=amp

Apartments in Dublin have been overpriced in rental terms for several years..

Money on deposit for fund is attracting 0%, so a reasonable return on an apartment after costs should be 3.5%-4% for these funds. (this is the average in Canada) A decent everyday 2 bed in Dublin city should be in the region of €1500- €1800

One beds should not cost more than €1200

But up to recently people have paid the excessive rents and if some good has come from the pandemic, its more realistic rental levels.

There are 3 beds homes going up in Newcastle Co. Dublin for €325k, add costs and furnishings and you are at 340k. a reasonable rent for these should be €1400 pm where the renter gets value and the fund gets a reasonable return.

So property is not overpriced with above example, but returns are way too high and there's plenty of room for rents to fall without prices falling.

Brandon75

Higher the mortgage the more and longer you pay it back which In Dublin would need 350k to 400k just just for a basic house.

My older sister is renting new build with her husband and kids €1800 a month which is crazy for what the house is, bedrooms are tiny and barley any room for two cars with a small garden and faces apartments.