Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

rks

For anyone doubting people leaving:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/the-irish-living-life-for-less-in-sunnier-climes-1.4393494

Of course not everyone can leave but for those who can there are better options outside of Dublin or Ireland.

Hopefully this results in both property price drops and ridiculous rents.

Graham

Mod Note

Discussion of historical vacant property rates moved to:
Vacant Properties in Ireland

dev_ire

rks wrote: »

For anyone doubting people leaving:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/the-irish-living-life-for-less-in-sunnier-climes-1.4393494

Of course not everyone can leave but for those who can there are better options outside of Dublin or Ireland.

Hopefully this results in both property price drops and ridiculous rents.

Companies are asking people to come back, or to take pay cuts to do this for tax reasons they can't be paying people Dublin or Ireland prices if you are off elsewhere for most of the year.

Pelezico

rks wrote: »

For anyone doubting people leaving:

https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/the-irish-living-life-for-less-in-sunnier-climes-1.4393494

Of course not everyone can leave but for those who can there are better options outside of Dublin or Ireland.

Hopefully this results in both property price drops and ridiculous rents.

Ridiculous article. This is the Irish Times of course so the story is non journalism. They interviews a few people taling career breaks.

HairySalmon

dev_ire wrote: »

Companies are asking people to come back, or to take pay cuts to do this for tax reasons they can't be paying people Dublin or Ireland prices if you are off elsewhere for most of the year.

Never once heard of anyone being asked to take a pay cut that’s nonsense

dev_ire

HairySalmon wrote: »

Never once heard of anyone being asked to take a pay cut that’s nonsense

https://www.siliconrepublic.com/careers/google-deadline-irish-based-staff-return-home

Of course this will happen more and more, why would they pay American or Irish wages to people working over half the year (or local tax law time limits) abroad?

Donald Trump

HairySalmon wrote: »

Never once heard of anyone being asked to take a pay cut that’s nonsense

Companies that have remote working will have different payscales depending on where you are located. It was quite common already (pre corona) for such systems in companies that ran that way.

Interested Observer

HairySalmon wrote: »

Never once heard of anyone being asked to take a pay cut that’s nonsense

It's not nonsense. If you work for Facebook or Google they aren't going to employ you in Ireland and pay you your Irish salary while you decide to live in Greece

lalababa

JimmyVik wrote: »

10% to 20% down or up?
Can you link some examples?

10-20% down. Can't link. How do you link? (Serious question). I'll put in reference for time being.
11 Knightshaven , Valentia, Kerry my home asking 168,500-ppr-130,000.
21 Ashfield, Greenville ,Listowel,
My home asking 345,000-ppr-Oct 300,000.
I checked about 6/7 properties and theses were the first two that I could find cashe asking prices.

PropQueries

Looks like the bigger build-to-rent/buy-to-let investors are soaking up all the extra cash allocated to housing in the Budget:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

If I was a small residential property investor, I would be getting all my documentation in order before there's no cash left.

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/market-for-private-rentals-is-strong-with-shortage-of-supply-a-big-factor-39694960.html

poker--addict

Interested Observer wrote: »

It's not nonsense. If you work for Facebook or Google they aren't going to employ you in Ireland and pay you your Irish salary while you decide to live in Greece

Salaries in Dublin tech aren’t high because the companies feel sorry for staff with high rent. It is skill supply and demand. Salaries won’t reduce. The request for employees to return to Ireland is due to tax legislation. They can return and park themselves in Donegal, or most probably in Meath, or in Kildare which unlike Meath has rain.

IAmTheReign

PropQueries wrote: »

Looks like the bigger build-to-rent/buy-to-let investors are soaking up all the extra cash allocated to housing in the Budget:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

If I was a small residential property investor, I would be getting all my documentation in order before there's no cash left.

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/market-for-private-rentals-is-strong-with-shortage-of-supply-a-big-factor-39694960.html

Hang on, you were only on here the other day making claims of a serious oversupply and saying that there's no demand.

PropQueries wrote: »

Some day. But from just looking at the number of a-rated turn-key apartments and houses for sale and rent in Dublin on MyHome.ie, the figure must be at least in the 5,000-6,000 range. That’s a fairly significant number of new build homes looking for occupiers and is significant for such a small city, We’re not London. And we’re still expected to build c.16,000-18,000 this year with most to be built in the greater Dublin region...

PropQueries wrote: »

I don’t believe the demand was there this time last year. I don’t believe there’s any demand right now. And I believe there will be less than zero demand this time next year and right out to 2030 at least.

And yet here you are linking an article with the headline 'Market for private rentals is strong with shortage of supply a big factor'

So which is it?

PropQueries

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Hang on, you were only on here the other day making claims of a serious oversupply and saying that there's no demand.





And yet here you are linking an article with the headline 'Market for private rentals is strong with shortage of supply a big factor'

So which is it?

It's the first one The only reason the bigger build-to-rent investors are now going to lease to the state in bulk is that there was no previous demand, there is no current demand and they've realised over the past 12 months there will be no future demand from the private rental market for their units. They're getting their hands on all this extra cash in the housing budget before the small time residential property investors cop on to the true nature of the property market.

As per the article I linked:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

poker--addict

Or the state is vastly overpaying

dev_ire

poker--addict wrote: »

Salaries in Dublin tech aren’t high because the companies feel sorry for staff with high rent. It is skill supply and demand. Salaries won’t reduce. The request for employees to return to Ireland is due to tax legislation. They can return and park themselves in Donegal, or most probably in Meath, or in Kildare which unlike Meath has rain.

This is true as long as you can make it to the office as often as needed, this is true whether you work from home or not.

PropQueries

poker--addict wrote: »

Or the state is vastly overpaying

Well of course they're over-paying. It's your money, not theirs. But it won't be too long before the mandarins in the Department of Finance put a block on new expressions of interest in their long-term leasing solution. These are long-term permanent additions to current expenditure and the maths don't add up at the moment and they definitely won't add up come next February.

IAmTheReign

PropQueries wrote: »

It's the first one The only reason the bigger build-to-rent investors are now going to lease to the state in bulk is that there was no previous demand, there is no current demand and they've realised over the past 12 months there will be no future demand from the private rental market for their units. They're getting their hands on all this extra cash in the housing budget before the small time residential property investors cop on to the true nature of the property market.

As per the article I linked:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

Also as per the article you linked it specifically says that the private rental market has remained strong due to a lack of supply.

The private rental market is among the few areas of the commercial property sector to so far escape being negatively impacted by the threat of a hard Brexit and Covid-19.

This is due, in part, to a continued shortage of supply.

And yet you read it and think it supports your idea that there's an oversupply?

Nowhere in the article does it say the only reason they're investing is to lease to the state. Have you any evidence that this is the case?

It also doesn't say that only bigger build to rent investors are interested in leasing to local authorities. Have you any evidence that this is the case either?

According to you there's already thousands of vacant investment properties that could be let to the state already. If investment funds really were only interested in letting to the state, and the state really was interested in letting from them, why are they vacant right now? And why would investment funds build new property to rent to the state when they haven't rented the stock they already have to them?

PropQueries

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Also as per the article you linked it specifically says that the private rental market has remained strong due to a lack of supply.



And yet you read it and think it supports your idea that there's an oversupply?

Nowhere in the article does it say the only reason they're investing is to lease to the state. Have you any evidence that this is the case?

It also doesn't say that only bigger build to rent investors are interested in leasing to local authorities. Have you any evidence that this is the case either?

According to you there's already thousands of vacant investment properties that could be let to the state already. If investment funds really were only interested in letting to the state, and the state really was interested in letting from them, why are they vacant right now? And why would investment funds build new property to rent to the state when they haven't rented the stock they already have to them?

Apologies, I didn't realise there had been a significant drop in the number of units to rent on Daft.ie over the past 6 months.

As per the article I linked:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

IAmTheReign

PropQueries wrote: »

Apologies, I didn't realise there had been a significant drop in the number of units to rent on Daft.ie over the past 6 months.

As per the article I linked:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

That's 3 times now you've posted that same one line from the article. I don't think anyone needed to read it again. Now could you answer my questions about your claims?

Where is the evidence this is the ONLY reason anyone is investing?

Where is the evidence that this is ONLY large scale build to let investors?

If the primary reason for investing is to rent to the state why have they not already leased the stock they already have to LAs?

If there is a chronic oversupply why are they planning to build more if they can't lease the stock they already have?

PropQueries

IAmTheReign wrote: »

That's 3 times now you've posted that same one line from the article. I don't think anyone needed to read it again. Now could you answer my questions about your claims?

Where is the evidence this is the ONLY reason anyone is investing?

Where is the evidence that this is ONLY large scale build to let investors?

If the primary reason for investing is to rent to the state why have they not already leased the stock they already have to LAs?

If there is a chronic oversupply why are they planning to build more if they can't lease the stock they already have?

It's not me that's stating it. it's CBRE:

As per the article I linked:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

Unless you now also don't trust the report from CBRE? Maybe you're right though. There's probably no link between 'an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months' and the near doubling of units to rent on Daft.ie over the past 6 months.

Springy Turf

PropQueries wrote: »

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

4th time. You're some wind up merchant.

PropQueries

Springy Turf wrote: »

4th time. You're some wind up merchant.

And 4 times he stated there was nothing in that article that stated such a thing

But I will now agree with him (out of exasperation) that there's probably no link whatsoever between 'an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months' and the near doubling of units to rent on Daft.ie over the past 6 months.

Springy Turf

How did you get from 'an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months' to your statement that "The only reason the bigger build-to-rent investors are now going to lease to the state in bulk is that there was no previous demand, there is no current demand and they've realised over the past 12 months there will be no future demand"

IAmTheReign

IAmTheReign wrote: »

That's 3 times now you've posted that same one line from the article. I don't think anyone needed to read it again.

PropQueries wrote: »

It's not me that's stating it. it's CBRE:

As per the article I linked:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

:pac:

PropQueries wrote: »

Unless you now also don't trust the report from CBRE? Maybe you're right though. There's probably no link between 'an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months' and the near doubling of units to rent on Daft.ie over the past 6 months.

I haven't seen the report from CBRE, and I would guess neither have you since all you've done is post a line from an article about it.

I never said that there wasn't a link between people being interested in letting to LAs and the increase in available rental properties. Obviously it stands to reason that property investors would investigate other options, you'd be a pretty bad businessman not to investigate all your options given the current situation.

There's a big leap from 'an escalation of interest' to this though;

PropQueries wrote: »

It's the first one The only reason the bigger build-to-rent investors are now going to lease to the state in bulk is that there was no previous demand, there is no current demand and they've realised over the past 12 months there will be no future demand from the private rental market for their units. They're getting their hands on all this extra cash in the housing budget before the small time residential property investors cop on to the true nature of the property market.

The quote you posted does not say anything remotely in support of your claim that the only reason anyone is investing is to rent to the state, or that it's only bigger build to let investors. I am assuming since you haven't posed anything to support your claims we can all dismiss them as wild speculation?

PropQueries

Springy Turf wrote: »

How did you get from 'an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months' to your statement that "The only reason the bigger build-to-rent investors are now going to lease to the state in bulk is that there was no previous demand, there is no current demand and they've realised over the past 12 months there will be no future demand"

Simple.

No previous demand from private sector:

From last February (pre-covid):

"The luxury gap: hundreds of high-end apartments lying empty across Dublin"

Link to Sunday Business Post here: https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/the-luxury-gap-hundreds-of-high-end-apartments-lying-empty-across-dublin-ac7da06c

No current demand from private sector:

Units to rent on Daft.ie near doubling over the past 6 months.

No future demand from private sector:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

Link to article in Irish Independent today: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/market-for-private-rentals-is-strong-with-shortage-of-supply-a-big-factor-39694960.html

Mad_maxx

poker--addict wrote: »

Salaries in Dublin tech aren’t high because the companies feel sorry for staff with high rent. It is skill supply and demand. Salaries won’t reduce. The request for employees to return to Ireland is due to tax legislation. They can return and park themselves in Donegal, or most probably in Meath, or in Kildare which unlike Meath has rain.

Meath gets more rain than Kildare

IAmTheReign

PropQueries wrote: »

Simple.

No previous demand from private sector:

From last February (pre-covid):

"The luxury gap: hundreds of high-end apartments lying empty across Dublin"

Link to Sunday Business Post here: https://www.businesspost.ie/ireland/the-luxury-gap-hundreds-of-high-end-apartments-lying-empty-across-dublin-ac7da06c

No current demand from private sector:

Units to rent on Daft.ie near doubling over the past 6 months.

No future demand from private sector:

"There has been an escalation in interest from both domestic and international investors in long-term leasing to local authorities over the last few months, according to a report from commercial real estate services group CBRE Ireland."

Link to article in Irish Independent today: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/market-for-private-rentals-is-strong-with-shortage-of-supply-a-big-factor-39694960.html

Only you could read an article with the headline 'Market for private rentals is strong with shortage of supply a big factor' and say there's no future demand from the private sector.

I can selectively quote news articles too!

Evidence of previous demand from private sector:

From last April (pre-covid):

Overnight queues for chance to buy a house

'In a throwback to the kind of scenes witnessed at the height of the Celtic Tiger housing bubble, wanna-be homeowners queued overnight in a Cork city suburb for a chance to buy a home.

According to eye-witnesses, as many as 35 people slept in their cars outside the newly-developed Heathfield Estate, in Ballincollig, last Friday night, for an opportunity to buy into the scheme, as part of a “third release” of homes.'

Evidence of current demand from private sector:

The Daft.ie House Price Report Q3 2020


'In the third quarter of the year, however, prices rose by an average of 4.8% in just three months. This is the largest quarterly increase in average prices
since the start of 2015 and the fourth largest three quarter jump overall, in a series extending back to the start of 2006.'

'Supply down 25%. There were just over 4,000 properties on the market in Dublin on October 1, down from almost 5,500 on the same date a year ago.'

Evidence of future demand from private sector:

Market for private rentals is strong with shortage of supply a big factor

'The private rental market is among the few areas of the commercial property sector to so far escape being negatively impacted by the threat of a hard Brexit and Covid-19.

This is due, in part, to a continued shortage of supply.'

(This is the same article you linked. Funny how easy it is to selectively quote news articles to make any argument you want eh?)

cnocbui

Springy Turf wrote: »

4th time. You're some wind up merchant.

I'd like to swap him for that Estonian guy, he was far more fun.

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

I'd like to swap him for that Estonian guy, he was far more fun.

Well if I'm right, the small residential investor landlord in Ireland is going to be paying on the double for not getting his documentation in order as of today i.e. 1. the big domestic and international residential property investors will soak up all the available cash allocated under the long-term leasing initiative long before they get a look-in and there won't be any cash left for the small time residential property investor by the time he does get his documentation in order and, 2. his taxes on rental income, property taxes, income taxes etc. will rise to meet the ongoing cost of these long-term leasing initiatives.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Well if I'm right, the small residential investor landlord in Ireland is going to be paying on the double for not getting his documentation in order as of today i.e. 1. the big domestic and international residential property investors will soak up all the available cash allocated under the long-term leasing initiative long before they get a look-in and there won't be any cash left for the small time residential property investor by the time he does get his documentation in order and, 2. his taxes on rental income, property taxes, income taxes etc. will rise to meet the ongoing cost of these long-term leasing initiatives.

Is the government now the only entity in the country renting apartments and houses? I learn something new every day.