Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries

Yara Rich Camouflage wrote: »

why? do you think a 19 year old from Dingle is doing to do a near 6 hr round trip daily to go to college in UCC?

It's a 2 hour journey to Cork or Limerick from Dingle. The roads have improved significantly since the 1980's if that's your reference point. I would assume most potential future students are not living in Dingle and many may, quite possibly, may be living in Tralee, Killarney or similar distances from either University (a one hour drive back and forth) etc. if that's the one location you want to choose.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Whether you live in Tralee or Killarney, you're just over an hours drive to either Limerick University or Cork University. It's not like when I was going to university back in the 1980's when the journey would take twice as long.

It may not have made sense back in the 1980's (especially when rents were substantially cheaper and the home comforts weren't as good as today), but it definitely makes sense now and many many future students will take that commuting option up with some encouragement from their parents IMO.

Just like WFH, it's has now been tried and tested and it works.

how much does it cost to run a car per year? this has to be 1 of the more stupid arguments you have made on boards and there have been many..... i really do give up.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

how much does it cost to run a car per year? this has to be 1 of the more stupid arguments you have made on boards and there have been many..... i really do give up.

If they're only commuting one or two days a week, I would assume the parents might be only too happy to loan them the family car for the day.

But just for the Dublin posters who haven't travelled outside Dublin since the 1980s. The trip up to Dublin is no longer the endurance test it once was. From Galway City in the West of the country to Dublin City in the East of the country it's just over a 2 hour car journey. We're a tiny country and now all that investment in our road network over the past 30 years will finally pay dividends.

Cantstandsya

cnocbui wrote: »

My ex is a lecturer and absolutely hates the considerable extra workload involved in the remote teaching and I wouldn't be surprised if she and other academics just bailed if some clowns wanted to make it a new normal. That expert is another one of the many idiots proclaiming a lot of the current COVID measures and responses will become permanent. They wont. All things tend towards a least efffort, least cost model. Covid responses are like stretching lots of things out of shape that are shaped by rubber bands. As soon as the tension is released things will rapidly go back to the way they were unless the new way is easier and cheaper.

The Open University in the Uk has been around a while, but I don't think anyone would rate it's students as highly as they do those who emerge from full-class contact institutions.

Most of academia is a pyramid scheme so if your ex is lucky enough to have nabbed a job at the top of the pyramid then they will either stay there or be replaced sharpish if they decide to jump.

Anyway, why would anyone bother "attending" any Irish university if remote learning becomes established? You will end up with Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and MIT providing online tuition to the entire planet.

cnocbui

cnocbui wrote: »

My ex is a lecturer and absolutely hates the considerable extra workload involved in the remote teaching and I wouldn't be surprised if she and other academics just bailed if some clowns wanted to make it a new normal. ...................

Bailed and do what to earn a living?

PommieBast

Timing belt wrote: »

The other thing is that if you travel in peak traffic you can add 2-3 hours on a round trip.

Also add parking, which the Green lobby is trying to make extinct...

Ap2020

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Most of academia is a pyramid scheme so if your ex is lucky enough to have nabbed a job at the top of the pyramid then they will either stay there or be replaced sharpish if they decide to jump.

Anyway, why would anyone bother "attending" any Irish university if remote learning becomes established? You will end up with Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and MIT providing online tuition to the entire planet.

There are some disciplines that will still require Irish academics - law being an obvious one.

But you're right, I wouldn't see anyone bothering with a legal degree from an IT or, really, anywhere but TCD

cnocbui

Augeo wrote: »

Bailed and do what to earn a living?

Electrical engineer.

Donald Trump

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Most of academia is a pyramid scheme so if your ex is lucky enough to have nabbed a job at the top of the pyramid then they will either stay there or be replaced sharpish if they decide to jump.

Anyway, why would anyone bother "attending" any Irish university if remote learning becomes established? You will end up with Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and MIT providing online tuition to the entire planet.

Depends on your idea of a university

Cardinal Newman wrote:

And to make his point in an extreme way he contrasts the new London University which “dispensed with residence and tutorial superintendence,” giving “its degrees to any person who passed an examination,” with the Oxford of the eighteenth century which is said to have “merely brought a number of young men together for three or four years, and then sent them away.” And he says flatly, “if I were asked which of these two methods were the better discipline of the intellect … if I must determine which of the two courses was the more successful in training, moulding, enlarging the mind … I have no hesitation in giving the preference to that University which did nothing, over that which exacted of its members an acquaintance with every science under the sun.”

TheSheriff

Cantstandsya wrote: »

Most of academia is a pyramid scheme so if your ex is lucky enough to have nabbed a job at the top of the pyramid then they will either stay there or be replaced sharpish if they decide to jump.

Anyway, why would anyone bother "attending" any Irish university if remote learning becomes established? You will end up with Oxford, Cambridge, Harvard and MIT providing online tuition to the entire planet.

Because you will end up paying significantly more to study at MIT et. al.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

If they're only commuting one or two days a week, I would assume the parents might be only too happy to loan them the family car for the day.

But just for the Dublin posters who haven't travelled outside Dublin since the 1980s. The trip up to Dublin is no longer the endurance test it once was. From Galway City in the West of the country to Dublin City in the East of the country it's just over a 2 hour car journey. We're a tiny country and now all that investment in our road network over the past 30 years will finally pay dividends.

These are ridiculous theories PropQueries, its almost as if the crash you've been proclaiming about the past 8 months hasn't happened yet, so you are trying to come up with any theory you can now.

There is more to attending University than the lectures/people attend for various social reasons. It's silly to suggest otherwise.

If Universities move to full time online post-pandemic they will quickly lose their USP. International students come to Trinity so that forever more they are part of that institution, with its various connections and any associated professional (and personal) doors that opens.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

These are ridiculous theories PropQueries, its almost as if the crash you've been proclaiming about the past 8 months hasn't happened yet, so you are trying to come up with any theory you can now.

There is more to attending University than the lectures/people attend for various social reasons. It's silly to suggest otherwise.

If Universities move to full time online post-pandemic they will quickly lose their USP. International students come to Trinity so that forever more they are part of that institution, with its various connections and any associated professional (and personal) doors that opens.

1. Never said full time. I’m assuming progression to one or two day weeks in the next few years. Hence the discussion on commuting times to the various university cities.

2. Have never once proclaimed any immediate housing crash. I’ve always been very consistent that based on demand/supply dynamics, I believe house prices in Dublin will be worth at most c.50% of today’s values in 5 to 10 years time. I fully understand the lag effect and illiquid nature of property.

beauf

tigger123 wrote: »

There was little or no support for decnetralisation across the civil service when it was announced.

There's huge support for a blended approach to WFH across the civil service.

Plus, the Government are paying through the nose for city rents.

People haven't forgotten, or forgiven the last shambolic decentralisation.

beauf

brisan wrote: »

I fully expected the housing market to suffer a drop by now
I was wrong
The Government is keeping the whole economy on life support for now
How many businesses will survive a bad Dec ??
One thing is for certain ,in the future we will all be living a new normal .
Not sure what that will be but it will be different to what we are used to

You have a split economy. For some it's a disaster, some no change, and some have never done better. How that balances out post Covid is anyone's guess.

lindtee

Is it just me or has the property market in Cork gone completely mad. Everything decent seems to be going for 20k to 50k over what similar properties have gone for over the past 12-18 months . Anything in my price range is going for way above it. What is going on?

beauf

lindtee wrote: »

Is it just me or has the property market in Cork gone completely mad. Everything decent seems to be going for 20k to 50k over what similar properties have gone for over the past 12-18 months . Anything in my price range is going for way above it. What is going on?

...Supply shortage... cash flush buyers...

PropQueries

beauf wrote: »

You have a split economy. For some it's a disaster, some no change, and some have never done better. How that balances out post Covid is anyone's guess.

Why is everyone acting like there’s been no falls in the property market. IPUT just knocked 20% off the value of their Grafton street properties. Glenveagh knocked 20% off the asking prices for their residential units. Rents are down for apartments by at least 20% in many areas Dublin on Daft.ie and they still can’t shift them.

It’s only been 9 months since lockdown so to me that’s fairly significant movements in values and rents in a very short period of time.

Falls like that normally take 2-3 years minimum.

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Why is everyone acting like there’s been no falls in the property market. IPUT just knocked 20% off the value of their Grafton street properties. Glenveagh knocked 20% off the asking prices for their residential units. Rents are down for apartments by at least 20% in many areas Dublin on Daft.ie and they still can’t shift them.

It’s only been 9 months since lockdown so to me that’s fairly significant movements in values and rents in a very short period of time.

Falls like that normally take 2-3 years minimum.

Em, because in terms of the residential property price index there haven't been any falls in the property market?

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

Why is everyone acting like there’s been no falls in the property market. IPUT just knocked 20% off the value of their Grafton street properties. Glenveagh knocked 20% off the asking prices for their residential units. Rents are down for apartments by at least 20% in many areas Dublin on Daft.ie and they still can’t shift them.

It’s only been 9 months since lockdown so to me that’s fairly significant movements in values and rents in a very short period of time.

Falls like that normally take 2-3 years minimum.

Glenveagh reduced the price of some properties in one of their developments.

thefridge2006

PropQueries wrote: »

Even if all the existing staff refuse WFH, many newer hires over the next few years will most likely gladly avail of such an option if it results in them avoiding higher rents in the cities.

Less young workers starting in our cities equals less demand for housing (renting or buying) in our cities 5 years down the road.

This could actually benefit the Gov. I've heard of COs on minimum wage having to turn down a job in Dublin because they cant afford to take it.

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

1. Never said full time. I’m assuming progression to one or two day weeks in the next few years. Hence the discussion on commuting times to the various university cities.

2. Have never once proclaimed any immediate housing crash. I’ve always been very consistent that based on demand/supply dynamics, I believe house prices in Dublin will be worth at most c.50% of today’s values in 5 to 10 years time. I fully understand the lag effect and illiquid nature of property.

5-10 years lag effect, to what? where you found out such theories, haven't seen this happening in previous crisis.
If there is recovery in economy and unemployment for 2021-2022? it should result in property recovery in 2030?

TheSheriff

So just to update any *new* readers of this thread/forum who will come here for the expert knowledge, the imminent Irish property crash which was due in 2018, then 2019, then Feb, March, April, May June 2020, then 2021-2022 is now set to happen in approximately 10 years.

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

Em, because in terms of the residential property price index there haven't been any falls in the property market?

Because. The. Property. Price. Index. today represents primarily the sales that went sale agreed pre-covid. Even that famous Irish YouTube property guy Fleming Real Estate that a few here have linked to said in a YouTube video posted here some time ago.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

Why is everyone acting like there’s been no falls in the property market. IPUT just knocked 20% off the value of their Grafton street properties. Glenveagh knocked 20% off the asking prices for their residential units. Rents are down for apartments by at least 20% in many areas Dublin on Daft.ie and they still can’t shift them.

It’s only been 9 months since lockdown so to me that’s fairly significant movements in values and rents in a very short period of time.

Falls like that normally take 2-3 years minimum.

What about the CSO reports? So you actually don’t have any evidence as usual, just some lies sprinkled with a few selectively selected lines from articles.
There definitely will be decreases but I fail to understand why you lie to try and support your point.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

5-10 years lag effect, to what? where you found out such theories, haven't seen this happening in previous crisis.
If there is recovery in economy and unemployment for 2021-2022? it should result in property recovery in 2030?

Because this time really is different

PropQueries

awec wrote: »

Glenveagh reduced the price of some properties in one of their developments.

“House builder Glenveagh Properties is cutting prices on hundreds of luxury homes in Dublin and Wicklow in a sign of weak demand at the top end of the market.”

Link here: https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html

TheSheriff

PropQueries wrote: »

Because. The. Property. Price. Index. today represents primarily the sales that went sale agreed pre-covid. Even that famous Irish YouTube property guy Fleming Real Estate that a few here have linked to said in a YouTube video posted here some time ago.

I think this argument is getting considerably weaker as time goes on.... 9 months and still not on the register?

Almost all houses we've bid on since lockdown started in March have now appeared on the register (bar two which have remained sale agreed).

Your clutching at straws. Again.

awec

PropQueries wrote: »

“House builder Glenveagh Properties is cutting prices on hundreds of luxury homes in Dublin and Wicklow in a sign of weak demand at the top end of the market.”

Link here: https://m.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html

Sorry, some properties in two of it's developments.

Still a far cry from what you insinuated.

TheSheriff

awec wrote: »

Sorry, some properties in two of it's developments.

Still a far cry from what you insinuated.

And both developments at the luxury end

Passed Marina Village many times, lovely looking but pushing it in terms of value based on location/proximity to Dublin.

Hubertj

TheSheriff wrote: »

And both developments at the luxury end

Passed Marina Village many times, lovely looking but pushing it in terms of value based on location/proximity to Dublin.

€500k for a 1 bed....
Mad stuff altogether