Irish Property Market 2020 Part 2

PropQueries

TheSheriff wrote: »

I think PropQueries this post reflects how out of touch you are with the modern property buyer, and it obviously taints your arguments, and goes towards explaining alot of your previous posts to be honest i.e your idea that people are only in Dublin because they are forced too.

This is really not the case for many, sure for some it is, but for alot Dublin is somewhere people choose to live, rather than being forced too.

You remind me of one of my friends from back home in rural ireland, every Christmas I see him for a pint in the local and it's always the same Q, 'when will you be leaving Dublin and moving home", to which the response is always the same, "never". There is this assumption that I am only in Dublin because of my job, which I'm not, I actually like living here.

We could both work from home for the foreseeable I say, we have a budget to purchase a house of anywhere up to 550k, maybe more as to be honest we've done quite well from all this lockdown, and guess what, we actually want to live in Dublin and not buy a mansion in Mullingar.

Your ideas, which inform your position on the property market, are fundamentally wrong.

You've been equally called out on the propertypin for this by many posters, do you ever think that maybe your opinion is not the correct one ?

100% agree with your point. But, I’m more talking about the people who were forced to live in Dublin pre-WFH and there are many of them.

When I first come to Dublin many years ago to go to university, it was my first time here and I can honestly say, while I love it now, I wouldn’t have missed it if I never got the chance to live here.

If university does primarily move online (outside of one or two days a week on campus) and WFH does become an option (outside of two or three days a week in the office), they’re not going to miss living here because they will never have experienced it.

I know many who work in London and they would never consider moving to Dublin for the exact same reasons we would never consider moving from Dublin to Mullingar.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

100% agree with your point. But, I’m more talking about the people who were forced to live in Dublin pre-WFH and there are many of them.

When I first come to Dublin many years ago to go to university, it was my first time here and I can honestly say, while I love it now, I wouldn’t have missed it if I never got the chance to live here.

If university does primarily move online (outside of one or two days a week on campus) and WFH does become an option (outside of two or three days a week in the office), they’re not going to miss living here because they will never have experienced it.

I know many who work in London and they would never consider moving to Dublin for the exact same reasons we would never consider moving from Dublin to Mullingar.

With Brexit there will be a lot more people leaving London for Dublin rather than vice versa

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

With Brexit there will be a lot more people leaving London for Dublin rather than vice versa

This is from RTÉ in July 2019:

“Ms Lorigan said an anticipated boost in financial services positions from UK based firms moving operations here hadn't materialised to the extent that might have been expected.

We saw some banks moving offices but not the boost that was expected at all. Anecdotally, a number of jobs that did migrate to Dublin were filled from with the [bank's] network so there was no net gain for banking jobs here."

Link to RTÉ article here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0722/1064429-job-vacancies-drop-brexit/

If anything, I would believe a hard Brexit (unlikely in my opinion) would result in Dublin jobs moving to the UK rather than the other way around. A lot of the sales for Irish based domestic and multinational companies are in the U.K.

For example, one fifth of the revenues of both Google and Facebook in the whole EMEA region are from the UK.

Timing belt

PropQueries wrote: »

This is from RTÉ in July 2019:

“Ms Lorigan said an anticipated boost in financial services positions from UK based firms moving operations here hadn't materialised to the extent that might have been expected.

We saw some banks moving offices but not the boost that was expected at all. Anecdotally, a number of jobs that did migrate to Dublin were filled from with the [bank's] network so there was no net gain for banking jobs here."

Link to RTÉ article here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0722/1064429-job-vacancies-drop-brexit/

If anything, I would believe a hard Brexit (unlikely in my opinion) would result in Dublin jobs moving to the UK rather than the other way around. A lot of the sales for Irish based domestic and multinational companies are in the U.K.

For example, one fifth of the revenues of both Google and Facebook in the whole EMEA region are from the UK.

I thought you said previously you did not think there would be a hard Brexit are you changing your mind now as all your other rubbish has not materialised and it’s your last hope for a house price crash. You keep grasping at straws.. there are two main things that can move the dial on irish property prices.
1) unemployment or a drop in income across the board
2) a significant increase in interest rates

Interest rates are not going to rise significantly until we start seeing the economy growing and have inflation over 3% for a year. That doesn’t look likely in the short term but is a risk in the medium term if ECB over cooks the economy.

Unemployment will hit due to covid it but it will be in certain sectors of the economy and not across the board unless there is a financial crisis which seems unlikely with the fed ECB buying all the debt and pumping the market with liquidity. If anything it will lead to a increase in property price(see article I posted earlier from the ECB today) due to the banks trying to loan out the excess liquidity rather than loosing money on it by buying gov debt with a negative yield or placing with the ECB at negative rates.

PropQueries

Timing belt wrote: »

I thought you said previously you did not think there would be a hard Brexit are you changing your mind now as all your other rubbish has not materialised and it’s your last hope for a house price crash. You keep grasping at straws.. there are two main things that can move the dial on irish property prices.
1) unemployment or a drop in income across the board
2) a significant increase in interest rates

Interest rates are not going to rise significantly until we start seeing the economy growing and have inflation over 3% for a year. That doesn’t look likely in the short term but is a risk in the medium term if ECB over cooks the economy.

Unemployment will hit due to covid it but it will be in certain sectors of the economy and not across the board unless there is a financial crisis which seems unlikely with the fed ECB buying all the debt and pumping the market with liquidity. If anything it will lead to a increase in property price(see article I posted earlier from the ECB today) due to the banks trying to loan out the excess liquidity rather than loosing money on it by buying gov debt with a negative yield or placing with the ECB at negative rates.

Read my post again “unlikely in my opinion”. It was in reply to the poster who believes we’re getting lots of jobs from a hard Brexit.

And of course my predictions haven’t materialised. I’ve been fairly consistent on my 5-10 year timeframe throughout all my arguments.

Having said that, I’m very surprised by the c.20% drop in apartment rents in many areas of Dunlin, the 20% drop in valuations IPUT placed on their Grafton Street properties and Glenveagh dropping prices for hundreds of their properties by c. 20% all over Dublin.

Such drops normally take 2 to 3 years so maybe my 50% fall prediction may happen a lot sooner than my current prediction of between 2025-2030?

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

This is from RTÉ in July 2019:

“Ms Lorigan said an anticipated boost in financial services positions from UK based firms moving operations here hadn't materialised to the extent that might have been expected.

We saw some banks moving offices but not the boost that was expected at all. Anecdotally, a number of jobs that did migrate to Dublin were filled from with the [bank's] network so there was no net gain for banking jobs here."

Link to RTÉ article here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0722/1064429-job-vacancies-drop-brexit/

If anything, I would believe a hard Brexit (unlikely in my opinion) would result in Dublin jobs moving to the UK rather than the other way around. A lot of the sales for Irish based domestic and multinational companies are in the U.K.

For example, one fifth of the revenues of both Google and Facebook in the whole EMEA region are from the UK.

I make Google’s uk revenue is closer about 10%-13% of EMEA. Roughly £5bn out of $50ish in 2019. But don’t let facts get in the way of whatever nonsense you’re spouting this evening.

PropQueries

Hubertj wrote: »

I make Google’s uk revenue is closer about 10%-13% of EMEA. Roughly £5bn out of $50ish in 2019. But don’t let facts get in the way of whatever nonsense you’re spouting this evening.

The only figures I could find were from Q1 2017 when $2 Billion of the $8 Billion from EMEA revenues come from the U.K. That’s over a fifth I think?

Link here: https://www.vox.com/2017/4/29/15479932/alphabet-revenue-geography

Maybe you have more up to date figures? Either way the UK is a very very important market (Probably one of the most important) for most Irish and multinational exporters.

Smouse156

Just for people expecting price drops/rises in new builds, a simple way to see if it’s going to happen, especially in a flat market is to look at the PPR and see how they are selling. Don’t believe any EA nonsense such as X many sale agreed which wildly differs from the PPR or what they claim have sold in the papers. Only go with the facts (PPR sales)!

Small builders cannot afford to let units sit for years due to expensive finance costs, however, large ones (Cairn) can.

As a few practical examples, Clay Farm Leopardstown will not see any reductions in house prices due to the strong sales.

Expensive apartment schemes and expensive homes that have all had poor sales this year and are very likely to see reductions (Marianella, Brighton Wood, Brookfield Malahide). Daneswell place dropped prices 20% after a year of no sales and now over half the houses have sold.

Newly launched schemes will take longer to see drops or rises as the builder will wait and see for a year at least.

The drops will be likely in the high >500k range and the price rises in the “Help The Brickie” sub 500k new builds. Especially in commuter counties.

Hubertj

PropQueries wrote: »

The only figures I could find were from Q1 2017 when $2 Billion of the $8 Billion from EMEA revenues come from the U.K. That’s over a fifth I think?

Link here: https://www.vox.com/2017/4/29/15479932/alphabet-revenue-geography

Maybe you have more up to date figures? Either way the UK is a very very important market (Probably one of the most important) for most Irish and multinational exporters.

https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/2019Q4_alphabet_earnings_release.pdf?cache=79552b8

Easy to find the information simply by googling.

Apologies all, way off topic...

PropQueries

Smouse156 wrote: »

Just for people expecting price drops/rises in new builds, a simple way to see if it’s going to happen, especially in a flat market is to look at the PPR and see how they are selling. Don’t believe any EA nonsense such as X many sale agreed which wildly differs from the PPR or what they claim have sold in the papers. Only go with the facts (PPR sales)!

Small builders cannot afford to let units sit for years due to expensive finance costs, however, large ones (Cairn) can.

As a few practical examples, Clay Farm Leopardstown will not see any reductions in house prices due to the strong sales.

Expensive apartment schemes and expensive homes that have all had poor sales this year and are very likely to see reductions (Marianella, Brighton Wood, Brookfield Malahide). Daneswell place dropped prices 20% after a year of no sales and now over half the houses have sold.

Newly launched schemes will take longer to see drops or rises as the builder will wait and see for a year at least.

The drops will be likely in the high >500k range and the price rises in the “Help The Brickie” sub 500k new builds. Especially in commuter counties.

Good points on if they’re selling or not.

But wouldn’t you agree the PPR most likely represent sales that went sale agreed several months ago and have no bearing on what houses are actually really selling for today?

The PPR will be well behind the curve as prices are falling and be well behind the curve should prices ever begin to rise again.

Smouse156

PropQueries wrote: »

Good points on if they’re selling or not.

But wouldn’t you agree the PPR most likely represent sales that went sale agreed several months ago and have no bearing on what houses are actually really selling for today?

The PPR will be well behind the curve as prices are falling and be well behind the curve should prices ever begin to rise again.

Most sales on the PPR are recorded within 2-4 months of sale. Generally the earlier. So it’s a lagged indicator yes but not by much. If a scheme launched last year (e.g Brookfield Malahide) yet has only had 4 sales in an estate of 80 houses then it’s clear it’s struggling to achieve the asking prices.

thefridge2006

Cyrus wrote: »

every one i know at a senior level across several different industries has expressed a desire to get their workforce back to the office, and in a lot of cases their staff have expressed that same desire.

there will be increased flexibility in the future for sure, but a central office location that people are obliged to attend at least 3 days a week will be a feature.

Microsoft research predicts a permanent Irish office exodus

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/microsoft-research-predicts-a-permanent-irish-office-exodus-39704093.html

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Good points on if they’re selling or not.

But wouldn’t you agree the PPR most likely represent sales that went sale agreed several months ago and have no bearing on what houses are actually really selling for today?

The PPR will be well behind the curve as prices are falling and be well behind the curve should prices ever begin to rise again.

The flaw in your theory is if this was the case then asking prices would be right down and they are not. Also there is no way the PPR is 9 months behind thats how long we are living with COVID. Your really hopping up and down over there looking for a price drop aren't you

Cyrus

thefridge2006 wrote: »

Microsoft research predicts a permanent Irish office exodus

https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/microsoft-research-predicts-a-permanent-irish-office-exodus-39704093.html

Either you haven’t read what you linked or you don’t understand it .

PropQueries

Smouse156 wrote: »

Most sales on the PPR are recorded within 2-4 months of sale. Generally the earlier. So it’s a lagged indicator yes but not by much. If a scheme launched last year (e.g Brookfield Malahide) yet has only had 4 sales in an estate of 80 houses then it’s clear it’s struggling to achieve the asking prices.

And we're still expected to build an additional c. 20,000 homes this year:

"Housing completions are expected to reach 20,000 this year, Goodbody analysts have predicted, as the sector bounced back from the construction shutdown triggered by Covid-19."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housing-completions-to-reach-20-000-but-analysts-warn-of-future-impact-1.4400965

How long does an estate have to remain almost empty before it's defined as a ghost estate? Many of the new housing/apartment schemes throughout Dublin/Wicklow/Kildare built over the past 24 months have a significant number of vacant units.

Smouse156

PropQueries wrote: »

And we're still expected to build an additional c. 20,000 homes this year:

"Housing completions are expected to reach 20,000 this year, Goodbody analysts have predicted, as the sector bounced back from the construction shutdown triggered by Covid-19."

Link to Irish Times article here: https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/housing-completions-to-reach-20-000-but-analysts-warn-of-future-impact-1.4400965

How long does an estate have to remain almost empty before it's defined as a ghost estate? Many units in the new housing/apartment schemes throughout Dublin/Wicklow/Kildare built the past 24 months have a significant number of vacant units.

Well I expect as long as the company is solvent, if the sales are poor they’ll just drop the price!

My post was to highlight where to expect discounts and where not to or expect rises

PropQueries

Smouse156 wrote: »

Well I expect as long as the company is solvent, if the sales are poor they’ll just drop the price!

My post was to highlight where to expect discounts and where not to or expect rises

I suppose it takes a bit of time before a receiver is called in while the financiers go through their options. One developer in Foxrock went into receivership last April, so will be interesting to see how many more go down that route in the near future. The funder also closed up shop too to new business.

Link here: https://dublininquirer.com/2020/09/23/in-foxrock-work-continues-on-apartments-after-the-developer-and-property-finance-company-close-down

Billythekid19

Smouse156 wrote: »

Just for people expecting price drops/rises in new builds, a simple way to see if it’s going to happen, especially in a flat market is to look at the PPR and see how they are selling. Don’t believe any EA nonsense such as X many sale agreed which wildly differs from the PPR or what they claim have sold in the papers. Only go with the facts (PPR sales)!

Small builders cannot afford to let units sit for years due to expensive finance costs, however, large ones (Cairn) can.

As a few practical examples, Clay Farm Leopardstown will not see any reductions in house prices due to the strong sales.

Expensive apartment schemes and expensive homes that have all had poor sales this year and are very likely to see reductions (Marianella, Brighton Wood, Brookfield Malahide). Daneswell place dropped prices 20% after a year of no sales and now over half the houses have sold.

Newly launched schemes will take longer to see drops or rises as the builder will wait and see for a year at least.

The drops will be likely in the high >500k range and the price rises in the “Help The Brickie” sub 500k new builds. Especially in commuter counties.

Have been following the prices of new builds in cork city.
One in particular has increased 10 grand since April. Just happens to be the same amount the HTB scheme has increased by, it really sums up our kip of a country that our government has incentivised ftb's to further line the pockets of developers. The other knock on effect of a 10% htb is that ftb's will no longer need to save for a deposit so at least wont have to move home to save and in the process keeping landlords happy with rental income.

fliball123

Billythekid19 wrote: »

Have been following the prices of new builds in cork city.
One in particular has increased 10 grand since April. Just happens to be the same amount the HTB scheme has increased by, it really sums up our kip of a country that our government has incentivised ftb's to further line the pockets of developers. The other knock on effect of a 10% htb is that ftb's will no longer need to save for a deposit so at least wont have to move home to save and in the process keeping landlords happy with rental income.

If they sell then the seller was right to up them no point pi$$ing and moaning about it. This was flagged when the HTB was increased but everyone was saying no way prices will increase due the pandemic

PropQueries

Smouse156 wrote: »

Just for people expecting price drops/rises in new builds, a simple way to see if it’s going to happen, especially in a flat market is to look at the PPR and see how they are selling. Don’t believe any EA nonsense such as X many sale agreed which wildly differs from the PPR or what they claim have sold in the papers. Only go with the facts (PPR sales)!

Small builders cannot afford to let units sit for years due to expensive finance costs, however, large ones (Cairn) can.

As a few practical examples, Clay Farm Leopardstown will not see any reductions in house prices due to the strong sales.

Expensive apartment schemes and expensive homes that have all had poor sales this year and are very likely to see reductions (Marianella, Brighton Wood, Brookfield Malahide). Daneswell place dropped prices 20% after a year of no sales and now over half the houses have sold.

Newly launched schemes will take longer to see drops or rises as the builder will wait and see for a year at least.

The drops will be likely in the high >500k range and the price rises in the “Help The Brickie” sub 500k new builds. Especially in commuter counties.

The Daneswell Place is a great example of what you said about the hype and made up demand put out by EAs. Back in 05th October 2018 (over 2 years ago now), the following article was in the Irish Independent:

"Despite commanding starting prices of up to €1.25m, Daneswell Place in Glasnevin attracted more than 2,000 house-hunters last weekend. Indeed, the launch of the high-end development - the first in Glasnevin in a quarter of a century - was so busy that gardai were required to direct traffic."

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/new-homes/despite-commanding-starting-prices-of-up-to-125m-these-houses-attracted-more-than-2000-house-hunters-last-weekend-37380680.html

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

The Daneswell Place is a great example of what you said about the hype and made up demand put out by EAs. Back in 05th October 2018 (over 2 years ago now), the following article was in the Irish Independent:

"Despite commanding starting prices of up to €1.25m, Daneswell Place in Glasnevin attracted more than 2,000 house-hunters last weekend. Indeed, the launch of the high-end development - the first in Glasnevin in a quarter of a century - was so busy that gardai were required to direct traffic."

Link to Irish Independent article here: https://www.independent.ie/life/home-garden/new-homes/despite-commanding-starting-prices-of-up-to-125m-these-houses-attracted-more-than-2000-house-hunters-last-weekend-37380680.html

So its made up demand..have you any facts , figures or anything to back this up?

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

So its made up demand..have you any facts , figures or anything to back this up?

Well, over two years later the PPR shows only 13 have been registered as sold.

According to the article from over 2 years ago:

"Fourteen of the 35 four and five-bed three-storey houses that comprise the development's first phase were reserved at the weekend."

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, over two years later the PPR shows only 13 have been registered as sold.

According to the article from over 2 years ago:

"Fourteen of the 35 four and five-bed three-storey houses that comprise the development's first phase were reserved at the weekend."

you do understand that to reserve a house all you need to do is put down a 10k fully refundable deposit, anyone with even a passing interest in one will do this and then take time to consider it.

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well, over two years later the PPR shows only 13 have been registered as sold.

According to the article from over 2 years ago:

"Fourteen of the 35 four and five-bed three-storey houses that comprise the development's first phase were reserved at the weekend."

So your proof of lack of demand is one new development that are clearly over priced not selling and in a price range of in and around 1 million??? REALLY Props will you stop with this its getting silly now. To say there is no demand out there is just a LIE big fat LIE there is demand lots of it. There were numbers out for mortgage approvals in September the numbers are up over 20% year on year. That shows demand. Please stop with one off stupid comparisons to try and prove a point that you don't have any facts or figures for. Putting up lack of demand for houses in a one off development that are going for about 1 million is not proof of lack of supply it shows these houses are over priced and that you are full of sh1t. Link below have at it for some real facts

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-September-2020.pdf

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

So your proof of lack of demand is one new development that are clearly over priced not selling and in a price range of in and around 1 million??? REALLY Props will you stop with this its getting silly now. To say there is no demand out there is just a LIE big fat LIE there is demand lots of it. There were numbers out for mortgage approvals in September the numbers are up over 20% year on year. That shows demand. Please stop with one off stupid comparisons to try and prove a point that you don't have any facts or figures for. Putting up lack of demand for houses in a one off development that are going for about 1 million is not proof of lack of supply it shows these houses are over priced and that you are full of sh1t. Link below have at it for some real facts

https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-September-2020.pdf

Well according to that report, there were mortgage approvals for 2,636 FTB in September. There were also mortgage approvals for 1,191 'mover purchaser'. Their purchases are cancelled out by the homes they leave coming back on the market.

So, that's an increase of 2,636 homes needed to meet the mortgage approval demand for the FTBs in September. And that's assuming no executor sales or any other non-new build homes enter the market. We're building c. 20,000 this year.

Many FTB will also have been renting a home so that also brings their ex-rental back into to market once they make a purchase.

I would conservatively put the effective net demand for homes in Ireland today at less than zero

IAmTheReign

PropQueries wrote: »

This is from RTÉ in July 2019:

“Ms Lorigan said an anticipated boost in financial services positions from UK based firms moving operations here hadn't materialised to the extent that might have been expected.

We saw some banks moving offices but not the boost that was expected at all. Anecdotally, a number of jobs that did migrate to Dublin were filled from with the [bank's] network so there was no net gain for banking jobs here."

Link to RTÉ article here: https://www.rte.ie/news/2019/0722/1064429-job-vacancies-drop-brexit/

If anything, I would believe a hard Brexit (unlikely in my opinion) would result in Dublin jobs moving to the UK rather than the other way around. A lot of the sales for Irish based domestic and multinational companies are in the U.K.

For example, one fifth of the revenues of both Google and Facebook in the whole EMEA region are from the UK.

Not sure why you're quoting an article form a year and a half ago. This is from an article last month.

City firms move £1.2tn and 7,500 jobs out of London - EY

Dublin still among big winners from Brexit exodus by financial services groups

Financial services firms operating in Britain have shifted about 7,500 employees and more than £1.2 trillion (€1.3 trillion) of assets to the European Union ahead of Brexit – with more likely to follow in coming weeks, according to EY.

About 400 relocations were announced in the past month alone, the consulting firm said in a report on Thursday that tracks 222 of the largest financial firms with significant operations in the UK.

Since Britain voted to leave the bloc in 2016, the finance industry has added 2,850 positions in the EU, with Dublin, Luxembourg and Frankfurt seeing the biggest gains.

So thousands of new financial jobs created across the EU, with likely significantly more to follow and Dublin is one of the primary beneficiaries.

PropQueries wrote: »

Having said that, I’m very surprised by the c.20% drop in apartment rents in many areas of Dunlin, the 20% drop in valuations IPUT placed on their Grafton Street properties and Glenveagh dropping prices for hundreds of their properties by c. 20% all over Dublin.

Such drops normally take 2 to 3 years so maybe my 50% fall prediction may happen a lot sooner than my current prediction of between 2025-2030?

Glenveagh have not dropped prices 'for hundreds of their properties by c. 20% all over Dublin'. They dropped prices in two developments, only one of which was in Dublin and consisted of a total of 7 properties on Shrewsbury Road. 7 luxury houses on one street is not hundreds of properties all over Dublin.

Can you please stop posting outdated and incorrect information?

fliball123

PropQueries wrote: »

Well according to that report, there were mortgage approvals for 2,636 FTB in September. There were also mortgage approvals for 1,191 'mover purchaser'.

So, that's a net increase of 1,445 homes needed to meet the mortgage approval demand for the FTBs in September. And that's assuming no executor sales or any other non-new build homes enter the market. We're building c. 20,000 this year.

Many FTB will also have been renting a home so that also brings their ex-rental back into to market once they make a purchase.

Oh my god.

That figure is for September alone, what about the rest of the years demand?? Just going on a rough look at the graph in front of you over 50k had mortgage approval and the majority of these were FTBs so even steering the argument your way and taking a very PropQuery like look at the figures if 25k were FTBs (this is very low looking at the graph) and with your estimated (I reckon it will be less) 20k New houses built, it is still 5k short of what was needed this year up until September. So we still have 1/3 of the year left to see how many more mortgage approvals are seen. Also from your 20k new houses how many of the new houses are set aside for social housing and REITS??

So please as its getting boring proving you wrong over and over so stop and look at the bloody link I gave and stop coming up with a subset of subset to try and prove your argument its getting ridiculous the facts and figures are right in front of you but you wont look at them.

So what we know is
Mortgage approvals is up 20% year on year
Mortgage approvals are up 50% in the last 6 months
Proving Demand is up



https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-September-2020.pdf

PropQueries

IAmTheReign wrote: »

Not sure why you're quoting an article form a year and a half ago. This is from an article last month.

City firms move £1.2tn and 7,500 jobs out of London - EY




So thousands of new financial jobs created across the EU, with likely significantly more to follow and Dublin is one of the primary beneficiaries.



Glenveagh have not dropped prices 'for hundreds of their properties by c. 20% all over Dublin'. They dropped prices in two developments, only one of which was in Dublin and consisted of a total of 7 properties on Shrewsbury Road. 7 luxury houses on one street is not hundreds of properties all over Dublin.

Can you please stop posting outdated and incorrect information?

1. Most of those 7,500 jobs are gong to other cities in the EU e.g. Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt etc.

2. The article link on Glenveagh is from 08th September 2020, so hardly "outdated":

"House builder Glenveagh Properties is cutting prices on hundreds of luxury homes in Dublin and Wicklow in a sign of weak demand at the top end of the market."

Link to Glenveagh article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html

PropQueries

fliball123 wrote: »

Oh my god.

That figure is for September alone, what about the rest of the years demand?? Just going on a rough look at the graph in front of you over 50k had mortgage approval and the majority of these were FTBs so even steering the argument your way and taking a very PropQuery like look at the figures if 25k were FTBs (this is very low looking at the graph) and with your estimated (I reckon it will be less) 20k New houses built, it is still 5k short of what was needed this year up until September. So we still have 1/3 of the year left to see how many more mortgage approvals are seen. Also from your 20k new houses how many of the new houses are set aside for social housing and REITS??

So please as its getting boring proving you wrong over and over so stop and look at the bloody link I gave and stop coming up with a subset of subset to try and prove your argument its getting ridiculous the facts and figures are right in front of you but you wont look at them.

So what we know is
Mortgage approvals is up 20% year on year
Mortgage approvals are up 50% in the last 6 months
Proving Demand is up



https://www.bpfi.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/BPFI-Mortgage-Approvals-Report-September-2020.pdf

I think you would agree that September mortgage approvals would be one of the higher months in the year? You're also assuming no other executor sales or second-hand homes enter the market. Once executor sales and second-hand homes enter the market, the supply of housing entering the market (new-builds plus non-new builds) in September will exceed the mortgage approvals from FTB.

And, that doesn't include the thousands of unsold new build homes from last year just sitting there.

Cyrus

PropQueries wrote: »

1. Most of those 7,500 jobs are gong to other cities in the EU e.g. Paris, Amsterdam, Frankfurt etc.

2. The article link on Glenveagh is from 08th September 2020, so hardly "outdated":

"House builder Glenveagh Properties is cutting prices on hundreds of luxury homes in Dublin and Wicklow in a sign of weak demand at the top end of the market."

Link to Glenveagh article here: https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/glenveagh-cuts-prices-on-luxury-properties-in-dublin-and-wicklow-to-accelerate-sales-39513776.html

yes and if you read it you see only 7 are in dublin, the rest of the cuts are mostly apartments in greystones.