Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

thefridge2006

Surprise €930m corporation tax shortfall sends public finances further into red

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/surprise-930m-corporation-tax-shortfall-sends-public-finances-further-into-red-1.4399051

How long can they keep the finger in the Dyke?

L1011

Hubertj wrote: »

And that has what to do with Kerry? Do you now choose where to go to university based on where you live? As for your comment about the first 3 months of college you are clueless. More idiotic by the day.

Take whatever personal arguments you have with PropQueries to PM, if you wish, but drop them here

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

Because this time really is different

Ofcourse its different, and that's why I asked about known 5-10 years lag effect, what does it mean, where do you learn this. Not sure from which event we are counting now, is it still Covid.

PropQueries

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Surprise €930m corporation tax shortfall sends public finances further into red

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/surprise-930m-corporation-tax-shortfall-sends-public-finances-further-into-red-1.4399051

How long can they keep the finger in the Dyke?

Easy in. Easy out. They don’t seem to give much information on why it fell below projections though. Anyone involved in this area who can shed some light on it?

enricoh

PropQueries wrote: »

If they're only commuting one or two days a week, I would assume the parents might be only too happy to loan them the family car for the day.

But just for the Dublin posters who haven't travelled outside Dublin since the 1980s. The trip up to Dublin is no longer the endurance test it once was. From Galway City in the West of the country to Dublin City in the East of the country it's just over a 2 hour car journey. We're a tiny country and now all that investment in our road network over the past 30 years will finally pay dividends.

Why bother propquerys, next it'll be students from the aran islands or somewhere more remote!

Idbatterim

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Surprise €930m corporation tax shortfall sends public finances further into red

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/surprise-930m-corporation-tax-shortfall-sends-public-finances-further-into-red-1.4399051

How long can they keep the finger in the Dyke?

the next thing I heard being discussed, is public sector pay increases! They deferred raising the pension age again this year, think that cost another several hundred million. 350 a week , if you were earning E50 a week before covid! I am sure the government will blame Mr Covid for the screwed financial situation though, LOL!

Bubbaclaus

PropQueries wrote: »

Easy in. Easy out. They don’t seem to give much information on why it fell below projections though. Anyone involved in this area who can shed some light on it?

I believe Revenue put in a large provision against it for the CRSS scheme. So not necessarily that much less came in, it's just that they are anticipating a lot of it being paid back out to businesses.

thefridge2006

Idbatterim wrote: »

the next thing I heard being discussed, is public sector pay increases! They deferred raising the pension age again this year, think that cost another several hundred million. 350 a week , if you were earning E50 a week before covid! I am sure the government will blame Mr Covid for the screwed financial situation though, LOL!

I know a young lad who did a night here and a night there in the local boozer..... after getting a nice pay increase with the covid payment hes after buying a nice 52 in Tv today haha …sure why not, free cash

Idbatterim

thefridge2006 wrote: »

I know a young lad who did a night here and a night there in the local boozer..... after getting a nice pay increase with the covid payment hes after buying a nice 52 in Tv today haha …sure why not, free cash

yeah, seriously, you could probably buy a non main brand tv new 52 inch tv with E350 now...

thefridge2006

Outlook for businesses at weakest point in five months

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/outlook-for-businesses-at-weakest-point-in-five-months-1.4399286

but house prices wont be affected .....:pac:

This will gather momentum... you will find over the next few months about how severe and bleak the outcome of Covid will have on this country.

we are in for a rocky ride and of course house prices will be seriously affected as will ever other aspect of society. The length of life support for the economy is anyone's guess

Idbatterim

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Outlook for businesses at weakest point in five months

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/outlook-for-businesses-at-weakest-point-in-five-months-1.4399286

but house prices wont be affected .....:pac:

they may well be, I just dont think it is happening or will happen, anywhere near as quick as some believed. I mean it takes time for **** to hit the fan, like the last bust, it didnt just happen over night. We are now borrowing a ton and in a fake "reality"... lets see how long this goes on and how much they can actually borrow, before the markets start zoning in on weaker countries again...

I actually think it is like seeing is believing, even if all the evidence points to a potential economic **** show, people wont actually believe it until they see it, maybe that is is a good thing in a way, because it somewhat stops a self fulfilling prophecy, if the masses think all will be ok and we can go on like this... I doubt we can...

brisan

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Surprise €930m corporation tax shortfall sends public finances further into red

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/surprise-930m-corporation-tax-shortfall-sends-public-finances-further-into-red-1.4399051

How long can they keep the finger in the Dyke?

When the life support is removed what happens ?
Will the magic money tree be still bearing fruit to borrow to build houses
I do not see this ending well for FFG

Billythekid19

lindtee wrote: »

Is it just me or has the property market in Cork gone completely mad. Everything decent seems to be going for 20k to 50k over what similar properties have gone for over the past 12-18 months . Anything in my price range is going for way above it. What is going on?

Biggest issue is uncertainty. A lot of people have saved a small fortune over the last 9 months and with the 10% htb scheme its never been more attractive for ftb's to enter the property market. On the other hand it would be a very risky time for a seller to put their house for sale in this climate as there's no guarantee a bank would lend (were they on covid payment/ will they have a job in 6 -12 months) when looking for a new house by the time their own property went sale agreed.

fliball123

Idbatterim wrote: »

they may well be, I just dont think it is happening or will happen, anywhere near as quick as some believed. I mean it takes time for **** to hit the fan, like the last bust, it didnt just happen over night. We are now borrowing a ton and in a fake "reality"... lets see how long this goes on and how much they can actually borrow, before the markets start zoning in on weaker countries again...

I actually think it is like seeing is believing, even if all the evidence points to a potential economic **** show, people wont actually believe it until they see it, maybe that is is a good thing in a way, because it somewhat stops a self fulfilling prophecy, if the masses think all will be ok and we can go on like this... I doubt we can...

If your comparing to last crash which I think is mad as its completely different. Then lets do it

We had to borrow over 200billion in the 08 crash This one its estimated to be 30/40 billion.

After 9 months of the last crash property had dropped significantly and everyone knew that prices were going down. This is not the same with this one.

We had an oversupply of decent housing in areas desirable to live in after the 08 crash. This is definitely not the same, supply is dwindling on a daily basis.

The government has forced businesses to close this crash , this was not the case in 08,

There was no liquidity in the 08 crash this is not the same this time.

Banks in 08 were in big trouble financially , this time I dont see any banks hitting the wall

There are 6 big differences do I need to go on comparing to the last crash or can we all just agree that trying to compare today with 2008 is not a good way of measuring how things are now?

6541

I read an article on BBC Northern Ireland website

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-54795055

Basically it says that Sinn Fein has initiated local authority house building in the North.

Idbatterim

fliball123 wrote: »

If your comparing to last crash which I think is mad as its completely different. Then lets do it

We had to borrow over 200billion in the 08 crash This one its estimated to be 30/40 billion.

After 9 months of the last crash property had dropped significantly and everyone knew that prices were going down. This is not the same with this one.

We had an oversupply of decent housing in areas desirable to live in after the 08 crash. This is definitely not the same, supply is dwindling on a daily basis.

The government has forced businesses to close this crash , this was not the case in 08,

There was no liquidity in the 08 crash this is not the same this time.

Banks in 08 were in big trouble financially , this time I dont see any banks hitting the wall

There are 6 big differences do I need to go on comparing to the last crash or can we all just agree that trying to compare today with 2008 is not a good way of measuring how things are now?

Last crash we had virtually no mational debt. There is zero appetite for austerity now, understandably. All of this about huge amount of debt being sustainable, it might be, as long as interest rates are near zero! Supply is very limited, look ive made argumemts the last few days, over why I understand prices not decreasing or even increasing, I think that may well be the case for the next year or two.

I think we often think, this time it will be different, huma behaviour always repeats itself. Also the very wealthy have become vastly richer since covid hit, if its in the financial interests of those behind the scenes running things, to start pulling strings to use a crisis which they can bring about and control , to make more money, they will do so.

I dont think ireland learned a valuable lesson from the last crash, run the economy prudently and we wont be at the mercies of the bondmarket and troika again. I believe the seeds are being sewn, for the next downfall...

Also of the 200 billiob, wouldnt a chunck of that have been recouped through nama?

Hubertj

Idbatterim wrote: »

Last crash we had virtually no mational debt. There is zero appetite for austerity now, understandably. All of this about huge amount of debt being sustainable, it might be, as long as interest rates are near zero! Supply is very limited, look ive made argumemts the last few days, over why I understand prices not decreasing or even increasing, I think that may well be the case for the next year or two.

I think we often think, this time it will be different, huma behaviour always repeats itself. Also the very wealthy have become vastly richer since covid hit, if its in the financial interests of those behind the scenes running things, to start pulling strings to use a crisis which they can bring about and control , to make more money, they will do so.

I dont think ireland learned a valuable lesson from the last crash, run the economy prudently and we wont be at the mercies of the bondmarket and troika again. I believe the seeds are being sewn, for the next downfall...

some good points here..... Populism forced the government into some situations the last few years..... trade union demands...... rise of the left..... people look a the the US political system and laugh.... I think we have it far worse here. FF FG are bad enough but we then start to vote on SF - terrorists / socialists.... what could possibly go wrong

Marius34

Idbatterim wrote: »

Last crash we had virtually no mational debt. There is zero appetite for austerity now, understandably. All of this about huge amount of debt being sustainable, it might be, as long as interest rates are near zero! Supply is very limited, look ive made argumemts the last few days, over why I understand prices not decreasing or even increasing, I think that may well be the case for the next year or two.

I think we often think, this time it will be different, huma behaviour always repeats itself. Also the very wealthy have become vastly richer since covid hit, if its in the financial interests of those behind the scenes running things, to start pulling strings to use a crisis which they can bring about and control , to make more money, they will do so.

I dont think ireland learned a valuable lesson from the last crash, run the economy prudently and we wont be at the mercies of the bondmarket and troika again. I believe the seeds are being sewn, for the next downfall...

Also of the 200 billiob, wouldnt a chunck of that have been recouped through nama?

1) I think we often think, this time it will be different, huma behaviour always repeats itself
2) Supply is very limited, look ive made argumemts the last few days, over why I understand prices not decreasing or even increasing, I think that may well be the case for the next year or two.

So it's different this time.

PropQueries

<SNIP>

Idbatterim

Marius34 wrote: »

1) I think we often think, this time it will be different, huma behaviour always repeats itself
2) Supply is very limited, look ive made argumemts the last few days, over why I understand prices not decreasing or even increasing, I think that may well be the case for the next year or two.

So it's different this time.

I am saying, I am trying to see it from both sides. I dont have a vested interest in prices rising or falling. Nobody knows how this will pan out. the initial thoughts of many, that covid > **** will hit the immediate fan, hasnt played out. Massive lack of supply, many people actually better off financially etc...

What is the point of the post above? we wont be having another housing crash ever?

I love how after the event, many come out of the woodwork, I am sure if there was a poll at the start of the virus, you would have foreseen prices being flat or maybe even increasing, of course you would :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Marius34

Idbatterim wrote: »

I am saying, I am trying to see it from both sides. I dont have a vested interest in prices rising or falling. Nobody knows how this will pan out. the initial thoughts of many, that covid > **** will hit the immediate fan, hasnt played out. Massive lack of supply, many people actually better off financially etc...

What is the point of the post above? we wont be having another housing crash ever?

I love how after the event, many come out of the woodwork, I am sure if there was a poll at the start of the virus, you would have foreseen prices being flat or maybe even increasing, of course you would :rolleyes::rolleyes:

surely we may have another housing crisis, with price crash, maybe in 5,10,20 or 30 years, who knows... The point of above post was that it's obvious that this time is very different from previous crisis. Anyone who thought that this crisis will be different from previous, were right.

My forecast at the start of the crisis was -3-5% decrease in property price. Some were saying that I'm EA, if I don't see a property price crash.

Idbatterim

Marius34 wrote: »

surely we may have another housing crisis. The point of above post was that it's obvious that this time is very different from previous crisis. Anyone who thought that this crisis will be different from previous, were right.

My forecast at the start of the crisis was -3-5% decrease in property price. Some were saying that I'm EA, if I don't see a property price crash.

I agree, in the short term I agree its unlikely. Its funny with economies, everything can look ok, then like a strong tree snapped like a match in a storm, what looked solid etc, is no more. I just wouldnt take anything foregranted...

nerrad01

Idbatterim wrote: »

I agree, in the short term I agree its unlikely. Its funny with economies, everything can look ok, then like a strong tree snapped like a match in a storm, what looked solid etc, is no more. I just wouldnt take anything foregranted...

either way the housing market is going to remain extremely dysfunctional for the foreseeable future.

Marius34

Idbatterim wrote: »

I agree, in the short term I agree its unlikely. Its funny with economies, everything can look ok, then like a strong tree snapped like a match in a storm, what looked solid etc, is no more. I just wouldnt take anything foregranted...

Nothing can be taken for granted planning a forecast.
We estimate on what we know. There may be WW3, there may be virus stronger than Covid, we don't know that, thus would make not much sense to add it to estimates.
We know one thing, this crisis is different from 2008 credit crisis. Supply/Demands are very different as well.

PropQueries

Marius34 wrote: »

Nothing can be taken for granted planning a forecast.
We estimate on what we know. There may be WW3, there may be virus stronger than Covid, we don't know that, thus would make not much sense to add it to estimates.
We know one thing, this crisis is different from 2008 credit crisis. Supply/Demands are very different as well.

I think both the above (if they did occur) would have a relatively short-term impact on the property market. However, WFH is a complete unprecedented game-changer and is the equivalent of the change-over from horse and cart to the motor car over a hundred years ago (IMO). It's a long-term, permanent and structural change.

The difference with WFH this time is that unlike previous initiatives to get people working from home, now most people have fast broadband and every home in the country will be connected up to super fast broadband within 5 years. Another difference is that it has now been tried and tested on a massive scale and most service based companies and the Government realise it actually can and does work.

Even today, the commercial director of Microsoft Ireland stated that “People talk about this Covid-related remote working being something exceptional and that we’ll soon return to normal. But I don’t think that we’re going back to what we used to regard as being normal.”

To me, this explains why the big domestic and international residential property investors have been falling over themselves in recent months to lock in the long-term lease agreements that the Government is currently offering. They realise the game is up and if they don't lock in these leases now, they will be left to vagaries of the market.

I would believe that the cash available for these long-term lease agreements may be fully allocated by the end of the year and landlords next year may be completely reliant on the private rental market for demand and from early next year, we will see rents tumble even further than the at least c. 20% drops we have already seen in apartments in many areas of Dublin over the past several months.

Flyin Irishman

PropQueries wrote: »

I think both the above (if they did occur) would have a relatively short-term impact on the property market.

Did you just say that a global nuclear war would have a "short-term" impact on the property market? I assume you mean in the sense that it would only take a very short amount of time for society as a whole, and therefore the concept of a property market, to collapse entirely?

nerrad01

gotta love this thread, eventually got on to nuclear holocaust as a cause of house prices collapsing

Cyrus

there might be places grimmer than this but not many

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/114-lower-rathmines-road-rathmines-dublin-6/4239105

nerrad01

Cyrus wrote: »

there might be places grimmer than this but not many

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/114-lower-rathmines-road-rathmines-dublin-6/4239105

10 illegal bedsits in one property! can only imagine how much money that landlord has made over the years

Marius34

PropQueries wrote: »

However, WFH is a complete unprecedented game-changer and is the equivalent of the change-over from horse and cart to the motor car over a hundred years ago (IMO). It's a long-term, permanent and structural change.

The difference with WFH this time is that unlike previous initiatives to get people working from home, now most people have fast broadband and every home in the country will be connected up to super fast broadband within 5 years. Another difference is that it has now been tried and tested on a massive scale and most service based companies and the Government realise it actually can and does work.

If that's a case, I assume its good time to buy house in Wexford and other towns? before Dublin people starts to move and grab houses in towns?