Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

fliball123

<SNIP>

monkey8

https://www.irishexaminer.com/business/economy/arid-40068011.html
S&P are predicting that house prices will fall slightly in 2021 as COVID supports dry up but will be one of the fastest rising prices in europe for the next two years.

Is it as simple as the demand for housing outstripping demand or is there any real risk of a crash in the property market?

Tea drinker

fliball123 wrote: »

Yeah and then watch all the MNCs re-evaluate where they decide to set up their Euro head quarters. Remember the MNCs also pay tax for each employee they hire not to mention the employee paying tax as well. If Sinn Fein start fecking around in that are it may well spell the end of Ireland. You only have to look at the differential between our GDP and our GNP to see how much money they bring in.

True.... it's going to be a delicate balancing act going forward...

Ireland received more FDI than any other country in first half of 2020

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1030/1174965-fdi-oecd-ireland/

cnocbui

Tea drinker wrote: »

True.... it's going to be a delicate balancing act going forward...

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2020/1030/1174965-fdi-oecd-ireland/

Wouldn't the activities of Reits purchasing properties and debt count towards FDI?

PropQueries

cnocbui wrote: »

Wouldn't the activities of Reits purchasing properties and debt count towards FDI?

Unless this FDI was used to build 20 new Intel plants in the first 6 months of the year, I would assume it's just money moving around on a computer screen.

PropQueries

Interesting article in the Irish Times today titled: 'College September 2021: What will student life be like?'

One expert's conclusion is the following:

"But ultimately I think a lot of campus buildings are destined to become data centres."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/college-september-2021-what-will-student-life-be-like-1.4389591

PommieBast

PropQueries wrote: »

"But ultimately I think a lot of campus buildings are destined to become data centres."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/college-september-2021-what-will-student-life-be-like-1.4389591

Probably more for the thread on the college degree bubble bursting. If such a shift towards virtual universities was to have a significant effect on the real-estate institutions have, then there will also be questions on whether the students actually need to be in the same country.

PropQueries

PommieBast wrote: »

Probably more for the thread on the college degree bubble bursting. If such a shift towards virtual universities was to have a significant effect on the real-estate institutions have, then there will also be questions on whether the students actually need to be in the same country.

Probably. But it does raise questions on how UCD will manage to repay all that debt they took on to build their student accommodation units and the impact on the three-bed houses rented to students close to the major universities in our cities:

"The university is currently constructing new residences and a student village. This development is costing in the region of €500m and is funded largely through bank loans.”

Link to Irish Times here on UCD student accommodation debt: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/ucd-to-increase-campus-rent-by-12-over-three-years-1.4163042

Sarn

<Moved to other thread>

JimmyVik

Once covid is over I think we will all be surprised how quickly its forgotten and everything goes back to the way it was before.
People will be working in offices, people will want to be living in the cities. People will be buying houses.

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

Once covid is over I think we will all be surprised how quickly its forgotten and everything goes back to the way it was before.
People will be working in offices, people will want to be living in the cities. People will be buying houses.

I'm not so sure. Three days ago:

"Tánaiste's department says remote working for its civil servants will be permanent feature in future"

Link to article here: https://www.thejournal.ie/home-working-department-business-5249257-Oct2020/

JimmyVik

PropQueries wrote: »

I'm not so sure. Three days ago:

"Tánaiste's department says remote working for its civil servants will be permanent feature in future"

Link to article here: https://www.thejournal.ie/home-working-department-business-5249257-Oct2020/

One word. Decentralization.
Believe it when you see it.

brisan

JimmyVik wrote: »

Once covid is over I think we will all be surprised how quickly its forgotten and everything goes back to the way it was before.
People will be working in offices, people will want to be living in the cities. People will be buying houses.

I fully expected the housing market to suffer a drop by now
I was wrong
The Government is keeping the whole economy on life support for now
How many businesses will survive a bad Dec ??
One thing is for certain ,in the future we will all be living a new normal .
Not sure what that will be but it will be different to what we are used to

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting article in the Irish Times today titled: 'College September 2021: What will student life be like?'

One expert's conclusion is the following:

"But ultimately I think a lot of campus buildings are destined to become data centres."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/college-september-2021-what-will-student-life-be-like-1.4389591

That’s a very stupid comment to make. Whatever the future of universities may or may not look like only an idiot could think data centres would be suitable locations for universities. Hardly surprising an idiotic comment was quoted.

PropQueries

JimmyVik wrote: »

One word. Decentralization.
Believe it when you see it.

Even if all the existing staff refuse WFH, many newer hires over the next few years will most likely gladly avail of such an option if it results in them avoiding higher rents in the cities.

Less young workers starting in our cities equals less demand for housing (renting or buying) in our cities 5 years down the road.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

That’s a very stupid comment to make. Whatever the future of universities may or may not look like only an idiot could think data centres would be suitable locations for universities. Hardly surprising an idiotic comment was quoted.

Well our universities can't be the only ones in the world to disregard online learning with maybe only one or two days on campus if the rest of the worlds universities go down that route.

If the students are only on campus one or two days a week, they'll just buy a car for the commute for those couple of days a week instead of spending €200 per week on a room they won't be using for the most part.

Knex*

The college experience is not one that can be totally distilled down to just lectures & education. I went into college every single day, and I'd say I attended about 1 in 3 lectures, at best.

So much of it is social development, environmental, and ultimately about exposure to people and things that you cannot replicate digitally. It's a critical stage in many young people's personal development, and for many, a decision on what college they attend is as much about the perceived social benefits as it is education.

Similar logic as to why I don't particularly envisage the death of cities. People weren't moving to cities just for the jobs. There's a whole bunch of incentives, social and otherwise, that the work from home movement will not be able to address. No doubt it'll have an impact, but the experience factors will still be relevant and will still have pull once we begin to put restrictions behind us.

cnocbui

PropQueries wrote: »

Interesting article in the Irish Times today titled: 'College September 2021: What will student life be like?'

One expert's conclusion is the following:

"But ultimately I think a lot of campus buildings are destined to become data centres."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/college-september-2021-what-will-student-life-be-like-1.4389591

My ex is a lecturer and absolutely hates the considerable extra workload involved in the remote teaching and I wouldn't be surprised if she and other academics just bailed if some clowns wanted to make it a new normal. That expert is another one of the many idiots proclaiming a lot of the current COVID measures and responses will become permanent. They wont. All things tend towards a least efffort, least cost model. Covid responses are like stretching lots of things out of shape that are shaped by rubber bands. As soon as the tension is released things will rapidly go back to the way they were unless the new way is easier and cheaper.

The Open University in the Uk has been around a while, but I don't think anyone would rate it's students as highly as they do those who emerge from full-class contact institutions.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Well our universities can't be the only ones in the world to disregard online learning with maybe only one or two days on campus if the rest of the worlds universities go down that route.

If the students are only on campus one or two days a week, they'll just buy a car for the commute for those couple of days a week instead of spending €200 per week on a room they won't be using for the most part.

Yes commuting from Kerry to Dublin a few times a week is practical.

tigger123

JimmyVik wrote: »

One word. Decentralization.
Believe it when you see it.

There was little or no support for decnetralisation across the civil service when it was announced.

There's huge support for a blended approach to WFH across the civil service.

Plus, the Government are paying through the nose for city rents.

PropQueries

Knex* wrote: »

The college experience is not one that can be totally distilled down to just lectures & education. I went into college every single day, and I'd say I attended about 1 in 3 lectures, at best.

So much of it is social development, environmental, and ultimately about exposure to people and things that you cannot replicate digitally. It's a critical stage in many young people's personal development, and for many, a decision on what college they attend is as much about the perceived social benefits as it is education.

Similar logic as to why I don't particularly envisage the death of cities. People weren't moving to cities just for the jobs. There's a whole bunch of incentives, social and otherwise, that the work from home movement will not be able to address. No doubt it'll have an impact, but the experience factors will still be relevant and will still have pull once we begin to put restrictions behind us.

Well, if you're from down the country, I can tell you the vast majority don't enjoy the first three months (at least not to the extent you see on those Hollywood films etc. ). Most are very eager to get home every weekend and for Christmas to see their friends etc.

It takes a long time to build up an equivalent social network as the one they left at home and if they don't live here, they won't build it up and won't miss it.

Many workers after leaving college also travel home most weekends until they build up a similar social network in the cities. Can't miss what they haven't experienced to begin with.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Yes commuting from Kerry to Dublin a few times a week is practical.

It's a two hour drive from Limerick City to Dublin off-peak. The motorway network is very good now. It's not like back in the 80's when it took 4-5 hours to do the same drive.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

It's a two hour drive from Limerick City to Dublin off-peak. The motorway network is very good now. It's not like back in the 80's when it took 4-5 hours to do the same drive.

And that has what to do with Kerry? Do you now choose where to go to university based on where you live? As for your comment about the first 3 months of college you are clueless. More idiotic by the day.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

And that has what to do with Kerry? Do you now choose where to go to university based on where you live? As for your comment about the first 3 months of college you are clueless. More idiotic by the day.

Apologies. c. three hour drive from the middle of Kerry to Dublin off peak. A two hour drive from Galway to Dublin and a two hour drive from Limerick to Dublin. Not much more from Cork.

That basically means most rural Ireland students attending a university in Dublin would be at most a 2 hour drive away. If they're in one or two days a week, I think many will make that 'commuting sacrifice' to save c. €200 a week on rent excl. ESB bills, heating, food, cleaning, socialising costs, luas/bus/dart card etc. etc. etc.

Just to add. Do you not think the parents will have a say in their choice on whether to commute or not? If the parents can save at least €5,000 a year, they will most likely tell them to take the family car for the day and they'll rent an apartment for them in the closet town instead of forking out c. €12,000 per year.

"Cost of going to college in Dublin? €12,495 a year with rent. DIT guide says staying at home is more than €5,000 cheaper than living in rented housing"

Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/cost-of-going-to-college-in-dublin-12-495-a-year-with-rent-1.3139428?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Feducation%2Fcost-of-going-to-college-in-dublin-12-495-a-year-with-rent-1.3139428

I think the parents, especially if they have two or three heading off to college will most likely make the decision for them.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Apologies. c. three hour drive from the middle of Kerry to Dublin off peak. A two hour drive from Galway to Dublin and a two hour drive from Limerick to Dublin. Not much more from Cork.

That basically means most rural Ireland students attending a university in Dublin would be at most a 2 hour drive away. If they're in one or two days a week, I think many will make that 'commuting sacrifice' to save c. €200 a week on rent excl. ESB bills, heating, food, cleaning, socialising costs, luas/bus/dart card etc. etc. etc.

Just to add. Do you not think the parents will have a say in their choice on whether to commute or not? If the parents can save at least €5,000 a year, they will most likely tell them to take the family car for the day and they'll rent an apartment for them in the closet town instead of forking out c. €12,000 per year.

"Cost of going to college in Dublin? €12,495 a year with rent. DIT guide says staying at home is more than €5,000 cheaper than living in rented housing"

Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/cost-of-going-to-college-in-dublin-12-495-a-year-with-rent-1.3139428?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Feducation%2Fcost-of-going-to-college-in-dublin-12-495-a-year-with-rent-1.3139428

I think the parents, especially if they have two or three heading off to college will most likely make the decision for them.

You seem to forget that there are colleges outside Dublin.

The other thing is that if you travel in peak traffic you can add 2-3 hours on a round trip.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

You seem to forget that there are colleges outside Dublin.

The other thing is that if you travel in peak traffic you can add 2-3 hours on a round trip.

Good point. Unlike in the 1980s and 1990s, most rural Ireland students are probably at most an hours drive away from their nearest university. This pandemic has (like the WFH made companies realise their employees can indeed work full-time from home) pushed many students and parents into realising that they don't have to pay high rents in any of our cities in order for their children to attend one of the major universities in Ireland.

Even if universities forced all students back full time, I think the maximum one hour drive over and back from University will remain a major and realistic option going forward.

In relation to peak-time commuting, just like when WFH and more flexible working is implemented post-covid, most employers and colleges aren't going to set their start/finish times around the busy commuting hours.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

Good point. Unlike in the 1980s and 1990s, most rural Ireland students are probably at most an hours drive away from their nearest university. This pandemic has (like the WFH made companies realise their employees can indeed work full-time from home) pushed many students and parents into realising that they don't have to pay high rents in any of our cities in order for their children to attend one of the major universities in Ireland.

Even if universities forced all students back full time, I think the maximum one hour drive over and back from University will remain a major and realistic option going forward.

In relation to peak-time commuting, just like when WFH and more flexible working is implemented post-covid, most employers and colleges aren't going to set their start/finish times around the busy commuting hours.

There will always be peak traffic and even if you were renting in a city it will take an hour to get to college unless you are living next door. It does seem that you are beginning to grasp at straws now to find a reason for house prices to drop. I’m not saying they won’t but if they do it will be down to unemployment or reduced pay simple as.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

There will always be peak traffic and even if you were renting in a city it will take an hour to get to college unless you are living next door. It does seem that you are beginning to grasp at straws now to find a reason for house prices to drop. I’m not saying they won’t but if they do it will be down to unemployment or reduced pay simple as.

You should drive from the South Side into the city after 10 a.m. on any weekday ( I used do this pre-covid) - it's not much different to driving on a Sunday. We're Dublin, not London.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Apologies. c. three hour drive from the middle of Kerry to Dublin off peak. A two hour drive from Galway to Dublin and a two hour drive from Limerick to Dublin. Not much more from Cork.

That basically means most rural Ireland students attending a university in Dublin would be at most a 2 hour drive away. If they're in one or two days a week, I think many will make that 'commuting sacrifice' to save c. €200 a week on rent excl. ESB bills, heating, food, cleaning, socialising costs, luas/bus/dart card etc. etc. etc.

Just to add. Do you not think the parents will have a say in their choice on whether to commute or not? If the parents can save at least €5,000 a year, they will most likely tell them to take the family car for the day and they'll rent an apartment for them in the closet town instead of forking out c. €12,000 per year.

"Cost of going to college in Dublin? €12,495 a year with rent. DIT guide says staying at home is more than €5,000 cheaper than living in rented housing"

Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/education/cost-of-going-to-college-in-dublin-12-495-a-year-with-rent-1.3139428?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Feducation%2Fcost-of-going-to-college-in-dublin-12-495-a-year-with-rent-1.3139428

I think the parents, especially if they have two or three heading off to college will most likely make the decision for them.

Did you read the article? Finances are the only consideration in relation to attending college / university? What is the annual cost of running a car? Is it feasible for students to commute a few times a week from kerry to dublin?
I give up. Think what you like.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

Did you read the article? Finances are the only consideration in relation to attending college / university? What is the annual cost of running a car? Is it feasible for students to commute a few times a week from kerry to dublin?
I give up. Think what you like.

Whether you live in Tralee or Killarney, you're just over an hours drive to either Limerick University or Cork University. It's not like when I was going to university back in the 1980's when the journey would take twice as long.

It may not have made sense back in the 1980's (especially when rents were substantially cheaper and the home comforts weren't as good as today), but it definitely makes sense now and many many future students will take that commuting option up with some encouragement from their parents IMO.

Just like WFH, it's has now been tried and tested and it works.